Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[nelson4lov]

Overconfidence is a thing and as someone that has been a victim of it for a couple of times, I can confirm that there is no guaranteed bet. The only thing that increases our chances of winning is when our analysis aligns with our luck. There was a time I was gambling almost everyday on NBA player props market. There was a tool I was using to see stats of players before the game. Sometimes you go there and see that a player has only made 11 rebounds once in their last 20 games. But if you decide to bet that he won't reach 11 rebounds, it's that day he would beat their record and reach 11 rebounds lol.

[Hazink]

Even with odds of 1.01, it's still not a "100% sure" pick. Or, if we choose a player with low odds based on their statistics because they consistently perform convincingly, it still won't be a "100% sure" pick, because nothing is certain in sports betting.
Statistics are just statistics to help us choose what is likely to happen in a match, not what will definitely happen.

I don't know exactly what people see, which makes them feel convinced enough that they feel like they are sure of winning. Even the odds should not be what convinces them, or it's just them trying to feel that they can actually win the game based on the data they have access to, which it's not always like that.

[Makus]

I've gad that experience before this is what made me learn not to depend on betting in anything, there are bets that we are sure of but in my experience don't allow this make you stake beyond your limit or way too high. There is no guarantee of winning any bet that you place amd ot doesn't matter if you do proper analysis, this doesn't really matter sometimes. Gambling is mostly a game of luck and don't think that you can always make profits because you analyze and do everything right, always remember that winning is not always possible.

[Fredomago]

That's the problem: if you bet on something you think is a sure thing and you lose, it can really get you down. But in your case, the problem was betting so heavily.

In my head and beliefs she was 200% sure (makes me laugh when I think about it now) I bet what I had in my gambling account (fortunately as little as ever) on that occasion I lost miserably (I remember being very hurt by it).
It was hard, but with mistakes you learn the best lessons, I was okay with not wasting so much money. 

I think everyone has been through this. And I want to say that this is the best lesson when I learned it the hard way. I also bet on the favorite to win against a very weak team, and they ended up drawing. I remember that my surprise simply knew no bounds.And then I realized that it is simply impossible to be 100% sure, since gambling is definitely not about guarantees.

Indeed, there's no assurance even how deep your knowledge and how good is your analysis, when luck plays against you those guarantee that you think will beneficial to you, those might upset you, especially when you put huge amount of money thinking that since the odds is small and the wining percentage is too high, plus all those factors that leads you to pick your bets, all are those can't guarantee as gambling always risk behind.

[TheUltraElite]

I don't know exactly what people see, which makes them feel convinced enough that they feel like they are sure of winning. Even the odds should not be what convinces them, or it's just them trying to feel that they can actually win the game based on the data they have access to, which it's not always like that.

Games are happening and the results of the games are from the player's performance and not always based on prior data. Prior data will indicate something but this might not always be correct. If that was the case people would have developed bots to predict long back and won all the money from bookmakers. A myriad of reasons are there to make you bet go bust. Bad weather, substitutions, injuries and random events happening once a while, all these can be factored as a luck factor which is not predictable.

Hence it is common to lose a 100% sure pick, in other words, that term itself is wrong.

[eisen33]

Overconfidence is a thing and as someone that has been a victim of it for a couple of times, I can confirm that there is no guaranteed bet. The only thing that increases our chances of winning is when our analysis aligns with our luck. There was a time I was gambling almost everyday on NBA player props market. There was a tool I was using to see stats of players before the game. Sometimes you go there and see that a player has only made 11 rebounds once in their last 20 games. But if you decide to bet that he won't reach 11 rebounds, it's that day he would beat their record and reach 11 rebounds lol.

Because you can’t rely only on statistics, players also can’t play with the same indicators all the time, sometimes they play better, sometimes worse. And so luck also matters a lot, and not only when you bet on a player, it’s the same in other sports and even when you bet on a team. Statistics are a changeable thing, they can be repeated several times in a row, and then when you set everything will be different, so luck is also important.

