Topic For FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Meetings

[OgNasty]

That makes the 25 bps rate cut to proceed as scheduled next week.

I agree.  Pretty much what has been expected for some time now.  It would take a 50 bps rate cut to generate any real excitement.

[Wind_FURY]

That makes the 25 bps rate cut to proceed as scheduled next week.

I agree.  Pretty much what has been expected for some time now.  It would take a 50 bps rate cut to generate any real excitement.

It's 25 bps this week, then another 25 bps rate cut during December. It's definitely VERY bullish for both the legacy markets and the crypto-market, but it's also a little concerning "why" Jerome Powell is cutting rates while inflation is above their 2% target.

Does that mean that they expect a sudden surge in unemployment, which obviously will lower economic demand, and therefore make inflation fall BELOW their 2% target.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Wind_FURY]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm

https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2010510130970849338

👀

I had to check twice if it's an A.I. generated video or not. It's REAL. Jerome Powell is accusing the president of the United States of using political pressure and the criminal charges through the D.O.J. because he wouldn't follow the president's order to loosen the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

[Smack That Ace]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm

https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2010510130970849338

👀

I had to check twice if it's an A.I. generated video or not. It's REAL. Jerome Powell is accusing the president of the United States of using political pressure and the criminal charges through the D.O.J. because he wouldn't follow the president's order to loosen the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

I have also read this news, and it seem the Trump administration is trying to dismantle the centuries old independence of the Fed. In the long run, this only harms the USD, but they do not seem to care. However, the matter did not end there, and even more ridiculously, Trump claimed he knew nothing about the DOJ targeting Powell. 

However, I guess this will not lead anywhere either, since Powell only has four month left in his term as Fed chairman, which is in May.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-denies-involvement-doj-fed-subpoena-jerome-powell-rcna253526?

[Wind_FURY]

The U.S. CPI numbers will be released/announced in five hours.

  👀

The projected numbers are higher year over year, and month over month. THEN next week we'll see the new Federal Reserve Chairman give his first speech. Analysts are saying that he is "reform-minded", but does THAT mean he's hawkish or dovish?

[colinistheman]

The U.S. CPI numbers will be released/announced in five hours.

  👀

The projected numbers are higher year over year, and month over month. THEN next week we'll see the new Federal Reserve Chairman give his first speech. Analysts are saying that he is "reform-minded", but does THAT mean he's hawkish or dovish?

Regardless of whether Kevin Warsh is hawkish or dovish, inflation continues to show an upward trend, which means that interest rates are unlikely to be cut anytime soon. They might even be forced to raise interest rates again if inflation soars.

According to CME FedWatch, there is currently about a 98% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, while only 1,8% expect a a 25bps rate cut.


cmegroup.com

[Wind_FURY]

The U.S. CPI numbers will be released/announced in five hours.

  👀

The projected numbers are higher year over year, and month over month. THEN next week we'll see the new Federal Reserve Chairman give his first speech. Analysts are saying that he is "reform-minded", but does THAT mean he's hawkish or dovish?

Regardless of whether Kevin Warsh is hawkish or dovish, inflation continues to show an upward trend, which means that interest rates are unlikely to be cut anytime soon. They might even be forced to raise interest rates again if inflation soars.

According to CME FedWatch, there is currently about a 98% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, while only 1,8% expect a a 25bps rate cut.


cmegroup.com

The projection was actually on point with the actual numbers. It's higher, but because it didn't go over the projected number the stock market in the U.S. took the new positively even though it's higher.



 

BUT if inflation doesn't go down during the next two or three months, we probably should expect another rate hike, no?

[Wind_FURY]

In about one hour, August's inflation print/numbers will be announced and the Federal Reserve's decision in September 15 will depend on how high, or low, that number might be.

The markets will be more volatile than expected. Don't Panic, just HODL your precious Bitcoin.

[BALIK]

In about one hour, August's inflation print/numbers will be announced and the Federal Reserve's decision in September 15 will depend on how high, or low, that number might be.

The markets will be more volatile than expected. Don't Panic, just HODL your precious Bitcoin.

Finally, the numbers are out and the market immediately pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike to nearly 90%, up from around 70% yesterday. And just like you predicted, and as usual, the market got pretty volatile. Bitcoin dropped to $76k before bouncing back to $79k shortly after.

