Could High Payouts Be Hurting Your Sports Betting Strategy? Here’s My Opinion!

[len01]

Regarding sports matches in soccer betting, we usually also have to look at match conditions or early season match conditions, mid-season or season matches. Probability is very important but look at the end of season matches always provide unexpected surprises. For example, Chelsea vs Liverpool and Liverpool odds @1.4 while Chelsea @2.5. But there are 4 matches left this season and Liverpool have officially won the title. While Chelsea need 3 full points to stay in the best position to get UCL tickets. Finally Chelsea won and Liverpool lost that match.

Sometimes as bettors we also have to pay attention to things like this.

[EluguHcman]

My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.

Only the greeds that will concentrate on the payout percent and are usually lost out of their minds because they literally don't consider the team strengths neither do they take time analysing the game before taking a final decision.

It is also a trick of the bookmakers trying to convince us not to clearly vision or identifying the team that is to be in the most probable position to win and considering your decisions based on the odds, it could still fail you as the game of football is unpredictable unless for the notable influential clubs playing against clubs which strengths is obvious that is not strong enough to be compared with the higher teams.

[batang_bitcoin]

Gone is the era of YOLO betting in sports. If you are that rich then you can do whatever you can with your money and just casually bet on unusual games that you have no idea of. But none of us these days are doing that anymore especially if the money that you're using to bet for is from hard earned, you will do necessary things to make sure that you've got the best probability of winning that bet. And that's why I am just using the common knowledge of what people has shared it and I think each bettor rely on the statistics that they see each game that they're interested to go on.

You are right, this is too much risk, any bettor that is taking such risk, I guess they already have a better financial stand and they probably are not much bothered if they lose or not because they staked with small amount that can be lost without chocking them.  I can only make predictions that I know have a higher possibility of becoming realistic and not some game that I know too well that it's so much of a risk to place the bet on such game.

That is what it should be in sports betting. We should know what we are betting for and shouldn't just be a random guy betting on these games. But sometimes it happens when we're burn out and we don't want to do such analysis but we want to bet. Well, if you value every cents that you're betting for the games that you're following, you'll have to make sure that you've done your part and you're gonna be confident on the results that it should give you. And for the rich ones, they won't think anything at all if they lose, they've got a lot of spare cash to gamble with.

[Darker45]

My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.

Only the greeds that will concentrate on the payout percent and are usually lost out of their minds because they literally don't consider the team strengths neither do they take time analysing the game before taking a final decision.

However, is there constantly a discrepancy between the odds and the probability of a team or player winning? After all, the odds are precisely the gauge of the player or the team's probabilities.

It's not like the odds don't reflect it. It's not like the odds suggest a team is most probably losing yet all analyses and opinions are saying it will most probably win.

The odds themselves are probabilities. They reflect analyses, statistics, strengths and weaknesses, and so on.

[Leahized]

Gone is the era of YOLO betting in sports. If you are that rich then you can do whatever you can with your money and just casually bet on unusual games that you have no idea of. But none of us these days are doing that anymore especially if the money that you're using to bet for is from hard earned, you will do necessary things to make sure that you've got the best probability of winning that bet. And that's why I am just using the common knowledge of what people has shared it and I think each bettor rely on the statistics that they see each game that they're interested to go on.

You are right, this is too much risk, any bettor that is taking such risk, I guess they already have a better financial stand and they probably are not much bothered if they lose or not because they staked with small amount that can be lost without chocking them.  I can only make predictions that I know have a higher possibility of becoming realistic and not some game that I know too well that it's so much of a risk to place the bet on such game.

Not just playing football but all kinds of games have been betting. The most play in playing football and playing cricket is high. You are right, saying that if a rich person is betting and he loses, then he will not do anything but if the money earned is lost by the betrayal of a person, he can be frustrated. Praying in any game with a very small amount of money will not be better than this. Although all the games depend on the players and how they are playing in the past, the bet should be taken into consideration. Often times, with a small amount of money, a lot of money wins. But the prophecy is not always correct.

[Samlucky O]

It seems most of us here consider low odds as high probability. This is not always going to work; sometimes some low odds are traps. That's why you need to check every team first, watch their game, and do a deep analysis before you are going to bet to make sure you are betting on high probability.

That's actually true, I am a victim of that on several occasions when I pick small odd in hope and expectation of getting straight win without any problem but it happens that the small odd lose while the big of won emagine 1.20odd against 7 odd and 7 odd won.  So the possibility of win is not dependent on the odd but analysis. But then analysis doesn't also guarantee accurate result all the time. It is always vise versa.