[Kelward]

Overconfidence is a thing and as someone that has been a victim of it for a couple of times, I can confirm that there is no guaranteed bet. The only thing that increases our chances of winning is when our analysis aligns with our luck. There was a time I was gambling almost everyday on NBA player props market. There was a tool I was using to see stats of players before the game. Sometimes you go there and see that a player has only made 11 rebounds once in their last 20 games. But if you decide to bet that he won't reach 11 rebounds, it's that day he would beat their record and reach 11 rebounds lol.

Overconfidence is a terrible thing for gamblers, it's one of the easiest ways to lose all your gambling bankroll because you will want to bet with huge amounts believing that you will win big but the reality is that most times it doesn't happen. If the overconfidence continues after the huge lose chasing the loses with equally huge amounts will follow until you're completely deplated, if the overconfidence still persists then it has become an addiction. Despite how sure you believe your analysis are you should also hope that luck will see it through because you cannot underestimate the place of luck in gambling. Knowing that no gambling skills is enough to guarantee you wins you should learn to gamble responsibly with amount that you can afford to loose.

[Crypto Library]

This has happened to me not once but many times, where I was 100% sure and bet on a team but later that team lost. If I talk about the ICC Cricket World Cup that was held a few days ago, we saw the Australian team losing against the Sri Lankan team and the Zimbabwean team.
You are honest, I never thought that the Australian team would lose against at least these two teams. But it actually happened. However, I always keep in mind that even if I am 100% confident in a bet, I should still be able to afford to lose the amount I stake.

[lienfaye]

Overconfidence is a thing and as someone that has been a victim of it for a couple of times, I can confirm that there is no guaranteed bet. The only thing that increases our chances of winning is when our analysis aligns with our luck.

Indeed. Nothing is guaranteed in gambling, once you place your bet (regardless of how confident you are) you put your money in risk already, either to win or lose. Therefore, don't set a high hopes because luck is a major factor to win.

I experienced this kind of situation already many times in the past. It's really disappointing but that's how gambling works. Knowledge, strategy, analysis are not just what you need in order to win. Luck is crucial. Every gamblers must be aware of this before playing to avoid having regrets.

[Rockstarguy]

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

In gambling, you don't need to be too sure about the outcome of the game, because the outcome in gambling is never certain. The probability of losing in gambling is even higher than winning. In gambling, anything can happen; it is just important to have this mindset and never to expect too much.

When one is expecting a particular outcome in gambling, they may end up getting disappointed because gambling can't be predicted. Overconfidence in gambling leads to much regret. Gambling is a game of fun that you don't need to take too seriously.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

This has happened to me not once but many times, where I was 100% sure and bet on a team but later that team lost. If I talk about the ICC Cricket World Cup that was held a few days ago, we saw the Australian team losing against the Sri Lankan team and the Zimbabwean team.
You are honest, I never thought that the Australian team would lose against at least these two teams. But it actually happened. However, I always keep in mind that even if I am 100% confident in a bet, I should still be able to afford to lose the amount I stake.

Yeah, that exactly should be the end goal for all gamblers because definitely from time to time, we all always come across games that we will place bet on and be 100% confident that we will win, and it is actually not a bad thing to have this type of feelings for a game, but when it comes bad is when we fail to factor other possibilities into the situation as well, know well that outcomes in games are easily predictable, anything can happen even in a game were it's remaining just few minutes for us to win.

So it is of utmost importance that we ensure we are betting wit an amount we can easily afford to lose no matter how confident we are in the outcome of the game.
This is how over confidence made me put all my life savings into a game some few years back, I even borrowed money to join to the one I had to bet on this game because I felt it was an opportunity to hit a big amount of money if I bet amount was large enough, as if tricked by the devil himself, the team I was super confident will win the match ended up losing, I woke in the hospital the next day, I was told I fainted 😁

[Wakate]

I've gad that experience before this is what made me learn not to depend on betting in anything, there are bets that we are sure of but in my experience don't allow this make you stake beyond your limit or way too high. There is no guarantee of winning any bet that you place amd ot doesn't matter if you do proper analysis, this doesn't really matter sometimes. Gambling is mostly a game of luck and don't think that you can always make profits because you analyze and do everything right, always remember that winning is not always possible.

