2028 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[₿itcoin]

Through history there have been 4 vice presidents that were later elected to hold office as president.

It's rare but not impossible. I'd say out of this entire list JD is the only person with some significance to likely run for this position.
We have a long time since then but I feel like since both parties will be holding primaries it's going to be an interesting process. Bets this eun will be more complicated because both parties will have to go through the election process.

In the meantime it's important to also observe the midterms to see if democrats can get ahead or not.

Yes it is kinda rare but not impossible. hmm 4 vice presidents to at last turned into president, like Bush and Biden. J.D. Vance assuredly has some punch as ex vice president under Trump, but whether he will run in 2028 is still up for debate. When Trump picked him in July 2024, his outline as his vice presidential pick rose, indicating that he could echo with Midwestern & working-class voters. However right now everyone vision are on the 2026 midterm elections, which are set to be a referendum on Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Republican sway of Congress. If Democrats go on with to shift seats and hold on to the top of the midterm capability, the entire landscape would change before the next primary. Yes I get election are so messy but such things turns primaries and midterms so exciting and fleshy.

[Alex077]

...In any case, we still have a lot of time to think about our decision regarding betting on this political event. For now, I believe that the current US vice president will be the next US president. The Democrats currently do not have any bright candidates for the post of US president. However, I repeat that 3 years is a huge period of time. During this time, new candidates for the post of US president may appear who are not yet on the list. Now Elon Musk has announced the creation of a new political party. Perhaps Elon Musk's supporters will also nominate their candidate.  Also, the Democrats will probably take advantage of all the mistakes of the Republicans and prepare a young and promising candidate for the US presidency during this time. Thus, in my opinion, it makes sense to wait at least until 2027 and then plan bets on this political event.

  Fair points, but wow — you really went full doomsday there for a minute. Collapse of the US.... abolishing the presidency..... I mean, sure, black swans are always possible… but feels a bit extreme.
That said, yeah — 3 years is a long time in politics, a lot can change, especially with how fast public opinion moves these days.
I wouldn’t count out surprise candidates either — someone charismatic could come out of nowhere, especially with how the internet shapes narratives now. And if Musk is really serious about a new party, things could get wild.
Waiting until 2027 to place any bets sounds like the smart move, right now it’s all just noise and speculatio.

ps I was honestly shocked to see J.D. Vance at 3.75 odds — I seriously think his chances are way higher in the next election, feels like people are really underestimating him.

[KTChampions]

I think it's better to track the dynamics on the polymarket.
Vance looks like a favorite (even though he's an asshole) simply because he has people behind him who nominated Trump. If the elections were in a month, I'd bet on Vance even with 1.1 odds. In the long term, even with such a high coefficient, this bet is hardly justified - Trump managed to screw up so much in the first 5 months that I'm not at all confident in the future of the Republicans.

Vance maybe the favorite as of now. But a lot will depend on the future of the America Party. If this party, which was launched by Elon Musk a few hours ago can get around 20% of the votes (opinion polls suggest that it would get ~8% of the votes, but I am sure that it will change in the coming weeks and months), then it will pose a challenge to the GOP. There is no doubt that vast majority of the votes for AP will come from the former GOP supporters, while Democrats have a solid vote base with their core demographic groups such as African Americans, Hispanics and LGBTQ. 

Yep, that's true. Elon Musk's party will take votes from Republicans, which is quite logical since Republicans have scammed their voters and now voters must react somehow. Obviously, they will not switch to voting for the enemies (in every sense) - Democrats, but will vote for the "new real Republicans".
In general, it's a very unpleasant situation, because maybe the new party will simply split the Republican votes and the Democrats will win a convincing victory. But on the other hand, it won't get any worse - it's time to end this crap.

[goldkingcoiner]

Through history there have been 4 vice presidents that were later elected to hold office as president.

It's rare but not impossible. I'd say out of this entire list JD is the only person with some significance to likely run for this position.
We have a long time since then but I feel like since both parties will be holding primaries it's going to be an interesting process. Bets this eun will be more complicated because both parties will have to go through the election process.

