The gold thread

[Free Market Capitalist]

I've been thinking about starting this thread for a while, partly because of the rivalry between gold and Bitcoin as a store of value, and specifically this year because of the rise in gold, which has outperformed Bitcoin in terms of profitability.





We can see that so far this year, gold has more than doubled Bitcoin's returns, although if we go back just a little further, 12 months from today, the story is already different.

What could be the cause of this? On the one hand, central banks continue to accumulate gold, and, at least for now, they are not accumulating Bitcoin. This is curious, to say the least, because central banks are responsible for ensuring the integrity of fiat currency, and it seems that they are buying gold to protect themselves from the junk they are creating.

On the other hand, with the rise in gold prices this year, I am seeing more and more talk about gold everywhere. Metaphorically speaking, and following the phrase attributed to Rockefeller, I have even heard shoe shiners talking about buying gold. Or people thinking about taking out loans to buy it. This may indicate overheating, a bubble that should burst at some point and reverse the explosive growth that gold is experiencing this year.

For my part, I have a couple of gold pieces purely for diversification. I don't have more because I believe that in the future Bitcoin will take over much of the current gold market.

But I think we should continue to follow what happens with this metal, as it says a lot about the current economic situation, in which people increasingly distrust fiat currencies, and because of its relationship, whether rivalry or complementarity, with Bitcoin.

[adaseb]

Honestly Gold going up this much, in such a short order is worry-some. Why is everyone buying Gold all of a sudden? Its not a good sign.

Means the smart money is buying Gold because they see inflation going higher or they see some catastrophic event. Everything is over-leveraged and over-priced these days. Look at all those stocks with 500 PE ratios. Look at all these useless meme tokens worth billions. Eventually it will break but nobody knows when.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Honestly Gold going up this much, in such a short order is worry-some. Why is everyone buying Gold all of a sudden? Its not a good sign.

That's what I wonder. On the one hand, central banks are increasing their purchases, but on the other, I think a lot of retail investors are also buying gold. There are many people who still don't fully understand Bitcoin or see it as too volatile.

Means the smart money is buying Gold because they see inflation going higher or they see some catastrophic event.

The former, I believe.

Everything is over-leveraged and over-priced these days. Look at all those stocks with 500 PE ratios. Look at all these useless meme tokens worth billions. Eventually it will break but nobody knows when.

Not only that. I believe that more and more people are realizing that the CPI is a false measure, as we can all see that the prices of goods and services are rising more than this metric tells us.

[_act_]

Honestly Gold going up this much, in such a short order is worry-some. Why is everyone buying Gold all of a sudden? Its not a good sign.

Gold price can increase because of many reasons

Gold prices are increasing due to a combination of factors including its role as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, rising inflation, and central banks' increasing demand for gold. Investor demand has also increased, with more money flowing into ETFs backed by physical gold, and the devaluing of the US dollar making gold more attractive as an alternative asset.

But among them, I think it is increased more this time because of geopolitical tensions. Some people may be thinking we are very close to world war 3.

Gold price has history of not falling during major wars. In major wars, its price was increasing.

[Coyster]

Gold price continues to pump because of all the wars happening around the world, and i am talking about both armed conflicts and economic wars too. As a result of these conflicts, countries and institutions have been stockpiling on gold and i don't see the world getting any peace soon, so gold price will continue to rise.

I don't know if you are also following the Silver market, but it broke $50 an ounce for the first time in over forty years. Precious metals are on the rapid rise. Institutions and retail investors view them as safe haven assets, which is true. And in uncertain times and market, they are the go-to assets to retain value and accrue profits.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Metaphorically speaking, and following the phrase attributed to Rockefeller, I have even heard shoe shiners talking about buying gold. Or people thinking about taking out loans to buy it. This may indicate overheating, a bubble that should burst at some point and reverse the explosive growth that gold is experiencing this year.

Wow, when there were threads about people taking out loans or selling their houses and kids' toys to buy bitcoin it seems like there was no criticism of that behavior whatsoever--or talk of overheating.  My question to you, OP, is why you don't think bitcoin might be just a little bit overheated?  I'm not even saying that it is, just that there may be some bias here (which is not unexpected on a bitcoin forum).  But you never struck me as a member who'd be blind to that sort of thing.

Bitcoin and gold are both stores of value.  So are the dollar bills in my wallet and anything else that's expected to hold at least some value in the future.  That isn't even debatable; the real debate is about how risky each asset or commodity is in terms of its value over time.  To that extent gold has way more data points than bitcoin does, and I'm pretty sure even after the price of gold was allowed to float it hasn't been as volatile as bitcoin.  

