[POLL] How high will silver go?

[Wind_FURY]

OK, then how long until they can't manipulate the market anymore? Probably three months? Years? It would he laughable if it's years because that would mean the situation is actually stable enough.

If you are asking me to predict the future, I seem to have misplaced my magic ball to look into it. But last I looked into it I saw it showing 6 months (298 million barrels left, dumping between 4-10 million barrels per week, slowing down the lower the total gets and not willing to go lower than certain levels that some say is 250 million some say 100 million-ish)

I'm not asking for a prediction, but a projection based on the available information that you know. OK, it's six months.

You have to remember that oil market is a very complex global market with many factors to consider and we are not just talking about simple market manipulation, we are talking about a war.
But at the end of the day it's all about supply and demand.
Supply

• I've already covered the blockade of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab straits. Since last time for reasons I explained here the Armed Forces of Yemen moved to destroying Saudi infrastructure that included oil storage facilities, tankers, pipelines, refineries, etc. That's a significant drop in total.
  
• US regime is dumping its strategic reserves rapidly. That is a bump in supply.
• Russia has significantly increased its exports.
• The stolen Venezuelan oil was added to the global supply chain (it is not a significant rise but it is something)

Let me take a sidetrack a little here since the Russian case is very interesting considering how Trump regime helped Russian economy significantly in 2026. Before the US regime's aggression against Iran, the Persian Gulf was open and oil flew freely. During this time, Russia was barely selling 2-3 million bpd and price was already low and on top of that Russians had to offer some discount, sometimes selling as low as $40 a barrel. Some sources were saying Russia was finally on the verge of a financial crisis, although I take that with a grain of salt but there some evidence of liquidity problems.

But after the Persian Gulf oil flow dropped to a trickle, the price went up and Russians started exporting more crude oil. Going up to 4-5 million bpd and selling it at up to $150-$200 a barrel.

Because Russia is a sanctioned country, I heard that there were Asian countries that went to Trump to "ask permission" to buy Crude Oil from Russia after the instability in the Strait Of Hormuz started to happen.

That's probably why fuel/energy shortages have not happened yet.

Then the US attacks on Russian refineries increased Russian crude exports significantly all the way to 7+ bpd. That was because the oil they were refining, could not go to refineries that were damaged and since they needed to import products like petrol (gas) they needed the extra money so they started exporting the crude oil that was supposed to go to refineries.

This is also part of the US regime's market manipulation. Now you have a better understanding on why the US military was selecting each target to destroy inside Russian soil.

U.S. attacked Russian Oil refineries? Post the link of that information. Or is that part of the radicalized propaganda again?

Demand

• Generally speaking the world has been facing economic hardship and high inflation. That slows down the economic growth and started heading toward recession. All things that got worse with higher prices of everything (oil, gas, sulfur, nitrides, fertilizers, food, ...). That decreases the demand for oil.
• Oil went up => petroium products went up as well => prices of everything else that relied on them (eg. air-travel) went up => demand for those services/products dumped hard due to inflation => demand for oil dropped. For example surveys in US said about 40-50% of Americans said they'll skip summer holiday. Some airlines even filed for bankruptcy.
• China significantly decreased its imports. This is part of that indirect manipulation by the US regime. You see, China sees the higher price on one hand, and on the other hand sees the regime is saying daily that US has capitulated and Iran will soon open the Strait of Hormuz and stuff like that. So the decision in China so far has been to slow down imports (significantly) and wait until prices come down. That is a considerable decrease in demand. But that can't last forever, China needs to start increasing its purchase soon.

Do you see the complexity? There is a lot more that I can't recall right now and a lot more that I don't know.

Recession where? Which countries have gotten into two quarters of negative GDP?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[OgNasty]

It seems like silver has settled down in the $60s after its meteoric run over $100. I wish it was easier to sell physical, as I would have liked to have sold a lot more of my silver at that price. Something to think about… An exit strategy with physical silver can be a lot harder than you would think.

[pooya87]

U.S. attacked Russian Oil refineries? Post the link of that information. Or is that part of the radicalized propaganda again?

The CIA designates targets, US satellites pinpoint it, US military officer receive the encrypted data from the satelite, decrypts it with keys that only US military has and won't give it to anyone else, feeds that data into the missile launcher unit on the ground, US made missiles/launchers receive that data, a Ukrainian (sometimes an American) presses the launch button, the US satelite guides that missile to its target doing course correction, finally the US satelite performs damage analysis to measure success and decide to re-launch in case it failed (eg. projectile intercepted).

