Before Bitcoin hits 1 000 000 usd, it falls below 10 000 usd

[luckyspirit]

As we often say, anything is possible, and if we believe it is possible to reach 1 million, that is x10 from now. We should not deny that it could also fall to $10k, which would be a loss of about 90% of its value. Anything can happen and this has happened many times in previous bear seasons, why can't it happen again?

I wouldn't rule out any scenario because the nature of bitcoin is unpredictable. If history repeats itself, a brutal bear market is coming, a bitcoin price drop of more than 80-90% is normal, nothing too surprising.

It's certainly possible, but looking ahead, major pump-ups will likely become rarer than they once were, perhaps due to the presence of large institutions. Beyond this, I, and others also would like to see how BTC performs during major events, such as the upcoming World Cup. Whether it will survive or experience further corrections, as you mentioned, is unpredictable.

Events like the World Cup are completely irrelevant to the price of Bitcoin, they have no impact on it.

[dezoel]

It's certainly possible, but looking ahead, major pump-ups will likely become rarer than they once were, perhaps due to the presence of large institutions. Beyond this, I, and others also would like to see how BTC performs during major events, such as the upcoming World Cup. Whether it will survive or experience further corrections, as you mentioned, is unpredictable.

Events like the World Cup are completely irrelevant to the price of Bitcoin, they have no impact on it.

I would not say so. Yes it would not matter "too much" that part is true, but there is a small case to be made about how it would make a change. How? Well simply because world cup is one of the most wagered gambling tournaments in the entire world, that means billions and billions will be bet on these games. Crypto sports betting is growing, becoming one of the main ways people gamble, we are seeing crypto gambling platforms to endorse so much.

So, we could technically see people buying billions worth of bitcoins just to bet on this world cup. I am not saying this would impact the price drastically, one bad day and all of that is gone, so it is not a big deal but it's also not nothing neither, it means something and it has worth.

[irhact]

Bitcoin heading to 1 million dollars price, yes possible, but Bitcoin to fall back to ten thousand dollars price is somewhat unpredictable to achieve at this point in time, alot have to be done to bring Bitcoin back to that range of $10k the time for such possibilities have gone and it will take a lot of things to bring Bitcoin to it kneels near that price, Best thing to do is to buy the amount you can afford to for now.

I always wonder why some people still think that Bitcoin can fall that low when we already have institutional investors fully invested in the market. These people won't want Bitcoin to fall that low because it'll affect them more than it'll affect the retail investors that are buying smaller amounts of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin wants to fall that low, there's alot of usdt printing that's going to happen and that money will be used to stabilized the market. We have to stop worrying about the market falling and start worrying more what's going to happen when the market keeps pumping but yet we don't have enough Bitcoin to make us profits from this.

[luckyspirit]

I would not say so. Yes it would not matter "too much" that part is true, but there is a small case to be made about how it would make a change. How? Well simply because world cup is one of the most wagered gambling tournaments in the entire world, that means billions and billions will be bet on these games. Crypto sports betting is growing, becoming one of the main ways people gamble, we are seeing crypto gambling platforms to endorse so much.

So, we could technically see people buying billions worth of bitcoins just to bet on this world cup. I am not saying this would impact the price drastically, one bad day and all of that is gone, so it is not a big deal but it's also not nothing neither, it means something and it has worth.

Sounds good in theory, but there is no data that supports what you are saying. What I find more likely is different. People will bet. People who have crypto will bet using crypto. People who have fiat will bet using fiat. It won't generate any significant buying pressure, it never has.

I always wonder why some people still think that Bitcoin can fall that low when we already have institutional investors fully invested in the market. These people won't want Bitcoin to fall that low because it'll affect them more than it'll affect the retail investors that are buying smaller amounts of Bitcoin.

They don't, they are just spreading FUD. As I said it before in this thread, he who believes this to be true will short Bitcoin with his whole net worth. Words of weak men who don't put their money where their mouth is are worthless.

[Pandu Geddon]

I always wonder why some people still think that Bitcoin can fall that low when we already have institutional investors fully invested in the market. These people won't want Bitcoin to fall that low because it'll affect them more than it'll affect the retail investors that are buying smaller amounts of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin wants to fall that low, there's alot of usdt printing that's going to happen and that money will be used to stabilized the market. We have to stop worrying about the market falling and start worrying more what's going to happen when the market keeps pumping but yet we don't have enough Bitcoin to make us profits from this.

