Before Bitcoin hits 1 000 000 usd, it falls below 10 000 usd

[JaanusRaim]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

[EarnOnVictor]

I disagree with you that Bitcoin is overvalued, but I would rather say that it's expensive at the current price. Being expensive doesn't mean it can't move higher, or doesn't have the right to, so let's be guided.

Also, I don't see how Bitcoin would hit $10,000 as you predicted anymore. Go through its history, and you would realise that it has not been hitting 10% of its ATH in recent history, let alone 1%.

Aside from the history, Bitcoin's price is being solidified with diehard investors' funds and those of institutional investors. These alone should stabilise the price above $10,000.

[Stalker22]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

What does "100% acceptance rate" even mean?  Its a meaningless term.  It would be naive to assume that everyone in world has a Bitcoin wallet.  Thats never going to happen.  Not everyone has a bank account - let alone the idea of 8 billion people holding their own keys of their Bitcoin wallts.

Besides, your numbers are totally made up.  The claim that at "100% acceptance" Bitcoin would be worth a million dollars is speculative projection, not a fact.  Its a number often used by analysts when calculating market caps, not public use.  For instance, if Bitcoins market cap reached that of gold.  But whos to say Bitcoin cant outperform all other assets by market cap?  Bitcoin supply is a fixed and much scarcer asset, so anything is possible.

[famososMuertos]

It seems like your idea is just a lot of hot air. I mean, if you have an analysis of something, just because someone establishes numbers based on a percentage doesn't automatically make it valid.

Establishing your own parameters leads to speculative theories. In this case, OP, what we're discussing now isn't your speculative price, but rather your technical analysis.

[Ultegra134]

Okay, let's suppose that you're right about Bitcoin being overvalued (which I don't fully agree, but I'll go with the flow), why are you correlating its price by its acceptance levels, and how do you determine them? Do you mean if it can be used for daily conveniences, regular payments etc, or am I understanding something else? Because if so, you're clearly mistaken as it'll never be 100%, let alone 10%, that still sounds too much. How do you also claim that it's likely to fall below $10,000?

[JaanusRaim]

Okay, let's suppose that you're right about Bitcoin being overvalued (which I don't fully agree, but I'll go with the flow), why are you correlating its price by its acceptance levels, and how do you determine them? Do you mean if it can be used for daily conveniences, regular payments etc, or am I understanding something else? Because if so, you're clearly mistaken as it'll never be 100%, let alone 10%, that still sounds too much. How do you also claim that it's likely to fall below $10,000?

I calculate the Bitcoin "right" price level via acceptance because I see it as the most important determinant of Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) price.

How I determine the acceptance rate? It is much harder to answer. Yes using Bitcoin for regular payments is one part of this but there are many other functions of money as well. USD acceptance rate is near 100% now. If Bitcoin is accepted just as USD, then its price is justified to be near one million USD. Not ten millions, not 100 000. Do you imagine one Bitcoin to cost 10 000 000 usd (in nowadays usd purchasing power) even if Bitcoin is fully accepted ? I think, you do not - because there is hardly so many wealth in the world to able this.

[Odusko]

I am not sure if we will ever see Bitcoin at $10,000 again we have gone beyond that time now since we have witnessed a lot of resistance in the price but none have been able to take Bitcoin down that dip as it will be a trouble stage for all and Many investors will definitely get disappointed at that results.

[JaanusRaim]

I disagree with you that Bitcoin is overvalued, but I would rather say that it's expensive at the current price. Being expensive doesn't mean it can't move higher, or doesn't have the right to, so let's be guided.

Also, I don't see how Bitcoin would hit $10,000 as you predicted anymore. Go through its history, and you would realise that it has not been hitting 10% of its ATH in recent history, let alone 1%.

Aside from the history, Bitcoin's price is being solidified with diehard investors' funds and those of institutional investors. These alone should stabilise the price above $10,000.

Yes, Bitcoin is never fallen below 10% its ATH (with one exception: second part of 2011). But Bitcoin has never seen an economic crises as well. The following creases seems to be deeper than the 2008 one because the boom accumulation has been much greater than in the previous time (before 2008). The bigger boom - the bigger room (for crisis).

[Ultegra134]

I calculate the Bitcoin "right" price level via acceptance because I see it as the most important determinant of Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) price.

How I determine the acceptance rate? It is much harder to answer. Yes using Bitcoin for regular payments is one part of this but there are many other functions of money as well. USD acceptance rate is near 100% now. If Bitcoin is accepted just as USD, then its price is justified to be near one million USD. Not ten millions, not 100 000. Do you imagine one Bitcoin to cost 10 000 000 usd (in nowadays usd purchasing power) even if Bitcoin is fully accepted ? I think, you do not - because there is hardly so many wealth in the world to able this.