That's the process. If you were hoping for an official announcement by Pentagon, it will not come out until 50 years from now when it is declassified.
If you were hoping for an official announcement by Russian Ministry of Defense, that may never come out because their own population would be outraged to know they are being hit by US and not hitting US back.

Recession where? Which countries have gotten into two quarters of negative GDP?

Recession is not determined by GPD, they just use GDP because it is easier and because the government controls those numbers and can report whatever they want.

Recession means "economic decline" and basically an economy is in recession when people are spending less money because they can't spend more. I gave you some examples already with holidays and air-travel, you can search and you'll find a lot more.
And that's exactly what's been happening in the world in the past couple of years. The world is slowly sinking into recession. We are seeing the effects of it in bitcoin market as well: people who are spending less  because they don't have money, also have no money to invest therefore the rallies run out of steam quickly and price drops easier instead of shooting up despite the growing adoption and the 4-year cycle halving effects.

[Wind_FURY]

U.S. attacked Russian Oil refineries? Post the link of that information. Or is that part of the radicalized propaganda again?

The CIA designates targets, US satellites pinpoint it, US military officer receive the encrypted data from the satelite, decrypts it with keys that only US military has and won't give it to anyone else, feeds that data into the missile launcher unit on the ground, US made missiles/launchers receive that data, a Ukrainian (sometimes an American) presses the launch button, the US satelite guides that missile to its target doing course correction, finally the US satelite performs damage analysis to measure success and decide to re-launch in case it failed (eg. projectile intercepted).

That's the process. If you were hoping for an official announcement by Pentagon, it will not come out until 50 years from now when it is declassified.

If you were hoping for an official announcement by Russian Ministry of Defense, that may never come out because their own population would be outraged to know they are being hit by US and not hitting US back.

Does that mean that the U.S. has already won against the Russians, and that there will be a surrender that will also not be announced because their own population will be outraged?

Or, without a link to the source, your post is bullshit?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Recession where? Which countries have gotten into two quarters of negative GDP?

Recession is not determined by GPD, they just use GDP because it is easier and because the government controls those numbers and can report whatever they want.

Recession means "economic decline" and basically an economy is in recession when people are spending less money because they can't spend more. I gave you some examples already with holidays and air-travel, you can search and you'll find a lot more.
 
And that's exactly what's been happening in the world in the past couple of years. The world is slowly sinking into recession. We are seeing the effects of it in bitcoin market as well: people who are spending less  because they don't have money, also have no money to invest therefore the rallies run out of steam quickly and price drops easier instead of shooting up despite the growing adoption and the 4-year cycle halving effects.

If you're right, then that's actually good because the Federal Reserve could have the opportunity to pivot to Q.E. and turn on the Money-Printer. BRRRRRRRRRR.

[pooya87]

Does that mean that the U.S. has already won against the Russians, and that there will be a surrender that will also not be announced because their own population will be outraged?

Has the Axis reached any of its main objectives (eg. weakening Russia, breaking it apart into smaller sectors, regime change, etc.)? No! Then no, the Axis has not won just because they've dealt some damage.
And to be clear, the paragraph you boldened is me questioning Russia's victory even if they managed to reach some of their objectives like annexing parts of Ukraine, destroying NATO bases in Ukraine, etc.

Or, without a link to the source, your post is bullshit?

So let me get this straight. I write a detailed analysis about oil, gold and precious metals, military situation, and other stuff with facts and logic and all that.
You have nothing to counter ANY of it so you ask for a link so that someone else tells you the same thing? Well for your information I am not a parrot to be repeating other people's stuff to have a "link to a source" to give you to. I have my own analysis.
You can call it bullshit but you have to provide a counter analysis with facts to do so, otherwise calling it bullshit just because I'm not a parrot only makes you look bad.

If you're right, then that's actually good because the Federal Reserve could have the opportunity to pivot to Q.E. and turn on the Money-Printer. BRRRRRRRRRR.

US national debt just reached $40 trillion and in fact part of the reason why bitcoin is soaring so rapidly today and having already broken the strong resistance at $70k like a piece of cake is exactly the US dollar failing.
In other words we bitcoins love it whenever they start the money printers

BTW Both gold and silver are starting to become strongly bullish as well...