I prefer to let people who speculate about such a low price drop think that way. The possibility exists, but the percentage and scheme of a drop must involve an event that truly devastates the market and causes panic. For now, such a scheme may not be something we encounter. We certainly should choose to prepare for the Bitcoin we hold rather than just being spectators when the price becomes very high.

[$crypto$]

I always wonder why some people still think that Bitcoin can fall that low when we already have institutional investors fully invested in the market. These people won't want Bitcoin to fall that low because it'll affect them more than it'll affect the retail investors that are buying smaller amounts of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin wants to fall that low, there's alot of usdt printing that's going to happen and that money will be used to stabilized the market. We have to stop worrying about the market falling and start worrying more what's going to happen when the market keeps pumping but yet we don't have enough Bitcoin to make us profits from this.

I prefer to let people who speculate about such a low price drop think that way. The possibility exists, but the percentage and scheme of a drop must involve an event that truly devastates the market and causes panic. For now, such a scheme may not be something we encounter. We certainly should choose to prepare for the Bitcoin we hold rather than just being spectators when the price becomes very high.

Let them speculate whatever they want. This is just speculation, although in my opinion it doesn't make sense for bitcoin to fall back to $10K. However, anything can happen --- it's possible.

If it does drop to $10K, the market will be in turmoil. Some people consider Bitcoin a scam, and those who are skeptical of Bitcoin will continue to mock Bitcoin investors, so this would not be surprising.

If you don't believe this speculation, just ignore it I myself am more optimistic about a high price than a low one.

[DanWalker]

I always wonder why some people still think that Bitcoin can fall that low when we already have institutional investors fully invested in the market. These people won't want Bitcoin to fall that low because it'll affect them more than it'll affect the retail investors that are buying smaller amounts of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin wants to fall that low, there's alot of usdt printing that's going to happen and that money will be used to stabilized the market. We have to stop worrying about the market falling and start worrying more what's going to happen when the market keeps pumping but yet we don't have enough Bitcoin to make us profits from this.

Agreed that the scenario of bitcoin price falling below $10k is very unlikely, it is a big drop and I don't believe it will happen either. But in all fairness, anything can happen and large institutional investors investing in bitcoin is not a guarantee.

Instead of thinking that they will spend more money to buy bitcoin if the price drops and will not let the price drop to such a low level. Why don't you think they are the ones who will cause that big drop? Because they enter the market for profit, and the sharp price drop is also a great opportunity for them because they can buy at a better discount. That is entirely possible.

[m2017]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

How did you find out?

In my subjective opinion, the bitcoin's price at this point is even undervalued. Because if you take into account inflation and the purchasing power of the dollar, the current price of bitcoin at $110k. doesn't look so "fair".

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

The crisis during the coronavirus was "weak", since the impact on the stock and crypto markets was minimal. Due to the "crazy printer" and printed money that was given to the population to stimulate the economy, but most of this money was invested in the stock and crypto markets. Which contributed to the stimulation of the bitcoin.

The world has not seen a "serious" crisis since 2008 and it is unknown what "reaction" will follow from the bitcoin. In theory, I assume that the price will fall. Despite the fact that the bitcoin was created as an anti-crisis tool (has now turned into a speculative tool).

I don't think that on the way to $10 mln. there will be a fall to $10k. This looks like an extremely overvalued scenario in terms of negative consequences.

[Iranus]

It's certainly possible, but looking ahead, major pump-ups will likely become rarer than they once were, perhaps due to the presence of large institutions. Beyond this, I, and others also would like to see how BTC performs during major events, such as the upcoming World Cup. Whether it will survive or experience further corrections, as you mentioned, is unpredictable.

That could happen too. But if we want bitcoin to major pump-ups like it did before, bitcoin needs to be dumped hard. It won't be able to pump hard and deliver 3x or 5x returns when the market cap has already crossed $2 trillion. Many people seem too greedy and somewhat selfish when they just want bitcoin to increase to 1 million from now but are afraid of bitcoin falling 80-90%.

The World Cup is a sporting event, it has nothing to do with bitcoin and the financial markets. I don't think it will have any impact. Bitcoin is a financial market and will be affected by economic and geopolitical news.

