Near miss: It is really random or control design?

[Dave1]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

[masulum]

I don't understand how the system works, but logically, near miss are the highest probability in a slot machine. This designed to be random, but because the system also implemented the probability, near miss maybe thi highest percentage, let say if free spins bonus has probability 1%, near miss can be 50% out of probability. I'm not sure if this is manipulative, but since slots are based on random and probability, with varying degrees of difficulty for each symbol, I'd say this is by design.

[Charles-Tim]

It is not manipulation, games now can be independently verified by anyone that is interested. Reputable casinos can let you verify if a game is being manipulated or not.

Near miss is just random and not manipulation. Casinos games are built already in a way that the way the odds are set, gamblers whave highest chance to lose. So why should there be manipulation when the gamblers will let the gambling site make money.

[Yaunfitda]

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

Casino's can't manipulate the result of a slot game, maybe the provider of the casino itself. But systems have been in place to check if the result is provably fair. Unlike in land base wherein you really don't know. And so with that, it's random, maybe the program should insert itself to check your bankroll and then give you near misses so that you will be affected psychology, but that was just my hunch and it's hard to proved. And logically, it's hard to think in the beginning of slot history, there are no near miss, it could have been really built in the system to make the game more fun and exciting and recently we might have just coin this term of near-miss or near hit but before gamblers just play how it was designed.

[Zlantann]

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

Except you have valid proof about the situation, our assumptions are just based on speculation. I have heard it several times that these casinos are manipulating the system to make people get hooked because of close wins. But none of them have backed these claims with substantial evidence. Casinos are business ventures established to make profit. Some business owners can go to extremes to make gains, so I cannot conclude that such things are not happening.   

It is not manipulation, games now can be independently verified by anyone that is interested. Reputable casinos can let you verify if a game is being manipulated or not.

To be on the safe side, one should consider gambling at reputable casinos that have proven over the years to be fair and trustworthy. Since the reputation of these casinos is at stake, they might not indulge in such manipulations.   

[swogerino]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

In slot machines it is absolutely not random at all. I can give a lot of examples about this but I will give you a major one regarding a very old slot game of 2019, Swords and the Holy Grail from Play n Go provider. There is proven by many gamblers who claim the same but one can test for themselves and it is a whopping 33% near miss regarding the feature game, you will miss it a lot of times and most people will be motivated by such design to continue playing. I personally see this as a deal breaker so I don't like these type of games and their designs so far, I used to love them but boy I am not stupid, if the game messes with you with 33% near miss you better stop playing.

[Taskford]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

Its psychological manipulation that can make gamblers think about they are closely hitting the jackpot. With this situation will urge gamblers to gamble for more since they might think about today is their lucky day.

But we don't know if this is actual manipulation but it seems that there are casinos maybe doing it.

I usually notice this thing happen on wheels especially if the casino give 1 daily free spin.

[Inwestour]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

I try never to judge any loss where I was just a little short of a big win as some kind of coincidence or special action from the casino or the team I bet on. I believe these are all random events that are very hard to predict, and it doesn’t really matter to me how my bet lost. Whether I was just a little short of a bigger win or a few teams in my parlay lost for me, it’s still a loss. That’s why I just keep playing and don’t worry too much about it, because losing is an inevitable part of gambling.

[ultraBTC]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

Great topic.

There is a clear distinguish between natural "near misses", that will of course naturally happen over series of events - and manipulated "near misses".

The first one is of course not in question, since it naturally happens. The problem is when the game deliberately replaces your "losing" event with the one that looks like a "near miss" - in other words, looks exciting. Basically, luring players into thinking they were close to that max win or jackpot, when in reality they weren't. Thus, it's misleading by the definition.

Now, regarding the second one - it's called "secondary decision". Basically a process where, after a losing event, the machine pulls the RNG again - and chooses an "exciting one" to display.

A precedent happened in Vegas, back in 1989. Bally Manufacturing was accused of using software that produced too many "near misses" on purpose. You can find the original article here: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-06-04-mn-2501-story.html

After that, the Nevada Gaming Commission explicitly forbade any kind of secondary decision or manipulation of losing outcomes to appear as near wins. And it’s not only the case with Nevada - similar rules exist in the UKGC, Australia, and Ontario, for example.

Oh, and one more thing. The frequency of real near misses depends on reel mapping. You can design a slot machine that naturally has more near-misses than another. For example, if the highest-paying symbol appears on a 5-reel machine as follows:

Code:

Reel 1: 1 jackpot symbol on 40 possible stops
Reel 2: 3 on 40
Reel 3: 4 on 40
Reel 4: 6 on 40
Reel 5: 6 on 40

There is far more chance that the highest-paying symbol will hit on the 3rd, 4th, or 5th reel respectively than the first one. Since for example, that slot machine pay left-to-right, it can produce a so-called "natural near miss" effect - missing that symbol on the first reel for a max win or jackpot more often.


So, in theory – and under some regulatory requirements – near misses on purpose are indeed forbidden.
Though, as most online players have experienced, it’s still a wild, wild west in parts of this space.

[Sim_card]

Near miss is random and not manipulation because we have reputable casinos who cannot manipulate the results of customer bets. If you have a near miss, it means that your luck waved away from you at that moment if not you wouldn't have a near miss. Don't forget that gambling is more of luck which makes near miss a norm in gambling.

