How's the weather? Sunny with a chance of $?

[Hispo]

I was aware it was possible to access markets specifically intended for gamblers to bet on the weather on specific regions of the United States or Europe, but I always thought I had not business betting on those markets as I don't live there in those countries and the only source of information I would have in the case I wanted to bet, would be the weather forecast, which is public information and something most of those gamblers have already taken a look at before placing their bets, so I would be in a disadvantage against the rest of the bettors whole live in the city whose weather i am betting in.
If there was a market for people of my city to bet, I would give it a chance and see if I am a good weather forecaster and can capitalize some profit out of it, in the mean time I would rather focus on sports and some casinos games I already know.

[Odusko]

This is more reasonable out of all the options provided on the poly market but considering the fact that I'm not in NYC I can't place a bet on it. It's okay to bet on this even though you don't live in that particular region, after all it's a bet. Personally, I would only bet on the whether In my own country, this doesn't mean I have a guarantee of getting it right but I would have high chances of making the right predictions

I think what will help alot of interested gambler on this weather bet is that, poly market should allow the bet open to players based on the geographical location because countries have their speculiar weather results and for that letting gambler to bet based on their own country and location will help a lot, but poly market is not available in all the countries around the world.

[Patikno]

Then, how about the weather?
Does anyone have a problem with betting on the weather?  

I don't think there is a problem with betting on the weather, because I don't think there have been any incidents that have happened to it, unless we are betting on weather that has the potential to cause an incident like a tornado, or even betting on weather that has the potential to cause casualties. So, in conclusion, what you mentioned would be fine, but I think it would be difficult to predict which weather is not in our area or its surroundings, because we can more easily predict the weather if we can predict it through previous events, which we can usually find out through that. Actually, this is interesting, but it has the risk of many wrong guesses if it is on me

[Fundamentals Of]

I don't see any problem betting on the weather. I don't even mind if weather agencies and bureaus are giving forecasts every hour of the day. They are mostly wrong anyway. With all their knowledge, equipment, charts, etc. it seems their predictions are not much different from gamblers' predictions.

I remembered our local weather bureau reminding us to bring our umbrellas during the day because there's a high chance of rain. There was no rain but they were so right about the umbrellas. The sun was angry.

[danherbias07]

I like this. But maybe it is my country's weather.

I mean, I am not really knowledgeable about the weather of the United States of America, but I know there are a lot of fans of their weather, especially fathers.
If it is betting on our country's weather, then I might really join in and try my luck if I have the right prediction about it. I always drop my wife off in the morning at her office, so I do try to look at the weather first, especially this rainy season in our city. So, I do sometimes have an idea of what might happen the next day, although it's not always accurate. Still, it's a good way to have some fun with a bit of money at risk.

[giammangiato]

I have thought a lot about this type of bet and I only have one doubt, especially if you bet on the temperature.
For example, if I want to know the temperature in my area right now and I go and look at several important websites
that deal with weather, they will have different data (by a little) but it would still not be an exact result for the bet.
On what data is the bet based? Maybe I missed something.

[traderethereum]

I think that will be fine to betting on the weather. That will be general thing that we can bet than to the specific thing such as religion, war, life, or else. Its like we bet for fun and not too serious and no hard feeling.

Besides that, if we only use small funds to bet, that will be okay because we don't risk too much. Gamblers can bet on anything they like and not take too long to see the result and who will be the winner.

[Kelward]

Crazy! This is really cool, the idea is brilliant, fun and above all original.
Betting on war is a pain just to talk about, betting on the coming of Christ well it is bordering on madness, but betting on the weather with the help of meteorology and the various tools to calculate the climate, could be a winning idea!
It never ceases to amaze me.

I can totally relate with betting on the weather, a bettor can get busy and analyze what they think the weather will be and hopefully make money off it. Better than some prediction bets that I've seen on this board which many people with moral values and deep respect for human lives cannot consider to bet on. It's ok to bet on the weather, elections and the rest, it'll it is fun especially when you're using small money for it, you won't bother whether you win or lose. I think prediction bets are here to stay, let us bet on what our conscience allows.