I have also had so many crazy experiences in the past that had made me not to ganble anyhow like the way I used to gamble before. I don't believe in sure bet or anything to tell me that a game is going to be 100% winning because I know that anything can happen when you gamble without the full understanding that gambling is not always profitable.

[AmoreJaz]

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

In gambling, you don't need to be too sure about the outcome of the game, because the outcome in gambling is never certain. The probability of losing in gambling is even higher than winning. In gambling, anything can happen; it is just important to have this mindset and never to expect too much.

When one is expecting a particular outcome in gambling, they may end up getting disappointed because gambling can't be predicted. Overconfidence in gambling leads to much regret. Gambling is a game of fun that you don't need to take too seriously.

And that you won't say, you had it "100%" sure because even if it is the heavy favorite, still there are some angles that will make it a losing bet. So we can only say 100% after the game, when we already have the money on our hand. So don't celebrate early when you don't have it yet. As the outcome of the game can really turn the tables totally opposite of what you are expecting in a very short period of time, don't be too confident that you will get it.
So always be conservative with the amount you bet as well as your expectations because you can't go all in if the money you will use is for something else more important. You may have very good feelings about your bet, but don't push yourself too much where you have no room of getting out. At least, have some allowance so you won't put yourself in a terrible financial situation.

[Marvelockg]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

You can feel too sure of your prediction and your confidence in the game can still mean that you will win the game and at the same time, slowing your confidence about your prediction cloud your judgement such that you're so long a sleep and you're still feeling that your sleep is going to be accurate only means that you're on the part of incredible loss.

Even though after you've done your analysis and found them to be right to a certain extent you can express your confidence on your game, you still need to create a Ballance such that your pick aren't too long leading to a. Eventual failure that would have been avoided if the number of selections have been reduced.

[Bigjoe33]

Scores and current standing are just a reflection of their skills and statistics its easy to make a prediction on the game if ever there is a good numbers we saw so there is a potential came up that they have a higher chance to win the game but of course its a sports game still there is a chance that they might lose its on their decision making upon the game could be a wrong call and just single mistake can make a table turn. I do experienced that kind of problem every time I bet in EPL last season there is a chance they win but ended up a draw or a penalty goal.

Just the topic, it's funny but real. 100% sure bet? I think it's just us decieving ourselves that there anything called sure bets or 100% sure. Nothing like that because everything still lands on luck. This assurance has led to many staking very high but loose everything at the end. You could bet on just 5 games(sports bet) with a very high stake, with a big amount, covered with your hopes of sure bet, and even at the first half, you know that the bet is gone already,Lol. It's always like that, all gamblers has experienced it, me too. Losses everywhere

[Cryptmuster]

You can feel too sure of your prediction and your confidence in the game can still mean that you will win the game and at the same time, slowing your confidence about your prediction cloud your judgement such that you're so long a sleep and you're still feeling that your sleep is going to be accurate only means that you're on the part of incredible loss.

Even though after you've done your analysis and found them to be right to a certain extent you can express your confidence on your game, you still need to create a Ballance such that your pick aren't too long leading to a. Eventual failure that would have been avoided if the number of selections have been reduced.

I think each of us has repeatedly tested from own experience, how predictions work out when we are 100% sure about them, or when we have doubts. Many times it happened to me that I was so confident in a bet, that I wanted to bet more. And at the beginning I actually did bet more and lost, and there were many bets where I had doubts, but they turned out to be winning ones. In the end I came to the conclusion that the best choice is always to play with a fixed bet. It doesn’t matter how confident you are in a bet or how much you doubt it. If the doubt is strong, just skip the bet. And if the confidence is extremely high and it seems to you, that you are 100% sure about the bet, you should still place only a fixed bet.

