Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours

[K128kevin2]

Hmm so the price it predicted for 11am on 4/13 was 410.1 and the actual price was 412.5. That's an error of 0.5%. Let's see what the error is at 12pm EST and average those two numbers, which, of course, will be indicative of the entire system's accuracy.

EDIT: It predicted 410.8, actual was 411.8. That's a 0.2% error.

So in conclusion, my study has definitively PROVEN that the average error of ALL predictions made by this system is 0.35%

(and for those of you who haven't realized this, I'm not serious - I'm proving a point)

OH and also the following hour it predicted 405.5 and the price was 405.6, so that's a 0.02% error, making the new average 0.23%

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[jamesc760]

A complete failure from yesterday's predictions, kevin. All day long yesterday, your neural network predicted a 24-hour downward trend to $400. All day long yesterday, price stayed at or above $450. I sold 0.5 btc at 3PM thinking it would go lower. Oopsie. Not a big deal and you have stated NOT to rely on the neural network for REAL trades, so it's all my bad. Let this be a lesson, don't make trades based solely on the prediction. It's quite often wrong.

[TwinWinNerD]

There was 2 days in the last 10 days that were even close to be nearly the same. Hmm 1.3% error...

[Bit_Happy]

Finally made it over $500.
Timing is everything. 

[K128kevin2]

A complete failure from yesterday's predictions, kevin. All day long yesterday, your neural network predicted a 24-hour downward trend to $400. All day long yesterday, price stayed at or above $450. I sold 0.5 btc at 3PM thinking it would go lower. Oopsie. Not a big deal and you have stated NOT to rely on the neural network for REAL trades, so it's all my bad. Let this be a lesson, don't make trades based solely on the prediction. It's quite often wrong.

Sorry :/ But yeah that was probably it's worst prediction it has had so far in the ~1 month that it has been up. Hopefully these events will be rare.

Finally made it over $500.
Timing is everything.  Wink

Yes it did! This prediction was a wild success and occurred exactly as I predicted xD

[Bit_Happy]

Pretty quiet right now.
I think the next move is $550 and towards $575.

[atp1916]

I say....as the near future arrives day by day the price will creep back up to somewhere between 775-825...and people will wake up that day and be like DANG!

 

[K128kevin2]

I say....as the near future arrives day by day the price will creep back up to somewhere between 775-825...and people will wake up that day and be like DANG!

 

I definitely hope you are right! I don't think it will slowly creep up though. By the time it hits 700-800, I think it will be during a large spike that will take us over 1k. Idk when this will happen but I think given bitcoin's history, it seems inevitable.

[porcupine87]

Ok, random #7:
Your said, we get to 375 to 385. Real price was 425$. Error: 10.5%
Counter prediction: "price now will be price in 24hours": Error: 1.2%

If you know statitics and assume a normal distribution, you know how unlikely your real prediction error is only 1.3%. It is rather like 5-7% and worse like the counter prediction. 7 random tests are a lot. 7 times an 500% error in a row.
Again: I don't say 7 random predictions are enough to to measure your accurancy. I just say disprove the average error of 1.3% for real predictions.

Ok, another one:
Current price: 414.3$
Your neural network predicts: 417$

The good thing is, that this time, the counter prediction(same price in 24h) will be not really better than your neural network prediction

You're obviously not reading anything that I'm writing at all. Here is an equally biased method of measuring error to yours: at 11am EST, it says the price will be $410.1. Let's see how far off that is. Then I'll measure the prediction for one hour after that and we'll see how far off it is. I'll average those two numbers and say that is the average error of the entire system.

Please, can we stay at UTC. I am not from the east cost. In Germany we have summer time, so 2 hours instead of 1 hour off. This is confusing enough.

So your system predicted 417$ for 1pm 14.April. Let's look a the actual price: Oh, over $450. So the error was 8%.
In this times, when the price is not moving, you error might be really low. But same with the prediction "price in 24h is the same like current price".

Look at the 24h predictions of the last 4 days (so 72 predictions). The average error was 1.05%.

New prediction:
23.4.2014 6pm. Current price 485$. Your prediction for 24.4.2014 is 494$.

And once again, I don't see how you can take 6 measurements, compare them to my 40,000 or so (recalculated every hour, so really I've taken somewhere around 30 million measurements), and say that yours are more accurate than mine. The ONLY way you can do any reasonable test of accuracy would be if you did what I describe in the previous post. Until you do, please don't post here with your "random" measurements claiming that my neural network (which will almost definitely predict more accurately than any human) has an average error of 5+%. Your methods of calculations are terrible and your data is misleading and just straight up false. I don't believe that you know anything about statistics.

No it isn't. What is your standard deviation or the measurement error? I don't have that data. I am not on your page every hour. But fair enough. With stable prices your predictions seems to result in low errors. I know I cannot proof that I took 7 random samples. The last 8% error was in fact random like you could see. But I know it was random. And 6 measurements 500% over the claimed average error is huge and make it highly unlikely that your average error is that low.

Let's compare that. For sure there is no normal distribution because your error can only be 1.2% off in one direction and limitless in the other direction. So we can compare this more like the income distribution of US households. The median income level is about 50 000$. So every second random picked household should get us an income below 50k. Over 250 000$ accounts only for 2.3%. So let's pick 6 different random households and let's see how much they earn.
-> All households over 250 000$, 5times more than the median. How high is the possibility? 0.023^6. So to be 500% off you need in average 7 billions picks to get that result. (I know median and average are different, but to be honset, this doesn't improve the odds). So please don't tell me that 6 random picks are meaningless. And the 7th was 800% off again.