[Pandorak]

I always wonder why some people still think that Bitcoin can fall that low when we already have institutional investors fully invested in the market. These people won't want Bitcoin to fall that low because it'll affect them more than it'll affect the retail investors that are buying smaller amounts of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin wants to fall that low, there's alot of usdt printing that's going to happen and that money will be used to stabilized the market. We have to stop worrying about the market falling and start worrying more what's going to happen when the market keeps pumping but yet we don't have enough Bitcoin to make us profits from this.

I prefer to let people who speculate about such a low price drop think that way. The possibility exists, but the percentage and scheme of a drop must involve an event that truly devastates the market and causes panic. For now, such a scheme may not be something we encounter. We certainly should choose to prepare for the Bitcoin we hold rather than just being spectators when the price becomes very high.

Bitcoin will definitely experience a sharp decline, but it is impossible for the price to plummet to the $10k level. I think that is just the expectation of people who missed out on buying Bitcoin at a low price, hoping that the price will return to that level to satisfy their regret. A bear market will definitely come, perhaps in a few months, which is normal in every cycle, like an annual event. Although if Bitcoin reaches $10k, i will be happy because i can buy at a cheaper price, so i can get more Bitcoin with less money. I think i will be able to buy some BTC when that price actually comes, LOL.

[retreat]

When Bitcoin was $10k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $30k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $50k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $100k, it was considered overvalued.

So at any point, Bitcoin skeptics will always say it's "overvalued".

But look, your claim that Bitcoin will drop 90% before it reaches $1M is simply delusional. Even though we've experienced more severe market conditions before, Bitcoin's price hasn't plummeted 90%. That's essentially an exaggerated assumption that doesn't take into account the current market reality.

While there's potential for a Bitcoin bear market, it won't be that severe. Let's just be more realistic and avoid spreading FUD.

[JaanusRaim]

When Bitcoin was $10k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $30k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $50k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $100k, it was considered overvalued.

So at any point, Bitcoin skeptics will always say it's "overvalued".

But look, your claim that Bitcoin will drop 90% before it reaches $1M is simply delusional. Even though we've experienced more severe market conditions before, Bitcoin's price hasn't plummeted 90%. That's essentially an exaggerated assumption that doesn't take into account the current market reality.

While there's potential for a Bitcoin bear market, it won't be that severe. Let's just be more realistic and avoid spreading FUD.

When Bitcoin hit $10k in 2017 it was overvalued.

When Bitcoin hit $100k in 2030 it probably will not be overvalued. All that matters is time (popularity takes time to grow).

[GeorgeJohn]

I calculate the Bitcoin "right" price level via acceptance because I see it as the most important determinant of Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) price.

How I determine the acceptance rate? It is much harder to answer. Yes using Bitcoin for regular payments is one part of this but there are many other functions of money as well. USD acceptance rate is near 100% now. If Bitcoin is accepted just as USD, then its price is justified to be near one million USD. Not ten millions, not 100 000. Do you imagine one Bitcoin to cost 10 000 000 usd (in nowadays usd purchasing power) even if Bitcoin is fully accepted ? I think, you do not - because there is hardly so many wealth in the world to able this.

Okay, I see your point, but how are you so confident that the Bitcoin's acceptance rate will increase by that much? It'll definitely see an rise in the upcoming years because it has become way too mainstream after it surpassed $100,000, but in no ideal world would it even be close in competing the U.S. dollar and most certainly won't replace fiat currencies. This wasn't Bitcoin's intended purpose either. And according to you, what would happen if the acceptance rate doesn't budge and stays the same?

I do not know how much Bitcoin acceptance rate will increase. Yes, it is possible that it stagnates or even fall - I think the BTC price will follow that sooner or later (or rather sooner).

Yes, Bitcoin is interesting thing, very interesting , but I have seen repeatedly that this quality does not cause huge popularity.
 

which quality are we emphasising on, the price of Bitcoin is something that rise when we don't expect it, for the aspects of popularity, we are no longer talking of bitcoin popularity any longer, because the popularity is already evoke, the traffic of bitcoin right now is higher than two years a go popularity

[fuguebtc]

But look, your claim that Bitcoin will drop 90% before it reaches $1M is simply delusional. Even though we've experienced more severe market conditions before, Bitcoin's price hasn't plummeted 90%. That's essentially an exaggerated assumption that doesn't take into account the current market reality.

While there's potential for a Bitcoin bear market, it won't be that severe. Let's just be more realistic and avoid spreading FUD.

Bitcoin has gone through three bear seasons, so far. Among them, the biggest bear season was the 2014-2015 when bitcoin fell 84%, and the 2022 bear season when bitcoin fell more than 77%.