[icebar]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

It is better to be confident before choosing a bet so that the gambler can comparatively select the right bet for gamble. However, we must accept that there is no sure chance of winning in gambling. When we place a bet, it seems that the bet we have analyzed has a high chance of winning. But when we see the result, it changes. When you place a bet on a match, it will sometimes be in your favor and sometimes in the opposite direction. In this way, many predictions are ultimately proven wrong. After making a good judgment analysis, one should never be sure until the result is obtained.

[LastKiss]

Scores and current standing are just a reflection of their skills and statistics its easy to make a prediction on the game if ever there is a good numbers we saw so there is a potential came up that they have a higher chance to win the game but of course its a sports game still there is a chance that they might lose its on their decision making upon the game could be a wrong call and just single mistake can make a table turn. I do experienced that kind of problem every time I bet in EPL last season there is a chance they win but ended up a draw or a penalty goal.

Just the topic, it's funny but real. 100% sure bet? I think it's just us decieving ourselves that there anything called sure bets or 100% sure. Nothing like that because everything still lands on luck. This assurance has led to many staking very high but loose everything at the end. You could bet on just 5 games(sports bet) with a very high stake, with a big amount, covered with your hopes of sure bet, and even at the first half, you know that the bet is gone already,Lol. It's always like that, all gamblers has experienced it, me too. Losses everywhere

The idea of a 100% sure pick comes from our own mind because we are overconfident. In reality, there is no such thing as a 100% sure bet because overconfidence only makes us greedy and deceives us into making poor decisions. Although gambling mostly depends on luck, with knowledge we can still make better decisions. We should avoid being greedy or chasing more bets, It's better to choose a bet where we can accept the loss rather than picking something we think is almost 100% certain with greed.

[Crypto Library]

Yeah, that exactly should be the end goal for all gamblers because definitely from time to time, we all always come across games that we will place bet on and be 100% confident that we will win, and it is actually not a bad thing to have this type of feelings for a game, but when it comes bad is when we fail to factor other possibilities into the situation as well, know well that outcomes in games are easily predictable, anything can happen even in a game were it's remaining just few minutes for us to win.

So it is of utmost importance that we ensure we are betting wit an amount we can easily afford to lose no matter how confident we are in the outcome of the game.
This is how over confidence made me put all my life savings into a game some few years back, I even borrowed money to join to the one I had to bet on this game because I felt it was an opportunity to hit a big amount of money if I bet amount was large enough, as if tricked by the devil himself, the team I was super confident will win the match ended up losing, I woke in the hospital the next day, I was told I fainted 😁

Actually, I follow this thing that even if I am 100% confident in favor of a team in terms of betting, I still have to assume that the result will be decided by our luck in the end. And when we follow this thing, it will be seen that automatically a thing will work within us that we will be somewhat hesitant about the staking amount and in most cases it works positively, like in my case this thing has played a big role in always being within the power of losing.

Otherwise, we will be overconfident and stake an amount that we cannot afford to lose, which will ultimately lead us to a financial crisis.

[junder]

Because you can’t rely only on statistics, players also can’t play with the same indicators all the time, sometimes they play better, sometimes worse. And so luck also matters a lot, and not only when you bet on a player, it’s the same in other sports and even when you bet on a team. Statistics are a changeable thing, they can be repeated several times in a row, and then when you set everything will be different, so luck is also important.

Gambling, by its very nature, involves luck, and it can be said that it is driven by uncertainty. So I agree with you that anything can happen, just as you mentioned. We’ve probably all experienced how confident we were about a bet we were about to place, but that doesn’t eliminate the uncertainty the final outcome still hinges on chance, and it’s luck alone that determines the result. This applies to all types of gambling.