But that makes me wonder if we're actually talking about stores of value or investments, because when we're comparing two graphs and talking about which line has had the higher slope while going up, up, up I suspect it's the latter.  

There are many people who still don't fully understand Bitcoin or see it as too volatile.

For some people, it might just be too volatile.  That isn't something to criticize, because different people have different tolerances for risk.  If I'm a 60-year old person, do you think I'd want to shift my retirement money into something like bitcoin?  You might have already thought about that at some point, but if not, I'd like to know what your opinion is after you have.

[ashmodeus]

Yes, it feels a little strange with this increase in gold prices or maybe because I don't really follow it because my investment in gold is not that big, but honestly, this is the first time I've seen such a significant price increase, because if we examine the history from year to year, the movement tends to be slow, but when Covid ended, gold showed good signs and a rare moment was this year, the increase in gold almost touched 36%. Could this be signs of a new trend in gold?

[Zlantann]

Gold price continues to pump because of all the wars happening around the world, and i am talking about both armed conflicts and economic wars too. As a result of these conflicts, countries and institutions have been stockpiling on gold and i don't see the world getting any peace soon, so gold price will continue to rise.

I don't know if you are also following the Silver market, but it broke $50 an ounce for the first time in over forty years. Precious metals are on the rapid rise. Institutions and retail investors view them as safe haven assets, which is true. And in uncertain times and market, they are the go-to assets to retain value and accrue profits.

Gold has built its reputation as a hedge against inflation. Historically investors see it as a safe asset during times of uncertainty like conflicts and wars. Bitcoin is gradually becoming popular among investors; it might someday be seen as a viable asset during economic downturns.

The increase in the price of silver is driven by some factors like high industrial demand since it is used in the production of electronics and solar energy. It wouldn't be a bad idea to diversify one's investment into some of these assets. However, Bitcoin remains the top asset.

[Dunamisx]

The more I keep holding not to invest on gold because of the fear of going down, then I continue in realizing how it has just started to pump up the more, gold is one of the most lucrative investment one could take advantage of investing this on it  aside Bitcoin, however, we should not also forget that this can not always be as the same, there are seasons it also falls.

There are many reasons to the uprising of gold as we can see the way many countries are lacking behind in economy performance and some are doing well, war here and there, market pump and dump and lots more causing lots of waste of resources and financial budget as the economy suffers the most in paying for these in return, maybe that is one of the reasons inflation will always be the order of the day with centralized markets and we are going to see gold rising the more.

[Alpha Marine]

But I think we should continue to follow what happens with this metal, as it says a lot about the current economic situation, in which people increasingly distrust fiat currencies, and because of its relationship, whether rivalry or complementarity, with Bitcoin.

I don't think it's a bubble. The central banks know that their currencies are losing value, and rich people can also see that inflation may become higher than it already is, so they buy. You know what happens when certain people start buying an asset like gold: FOMO sets in, and others follow, then the demand increases. It's a normal demand and supply. The problem is, will it continue like this? Do the investors trust it enough to keep their investment in gold, or might they decide to cash in on a profit?

I don't consider gold a rival to bitcoin. They have similarities, of course, but they're not competing with each both. They're two different investments that people should have if they have the money.
It is always good to have Bitcoin and Gold, but it should not be because people are buying or because of fear of missing out, and this is something a lot of people are doing now.
If Bitcoin starts pumping to over $130k now, you will see different investors, companies and even countries thinking about buying. They're neither here nor there, just going with the flow.

[Coyster]

Could this be signs of a new trend in gold?

I wouldn't call it a new trend. Gold has been known for ages as a safe haven asset, one that holds its value in uncertain times, such as one we are living in right now. I get that it is more renowned for retaining value than accruing huge profits in a shorter time, which is why it is much more appealing to the "older" generation. That's not to say young people do not buy gold. But there comes a certain age were a person must reduce the level of risk they want to get exposed to.

That said, the geopolitical tension around the world is palpable. Russia v Ukraine, Israel just ended their military action with Hamas, and i hope it holds up. The economic tension between the U.S. and China continues to brew and nobody knows what their next move could be. Inflation is rocking nearly every country on the surface of the earth, etc. All of these and more make precious metals a very attractive investment for smart investors, do not also forget how Central Bank's are backing that up as they continue to purchase gold, filling up their reserves.