According to CME, the market is now pretty much convinced that rate are gonna go up, but its hard to tell how Bitcoin is gonna move after 9/15 with everything going on. The market expects Fed to hike rates, yet Bitcoin is going up? That's pretty confusing, tbh.

[Fortify]

In about one hour, August's inflation print/numbers will be announced and the Federal Reserve's decision in September 15 will depend on how high, or low, that number might be.

The markets will be more volatile than expected. Don't Panic, just HODL your precious Bitcoin.

Finally, the numbers are out and the market immediately pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike to nearly 90%, up from around 70% yesterday. And just like you predicted, and as usual, the market got pretty volatile. Bitcoin dropped to $76k before bouncing back to $79k shortly after.

According to CME, the market is now pretty much convinced that rate are gonna go up, but its hard to tell how Bitcoin is gonna move after 9/15 with everything going on. The market expects Fed to hike rates, yet Bitcoin is going up? That's pretty confusing, tbh.

It seems inevitable with how desperate Trump looks right now - trying to offer $5k bribes (that will only make the debt situation worse), Japan trying to dump US bonds to save their own currency and the pathetic attempts by the current central bank crony to buy back long dated debt by issuing shorter dated debt - making the problem worse by pushing it for the next hopefully responsible leader to deal with in a shorter time frame. Altogether the US is looking shambolic right now and all of these things are causing inflation to head back up again, partly because oil costs leak into that and Trump also insisting on using tarriffs - which are primarily punishing Americans - like they're going out of fashion. This is snowballing into something much worse and he's too stupid to reverse course on the important things.

[Wind_FURY]

In about one hour, August's inflation print/numbers will be announced and the Federal Reserve's decision in September 15 will depend on how high, or low, that number might be.

The markets will be more volatile than expected. Don't Panic, just HODL your precious Bitcoin.

Finally, the numbers are out and the market immediately pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike to nearly 90%, up from around 70% yesterday. And just like you predicted, and as usual, the market got pretty volatile. Bitcoin dropped to $76k before bouncing back to $79k shortly after.

According to CME, the market is now pretty much convinced that rate are gonna go up, but its hard to tell how Bitcoin is gonna move after 9/15 with everything going on. The market expects Fed to hike rates, yet Bitcoin is going up? That's pretty confusing, tbh.

The market was confused. It went down to $76,000, then surged to $79,000, then it went down again, and trapped those leveraged "traders" who FOMO bought while it was surging.

   

Plus the European Central Bank raised their rates by 25 Basis Points. Liquidity in that region of the world will start going down.

[BALIK]

The market was confused. It went down to $76,000, then surged to $79,000, then it went down again, and trapped those leveraged "traders" who FOMO bought while it was surging.

   

Plus the European Central Bank raised their rates by 25 Basis Points. Liquidity in that region of the world will start going down.

CPI was released, and gold, Btc and stock all got hit at first before bouncing back pretty strongly. But just a few hour later, they slowly pulled back and returned to around where they were before the CPI release. 

Yess, the market was pretty chaotic. From what I saw, yesterday's move looked more like an excuse to hunt for liquidity than news that clearly set the direction for the market.

I also read about the EU raising rate. Do you think the Fed will hike? As for me, I think they'll keep rate unchanged.

[Wind_FURY]

The market was confused. It went down to $76,000, then surged to $79,000, then it went down again, and trapped those leveraged "traders" who FOMO bought while it was surging.

   

Plus the European Central Bank raised their rates by 25 Basis Points. Liquidity in that region of the world will start going down.

CPI was released, and gold, Btc and stock all got hit at first before bouncing back pretty strongly. But just a few hour later, they slowly pulled back and returned to around where they were before the CPI release. 

Yess, the market was pretty chaotic. From what I saw, yesterday's move looked more like an excuse to hunt for liquidity than news that clearly set the direction for the market.

I also read about the EU raising rate. Do you think the Fed will hike? As for me, I think they'll keep rate unchanged.

Perhaps it was, because the actual people who profit from the market knew that there would be leveraged PLEBS that would short sell which they liquidated, and leveraged PLEBS that would buy, which the also liquidated.

     

The money they lost would be more useful if those fellow PLEBS merely denominated it in Bitcoin.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

FOMC Meeting will happen in four to five hours.

