Could High Payouts Be Hurting Your Sports Betting Strategy? Here’s My Opinion!

[20Bet]

Why do most people neglect the mental factor and focus only on finding the best sports betting strategies? Actually, it doesn't matter if you've got skills, if your mental game is not solid... Let me explain why.
Your mental state has to be 1000% mature. You have to understand you’re going to lose, today, tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow. It’s going to happen and you have to accept that.
Sports betting is not about consecutive winnings. It's about the probability of winning more than you lose. It's about having fun, feeling a rush of adrenaline during the game you are watching.
Now, let me share with you my simple tip on how I play: Let’s say Real Madrid plays a weaker team and the odds for them to win are 1.50. That means a $100 bet returns $150, or a net of $50 profit. Most bettors say, “That’s not worth it”. But if Real Madrid wins 80% of the time, the true bet probability is 80%, and not only 66.7%. 
Now compare it to a tight match like Real Madrid against Barcelona, both at 1.90 odds. A $100 bet wins $90. Sounds better, right? Sorry to disappoint you, but your bet is more risky than usual since both teams are strong and we can’t really speculate the winner, it's a 50/50 chance.
My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.
What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?

[Oshosondy]

Real Madrid playing with underdogs can come with a lower odd than 1.5. If Real Madrid is having a good year as usual, you will even see the club given odd of less than 1.1 or 1.2. With what you posted, I only see that you bet like other bettors but betting is very risky and most of the bettors are still losing after betting on strong teams.

[cryptoaddictchie]

My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.

Thats a good strategy too. Always found a better chance to win even the prize arent that of favor since that usually what odds do and lure the players with the odds they give to general public. But sometimes its okay to bet on those to keep winning. Underdog has tight odds but if you trust on how they play then its good. Gotta need to trust.

[Oshosondy]

Thats a good strategy too. Always found a better chance to win even the prize arent that of favor since that usually what odds do and lure the players with the odds they give to general public. But sometimes its okay to bet on those to keep winning. Underdog has tight odds but if you trust on how they play then its good. Gotta need to trust.

But there are some that are not worth going for. Example are odds lower than 1.1 which is not good to go for because I do not think a bettor can go with such odd at least 10 times and not lose which is right to give you the money you are using to make the bet as a return without losing. I go for strong teams and most bettors also go for the strong teams. And with what I posted before, if Real Madrid is playing good, the odd will be far lower than 1.5 in reality.

[Ruttoshi]

What you said in the OP is how I do place my bet. I am not after big wins but a sure bet with little profits is enough for me to call it a day. It's a normal strategy for all gamblers only those who are after making profits.

Profits isn't the most important thing when gambling but having fun to the fullest. I don't place ny bet on a game that's 50-50 chance of winning only if I love the club so much and decided to bet on them.

[Pi$$]

My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.

It's only greedy gamblers that are only after the pay out while neglecting a key factor like the team that has the highest probability of getting a win. People have different gambling strategies, some go across different league and just check list of games which has an high percentage of giving them a win, they pick those games and just stake on them and if it's a lucky day they shine with it.

Some also choose one or two games and without considering how small the odds are they stake with an high amount and it because of the amount used, the returns makes a lot of difference.  Take greed out and gamble realistically and you will experience less of losses throughout your bet, it's only when your eyes is all fixed on what you can stand to gain via just the potential returns that results in losses. Gambling is not just for the profit, gamble for fun and when you see clear chance of earning from it then you can go on to carry such bets, doing so will make you be more selective on games rather than jumping after every game that comes our way.

[YOSHIE]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?

Speaking of sports betting, for me both are often used instinct every human being sometimes spontaneous action or reaction done naturally can signal something Advantages for themselves, including me, in other words the instinct of action that leads to beliefs, of course in gambling is needed.

Obviously the statistics are no longer questioned, analyzing or presenting certain teams is the main thing that is often used in sports gambling By collecting club or player data, we can consider a score bet for which club will be stared.

The point: I often use these two elements in my experience.

[lionheart78]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?[/size][/center]

Stats would be much preferable most of the time I will go with the team that has better stats when facing each other.  For sure there are histories of matches between these two team.  Looking at the composition of the previous matches, the condition of the team, and the strategy employed by the coach and comparing it to the present.  This will give me at least a better understanding of what will be happening when these two teams play against each other.

But obviously there is always these unknown variables so when the teams are both good and have the same tendency to win, instinct will probably save the day.  But then of course there is no guarantee that the team chosen by instinct will win the game.

[Cointxz]

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My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.
What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?

This is precise. Many sports bettor keeps looking on the odds number rather than the winning probability that’s why they keep betting on teams with low chance of winning just for the sake of higher payout.

I usually just place a 2 to 3 parlay bet if I want higher odds instead of pushing my luck on betting with lower percentage winning team.

In most case, I only bet on spread bet rather than moneyline.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip...

That's a quite crazy point you've raised and honestly it's something I see overlooked constantly in the betting world. It's like people want to find a magical formula for picking winners but they actually forget that even the best strategy crumbles if your head isn't in the right space. And yeah, basically sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint of consecutive wins. Accepting losses as part of the game is crucial.

I do agree with your philosophy of looking beyond just the payout and diving into the true probability. That's where the real edge is found, in my opinion. Many new bettors (and even some experienced ones!) get so fixated on those high odds for big payouts that they ignore the inherent risk.

[joeperry]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?[/center]

Most of the time I place bet on the matches I do look forward watching to, for me it gives it a little spice and more thrill. I actually do sometimes just look in the odds but I knew that sometimes it doesn't matter as anytime, anything can happen and wouldn't predict it. So for me, I just look forward to the team that I liked, place bet, watch them.