In the meantime it's important to also observe the midterms to see if democrats can get ahead or not.

That just means the odds of vice presidents becoming president is higher than for anyone else. Which, from the perspective of gambling could be considered a smart bet. Although I totally agree that it is too soon to start making speculations and forget president, it really is anyone's guess as to who even will be even a candidate for president.

Elon Musk is also being taunted as a potential President in 2028

By who? Musk can't run for president, he is not an American-born citizen.

Well that is true.

But I doubt it will stop him from installing some puppet in his place... There are more than enough loyal Elon Musk fanatics who would follow his every word without question and even more so if a large amount of money is involved. That is the real issue, his money is going to be the driving power here.

Is it about who will be the contestants or who will be the next United States president?

If it is about who is going to hlbe the next president, I do not think this is the right time to talk be discussing about it. It is surprising that it is now on bookies. I can not bet on it now.

I think the odds should be better if the betting starts earlier, otherwise it would make no sense to start betting so early on it. Too many variables and things could change at any time for any reason. Betting now is not smart.

[stompix]

Elon Musk is also being taunted as a potential President in 2028

By who? Musk can't run for president, he is not an American-born citizen.

Well that is true.

But I doubt it will stop him from installing some puppet in his place... There are more than enough loyal Elon Musk fanatics who would follow his every word without question and even more so if a large amount of money is involved. That is the real issue, his money is going to be the driving power here.

Americans vote for the president itself, they will never vote for a guy they don't like because of the vice he is running with.
Democrats won't be voting for him anyhow, republicans will see this as an Obama and his birth certificate episode and also refuse endorsement, die-hard MAGA already hate him, he has zero chances at anything related to the presidency.
State governor, maybe! I mean, ...Arnold got elected! But nothing else!

~
LOL, this is insane. Why would a bookie include these names in the betting line? Isn’t that kind of misleading?

Well, nobody forces you to bet, they can publish whatever bets and odds they want!
But still funny to see Hilarry at 100x, Kamala and M Obama at 50x and Oprah at 25x. 

[LUCKMCFLY]

The pool is favoring JD Vance based on the odd, but I agree with you that there is still a long time ahead and the success of JD Vance is tied to the success of this present administration under Donald Trump. If Donald Trump flexes his muscle so well as someone that is not running again, he might be so tough that he will be seen as a dictator which is something American do not won. Guess who will face the music, any candidate that secures the Republican ticket.

The truth is this is very complicated I know that things are good to do in time , but in the USA anything that happens has a direct impact on the way Trump does things, what I didn't like is that with the Texas tragedy he said that he hoped those who died were immigrants, because a person can't be like that he has to have some humanity, that really lowers his popularity.

[stompix]

If that list is too long, the only ones under 20 odds right now are
- JD Vance at 3.75
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom at 10
- Pete Buttigieg at 12 and Josh Shapiro at 16
And no, you can't bet on Trump!

Bumping this since other markets have already started placing bets



Gavin Newsom and JD Vance are equal at 4x, so basically, if you had bet 8 months ago on  Newsom at 10 you could already cash-out in profit by now!
Probably this is why prediction markets have started gaining steam, you buy early a position and wait your odds to improve enough to make a profit without risking on the actual outcome.

This is Poly, for someone who is certain Vance would win the nomination it might make sense to buy now and dump it immediately after he gets it, probably doing the opposite for Cortez as I don't think democrats are that crazy to nominate a clear failure.
So yeah, buy low sell high for bets also!




PS. You can bet on Donald Trump on 3% on Poly!

[Haunebu]

Vance at 4.0? Lmao! This is the same dumdum who got booed like crazy along with his wife at the ongoing Winter Olympics. Cannot rule him out though since if some braindead Americans were able to make someone like Trump president twice, literally anything can happen there.

Newsom has his own issues, but he is a strong Democratic face for sure. Anyway, it would be epic if Trump gets impeached this year thanks to the Epstein files, Dems winning midterms etc, but that's just a pipe dream.