Sports should not be difficult to analyze; each game should have some highlight videos available on YouTube to help you decide which one will give you a possitive outcome.

I agree with you that sports should not be difficult to analyze because of some highlights videos on YouTube which could be used to make some accesment, but like I said before that doesn't also guarantee %100 accuracy. It is always 50/50 Chance. Mostly base on luck.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Gone is the era of YOLO betting in sports. If you are that rich then you can do whatever you can with your money and just casually bet on unusual games that you have no idea of. But none of us these days are doing that anymore especially if the money that you're using to bet for is from hard earned, you will do necessary things to make sure that you've got the best probability of winning that bet. And that's why I am just using the common knowledge of what people has shared it and I think each bettor rely on the statistics that they see each game that they're interested to go on.

You are right, this is too much risk, any bettor that is taking such risk, I guess they already have a better financial stand and they probably are not much bothered if they lose or not because they staked with small amount that can be lost without chocking them.  I can only make predictions that I know have a higher possibility of becoming realistic and not some game that I know too well that it's so much of a risk to place the bet on such game.

That is what it should be in sports betting. We should know what we are betting for and shouldn't just be a random guy betting on these games. But sometimes it happens when we're burn out and we don't want to do such analysis but we want to bet. Well, if you value every cents that you're betting for the games that you're following, you'll have to make sure that you've done your part and you're gonna be confident on the results that it should give you. And for the rich ones, they won't think anything at all if they lose, they've got a lot of spare cash to gamble with.

Some of them do not gamble all the time but do it occasionally, if they staked today and lose the money, the next time they will gamble is after they have recovered that money back, I think they do it like that until any day they finally get lucky and win so big. For small gamblers like us, it's to be very careful with game selection and also risk the amount we can afford to lose.

[Zadicar]

Gone is the era of YOLO betting in sports. If you are that rich then you can do whatever you can with your money and just casually bet on unusual games that you have no idea of. But none of us these days are doing that anymore especially if the money that you're using to bet for is from hard earned, you will do necessary things to make sure that you've got the best probability of winning that bet. And that's why I am just using the common knowledge of what people has shared it and I think each bettor rely on the statistics that they see each game that they're interested to go on.

You are right, this is too much risk, any bettor that is taking such risk, I guess they already have a better financial stand and they probably are not much bothered if they lose or not because they staked with small amount that can be lost without chocking them.  I can only make predictions that I know have a higher possibility of becoming realistic and not some game that I know too well that it's so much of a risk to place the bet on such game.

Not just playing football but all kinds of games have been betting. The most play in playing football and playing cricket is high. You are right, saying that if a rich person is betting and he loses, then he will not do anything but if the money earned is lost by the betrayal of a person, he can be frustrated. Praying in any game with a very small amount of money will not be better than this. Although all the games depend on the players and how they are playing in the past, the bet should be taken into consideration. Often times, with a small amount of money, a lot of money wins. But the prophecy is not always correct.

The key on here is that you should that bet into the amount on which you can afford to lose on which there's no way that you would be finding yourself having that worry if you are that losing up your bets.
It wont matter much whether you are getting involved with different sports on which you do seem that interest you then there's no issue with this one. It all matters on how you would be that making yourself or on having that entertainment or having that leisure because this will be the most important thing of all. About on sports betting strategy then relying with instinct might work for sometime but it wont be something that could sustain you up for a very long time or simply you cant rely on it. We do know that sports betting that analysis and skills will be that relevant and you cant just that rely with those inner voices alone.

[SmartGold01]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?

choosing the best performing team and stake with amount I can afford to lose, I don't always like odds to detects much for me as I don't want to be focusing on odds. The main thing is to look out for for the possibilities of winning, most times our instincts actually counts most but it fails us as well since is mostly what we feels should happened to us while it doesn't work.
If I have a good game which I know the odds are very small let say 1.5 or 1.4-1.8 odds I wouldn't mind just looking at the lowest then I bet with the amount I can afford to lose.

[Fredomago]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?

choosing the best performing team and stake with amount I can afford to lose, I don't always like odds to detects much for me as I don't want to be focusing on odds. The main thing is to look out for for the possibilities of winning, most times our instincts actually counts most but it fails us as well since is mostly what we feels should happened to us while it doesn't work.
If I have a good game which I know the odds are very small let say 1.5 or 1.4-1.8 odds I wouldn't mind just looking at the lowest then I bet with the amount I can afford to lose.