Okay, I see your point, but how are you so confident that the Bitcoin's acceptance rate will increase by that much? It'll definitely see an rise in the upcoming years because it has become way too mainstream after it surpassed $100,000, but in no ideal world would it even be close in competing the U.S. dollar and most certainly won't replace fiat currencies. This wasn't Bitcoin's intended purpose either. And according to you, what would happen if the acceptance rate doesn't budge and stays the same?

[luckyspirit]

Are you kidding? If you are serious, you are an idiot.

Yes, Bitcoin is never fallen below 10% its ATH (with one exception: second part of 2011). But Bitcoin has never seen an economic crises as well. The following creases seems to be deeper than the 2008 one because the boom accumulation has been much greater than in the previous time (before 2008). The bigger boom - the bigger room (for crisis).

Bitcoin has survived all kinds of crises. There has been crisis after crisis since it has been created. Everything short of WW3 and complete economic collapse. If you believe that you are right then take out a loan using everything you own as collateral and short Bitcoin with 100x leverage. If you won't, then you are just being an fraudulent idiot with threads like this.  

And according to you, what would happen if the acceptance rate doesn't budge and stays the same?

Nothing in the world stays the same, ever, so why would Bitcoin's acceptnace rate stay the same? I can't believe you are trying to pretend you are seriously responding to this stupid topic.

[JaanusRaim]

I calculate the Bitcoin "right" price level via acceptance because I see it as the most important determinant of Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) price.

How I determine the acceptance rate? It is much harder to answer. Yes using Bitcoin for regular payments is one part of this but there are many other functions of money as well. USD acceptance rate is near 100% now. If Bitcoin is accepted just as USD, then its price is justified to be near one million USD. Not ten millions, not 100 000. Do you imagine one Bitcoin to cost 10 000 000 usd (in nowadays usd purchasing power) even if Bitcoin is fully accepted ? I think, you do not - because there is hardly so many wealth in the world to able this.

Okay, I see your point, but how are you so confident that the Bitcoin's acceptance rate will increase by that much? It'll definitely see an rise in the upcoming years because it has become way too mainstream after it surpassed $100,000, but in no ideal world would it even be close in competing the U.S. dollar and most certainly won't replace fiat currencies. This wasn't Bitcoin's intended purpose either. And according to you, what would happen if the acceptance rate doesn't budge and stays the same?

I do not know how much Bitcoin acceptance rate will increase. Yes, it is possible that it stagnates or even fall - I think the BTC price will follow that sooner or later (or rather sooner).

Yes, Bitcoin is interesting thing, very interesting , but I have seen repeatedly that this quality does not cause huge popularity.
 

[JaanusRaim]

Are you kidding? If you are serious, you are an idiot.

Yes, Bitcoin is never fallen below 10% its ATH (with one exception: second part of 2011). But Bitcoin has never seen an economic crises as well. The following creases seems to be deeper than the 2008 one because the boom accumulation has been much greater than in the previous time (before 2008). The bigger boom - the bigger room (for crisis).

Bitcoin has survived all kinds of crises. There has been crisis after crisis since it has been created. Everything short of WW3 and complete economic collapse. If you believe that you are right then take out a loan using everything you own as collateral and short Bitcoin with 100x leverage. If you won't, then you are just being an fraudulent idiot with threads like this.  

And according to you, what would happen if the acceptance rate doesn't budge and stays the same?

Nothing in the world stays the same, ever, so why would Bitcoin's acceptnace rate stay the same? I can't believe you are trying to pretend you are seriously responding to this stupid topic.

Yes, there have been many many micro-level (or crypto-specific) crisis, but no macro-level economic crisis like 2008 or 1929 during Bitcoin lifetime.

[luckyspirit]

Yes, there have been many many micro-level (or crypto-specific) crisis, but no macro-level economic crisis like 2008 or 1929 during Bitcoin lifetime.

Then short it or you are just full of shit. Show us your open short positions. 

[lionheart78]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

Bitcoin is indeed overvalued, but I think it won't fall below 30k, thus the bottom may not reach $10k as you stated on the title.  Besides, many institutions are now acquiring Bitcoin for long-term holding.

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

If an economic crisis emerges and the value of fiat currency plummet I believe people will convert their currency to Bitcoin to preserve its value.  With funds flowing into Bitcoin I think this will be the time when the golden years of Bitcoin will happen.  We can possibly see the price of Bitcoin increase to an unimaginable height.