  👀

They will decide if the Federal Funds Rate will be raises, lowered, or held. But if it's going to be increased, has the market already priced that in? Or will there be market panic and the prices go down?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[abhiseshakana]

Bump.

FOMC Meeting will happen in four to five hours.

  👀

They will decide if the Federal Funds Rate will be raises, lowered, or held. But if it's going to be increased, has the market already priced that in? Or will there be market panic and the prices go down?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

All commitee member vote for interest rate hike with consideration inflation still high and domestic spending still show its resilience. FED also give a clue that in the end year if inflation does not decline to expected target 2% then durther rate adjustment maybe implemented.

And as predicted, Trump pressing and demanding aggressive interest rate cuts, he urging the Fed to immediately cut interest rates to 1% or even lower. So far the facts show Warsh's independence, next we will see more of the Trump and Warsh conflict.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/transkrip-asli-pernyataan-pembuka-konferensi-pers-hasil-fomc-kevin-warsh
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/trump-fed-interest-rate-warsh.html

[CryptoBuds]

So far the facts show Warsh's independence, next we will see more of the Trump and Warsh conflict.

The real disagreement is between Trump and the Fed, not just with any single Fed member.
Trump putting pressure on Powell and eventually getting him fired was just a strategy to get more people close to him into the Fed. That way, he can increase his chances of getting more votes in support of the policies he wants.

The recent rate hike got full support from all 12 FOMC members. That's why Trump mentioned the Fed directly instead of naming any particular person in his latest statement about the rate hike. Trump has no reason to criticize Warsh when all 11 other members supported the rate hike, instead of being divided like they were before Powell.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

FOMC Meeting will happen in four to five hours.

  👀

They will decide if the Federal Funds Rate will be raises, lowered, or held. But if it's going to be increased, has the market already priced that in? Or will there be market panic and the prices go down?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

All commitee member vote for interest rate hike with consideration inflation still high and domestic spending still show its resilience. FED also give a clue that in the end year if inflation does not decline to expected target 2% then durther rate adjustment maybe implemented.

And as predicted, Trump pressing and demanding aggressive interest rate cuts, he urging the Fed to immediately cut interest rates to 1% or even lower. So far the facts show Warsh's independence, next we will see more of the Trump and Warsh conflict.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/transkrip-asli-pernyataan-pembuka-konferensi-pers-hasil-fomc-kevin-warsh
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/trump-fed-interest-rate-warsh.html

Laughable to see what actually happened because it was the Orange Man who wanted Kevin Warsh to sit as the Federal Reserve chairman. Although, he was probably influenced by one of his larger donators during the election.

Bitcoin reacted OK. There was no panic selling, and volatility was a largely stable during the announcement.

The next FOMC meeting will be in October.

[Ayers]

Bump.

FOMC Meeting will happen in four to five hours.

  👀

They will decide if the Federal Funds Rate will be raises, lowered, or held. But if it's going to be increased, has the market already priced that in? Or will there be market panic and the prices go down?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

All commitee member vote for interest rate hike with consideration inflation still high and domestic spending still show its resilience. FED also give a clue that in the end year if inflation does not decline to expected target 2% then durther rate adjustment maybe implemented.

And as predicted, Trump pressing and demanding aggressive interest rate cuts, he urging the Fed to immediately cut interest rates to 1% or even lower. So far the facts show Warsh's independence, next we will see more of the Trump and Warsh conflict.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/transkrip-asli-pernyataan-pembuka-konferensi-pers-hasil-fomc-kevin-warsh
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/trump-fed-interest-rate-warsh.html

Laughable to see what actually happened because it was the Orange Man who wanted Kevin Warsh to sit as the Federal Reserve chairman. Although, he was probably influenced by one of his larger donators during the election.

Bitcoin reacted OK. There was no panic selling, and volatility was a largely stable during the announcement.

The next FOMC meeting will be in October.

but Warsh don't decide the rate by himself tho. far as i know it's gotta go through a vote.

maybe that's because the rate hike was already expected and bitcoin had already priced it in quite a bit.

still 2 more fomc meetings left this year, october and december. if war don't stop, energy prices stay up, another hike before year end ain't exactly off the table.

[abhiseshakana]

Bump.