Better than nothing, as long as you fully understand the possibilities and you have that good acceptance of whatever may happen there's  a chance that you may win and have that chill day when gambling, no pressure if you allocate budget for your gambling an amount that you are willing to let go, since that you are more into potential win and odd is not that much you care on, if you can have a good winning streaks and manage to quit while you are still in the winning side.

Accumulating 2 or more wins then quit away then the profits still decent more on how you set your strategy and how you'll handle your own emotions.

[SmartGold01]

What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?

choosing the best performing team and stake with amount I can afford to lose, I don't always like odds to detects much for me as I don't want to be focusing on odds. The main thing is to look out for for the possibilities of winning, most times our instincts actually counts most but it fails us as well since is mostly what we feels should happened to us while it doesn't work.
If I have a good game which I know the odds are very small let say 1.5 or 1.4-1.8 odds I wouldn't mind just looking at the lowest then I bet with the amount I can afford to lose.

Better than nothing, as long as you fully understand the possibilities and you have that good acceptance of whatever may happen there's  a chance that you may win and have that chill day when gambling, no pressure if you allocate budget for your gambling an amount that you are willing to let go, since that you are more into potential win and odd is not that much you care on, if you can have a good winning streaks and manage to quit while you are still in the winning side.

Accumulating 2 or more wins then quit away then the profits still decent more on how you set your strategy and how you'll handle your own emotions.

I don't even wait to have several winning before I can quit for the day.. usually I have set some rules and principles to myself while gambling and whenever I stake game twice and noticed that either win or one lose or both losses I wouldn't stress myself betting again or even trying to bet and recovered what I had lost already. You know, one thing about gambling is to set some principles that would governed you will gambling otherwise you could end up becoming an irresponsible gambler where you wouldn't know when to quit and and when not to further gambling again.

[batang_bitcoin]

That is what it should be in sports betting. We should know what we are betting for and shouldn't just be a random guy betting on these games. But sometimes it happens when we're burn out and we don't want to do such analysis but we want to bet. Well, if you value every cents that you're betting for the games that you're following, you'll have to make sure that you've done your part and you're gonna be confident on the results that it should give you. And for the rich ones, they won't think anything at all if they lose, they've got a lot of spare cash to gamble with.

Some of them do not gamble all the time but do it occasionally, if they staked today and lose the money, the next time they will gamble is after they have recovered that money back, I think they do it like that until any day they finally get lucky and win so big. For small gamblers like us, it's to be very careful with game selection and also risk the amount we can afford to lose.

Yes, we have to be careful with the games that we're betting for. Because if you can afford to lose the amount that you are betting for, that's fine if you do it with caution. But not everyone can be on that state as they bet, they're letting their emotions do things on their own. And for those that are continuing to gamble that way, they're dragging themselves to the pit for them to fall and will hardly recover later. It's simple if you've been in the hardest times because you'll be careful with yourself and the bankroll you're setting.

[coyhasmon]

Yes, we have to be careful with the games that we're betting for. Because if you can afford to lose the amount that you are betting for, that's fine if you do it with caution. But not everyone can be on that state as they bet, they're letting their emotions do things on their own. And for those that are continuing to gamble that way, they're dragging themselves to the pit for them to fall and will hardly recover later. It's simple if you've been in the hardest times because you'll be careful with yourself and the bankroll you're setting.

There are at least two types of careless people in this case. Those that can afford to lose the money and dismiss it as not important, when it is important. Also those that get very upset at losing the money, which can trigger them to chase and try to recover it.

However, is there constantly a discrepancy between the odds and the probability of a team or player winning? After all, the odds are precisely the gauge of the player or the team's probabilities.

It's not like the odds don't reflect it. It's not like the odds suggest a team is most probably losing yet all analyses and opinions are saying it will most probably win.

The odds themselves are probabilities. They reflect analyses, statistics, strengths and weaknesses, and so on.

Yes, but the odds can be wrong and they often are wrong. If odds were almost always right, you could get rich by following the odds all the time.

[Slow death]

In my case, I simply avoid games that have low odds. Only in cases where I'm doing a parlay do I make an exception and place games with odds of @1.20. However, I also think many times before placing them because I've had many cases where I've placed 5 games, and in 4 games the odds were higher than @1.50 and in 1 game the odds were @1.10.

The saddest thing was that I got the 4 games right with high odds and lost the game with odds of @1.10. In simple bets, I don't bet on games with low odds. I prefer to take the risk of betting on games with high odds that give me a profit when I get a few games right than to waste time and money on bets with low odds.

