The gold thread

[d5000]

If certain central banks have been buying gold as if there were no tomorrow, it is unlikely that they will start selling like crazy in a decade's time. In the longer term, who knows?

I think yes, gold should be fairly safe in the next decade. That obviously doesn't mean that there can't be deep bear markets like those in the relative recent past. The 2010-15 bear with almost 50% loss could be still possible, although probably not "now", but in a couple of years.

Gold bear markets tend to be really long and thus psychologically more stressful than Bitcoin bear markets even if the latter go even deeper. In the case of Bitcoin we hadn't even the experience of a 2 year bear (the longest in 2013-15 was 1 year and 3 months), and much less a 20 year bear like 1980-2000.

The reason why I personally find gold unattractive though is that after the next peak such a bear market could directly evolve into a rivality with Bitcoin culminating in a gold-bitcoin flippening. If Bitcoin sees some bullish news in the next years (e.g. more adoption in countries where it lags currently due to regulations, like China, or a bigger US strategic reserve) and this coincides with bearish gold conditions, the "flippening" debate could heat up. And that could trigger central bank sales again.

But for that of course Bitcoin must become a bit less volatile to the downside, to be even considered for bigger reserves.

And currently, with announcement like the recent speech of NATO secretary Rutte fueling fears of a Russian attack to Nato states - even if it's "only" the Suvalki Gap in Lithuania or Svalbard - and a Trump who even encourages Putin with actions against Europe then I see a possibility for the gold bull market to continue for some years more. That can be the reason for the short term rise to less than 5% under the current gold ATH.

[dezoel]

To be fair, gold is always valued high not because of governments but because of scarcity and if you could have a lot of it then you are controlling a good chunk of it and companies would takeover for governments and would do the same thing. you think Apple or Nvidia or tesla would not get any gold?

Most of these companies even use gold for stuff, not a lot to be fair but they do, and if it's cheap, they would use it even more, and make it more scarce. We are talking about WATER, literally something that we need to be able to survive otherwise we die, is being used by these AI companies like crazy, you think they would cry over gold? They would get it and waste it anyway they wish, keeping it valuable as always.

[pooya87]

It's funny that if you had asked me a year ago, I would have considered it more likely that central banks would start replacing gold with Bitcoin, but given what has happened this year, it looks like if it does happen, it will take time.

I don't think they'll ever replace gold with bitcoin, but they may diversify into also including bitcoin in their reserves alongside gold. It is going to be a slow process mostly because they went the wrong direction first and they need to see that through before they come back. The wrong direction being creating their own centralized cryptocurrency (CBDC) first and then coming back to see the potential in bitcoin as a reserve and valuable asset and start adopting it.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Gold bear markets tend to be really long and thus psychologically more stressful than Bitcoin bear markets even if the latter go even deeper. In the case of Bitcoin we hadn't even the experience of a 2 year bear (the longest in 2013-15 was 1 year and 3 months), and much less a 20 year bear like 1980-2000.

I find this question interesting because I have been wondering about that very thing, and I have reflected on it in another thread. The sample size we have for Bitcoin is very small, and just because we haven't had a bear market lasting longer than two years doesn't mean we won't have one. What's more, I believe that possibility is becoming increasingly real.

The reason why I personally find gold unattractive though is that after the next peak such a bear market could directly evolve into a rivality with Bitcoin culminating in a gold-bitcoin flippening. If Bitcoin sees some bullish news in the next years (e.g. more adoption in countries where it lags currently due to regulations, like China, or a bigger US strategic reserve) and this coincides with bearish gold conditions, the "flippening" debate could heat up. And that could trigger central bank sales again.

That sounds a lot like 2023 or earlier to me. I mean, I could have said the same thing back then, and look what happened this year.

In any case, I remain much more bullish on Bitcoin than on gold in the long term, but I wonder if I am biased in this regard.

[ultrloa]

It's funny that if you had asked me a year ago, I would have considered it more likely that central banks would start replacing gold with Bitcoin, but given what has happened this year, it looks like if it does happen, it will take time.

I don't think they'll ever replace gold with bitcoin, but they may diversify into also including bitcoin in their reserves alongside gold. It is going to be a slow process mostly because they went the wrong direction first and they need to see that through before they come back. The wrong direction being creating their own centralized cryptocurrency (CBDC) first and then coming back to see the potential in bitcoin as a reserve and valuable asset and start adopting it.

Even if we can say that Bitcoin is the anchor of digital future still there's less cha chance for replacement will gonna happen. Gold is well established asset and its provably hard to convince everyone to abandon this asset and they shift on Bitcoin. Gold is now institution and provably will remain to be the top choice of traditional investor.