But fair enough, I have no idea over how many predictions you calculate your average error. So I think over many thousands?

Ah you still don't get the think with learning and test data. You claim you made 40,000 predictions. You would need 4.5 years for that. So you didn't! I tested the real prediction into the future. You didn't!

[maok]

Great effort from the OP and proves what you can do when you have lots of spare time, however if he'll turn pro and start trading on his predictions he'll most likely be broke before a difficulty round is completed. Even though randomness might not exists, it is near impossible to predict something you don't know and/or understand, I'm not talking about the OP skills in creating projects in his neural network but more about the unknowns of real life which will always be unpredictable and will cause price shifts which your neural network hasn't previously encountered eg. mtgox.

Also I find the 1.3% margin hilarious as even in the elections same day forecast by some serious statisticians the margin of error is around 2% and thats pretty simple stuff, while bitcoin price fluctuations are very complex, you might get it right few times but you'll get it wrong most of the times. Even if you'll collect 1 billion of trillion of data you still won't be able to accurately predict an outcome there are too many unknowns, maybe only when total bitcoin in circulation will go past 90% you'll be able to be more efficient because the market will be formed mainly by traders, which actions are somewhat predictable but at the moment you have lots of speculators and miners running the markets not only traders.

[toxic1978]

Is it me or are many out there taking this way to seriously, its a 'Predictive' informative based site. Its a experimental service which you can choose to use or not to use at your own will. The poor developer never claimed to know the future or guarantee exact predictions.

The bitcoin market is always going to be prone to unknown factors due to the media and unknown personal opinion or motive, however this will overtime become less of a problem as the market stabilizes .

It would not be impossible though to incorporate media news into the prediction Algorithm, however it may require some manual intervention for defining media results with a negative to positive scoring system. Future events and important dates can also reflect the value, but again this could be incorporated but would require human intervention to collate such events and rate them in 'affect factor'

Anyone why don't people give more advice and support to the developer rather than mock and cuss at every negative result the prediction may display.

[K128kevin2]

Is it me or are many out there taking this way to seriously, its a 'Predictive' informative based site. Its a experimental service which you can choose to use or not to use at your own will. The poor developer never claimed to know the future or guarantee exact predictions.

The bitcoin market is always going to be prone to unknown factors due to the media and unknown personal opinion or motive, however this will overtime become less of a problem as the market stabilizes .

It would not be impossible though to incorporate media news into the prediction Algorithm, however it may require some manual intervention for defining media results with a negative to positive scoring system. Future events and important dates can also reflect the value, but again this could be incorporated but would require human intervention to collate such events and rate them in 'affect factor'

Anyone why don't people give more advice and support to the developer rather than mock and cuss at every negative result the prediction may display.

Thank you! Like you said, I never claimed that it is going to guarantee accurate results or even results good enough to make a profit. It's an experiment and I'm still figuring these things out and working on improving accuracy. There are multiple warnings on the site about this as well.

And for those who are doubting about the 1.3% average error, do you really think I'm just making up numbers every hour for the average accuracy and displaying them above the charts? Those ARE the average errors whether you believe it or not. I'm not lying here.

[Cassius]

Have you considered adding in (or adding separately into another graph) other indicators - whether those are MACD or something else like Google trends figures, Twitter mentions, etc?
As I recall I think there's some kind of long-term correlation between Google trends and price.

[K128kevin2]

Have you considered adding in (or adding separately into another graph) other indicators - whether those are MACD or something else like Google trends figures, Twitter mentions, etc?
As I recall I think there's some kind of long-term correlation between Google trends and price.

I am currently planning on improving the current graphs with a more complicated system of inputs, part of which will include volume.

As far as the types of indicators that you have mentioned, I would like to eventually compile data from twitter and/or other news sources and use this data as an indicator. I believe that if done properly, this could work extremely well. However it is obviously difficult. I would also need to collect an enormous amount of data before starting. I plan on working on this in the future though for sure!

[counter]

Well I always appreciate some analysis.  If it were easy everyone would be doing it. 

[K128kevin2]

I hope the current 20 day prediction is way off!

Haha yeah I hope so too - that neural network has a pretty high error rate so there's a solid chance it's wrong. Hopefully we'll see a rise soon, but it will be interesting if it actually is right. Either way, I'm pretty confident that bitcoin will rise over $1,000 again at some point, even if it means falling down to low $300s or lower first.

[bitsmichel]

I hope the current 20 day prediction is way off!

If I understand correctly it uses historical data, but with bitcoin, there is not so much historical data.

[K128kevin2]

If I understand correctly it uses historical data, but with bitcoin, there is not so much historical data.

That's true, bitcoin is still young. There's about 3 years worth of transaction data though, something around 8 million transactions.

[cech4204a]

you are not accurate at all, like someone said, looking at todays price is not the same as looking at future, you can not predict price, when will you realise that ? this is not sports and you know your odds (proximately) and put a bet on whatever you think might win. This is financial market, where price is only about supply and demand. We can estimate supply, but you will never know the demand.

[fancyboy]

you are not accurate at all, like someone said, looking at todays price is not the same as looking at future, you can not predict price, when will you realise that ? this is not sports and you know your odds (proximately) and put a bet on whatever you think might win. This is financial market, where price is only about supply and demand. We can estimate supply, but you will never know the demand.

Agree! In case with BTC, even if you have made some analyses to predict future price is like to perform a rain dance.