[Stalker22]

Okay, let's suppose that you're right about Bitcoin being overvalued (which I don't fully agree, but I'll go with the flow), why are you correlating its price by its acceptance levels, and how do you determine them? Do you mean if it can be used for daily conveniences, regular payments etc, or am I understanding something else? Because if so, you're clearly mistaken as it'll never be 100%, let alone 10%, that still sounds too much. How do you also claim that it's likely to fall below $10,000?

I calculate the Bitcoin "right" price level via acceptance because I see it as the most important determinant of Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) price.

How I determine the acceptance rate? It is much harder to answer. Yes using Bitcoin for regular payments is one part of this but there are many other functions of money as well. USD acceptance rate is near 100% now. If Bitcoin is accepted just as USD, then its price is justified to be near one million USD. Not ten millions, not 100 000. Do you imagine one Bitcoin to cost 10 000 000 usd (in nowadays usd purchasing power) even if Bitcoin is fully accepted ? I think, you do not - because there is hardly so many wealth in the world to able this.

Thats not true.  There is no chart, no model, and no expert that says "100% acceptance rate" equals a specific price.  Thats a random number you have pulled out of ass.

As for the second part:
"What percentage of global wealth is Bitcoin?
There is $1000 TRILLION of global wealth. Bitcoin is only 0.2% of global wealth, and there will only ever be 21M bitcoins."
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:8ef41d597094b:0-bitcoin-is-just-0-2-of-global-wealth-and-that-s-why-it-s-not-too-late-analyst/

[Marvell1]

But Bitcoin has never seen an economic crises as well. The following creases seems to be deeper than the 2008 one because the boom accumulation has been much greater than in the previous time (before 2008). The bigger boom - the bigger room (for crisis).

I agree with you on this, Bitcoin was created after the great crisis of 2008 and fortunately, since then until now. Our economy has never experienced a crisis on such a large scale, and we still don't know how bitcoin would react if it did. That is why I disagree with those who say bitcoin is a safe haven.

But as for bitcoin going below $10k before hitting $1 million, I think that is very unlikely and depends. If in the next few decades, bitcoin escapes the label of a speculative asset and is recognized by the world as digital gold, and they use it as an alternative. If there is a major crisis, its price will even increase along with gold instead of being dumped. But the opposite will happen, it will be dumped severely if bitcoin remains a speculative asset and a major crisis occurs.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I disagree with you that Bitcoin is overvalued <...>

What does "100% acceptance rate" even mean?  Its a meaningless term. 

It seems like your idea is just a lot of hot air.

Are you kidding? If you are serious, you are an idiot.

The downside of forums is that sometimes you have to waste time dismantling nonsense like what the OP says.

Then short it or you are just full of shit. Show us your open short positions. 

Here's the question. Who is the OP? What proven predictive ability does he have? None. For us to give him any credibility, he would have to provide evidence of his predictive ability with past successes, and if he is so sure of what he says, he would have to put his money where his mouth is.

Congratulations on your new member rank, btw.

[mindrust]

It happened like this before it hit $50k+ if i remember correctly. During covid19 it went as low as 3-4k usd and then when the recovery kicked in, it ballooned to 50-60k usd. So your expectation isn’t just wishful thinking but as you noticed probably, there was a catalyst for that in 2020. If there won’t be another doomsday event, btc will have to reach $1m by itself. It will be a slower walk that way though. As people pile up, btc will get slower and slower because some of those people will be unloading their coins as the price keeps going up. If it crashes to $10k first, a few whales will scoop up the cheap coins and hold them much longer than an average retail investor.

[michellee]

It could happen if a big crisis such as when the coronavirus attack comes. The situation will be in chaos and cause Bitcoin to plummet significantly. Only those who are ready with anything can survive and seeing the opportunity to buy back Bitcoin at a very low price. While the rest will panic and save themselves without doing anything.

The investors are waiting for that moment with their money. They know the situation can turn bad so they prepare their money while observing the market. Bitcoin has already dropped from $125k to $112k so it could drop even worse. We can not do anything except prepare ourselves for anything that may come.

[Iranus]

If an economic crisis emerges and the value of fiat currency plummet I believe people will convert their currency to Bitcoin to preserve its value.  With funds flowing into Bitcoin I think this will be the time when the golden years of Bitcoin will happen.  We can possibly see the price of Bitcoin increase to an unimaginable height.

When an economic crisis occurs, not only does the value of fiat plummet, but speculative assets also plummet as people tend to seek safer assets. Therefore, that is only true if people consider bitcoin a safe haven, but the opposite if they still consider it a speculative asset like what is happening. It will be dumped and lose value rapidly, instead of increasing in value as you think.

So far, gold is the only safe haven asset and bitcoin is classified as a speculative asset, but hopefully this will soon change as bitcoin matures.