But history shows that there's a shift of thoughts happened since many investors now explore to diversify on Bitcoin so provably that Bitcoin will became an other option for investors that's why I really think that it will co exist together for many more years. Central banks is experimenting on that CBDC but once they realize that its completely failure and it get less demand for sure they abandon this project later on.

[MusaMohamed]

I don't think they'll ever replace gold with bitcoin, but they may diversify into also including bitcoin in their reserves alongside gold. It is going to be a slow process mostly because they went the wrong direction first and they need to see that through before they come back. The wrong direction being creating their own centralized cryptocurrency (CBDC) first and then coming back to see the potential in bitcoin as a reserve and valuable asset and start adopting it.

It's a low progress in nations that accepts to add Bitcoin to their national reserves and Bitcoin will have very small portion of their national reserves. It's the known principle that if you just start with something, start small, assess how it works after a while before increasing your money spent for it. Nations will do the same and with their national budget that is huge, they have more big reasons to be careful with their adoption on Bitcoin.

[pooya87]

~
Central banks is experimenting on that CBDC but once they realize that its completely failure and it get less demand for sure they abandon this project later on.

To be clear I don't think CBDCs are going to be a complete failure, not all of them anyways. Specially since we've seen the Chinese one in action and it has been very successful so far and its adoption is actually increasing every day.

What I'm saying is that going in the CBDC direction has made them blind on the potential that bitcoin has. They wanted control so they ignored the thing they couldn't control and created what they could control; all the while forgetting that even without having total control they still can benefit from adopting bitcoin as an alternative to gold.

[AgriTrack]

Gold has always been an excellent asset, a so-called safe haven for any financial asset, but now, due to such a frantic rise, gold is extremely overvalued, which is a very bad sign for investing in it right now. Yet people continue to buy gold due to the crowd effect, even though it's clearly already being overvalued. After all, it's an asset that has no physical value. It can't be useful in everyday life.

Gold is a type of assets that not only have the attraction for all investor but household also because of its strong economic value. Alhough we don't use it in our daily lives. it's worth always remains high. Here unlike paper currency gold cannot be printed but it's never lose it's value due to scarcity and globally acceptance. It also acts as a hedge against inflation or currency evaluation. Calling it useless because we don't use it daily is unreasonable. Many other assets are also we not used daily like share bonds or real state land etc yet they are considered value able. people have confidence fully on gold although the rapid increase in price but still it has attraction for the investors.

Every investment carries some level of risk but as compared to other assets gold is more reliable asssets that used to keep away the investor from the losses. Moreover it has liquidity power it can easily be converted in money in world wide. It also perform well even in uncertain economy. So it always remains as essential and Components of  a diversified investment portfoli

[Free Market Capitalist]

Well, it looks like gold is trying to hit new highs again, while Bitcoin is staying kind of sideways in the $90K range. Summary of the year (with 15 days to go before closing).

Gold.



Bitcoin.

[abhiseshakana]

Well, it looks like gold is trying to hit new highs again, while Bitcoin is staying kind of sideways in the $90K range. Summary of the year (with 15 days to go before closing).

Gold.



Bitcoin.

Many equate one-year performance with long-term fortunes, but a one-year chart doesn't explain an asset's structural function. Bitcoin and gold operate in different market patterns. Furthermore, returns don't necessarily indicate asset quality. Gold rises due to market panic and a search for safety, while Bitcoin rises when the market experiences liquidity expansion and risk-taking, so the timing of the two is not the same.

I interpret the chart you included as gold fulfilling its classic role as a store of value in an uncertain market pattern, serving as a hedge against monetary risk, protection against geopolitical uncertainty, and a hedge when confidence in fiat weakens. Bitcoin, on the other hand, isn't failing, but it hasn't become a safe haven over the past one year. It's in a consolidation/distribution phase, not an expansionary phase. Volatility remains high, with large drawdowns, typical of risk assets. The BTC market is currently highly sensitive to global liquidity, interest rate expectations, and institutional inflows and outflows.

The market is prioritizing hedging, not future optionality, because the market is in a monetary risk-off condition/pattern where gold naturally outperforms (gold is a sovereign reserve asset, non-volatile, suitable for central bank balance sheets). Bitcoin is sideways, but that doesn't mean bitcoin is failing and being outperformed by gold. Bitcoin wasn't designed for that role (not yet). Bitcoin is a neutral monetary asset owned by individuals and free markets, not a tool for state stabilization. Bitcoin will outperform when market patterns shift back to liquidity expansion and digital monetary adoption. Therefore, gold wins in its institutional state hedging function, not in its long-term global monetary function.

[Cheema02]

To be fair, gold is always valued high not because of governments but because of scarcity and if you could have a lot of it then you are controlling a good chunk of it and companies would takeover for governments and would do the same thing. you think Apple or Nvidia or tesla would not get any gold?