[batang_bitcoin]

Yes, we have to be careful with the games that we're betting for. Because if you can afford to lose the amount that you are betting for, that's fine if you do it with caution. But not everyone can be on that state as they bet, they're letting their emotions do things on their own. And for those that are continuing to gamble that way, they're dragging themselves to the pit for them to fall and will hardly recover later. It's simple if you've been in the hardest times because you'll be careful with yourself and the bankroll you're setting.

There are at least two types of careless people in this case. Those that can afford to lose the money and dismiss it as not important, when it is important. Also those that get very upset at losing the money, which can trigger them to chase and try to recover it.

I guess that we've got our own triggering factors whenever we gamble. It happens to most of us but after doing that, we're calmer and realizing that it's a mistake that we shouldn't do anymore. Those that can afford to lose money, they have a lot of it pack to their bags and that's why it is easy for them to lose it. Whilst the typical gamblers, they know when it is good to give up and when they have nothing left anymore because of their recklessness that needs to change whenever they are up to gamble. In the end of the day, we can just say 'to each their own'.

[alani123]

What strategy? Most gamblers will soon realize that there's no viable strategy or else they'll just be waisting their income on bets every month.

I think that in occasions where someone is very consistent in winning platforms just close his account.
So in terms of OP's question, I don't think this is a real problem. Betting on any match should be more about fun. When you enter strategy into play then I think you're looking for patterns that aren't really there. Whether or not a team could win is a matter of how this team is doing at that specific point in time.

So I'd say high payouts can be a good thing if you can match this with good info. But because usually people overestimate their ability to gather info, the strategy of chasing high payouts doesn't work. Neither would any strategy too either though so it's a question that I wouldn't say makes much sense.

[Ziskinberg]

For me, high payout means odds of 3.00 or more. But honestly, when I bet on those most of the time, I don’t really win because  those odds come with low chances.

Now, odds around 2.00? That’s where I’ve seen the most success. As long as I stay disciplined and manage my bankroll properly, I can be profitable. You only need a 51% win rate to stay in the green. But I’m not a pro, so sometimes I mess up and lose control.

What I’m really saying is this: odds like 1.90 aren’t “high payout” at all. Even if you go for 1.80, you’re still paying the juice. In the long run, low payouts can quietly drain your bankroll.

[Darker45]

However, is there constantly a discrepancy between the odds and the probability of a team or player winning? After all, the odds are precisely the gauge of the player or the team's probabilities.

It's not like the odds don't reflect it. It's not like the odds suggest a team is most probably losing yet all analyses and opinions are saying it will most probably win.

The odds themselves are probabilities. They reflect analyses, statistics, strengths and weaknesses, and so on.

Yes, but the odds can be wrong and they often are wrong. If odds were almost always right, you could get rich by following the odds all the time.

They can be wrong, of course. I said they reflect probabilities not certainties. After all, games are still to be played. Players and their coaching teams could commit errors. Weaker teams could turn out more prepared, more excited, and so on. New plays, new strategies, a certain amount of progress, lessons learned, adjustments, and a dozen other factors could change game results.

Upsets do happen, of course. But they're precisely called upsets because they're not expected.

Odds are almost always right. In the NBA, for example, there's a 70-75% win rate for favorites. In the NFL, the win is 65-70%. The reason why you won't get rich by sticking with favorites all the time is the odds. You may win 70-80% of the time sticking with heavy favorites and you could still be net negative.

[Reatim]

My idea is to not only look at the payout but at the true probability behind a game. When the actual chance of winning is higher than the odds, know that you’ve found your perfect opportunity.

Only the greeds that will concentrate on the payout percent and are usually lost out of their minds because they literally don't consider the team strengths neither do they take time analysing the game before taking a final decision.

However, is there constantly a discrepancy between the odds and the probability of a team or player winning? After all, the odds are precisely the gauge of the player or the team's probabilities.

It's not like the odds don't reflect it. It's not like the odds suggest a team is most probably losing yet all analyses and opinions are saying it will most probably win.

The odds themselves are probabilities. They reflect analyses, statistics, strengths and weaknesses, and so on.

bookmakers make the odds but they make these odds based on data

they also make their own prediction in a way since they also have no idea who will win but they set up the odds in a way that the house can still benefit no matter who wins. only the fans are extremely biased and can ignore previous matches and still continue to support that one team they all love so much

[Fundamentals Of]

This happens because most gamblers think of the money they can get if they win. They take more risks if necessary if that means the money they could get is bigger. The result is that they will lose most of the time. I have observed this behavior in some of my gambler friends. Some of them will reason out that it is all right although it is sad that they lose, but what if they won? That is usually their reaction. It is sad that I lose, but what if I won? Everybody would congratulate me, pat my back, and tell me I did the right thing.