Sports bookies versus predictions market - main differences explained!

[stompix]

Starting from the topic here I saw a lot of comments, a lot of opinions, but I don't know how magically almost everyone missed the point about those true differences
So let's go and create a bit of an info topic about it

Assumptions
1) Bookies are about sports, prediction markets are about other events
FALSE

Bookies can have politics
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
and .......Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest
https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets/nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest/11973705

Polymarket has also sports
https://polymarket.com/sports/live

2) Bookies are centralized entities, polymarket is decentralized
Quite false

Yeah, all sports bookies are centralized, but Polymarket is run by a US company, running on a centralized platform, and it has people in charge of results, which might end in situations like this https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-720742-20250326
So no, Polymarket is quasi-decentralized, more in branding than reality!

2) Predictions market run on blockchain, they use only crypto are non-custodial
FALSE

While Polymarket only uses crypto, Predictit uses only fiat and Kalshi simply accepts crypto as deposits.
Neither Kalshi nor Predictit have any blockchain running!

Now, back to the main differences in actual play

• With sports bookies, you bet against the odds the bookie gives you, it's either a yes or no on that bet.
  With a prediction market, you bet against other users, it's a market, so you buy options at one price and your bet is essentially on people trading against you, without digging deeper and making it easier to understand, buy cheap, sell at a higher price!
  
• There is a slight resemblence in this and cashing-out, meanign that if you bought "yes" at 4 cents and now it's 8 cents it would be quite the same as cashing out on a bet you took at 6x when your team is leading by 2-0 and the odds have dropped to 1.5 or something. But that's as much as it can go!
  
• Another difference in the style of gambling/trading is that you can set your bets, you can't have a waiting bet if, for example, in Botafogo vs Plameira you think Botafogo is too low at 3.5 and you would want to place it only at 5x, you can't do that with a sport bookie, but in a markt exchange you can place your bid wall at 20 cents per dollar, it might never get filled but it's an option you have.
  
• Another major difference, you will not have parlays on a prediction market, so no combining two bets, unlike with a sports bookie.
  
• Unlike bookies, with most predictions, market settlements are being made according to sources, which poses a real problem, like this bet:
  https://polymarket.com/event/fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july
  Good luck reaching a result that will be accepted by everyone!

Finally, do traditional bookies have something like this?
Yes, they have, it's called an exchange, offered by bookies like Betfair or Matchbook, which run quite on the same principle as a prediction market!


I hope I covered the main differences with this, if I missed something, reply and I will add it!

[Charles-Tim]

2) Bookies are centralized entities, polymarket is decentralized
Quit

I have always tell people that what they thought are decentralized are not entirely decentralized. Four things that I saw decentralization are bitcoin network, decentralized file storage, Tor and Bisq. Those web3 platforms that are having a central server, that is enough to know that they are centralized. Anything decentralized must begin with decentralized nodes. I do not have smerit right now, I will visit this thread again.

[Mia Chloe]

So basically what you're saying is a lot of folks are missing the real deal when it comes to bookies versus prediction markets. Actually with a bookie it's  basically you against their odds kinda like a simple yes or no. But with a prediction market it's kinda like a true market. you're trading against other people trying to buy low and sell high.
Actually the big difference isn't really decentralization or crypto it's mostly how you play (fixed odds with a bookie). Most times close odds can be a trap by bookies too you may be tempted to pick the slightly higher one instead.

[stompix]

I have always tell people that what they thought are decentralized are not entirely decentralized. Four things that I saw decentralization are bitcoin network, decentralized file storage, Tor and Bisq. Those web3 platforms that are having a central server, that is enough to know that they are centralized.

Yeah, I got tired of "decentralized" and "web3" casinos, they advertise all this and then the netx step is KYC 

So basically what you're saying is a lot of folks are missing the real deal when it comes to bookies versus prediction markets. Actually with a bookie it's  basically you against their odds kinda like a simple yes or no. But with a prediction market it's kinda like a true market. you're trading against other people trying to buy low and sell high.

Yup, pretty simple, just like that and I was wondering why so many completely missed the point in that topic.
It's a prediction market, so obviously there must be sellers and buyers there, in a sportbook, you open the book like a menu and you choose  !

Anyhow, is quite funny, when I make an informative topic about laws or rules or types of betting, the topic dies at 2 pages, when I create some like betting on Jesus, it goes to 5 pages in a day!

[alani123]

Polymarket users did something impressive with US elections predicting every state right. But other than that it's not a good platform for betting.

I've written about this here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5480541.0

The platform's users can manipulate outcomes and close a market to whatever they want. Maybe Polymarket has tons of markets open but the smaller ones often close at the exact opposite outcome other than reality itself. I wouldn't trust it even with 10$ to be honest. Because what if the weird closing happens on you? What if those not afraid to practice manipulation end up targeting you?

If it happens once, it has the potential to happen all the time too.

[peter0425]

2) Bookies are centralized entities, polymarket is decentralized
Quite false

Yeah, all sports bookies are centralized, but Polymarket is run by a US company, running on a centralized platform, and it has people in charge of results, which might end in situations like this https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-720742-20250326
So no, Polymarket is quasi-decentralized, more in branding than reality!

Thank you for this clarification. I have always wondered why people thought polymarket was a decentralized platform just because it drives away from the traditional casinos we know of. Maybe also because of its involvement in some issues before in France where they blocked the use of this site. One search and you can see that it is a company based on USA. Maybe because it is defined as crypto based betting site hence the assumption that it is decentralized.

• Another major difference, you will not have parlays on a prediction market, so no combining two bets, unlike with a sports bookie.
  

Good to know for those planning to bet on sports using polymarket.

[Mia Chloe]

Anyhow, is quite funny, when I make an informative topic about laws or rules or types of betting, the topic dies at 2 pages, when I create some like betting on Jesus, it goes to 5 pages in a day!

You hardly find organic discussions on the gambling board and discussions like this require you to actually understand the context of what the person is talking about and not just some random talk about addiction and odds. Basically I found this post way below in the page virtually almost at page 2 because I was looking for a post that wasn't a mega tread like most ones on the gambling board.

The part that talks about betting on Jesus is something that I don't think even any religion would allow besides virtually almost all religion are against gambling in general.

[Haunebu]

Interesting topic op! Am a fan of these prediction sites to be honest and I like Polymarket the most primarily because of its liquidity, zero fees and variety of markets. They are quite similar to betting exchanges, but they don't allow lay betting.

One of the best things that I noticed about Polymarket is its terrific odds on all sports markets at certain amounts(Not all). Other sites like Predicit, Kalshi etc have major cons like high fees, compulsory KYC etc. SX.Bet is better in comparison.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

I hope I covered the main differences with this, if I missed something, reply and I will add it!

Sure, you covered a lot and many thanks for that. You know at some time I was considering patronizing poly markets because of its projected decentralization, thinking it is another casino environment, But I'm glad I stumbled on this now and I'm sure am never going there. I love the parlays and betting on outcomes that are certain how it operates in sports betting and not those clearly manipulated like you've outlined in poly markets. Prediction market is another trading environment for sports outcomes.

Anyhow, is quite funny, when I make an informative topic about laws or rules or types of betting, the topic dies at 2 pages, when I create some like betting on Jesus, it goes to 5 pages in a day!

It is simple, most people on the gambling section are always in a hurry to complete their post count, and joining with the fact that merit isn't freely flowing here, They are not interested in reading meaning into posts in order to contribute beautifully. Your explanation holds much value, but it's long and only those disciplined to extensive reading would really want to patiently go through it.