While it's true that bitcoin has never dropped 90% in previous cycles, this isn't entirely delusional. That could also happen because to be fair, since Bitcoin was created until now. Bitcoin has never experienced a major economic downturn like 2008 and we still don't know how bitcoin will react in such market conditions. So we can't be too quick to say that bitcoin will never lose 90% of its value or that it's just an illusion.

Our economy is not doing very well right now and the risk of recession is still present. And if the economy falls into a severe recession in 2026-2027, I believe that the possibility of a 70-90% drop in bitcoin price is entirely possible.

[JeffBrad12]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

All these reasons are just opinion.

How can you say public acceptance rate is low if almost every country is allowing bitcoin investments. it's right in front of our eyes that bitcoin is being accepted anywhere, legal tender will follow. If the economic crises emerge due to debt and never ending money printing, don't you think scarce and capped asset like bitcoin will thrive?

[shinratensei_]

When Bitcoin was $10k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $30k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $50k, it was considered overvalued.
When Bitcoin was $100k, it was considered overvalued.

So at any point, Bitcoin skeptics will always say it's "overvalued".

But look, your claim that Bitcoin will drop 90% before it reaches $1M is simply delusional. Even though we've experienced more severe market conditions before, Bitcoin's price hasn't plummeted 90%. That's essentially an exaggerated assumption that doesn't take into account the current market reality.

While there's potential for a Bitcoin bear market, it won't be that severe. Let's just be more realistic and avoid spreading FUD.

Knowing there are institutional investors leveraging on their investment such as MSTR, 90% drop gonna be disastrous and no, it won't make bitcoin reach $1M in the future instead making it harder if all those institutional investors are liquidated.

OP genuinely be getting this idea without data and statistics, just random thought and call it a day. Overvalued from the perspective of a bitcoin hater is undervalued from the perspective of bitcoin maxi. In this case I think OP is just fudding hence the nonsense forecast .

[bitcoindusts]

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

As long as the government of the world does not impose restriction to Bitcoin and those who support Bitcoin does not turn 180 degree, I do not think Bitcoin will fall under $10k.  Looking at the lowest price of Bitcoin after each cycle, I don't see the price falling 90% of its ATH since 2013.  I think  the most drop is around 85% and it gets less each cycle since the market matured as time pass by.  So at the current market maturity, I don't think the Bitcoin price will plummet that low.

[MainIbem]

As long as the government of the world does not impose restriction to Bitcoin and those who support Bitcoin does not turn 180 degree, I do not think Bitcoin will fall under $10k.  Looking at the lowest price of Bitcoin after each cycle, I don't see the price falling 90% of its ATH since 2013.  I think  the most drop is around 85% and it gets less each cycle since the market matured as time pass by.  So at the current market maturity, I don't think the Bitcoin price will plummet that low.

We've witnessed many treats to the market over the years, from Corona to wars in different strong economic regions but then Bitcoin haven't dipped to that figure the OP is speculating or analyzing rather, even when it hasn't gotten to the point it is currently in the asset class it didn't fall to that level then I wonder what makes the OP thinks it would go that dip now that more people are embracing it as a good asset for investment, countries are thinking of owning it as a reserve and even rich business men are seriously accumulating it more.

[STT]

When Bitcoin was $10k, it was considered overvalued.

We wavered around 10k for donkeys years, it was perhaps the transition from four to five digits and maybe that is the parallel to right now.   I noticed that the 200 day average is positive, very well since Sept its above 100k so that idea we fall back might only be to that basic level which isn't so far.

People are little too worried, which ironically is a good thing.  No doubters would have me expecting more of a sell to occur somehow.   Almost all momentum looks to be positive, a lull isn't a negative its a delay and that's more about personal patience required then fretting over what if scenarios.
  If this was snakes n ladders, we aren't near the end game by my reckoning its far too calm and sedate.  BTC is a crescendo, you will hear it loud first

[JaanusRaim]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-warns-bitcoin-could-drop-201147164.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKLeMpKTjgSqX6LVeTjsBZpur6VFwYMSLJE-pN0IB9apmV8-kCH4s_bOZeku24It_bKzyKoYVbE6xl1n4dpXbqHAkjjSzmlHhPP8Uw329nsHDKZyqCbx-CMWvVdFfyqF6fOWRDWr_w2G_sPJPQM8EHzc66TRDPlZVBcmNwCgDRaH