[KTChampions]

Vance at 4.0? Lmao! This is the same dumdum who got booed like crazy along with his wife at the ongoing Winter Olympics. Cannot rule him out though since if some braindead Americans were able to make someone like Trump president twice, literally anything can happen there.
~

The problem isn't with Vance, but in general that Americans are forced to choose between crap and shit. Even after electing Trump, they did not receive any fulfillment of his promises, on the contrary. The system really consists of two fake parties, but power never leaves the hands of those who control the process. Until the Americans clean out everyone who stands behind Epstein and those for whom he worked (99% of the political and economic elite), everything will continue to be a farce.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

If it is about who is going to hlbe the next president, I do not think this is the right time to talk be discussing about it. It is surprising that it is now on bookies. I can not bet on it now.

I think the bookies decided to add them now since the odds are still high, it's actually for their own benefits majorly because a lot of people that starts betting now will not bet it right but the few people that will get it right, would win a huge amount since the odd is big now. If I'm to take the bet, Gavin Newsom is my pick, I think he has better chance but I do agree with you that the time is still too far to actually tell tho but can also see that the odd of betting on him is just 10 and of few others is low too, as time proceeds, the odd will continue to drop.

[Coyster]

And no, you can't bet on Trump!

And why the hell is that, isn't there a slight chance the constitution gets amended and he goes for a third term. He'd surely win again, so that's like a sure bet and i could put my house and car on that, lol.

PS. You can bet on Donald Trump on 3% on Poly!

Mmm-hmm, now i see your latest post as i'm about to drop this. Good bet don't you guys think. What if he actually runs for third term, are the chances of that happening less than 3%?

[FirmWars]

The list is too long, it should have just been a small list of the top 10 or 15 candidate that are going to be contesting and also have the chance to be elected as the president of 2028, that will be more brief to deal with, even some people that likes to bet on everything hoping that they are going to win the bet no matter which of the candidate wins the election. The top five candidate under 20 odds is okay for me to bet on in five different bookies so that if anyone win, I'm going to win too.

[Mindyspace]

...

I think the bookies decided to add them now since the odds are still high, it's actually for their own benefits majorly because a lot of people that starts betting now will not bet it right but the few people that will get it right, would win a huge amount since the odd is big now. If I'm to take the bet, Gavin Newsom is my pick, I think he has better chance but I do agree with you that the time is still too far to actually tell tho but can also see that the odd of betting on him is just 10 and of few others is low too, as time proceeds, the odd will continue to drop.

I agree completely! This seems more like bait from the betting houses than anything accurate. Newsom is a good name, but politics changes too quickly.

In this case, do you think he'll still be the favorite when the campaign really gets going? I'm having this doubt...

[Hispo]

Vance at 4.0? Lmao! This is the same dumdum who got booed like crazy along with his wife at the ongoing Winter Olympics. Cannot rule him out though since if some braindead Americans were able to make someone like Trump president twice, literally anything can happen there.

Newsom has his own issues, but he is a strong Democratic face for sure. Anyway, it would be epic if Trump gets impeached this year thanks to the Epstein files, Dems winning midterms etc, but that's just a pipe dream.

Let us be honest. It is very unlikely something will happen to Trump before the leaves the presidency of the country. I would even go further and say nothing is going to happen to him once he is back to Mar-a-lago as a private citizen.

American politics are just too screwed nowadays, to the point that getting criminals accountable for their alleged crimes has become a partisan movement. People have started to give more priority to their political party of preference than the life of people who got abused by those in power.

Anyways, I think there is also a good chance someone within Trump family runs for the presidency instead of Vance. Trump is the kind of person who would like his Family to start a political dinasty, just like the Kennedys.

[Sithara007]

The list is too long, it should have just been a small list of the top 10 or 15 candidate that are going to be contesting and also have the chance to be elected as the president of 2028, that will be more brief to deal with, even some people that likes to bet on everything hoping that they are going to win the bet no matter which of the candidate wins the election. The top five candidate under 20 odds is okay for me to bet on in five different bookies so that if anyone win, I'm going to win too.