FOMC Meeting will happen in four to five hours.

  👀

They will decide if the Federal Funds Rate will be raises, lowered, or held. But if it's going to be increased, has the market already priced that in? Or will there be market panic and the prices go down?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

All commitee member vote for interest rate hike with consideration inflation still high and domestic spending still show its resilience. FED also give a clue that in the end year if inflation does not decline to expected target 2% then durther rate adjustment maybe implemented.

And as predicted, Trump pressing and demanding aggressive interest rate cuts, he urging the Fed to immediately cut interest rates to 1% or even lower. So far the facts show Warsh's independence, next we will see more of the Trump and Warsh conflict.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/transkrip-asli-pernyataan-pembuka-konferensi-pers-hasil-fomc-kevin-warsh
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/trump-fed-interest-rate-warsh.html

Laughable to see what actually happened because it was the Orange Man who wanted Kevin Warsh to sit as the Federal Reserve chairman. Although, he was probably influenced by one of his larger donators during the election.

Bitcoin reacted OK. There was no panic selling, and volatility was a largely stable during the announcement.

The next FOMC meeting will be in October.

but Warsh don't decide the rate by himself tho. far as i know it's gotta go through a vote.

maybe that's because the rate hike was already expected and bitcoin had already priced it in quite a bit.

still 2 more fomc meetings left this year, october and december. if war don't stop, energy prices stay up, another hike before year end ain't exactly off the table.

Actually, i rather confused about what Trump is thinking to choose Warsh. Considering since April 2026 before nominated on confirmation hearing at the Senate Banking Committee, when Trump signaling a desire for easing, Wars, in fact, emphasizes taht he never promised a sepecific rate decision to Trump and would not agree to such a request, He stated that he would become an independent actor. I think this is This is the most obvious starting point.

On Jackson Hole August 2026, i see differences in policy frameworks. When trump continuously promote low interest rates, Warsh increasingly showing the fed's independence with his statement such as impressed by the economy strengthening, while inflation remains too high so fed still has homework because 2% is firm target quiet fed. This absolutely contrary to the direction Trump desires.

The last FOMC on September 2026, has become a genuine policy conflict between Warsh & Trump, we see differences in actual monetary policy. Warsh not an anti Trump, He just consistent separating monetary policy from the executive's political preferences.

I feel the FOMC results 12-0 is a very strong institutional signal. Warsh, Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook , other board member and reserve bank president choose tightening, which mean they make monetary policy decisions by taking a wide range of data into account and achieve the same economic assessment not only figures which Trump frequently voices.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

FOMC Meeting will happen in four to five hours.

  👀

They will decide if the Federal Funds Rate will be raises, lowered, or held. But if it's going to be increased, has the market already priced that in? Or will there be market panic and the prices go down?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

All commitee member vote for interest rate hike with consideration inflation still high and domestic spending still show its resilience. FED also give a clue that in the end year if inflation does not decline to expected target 2% then durther rate adjustment maybe implemented.

And as predicted, Trump pressing and demanding aggressive interest rate cuts, he urging the Fed to immediately cut interest rates to 1% or even lower. So far the facts show Warsh's independence, next we will see more of the Trump and Warsh conflict.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/transkrip-asli-pernyataan-pembuka-konferensi-pers-hasil-fomc-kevin-warsh
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/trump-fed-interest-rate-warsh.html

Laughable to see what actually happened because it was the Orange Man who wanted Kevin Warsh to sit as the Federal Reserve chairman. Although, he was probably influenced by one of his larger donators during the election.

Bitcoin reacted OK. There was no panic selling, and volatility was a largely stable during the announcement.

The next FOMC meeting will be in October.

but Warsh don't decide the rate by himself tho. far as i know it's gotta go through a vote.

maybe that's because the rate hike was already expected and bitcoin had already priced it in quite a bit.

still 2 more fomc meetings left this year, october and december. if war don't stop, energy prices stay up, another hike before year end ain't exactly off the table.

The vote was 12 - 0, ser. That could also suggest that during the next FOMC meeting on October 28, it might be another 25 bps increase. Kevin Warsh also suggested that they believe that the U.S. economy is strong enough to endure another cycle of tightening.

But personally, they'll overcompensate and PIVOT when the economy starts breaking.