But sometimes it's not that bad to take a look at the stats too, it would help you to analyze the match too. Another way that I bet is through parlay, with the composition of the teams of I liked, and sometimes when it's my last balance, I take a look at live matches and place as many bets that I can find with the lowest odds, sometimes I win but most of the time I lose.

[Doan9269]

Why do most people neglect the mental factor and focus only on finding the best sports betting strategies?

It is common that most people that ere interested in gambling were believed to be mentally balanced, even the reality does not says so, because some were actually not, but come to think of it this days, whereby everyone is interested in gambling, not even minding on the mental state they are before gambling, not even now that we all have access to using casino platforms independently without any restriction.

My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.

But the lower the odds the lower the amount to win and this is what most will have to work upon in keeping up with, ensuring that they managed to increase the odds for more chances of earning more, forgetting the risk involved at doing so.

[Charles-Tim]

This is precise. Many sports bettor keeps looking on the odds number rather than the winning probability that’s why they keep betting on teams with low chance of winning just for the sake of higher payout.

Most people that are betting do not go for higher odds. They go for lower odds. Higher odds are easy to know that you are doing charity for the bookies to earn easy money. Even a newbie bettor can easily understand that before placing a bet.

I usually just place a 2 to 3 parlay bet if I want higher odds instead of pushing my luck on betting with lower percentage winning team.

If you go to a betting shop and see what people are staking, almost are parley.

[Wapfika]

Thats a good strategy too. Always found a better chance to win even the prize arent that of favor since that usually what odds do and lure the players with the odds they give to general public. But sometimes its okay to bet on those to keep winning. Underdog has tight odds but if you trust on how they play then its good. Gotta need to trust.

But there are some that are not worth going for. Example are odds lower than 1.1 which is not good to go for because I do not think a bettor can go with such odd at least 10 times and not lose which is right to give you the money you are using to make the bet as a return without losing. I go for strong teams and most bettors also go for the strong teams. And with what I posted before, if Real Madrid is playing good, the odd will be far lower than 1.5 in reality.

It’s indeed not worthy if you will place a huge bet on it hoping for that 10% profit.

I usually only use that odds when I’m farming wager since some casino count wager on sportsbook higher compared to casino games. That small odds is perfect too on parlay because it can boost the odds significantly.

I saw an odds lower than 1.1 that still lose tho. That’s scary odds to YOLO bet due to the small return.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.
What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?[/size][/center]

But it's still not the perfect strategy to succeed in Sport betting, because people still loses bet even after placing a bet when the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds. Because in most scenario, when the actual chance of winning is high, the odds of the game are usually low between 1.1 to 1.2, which is quite discouraging. Because I literally don't think Sport betting has a perfect strategy, hence, it's wise if people gamble what they can always afford to lose at all times. Knowing fully well gambling is a game of both luck and skill.

[hyudien]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?[/size][/center]

I rely on statistics in my bets and this is a common thing for most bettors but sometimes it doesn't always work because there are other factors that cannot be predicted when the game is in progress and regarding instinct, this is also very much needed in betting usually when the odds are 50/50 or for example the Real Madrid vs Barcelona match I will rely on instinct in my bets.

[danherbias07]

I do wish everyone would have the same perspective as you said. "The addition of adrenaline whenever we bet while watching the game." I still have that. I don't really know why, but maybe it's because I really love the sport and I just want to add some spice to it so that I can cheer more, which I think is really effective whenever I place a bet.

Anyway, I don't really look for high payouts. x1.80 - x1.90 is enough for me, but I won't be going for x1.20 - x1.30 because for me, that's like a suicide bet. You are betting a high amount, thinking the odds are telling you that the favorite will win, but it's not always true. Use the spreads. Make a better deal, and if it wins, it's more satisfying.

[Eternad]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?[/size][/center]

I rely on statistics in my bets and this is a common thing for most bettors but sometimes it doesn't always work because there are other factors that cannot be predicted when the game is in progress and regarding instinct, this is also very much needed in betting usually when the odds are 50/50 or for example the Real Madrid vs Barcelona match I will rely on instinct in my bets.

You have a choice to skip and look for potential match can give you much better odds on a higher winning percentage game that frequently called value bets.

You don’t need to rely on your instincts just to forced yourself betting on games that is almost even.

I rarely bet on even games while the odds is below 2.0 because the house edge is too high. I always find a match that is easy to predict for a much better probability rather than keep betting on games that you will rely on instinct to win.

[Agbe]

The reason why most people lose more money is because they are after making money so always they are concerned about the amount of money that they are about to win and not the winning percentage that a team that they intends to bet on os having, single betting like the one that you have mentioned is the best but because of greed most gambler's will not bet on a single game when it comes to gambling on a single odd what a gambler is expected to do is to increase their stake

[Amphenomenon]

It's important to see gambling as something done for fun while calculating your total incurred losses in order not to fall in depth because everything has to have a moderation. Gambling is not a get rich scheme or means of living. Although a few has been able to live on this or have their life changed for the better but it's better to have to have this view point in order not to put yourself in a decline stage and depth.

~snip...

That's a quite crazy point you've raised and honestly it's something I see overlooked constantly in the betting world. It's like people want to find a magical formula for picking winners but they actually forget that even the best strategy crumbles if your head isn't in the right space. And yeah, basically sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint of consecutive wins. Accepting losses as part of the game is crucial.

No matter how well a gambler can strategically planned a win, if their mentality towards losing is poor they will more likely crumble.

Winning always is not often the thing and that's the same for trading, when your total profits is not equal to your total incurred losses, then you are at the losing end.