Most of these companies even use gold for stuff, not a lot to be fair but they do, and if it's cheap, they would use it even more, and make it more scarce. We are talking about WATER, literally something that we need to be able to survive otherwise we die, is being used by these AI companies like crazy, you think they would cry over gold? They would get it and waste it anyway they wish, keeping it valuable as always.

You are right about gold and its true that Gold has always retain it's worth because its demands always high and the other reason its scarcity in world. If a small portion of gold is given to large corporations then they control it well as the government control it. Large companies like apple, Nvidia and Tesla used gold in electronics department so if gold become more accessible then its demand obviously increased but gold is rear in univers so its scarcity makes its value back. You give a very solid example of water, as we know water is essential for living, yet it is consuming at larger scale in the world. If the companies willing to used something as vital as water they would have no hesitation to aquring it and use it for economic advantage. So the learning point is that gold remain valuable regardless of who controls it.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Gold price has reached new highs today.



Gold and silver hit records as investors hunt for safety

The gold price has hit another record high, trading above $4,400 (£3,275) an ounce for the first time.

The price of the precious metal has risen on expectations the US central bank will cut interest rates further next year, analysts said.

Gold started the year worth $2,600 an ounce, but geopolitical tensions, the Trump tariffs and expectations of rate cuts have added to investor demand for safe haven assets, such as gold and other commodities.

I believe this diminishes expectations of a near future in which Bitcoin will surpass gold in market cap.

[Free Market Capitalist]

It's time to bump the thread as gold hit a new ATH today.

Gold tops $4,600/oz as Fed uncertainty fans safe-haven rush

Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs Globally



This year, I'm not so much looking forward to seeing how gold will perform on its own, but rather how it will compare to Bitcoin, while also keeping an eye on silver.

[d5000]

Gold is close to $5000 now.

However, I have a feeling that it could be close to the end of the bull run.

The reason: The surge in the last days could be related to Trump's Greenland annexation threats. If Trump had materialized these, it would have dramatic consequences to the world's security architecture. I don't think it would have led to war, but NATO would have been seriously weakened, leading many to believe that we're heading into "unsafe" times. And the possible tariff war between US and Europe would have set back expectations for the economy and the stock market. And that "unsafety sentiment" is exactly the fuel gold needs to sustain its bullrun.

Now that the tensions seem to have de-escalated, the price did ... not fall. It rose even $100 more! I guess the $5000 will probably fall, it's a psychological mark too close to be the top of the bubble. But then, the outlook could be quite grim: What else could rise the "unsafety sentiment" more than a collapsing (or at least weakened) NATO? IMO only a full scale war involving either the US or China.

So if the de-escalation of global conflicts continue, then the gold price would be only fueled by FOMO, and that's a sign that it could end soon.

Thus I think: It's unlikely the gold bubble gets to more than 6000-6500$. And anything above $5000 is likely to be a bad entry price.

If the gold bullrun/bubble deflates rapidly, then Bitcoin could profit from the resulting panic, if it doesn't crash too of course.

[BlackBoss_]

Gold is close to $5000 now.

However, I have a feeling that it could be close to the end of the bull run.

The reason: The surge in the last days could be related to Trump's Greenland annexation threats. If Trump had materialized these, it would have dramatic consequences to the world's security architecture. I don't think it would have led to war, but NATO would have been seriously weakened, leading many to believe that we're heading into "unsafe" times. And the possible tariff war between US and Europe would have set back expectations for the economy and the stock market. And that "unsafety sentiment" is exactly the fuel gold needs to sustain its bullrun.

Gold will continue its bull run and other metals too as I see Greenland is only one small piece added to the world chaos recently while there are more things to happen in the future. China vs Taiwan, North Korea vs South Korea and their engagement in Russia war against Ukraine or perhaps in Iran in coming months, and other likely wars will put the world more chaotic. It's perfect time for metals like gold, silver, copper and other metals to shine, it's their time.

Analysis?

[Free Market Capitalist]

Gold is close to $5000 now.

However, I have a feeling that it could be close to the end of the bull run...

So if the de-escalation of global conflicts continue, then the gold price would be only fueled by FOMO, and that's a sign that it could end soon.

I'm not so sure about that, first of all because of what BlackBoss_ says. There are other potential conflicts around the world. But if we look at what happened last year, gold rose on similar occasions, when turbulence was looming on the horizon, and when things calmed down, the price remained flat before rising again at the slightest sign of improvement. There was only one significant drop back in October, but that was a logical correction after the previous sharp rise. And the price rose again shortly thereafter.