[Zlantann]

I have thought a lot about this type of bet and I only have one doubt, especially if you bet on the temperature.
For example, if I want to know the temperature in my area right now and I go and look at several important websites
that deal with weather, they will have different data (by a little) but it would still not be an exact result for the bet.
On what data is the bet based? Maybe I missed something.

You asked a very important question. Different weather forecast channels might give different temperature readings at a particular time. The issue might now be which prediction will be used to determine the winner. Maybe the government-controlled weather agency might be the best to determine the condition at a time. Privately owned platforms might be biased in their reports. But it seems the betting will not be in specific temperatures at a particular time. But general bets like "New York City would have the highest temperature today". Wth this it will be easy to determine winners.

[viljy]

Well... If I were a meteorologist, I would definitely bet on the weather. I suppose it would be something like a reliable business for me. However, it is possible that this is exactly the case for someone. Weather forecasting technologies have made great strides.
And here's another interesting piece of news https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2025-06-24/spanish-mathematician-javier-gomez-serrano-and-google-deepmind-team-up-to-solve-the-navier-stokes-million-dollar-problem.html
If scientists solve this problem with the help of AI, they will be able to even more accurately predict the movement of air masses, and hence the weather.

[Moreno233]

And yeah ladies and gentlemen, the volume the continous betting on NYC temperature has a volume of $45 million, 38 for Chicago, and 20 mills for Denver, at which point I am willing to bet with any non-American that 9 out 10 will need 5 tries to point it on amap with a radious of 100 miles!

So, to put things into perspective, Americans are betting on the daily weather in 3 cities, the daily GDP of Salvador!

This is absolutely funny and shows how people will be able to integrate gambling into their daily lives. Let's keep the risk aside, I can imagine the level of fun that comes with this type of gambling. This is also a pointer to how much gambling can influence our daily lives in the  future.

It is becoming obvious that America maintain the number one spot in gambling.  As a kid , I watch several American movies that has different types of gambling activities.

[bubilas]

If I get no takers after this, I give up!  

People hated :
- the idea of betting on war (not my topic)
- betting on the return of Christ because of morality
- taking a bet on the 2028 election cause it's too early

Then, how about the weather?
Does anyone have a problem with betting on the weather?  

And yeah ladies and gentlemen, the volume the continous betting on NYC temperature has a volume of $45 million, 38 for Chicago, and 20 mills for Denver, at which point I am willing to bet with any non-American that 9 out 10 will need 5 tries to point it on amap with a radious of 100 miles!

So, to put things into perspective, Americans are betting on the daily weather in 3 cities, the daily GDP of Salvador!

Any takers?

This is already absolute madness and the last extreme of adequacy. As an example, we can start looking: in which direction will a cockroach run, which we will put on the table and will bet on it.
However, it is hard to argue with the fact that such crazy things that people bet on show the very essence of the casino, that in fact it does not matter what we bet on, we just need excitement and some unstable chances of the outcome, and that's it: everyone will be ready to have fun and watch it.

[Oshosondy]

This is already absolute madness and the last extreme of adequacy. As an example, we can start looking: in which direction will a cockroach run, which we will put on the table and will bet on it.
However, it is hard to argue with the fact that such crazy things that people bet on show the very essence of the casino, that in fact it does not matter what we bet on, we just need excitement and some unstable chances of the outcome, and that's it: everyone will be ready to have fun and watch it.

If this is absolute madness, that means all games and bets are absolute madness. I think so people will do it for money and not just only fun, but also fun though. Do not be surprised if cockroach that can run in just many directions is brought to a casino for people to gamble on which direction it will run to, do not be surprised that people will bet on it. That is how gambling has been and it is also fun to watch.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I learned that meteorologists have their professional ways of studying the weather and climate change before forecasting the weather conditions, so how is it possible that a non meteorologist can accurately read and state what the weather will look like for that day or are those set of gamblers going to bet just based on random assumption of what the weather will do that day? Am not familiar with this kinds of bet so am just asking out of curiosity. What if meteorologists who knows about the weather too well involves in this kind of bet, would they not be so profitable? I just keep wondering, man, @stompix.