[ASloveapg]

Bitcoin is now in the process of replacing gold and the dollar. And has long replaced them with better features. Bitcoin has already become globally tested and sustainable. It has faced various technical and economic challenges and is still surviving. Although new competition may come against Bitcoin in the future or some unknown weaknesses may appear within Bitcoin, it still maintains a strong position. It is logical to have doubts about the future of Bitcoin, but to dismiss it only because of possible flaws or to rely on the potential of another currency can be a decision that weakens one's position.

[philipma1957]

I've been thinking about starting this thread for a while, partly because of the rivalry between gold and Bitcoin as a store of value, and specifically this year because of the rise in gold, which has outperformed Bitcoin in terms of profitability.





We can see that so far this year, gold has more than doubled Bitcoin's returns, although if we go back just a little further, 12 months from today, the story is already different.

What could be the cause of this? On the one hand, central banks continue to accumulate gold, and, at least for now, they are not accumulating Bitcoin. This is curious, to say the least, because central banks are responsible for ensuring the integrity of fiat currency, and it seems that they are buying gold to protect themselves from the junk they are creating.

On the other hand, with the rise in gold prices this year, I am seeing more and more talk about gold everywhere. Metaphorically speaking, and following the phrase attributed to Rockefeller, I have even heard shoe shiners talking about buying gold. Or people thinking about taking out loans to buy it. This may indicate overheating, a bubble that should burst at some point and reverse the explosive growth that gold is experiencing this year.

For my part, I have a couple of gold pieces purely for diversification. I don't have more because I believe that in the future Bitcoin will take over much of the current gold market.

But I think we should continue to follow what happens with this metal, as it says a lot about the current economic situation, in which people increasingly distrust fiat currencies, and because of its relationship, whether rivalry or complementarity, with Bitcoin.

Gold sucks compared to btc if you cherry pick

Dec 2012 btc was a low as 9 dollars
Oct  2025 btc is 111000 dollars

Dec 2024 btc was 106k
Oct 2025 btc is 111000k


First case Btc crushes gold stomps it smashes it piss on it.
Second case Btc loses to gold.

Dec 2012 gold was up to 1675
Oct 2025 gold is 4100

So in 1 case gold is better.

And in 1 case gold sucks.

[mindrust]

I don't think this recent price hike on gold is a dangerous thing. It is just a healthy correction. I mean Gold was lagging behind for decades, what was supposed to happen? The FED has been printing billions and trillions lately while gold was sitting at $2000 an ounce. That price was obviously not going to hodl and guess what, it didn't. I knew that and I bought some gold long time ago. I haven't been adding any to my stash in the last 2 years because I have already bought the gold I'll ever possibly need in the future and they are doing just great nowadays. When you think how much FIAT the FED has printed in the last decade, even $4000 is still cheap. It should be $10k, $20k an ounce. I ain't selling any till I at least see 5 figures on gold. Remember,

1 ounce = 1 ounce.

[Moreno233]

I'm not surprised that seeing how gold is rising because recent activities in global politics suggest that there will be a shift from the US dollar. The rivalry between the west and the east is shifting things in a bipolar order and no one wants to leave anything to chance hence institutions are looking for a safe haven of which gold will be the greatest beneficiary because the old money and traditional businesses are yet to fully come to terms with Bitcoin. Nevertheless, Bitcoin will catch up but it will take some time and we should be patient with the process to see Bitcoin gain that level of trust.

[Free Market Capitalist]

I don't know if you are also following the Silver market, but it broke $50 an ounce for the first time in over forty years.

I am not following it too closely but yeah, I knew about that.

My question to you, OP, is why you don't think bitcoin might be just a little bit overheated?  I'm not even saying that it is, just that there may be some bias here (which is not unexpected on a bitcoin forum).  But you never struck me as a member who'd be blind to that sort of thing.

Bitcoin may be overheated, but given the current stage of the cycle and the fact that the price hasn't even doubled since the previous cycle's ATH, I'm inclined to think not.

So are the dollar bills in my wallet and anything else that's expected to hold at least some value in the future.  That isn't even debatable; the real debate is about how risky each asset or commodity is in terms of its value over time.

Decreasing value, at a fast pace, which partly explains why most assets keep going up in nominal terms.

For some people, it might just be too volatile.  That isn't something to criticize, because different people have different tolerances for risk.  If I'm a 60-year old person, do you think I'd want to shift my retirement money into something like bitcoin?  You might have already thought about that at some point, but if not, I'd like to know what your opinion is after you have.