[Wind_FURY]

Does that mean that the U.S. has already won against the Russians, and that there will be a surrender that will also not be announced because their own population will be outraged?

Has the Axis reached any of its main objectives (eg. weakening Russia, breaking it apart into smaller sectors, regime change, etc.)? No! Then no, the Axis has not won just because they've dealt some damage.
And to be clear, the paragraph you boldened is me questioning Russia's victory even if they managed to reach some of their objectives like annexing parts of Ukraine, destroying NATO bases in Ukraine, etc.

Or, without a link to the source, your post is bullshit?

So let me get this straight. I write a detailed analysis about oil, gold and precious metals, military situation, and other stuff with facts and logic and all that.

You have nothing to counter ANY of it so you ask for a link so that someone else tells you the same thing? Well for your information I am not a parrot to be repeating other people's stuff to have a "link to a source" to give you to. I have my own analysis.

You can call it bullshit but you have to provide a counter analysis with facts to do so, otherwise calling it bullshit just because I'm not a parrot only makes you look bad.

If you're right, then that's actually good because the Federal Reserve could have the opportunity to pivot to Q.E. and turn on the Money-Printer. BRRRRRRRRRR.

US national debt just reached $40 trillion and in fact part of the reason why bitcoin is soaring so rapidly today and having already broken the strong resistance at $70k like a piece of cake is exactly the US dollar failing.
In other words we bitcoins love it whenever they start the money printers

BTW Both gold and silver are starting to become strongly bullish as well...

Pardon me for saying this, I'm not trying to offend you, but merely want to say that we should agree to disagree. Because from my own viewpoint, you ser, sound like someone who is under a spell of radicalized propaganda.

You probably believe that, my own viewpoint, it's the same situation.

Let's go back to the topic and see how will Silver go. Gold is also starting to surge.

 

[OgNasty]

Let's go back to the topic and see how will Silver go. Gold is also starting to surge.

 

The precious metals did seem to find their bottom and are on the way back up.  Right as I lowered my coin prices it seemed the market decided to change directions and now I'm back to raising prices on retailers...

The free market seems to be doing a good job and keeping interest rates elevated to keep inflation at bay, but the fed is definitely trying to do the opposite.  They say not to fight the fed for a reason, so while all signs should be pointing to a decline in commodities, I think we all know the money printer will always save the day in the end...

[pooya87]

This news seems huge to me:
Netherlands pulled 86 tons of gold out of US and Canada stating geopolitical risks as the reason

It is huge because they are pulling out of US and it is huge because of the size of it (although other countries have been doing it too but at bigger sums like France pulling out 129 tons, India 280 tons) but the biggest thing here is that now they are stating their reason which is what we all knew. They've basically lost faith in the US and are pulling out (of the sinking ship perhaps?).

With dedollarisation going strong and US economy in crisis mode with the debt shooting past $40 trillion, it was expected as well. We even saw bitcoin price jump up and break multiple strong resistances.
This proves that countries around the globe are actively accumulating gold as much as they can without letting the news go viral as much to keep the markets calm and prevent FOMO buys...

[OgNasty]

I’ve noticed that silver buyers are coming back to the table. At least for my personal products. There were a few weeks there where demand seemed to fall off a cliff. I think now that prices have stabilized at this new higher level, regular silver bugs are returning to their normal silver buying again.

[STT]

Anything above 50 I'm confident we're develop positively, once that low is established I'm bullish on the progression from there.  The  destabilization and worries on fiscal debt and deficit is enough to shake anyone to come back to silver and gold, nobody wants to find out their life savings are as useful as bags of leaves, paper promises that wont keep their value.

  I dont rate the central bank moves as more then preparation but their statement was good enough to rate their assets as money long term, so many people dont own any real value of this kind.  If every wage earner kept a coin or two it'd move the price greatly, its only common in asia maybe.

I thought this was a bigger story because it took them forever to get anyone independent to view the reserves: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/sen-rand-paul-visited-fort-120118587.html   https://x.com/SenRandPaul/status/2086863430623899673

Yen is rising on anticipation of rate rises, with lower USD the DXY hasn't trended above 100 for over a year now.  All Silver needs is continual demand which is apparently the case as supply is constricted and under funded across decades, price is secondary but I see no real challenges beyond speculative resets.