[yahoo62278]

There are tons of weather apps out there that can give you a fairly decent range of what the temperature of anywhere in the world will be. How can they possibly make money betting this? Seems like they would lose and lose big honestly.

I feel like they are making up bets for just about anything these days. As if there is not enough to be on already. It's kind of getting ridiculous if ya ask me.

[stompix]

There are tons of weather apps out there that can give you a fairly decent range of what the temperature of anywhere in the world will be. How can they possibly make money betting this? Seems like they would lose and lose big honestly.

The market can't lose, they make money out of the fees.
Anyhow, here is the link to the bet
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhighny/highest-temperature-in-nyc
for today


so you have most of the bets in between 82^o and 87^o for people using normal Celsius, it's between 27.77C and 30.55C, so quite the tight spot, I don't know a single app that would be able to claim it can nail it to 1 degree Celsius, for example, Accuweather warned me Thursday of 33C and it ended 36C max.

I think the only possible way to game this is to wait till the last minute and do some averages from all apps to maybe come close to what the NWS will agree the temperature was. Honestly, I will look into this, check on three apps what they say one day before for the next day, and see what the actual result was.

[OgNasty]

I like the fact that you rhymed sunny and money in the title. Kudos for that. I’m going to steal that and use it going forward.

Where I’m at it is no joke though. We’re already touching 110 degrees. I’m having to wake up at 6am to do my outside activities. Even then it is 80 degrees outside…

[KTChampions]

The market can't lose, they make money out of the fees.
Anyhow, here is the link to the bet
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhighny/highest-temperature-in-nyc
for today


so you have most of the bets in between 82^o and 87^o for people using normal Celsius, it's between 27.77C and 30.55C, so quite the tight spot, I don't know a single app that would be able to claim it can nail it to 1 degree Celsius, for example, Accuweather warned me Thursday of 33C and it ended 36C max.

I think the only possible way to game this is to wait till the last minute and do some averages from all apps to maybe come close to what the NWS will agree the temperature was. Honestly, I will look into this, check on three apps what they say one day before for the next day, and see what the actual result was.

I think you need to earn here not by guessing but by trading odds. Right now I checked the quotes and they are already slightly different, that is, if you have a bet that has moved in the right direction, then you can already close it in profit. The question is what is the platform commission? If it is small enough not to interfere with constantly buying and selling odds, then I would look at trading as a way to make a profit. The most important thing is to understand what levels are fair in order to trade deviations from them.

[DaNNy001]

I can bet on the weather you know! Very possible If I am residing over there, and to be honest I will surely win in many bet, since I dont see it as big deal.

If you understand data and trends very well, betting on the weather of any country wont be a serious problem, as long as you fit make close predictions anyone can win. Also, as long as it has nothing to do with betting on spiritual things too.

It seems easy until you actually get started with it, sometimes betting on the weather can be very complicated especially when the weather is tricky, these are some obstacles you would face when you are betting on this... betting on the weather seems fair enough, but the weather is something that cannot always be predicated or controlled, the goal is to entertain yourself with the game

[|MINER|]

If I get no takers after this, I give up!  

People hated :
- the idea of betting on war (not my topic)
- betting on the return of Christ because of morality
- taking a bet on the 2028 election cause it's too early

Then, how about the weather?
Does anyone have a problem with betting on the weather?  

I think betting on weather is much better than betting on the three topics discussed above. Because these things make me cringe more. I actually came across all three of the above topics, but I didn't try to comment on any of them because they weren't very interesting.
But to be honest, when I enter the poly market, I feel like dying laughing when I see the different types of betting categories. I'm actually more worried about how many more worst bets could come out here, especially with this huge amount of volume.