I don't quite understand why you're asking me that in a thread about gold. I'm not going to give financial advice for retirement, but I can tell you what I have: a mix of Bitcoin, gold, investment funds, retirement accounts, and stocks.

Gold sucks compared to btc if you cherry pick

...

So in 1 case gold is better.

And in 1 case gold sucks.

Hey phillip, that's what I said in the OP:

We can see that so far this year, gold has more than doubled Bitcoin's returns, although if we go back just a little further, 12 months from today, the story is already different.

I don't think this recent price hike on gold is a dangerous thing. It is just a healthy correction. I mean Gold was lagging behind for decades, what was supposed to happen? The FED has been printing billions and trillions lately while gold was sitting at $2000 an ounce. That price was obviously not going to hodl and guess what, it didn't.

It probably is just as you say.

[pooya87]

What could be the cause of this?

Dedollarisation!

As the world spirals down into chaos and as US regime continues starting new wars of different types, the world continues dumping the dollar. They instead start accumulating gold to beef up their economy, specially if the next World War begins they'll need to back their fiat with anything they can.
This is why the central banks have been on a crazy gold buying spree over the past 3 years.

Each time the rogue regime in Washington does something nasty, the gold price jumps. Recently they intensified the economic war with China and China retaliated hard, therefore gold jumped another $200-$300.
Next they are eying Venezuela and could invade this oil rich country to steal its natural resources. We could then see gold jump another level of two.

[_act_]

What could be the cause of this?

Dedollarisation!

As the world spirals down into chaos and as US regime continues starting new wars of different types, the world continues dumping the dollar. They instead start accumulating gold to beef up their economy, specially if the next World War begins they'll need to back their fiat with anything they can.
This is why the central banks have been on a crazy gold buying spree over the past 3 years.

Each time the rogue regime in Washington does something nasty, the gold price jumps. Recently they intensified the economic war with China and China retaliated hard, therefore gold jumped another $200-$300.
Next they are eying Venezuela and could invade this oil rich country to steal its natural resources. We could then see gold jump another level of two.

You are right that some countries are heavily buying gold since 2022 which is 3 years as of 2025. Some central banks have bought more than 1000 tonnes of gold each year since 2022, unlike in 2010 to 2021 that they only bought around 481 481 tonnes of gold a year. This is more than double and it is what has been fueling gold price increase.

But the United States government shutdown is still part of the reason, not the major reason, but at least it is contributing to it. The trade war that Trump is causing is also contributing to it.

United States should not forget the reason countries started to trust dollar, gold can replace that to some extent.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Dedollarisation!

As the world spirals down into chaos and as US regime continues starting new wars of different types, the world continues dumping the dollar. They instead start accumulating gold to beef up their economy, specially if the next World War begins they'll need to back their fiat with anything they can.
This is why the central banks have been on a crazy gold buying spree over the past 3 years.

Each time the rogue regime in Washington does something nasty, the gold price jumps. Recently they intensified the economic war with China and China retaliated hard, therefore gold jumped another $200-$300.
Next they are eying Venezuela and could invade this oil rich country to steal its natural resources. We could then see gold jump another level of two.

I believe that is only partially true. There is a general mistrust of fiat currencies, not just the dollar. Many individuals have realized this and are investing to combat inflation. But even many central banks are rapidly accumulating gold, and in this regard, I think you are right. I think the turning point was when the US and European countries seized Russian assets because of the war in Ukraine. Why would you buy dollars or bonds from European countries and the US if they can be seized at any time? And yes, the country that is accumulating gold at the fastest rate is China, which is simultaneously reducing its positions in US bonds.

[Z_MBFM]

Honestly Gold going up this much, in such a short order is worry-some. Why is everyone buying Gold all of a sudden? Its not a good sign.

Means the smart money is buying Gold because they see inflation going higher or they see some catastrophic event. Everything is over-leveraged and over-priced these days. Look at all those stocks with 500 PE ratios. Look at all these useless meme tokens worth billions. Eventually it will break but nobody knows when.

The price of gold in the global market has been increasing rapidly recently and a big FOMO has now been created in the gold market. The price of gold has never increased at such a fast pace in its history. But this year, gold is growing as fast as crypto. However, gold is a strong metal which is also kept as a country's reserve. And its price remains at a stable level and increases gradually. But such a sudden rapid increase is not a positive sign. At any time, the price of gold can fall which will shake the whole world. People consider investing in gold as the safest investment but what is happening with gold suddenly can break this confidence of people. I am a little scared about this.