If the gold bullrun/bubble deflates rapidly, then Bitcoin could profit from the resulting panic, if it doesn't crash too of course.

I plan to provide monthly updates on the price of gold vs. Bitcoin during this year. I believe that depending on how the two assets perform, we will be able to draw conclusions.

[arwin100]

Gold is close to $5000 now.

However, I have a feeling that it could be close to the end of the bull run...

So if the de-escalation of global conflicts continue, then the gold price would be only fueled by FOMO, and that's a sign that it could end soon.

I'm not so sure about that, first of all because of what BlackBoss_ says. There are other potential conflicts around the world. But if we look at what happened last year, gold rose on similar occasions, when turbulence was looming on the horizon, and when things calmed down, the price remained flat before rising again at the slightest sign of improvement. There was only one significant drop back in October, but that was a logical correction after the previous sharp rise. And the price rose again shortly thereafter.

History shows usually raised when there's crisis or trouble happen globally, What happen last year somehow proves the pattern that issues push the price to go up, if there's correction happen this is temporary and what follow after is the frequent price pump.

What happen last October dip does not show its weakness, but rather its like certain healthy pull backs maybe in preparation for a next pump. Lots of people think gold as their ultimate safe haven asset that's why we see it pumping and gather lots of demands when those trouble occur. I expect that this current rally with gold will continue especially that global conflicts still happening.

[d5000]

I see Greenland is only one small piece added to the world chaos recently while there are more things to happen in the future. China vs Taiwan, North Korea vs South Korea and their engagement in Russia war against Ukraine or perhaps in Iran in coming months, and other likely wars will put the world more chaotic.

First, China vs. Taiwan as a military conflict probably won't happen. < 5%, probably even < 2 % likelihood if you ask me. China is the world's leading export nation and simply can't afford being sanctioned and boycotted by dozens of important markets. In addition, the reason for their interest in Taiwan is commerce, i.e. to prevent foreign intrusion of important trade routes. So any type of military conflict there simply doesn't make sense. And China's government is much more rational than Russia's.

The only chance would have been a complete destabilization of the traditional alliances. This means: If Trump really occupied Greenland, then I guess the probability for a Taiwan annexation attempt (or increased threats) could have risen, because China could then point out that they are doing only what "Western" nations do too, and thus be less "punished" by other countries (NATO would of course have sanctioned them).

North Korea vs. South Korea I see not really an increase of beligerance. Propaganda from the NK side has often been harsh and hostile.

So what's left? Iran. This is a more realistic chance for gold/metals to continue to be fueled by the "unsafety sentiment". I honestly am not expert enough to evaluate that risk. So it is possible that any worsening of that conflict could fuel the gold/metal rally some time more.

The reason however why I think this is a quite weak argument for a sustained rally is that gold has already FOMOed for a long time now and the last leg has been very steep (d'you remember that from somewhere, Bitcoiners? ). To buy something for $5000 which was worth $3000 just a year ago you need striking arguments to believe it would grow even more. Iran, as a potential regional conflict, can be the reason to prolongate the "unsafety" sentiment for some months, but not for years. That will either de-escalate somewhen, or there will be a regime change and that's it. What's left for gold's rally if the regime change happens?

A NATO collapse would have been much different. It would have been perceived as the collapse of the world order, and in this case I'd given gold relatively safe $10k.

PS: Regarding the Brandt analysis, the rally is already steeper than even the end phase in 2011. The 1980 rally seems to have been an extreme outlier (and its consequences were also extreme: a 20 year bear market ...).

[suhadi88]

I plan to provide monthly updates on the price of gold vs. Bitcoin during this year. I believe that depending on how the two assets perform, we will be able to draw conclusions.

Very interesting, sir. I'd love to see a correlation between the two assets' increases. I mean, both could rise simultaneously, for example, gold reaching its all-time high at $8,500 and BTC doubling its current price, say $180K. Is that possible?

[whiteblue]

I plan to provide monthly updates on the price of gold vs. Bitcoin during this year. I believe that depending on how the two assets perform, we will be able to draw conclusions.

Very interesting, sir. I'd love to see a correlation between the two assets' increases. I mean, both could rise simultaneously, for example, gold reaching its all-time high at $8,500 and BTC doubling its current price, say $180K. Is that possible?

I hesitate to say, but it is possible that when Gold begins to correct, liquidity could shift to Bitcoin, of course with a situation supported by geopolitical conditions that have begun to subside in conflict, this will increase speculation on Bitcoin during calm times, Bitcoin is always the best choice, people will stop thinking about the escalation of conflict and refocus on economic growth and their assets, we know that the narrative of Gold is a strong and safe currency when escalation occurs, if escalation does not occur then we will be very optimistic about Bitcoin.