I would still say that it is too early. You can create a list of 20 candidates in 2026, and when the actual election happens in 2028, none of these listed candidates will be there on the ballot paper. Remember the 2016 POTUS elections? Initially it was Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich who were in the forefront. And then Donald Trump announced his candidature all of a sudden on June 2015. Suddenly he started leading the polls and many of the other candidates had to drop out. The same can happen in 2028. For now JD Vance is leading the polls. But I have a feeling that he is not going to win the primaries.

[beerlover]

I do have a huge belief that it's going to be JD Vance and Newsom. Not because those two are good, as someone who is not American, I can see why both of them are horrible candidates to be the next president, clearly they are both not qualified and they should both be not even nominees let alone candidates.

But from what I have seen in the past 30 years of American elections, that is exactly who they pick to be candidates, two people who are terrible. And that is what they will mostly do, so that you have to pick the least horrible one. They never offer any good choice.

[Kelward]

The list is too long, it should have just been a small list of the top 10 or 15 candidate that are going to be contesting and also have the chance to be elected as the president of 2028, that will be more brief to deal with, even some people that likes to bet on everything hoping that they are going to win the bet no matter which of the candidate wins the election. The top five candidate under 20 odds is okay for me to bet on in five different bookies so that if anyone win, I'm going to win too.

I would still say that it is too early. You can create a list of 20 candidates in 2026, and when the actual election happens in 2028, none of these listed candidates will be there on the ballot paper. Remember the 2016 POTUS elections? Initially it was Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich who were in the forefront. And then Donald Trump announced his candidature all of a sudden on June 2015. Suddenly he started leading the polls and many of the other candidates had to drop out. The same can happen in 2028. For now JD Vance is leading the polls. But I have a feeling that he is not going to win the primaries.

I also believe that it is quite early to start predicting who the next president of the united states will be and the list in the OP is very long, some of them won't even be interested to contest while a few might unfortunately pass on, example is Hulk Hogan. But despite what we think whether it is too early or not the reality is that the prediction bet has started, anybody can try to make an early guess for a price. Maybe one day we will start to see bettors seriously making prediction bets for events that will take more than four years to materialize, you're either in or out, gambling is evolving and prediction is at the top of innovations now if I may say so.

[stompix]

Mmm-hmm, now i see your latest post as i'm about to drop this. Good bet don't you guys think. What if he actually runs for third term, are the chances of that happening less than 3%?

The rates are not for him running, it's for him winning!
And he will not get the Republicans' votes, him going to the preliminaries would mean he will try to modify the constitution. Republicans love a strong man but dislike dictators, even for Trump, that is political suicide, they are not called being conservative for nothing, Poly and others added that option just to make things entertaining and gain attention.

I also believe that it is quite early to start predicting who the next president of the united states will be and the list in the OP is very long,

But a bigger list also means better odds if you have chosen the eventual winner.
The lowest odds are 4.0, good luck after the preliminaries are done finding odds like that with two candidates

[KTChampions]

~
But from what I have seen in the past 30 years of American elections, that is exactly who they pick to be candidates, two people who are terrible. And that is what they will mostly do, so that you have to pick the least horrible one. They never offer any good choice.

You nailed it. This is the essence of the system. And it doesn’t even matter what the candidate says, as the saying goes, no matter who you vote for, “the national debt is growing, the bombs keep falling”. Trump has broken virtually all of his campaign promises. The national debt is growing, overseas wars continue, tax cuts are forgotten, government efficiency is also forgotten, and so on. Somehow, some of Epstein's files have been released, but there have still been no arrests. Against this backdrop, Americans who discuss who to vote for look simply stupid.

[OgNasty]

I think it is still way too early to be betting on this. It is quite likely that the candidates aren’t even chosen yet that will be voted on. I’m not sure any of the front runners now will actually end up on the ballet, particularly on the left side.