[Mrbluntzy]

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

A reputable casinos don't have to manipulate the results, the outcome you are getting each time you role the dice is based on randomness. Mind you, the casino's house edge allows for the casinos to be winning more than the players does. The player is only moving in a circle with all the multiplayers set in place the casinos has already set the math of the game how it should go. If you play like 4 times, you could win only the last 4th round which will make you feel that the time to win has come  ] but when you continue to play, you still lose on the 5th round and maybe win the 6th round. That's how it works, it's a manipulative way for the casinos to keep you playing and chasing after a win, but they don't manipulate the results unless the casinos are operated by scammers.

[Wiwo]

Same way thinking that early winnings are signs of your luck on a casino, that is sarcastic indeed, because for a probability sake abd verifiable games its elude such thoughts that casinos manipulate the games outcome.

But come to think of it again, house edge exist on some games, that shows the level of games control, but one thing for sure games like sports games is highly uncontrollable unless you play the virtual games not real sports games like betting on Premier leagues and champions leagues also.

But the conclusion is that near miss or winning strides syndrome are all part of gambling and that is just your thoughts you need to control it to gamble amount you can afford to gamble with.

[dunfida]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

Its psychological manipulation that can make gamblers think about they are closely hitting the jackpot. With this situation will urge gamblers to gamble for more since they might think about today is their lucky day.

But we don't know if this is actual manipulation but it seems that there are casinos maybe doing it.

I usually notice this thing happen on wheels especially if the casino give 1 daily free spin.

Near misses are one of the oldest psychological tricks in gambling and they work better than any marketing ad they keep players hooked even when they’re losing because your brain treats a near miss almost like a partial win it triggers the same dopamine response making you think you were so close and that maybe the next spin or next bet will finally land. Many researchers already confirmed that this isn’t random chance at least not entirely especially on digital slots and wheel games the algorithms are programmed to deliver near misses often enough to keep players emotionally invested but not enough to actually pay out it’s not exactly rigged in a cheating sense because the outcomes still follow randomization rules but the frequency of near misses can be intentionally designed to manipulate your perception of luck.

Casinos know how powerful that illusion of “almost winning” is it builds anticipation and hope even though statistically you’re no closer to hitting a jackpot than before for example on daily free spins you’ll often see two matching jackpot symbols land and the third one just stop short that’s deliberate design meant to keep you engaged and thinking maybe tomorrow will be the lucky day.

[mindrust]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

Could be both actually since we don’t know the code the casinos run in their backend servers, how could we know what they are really doing for sure? I don’t think well established casinos do that since they already print millions every day from their operations. They don’t need to cheat at all. Newly established casinos might do that though. I would be careful with that but still it is a small possibility. I think most near misses are random. People also tend to remember those moments way more often than their actual wins and losses so there is also that.

[Porfirii]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

Could be both actually since we don’t know the code the casinos run in their backend servers, how could we know what they are really doing for sure? I don’t think well established casinos do that since they already print millions every day from their operations. They don’t need to cheat at all. Newly established casinos might do that though. I would be careful with that but still it is a small possibility. I think most near misses are random. People also tend to remember those moments way more often than their actual wins and losses so there is also that.

That's what I also think: well established casinos have no need to do that, and the risk would outperform the benefit. In many countries (mine included) in addition, slots are regulated and those with a license must pass audits from time to time to ensure they comply with regulation.

So, there is less chance of finding an increased number of near misses by design in big casinos and provably fair ones rather than in shady or brand new casinos, that are not accountable to anyone and can do whatever they want.

[aoluain]

Its my understanding that the games have random outcomes and machines are programmed
to only payout jackpots within X number of spins, its random but with a house edge. I would
expect everyone to know this already and in that randomness there is going to be "close calls".

Personally I treat every result as an independent event. Its very easy to think there is a pattern
or that a jackpot is near - thats just psychological. I view a "close call" as not being close
to a jackpot win and so I stick to my budget and 'strategy'.

[Dunamisx]

Casinos are not after your winnings or losses, that is why they cant set up anything that could attracted to close to near misses or so, but we make decision base on how we have seen a game play being our favourite and how we already enjoyed playing without considering for wining or losing, that is why some gamblers don't mind losing, they will always play and continue in having fun, this was not being done because of the casino influence, but what they have decide for gambling.

[xenomorfo]

I don't understand how the system works, but logically, near miss are the highest probability in a slot machine. This designed to be random, but because the system also implemented the probability, near miss maybe thi highest percentage, let say if free spins bonus has probability 1%, near miss can be 50% out of probability. I'm not sure if this is manipulative, but since slots are based on random and probability, with varying degrees of difficulty for each symbol, I'd say this is by design.

I believe that many casinos are certified with a system that represents a kind of proof that they are not cheating, without this not many will be happy to put money in a place where you do not know if they will scam you or not.
Obviously the state is always a great absentee, using old and useless systems to help customers

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Its my understanding that the games have random outcomes and machines are programmed
to only payout jackpots within X number of spins, its random but with a house edge. I would
expect everyone to know this already and in that randomness there is going to be "close calls".

And is what we call return to players, but I don't know if in Jackpot you need x number of spins, but you could be right now. Because we really don't know if a machine is a hot or cold but then randomly regardless of how small or big your stake is, suddenly will go down and you hit the jackpot. I have seen this once in a land base casinos, someone hit like $1.7 million.

Personally I treat every result as an independent event. Its very easy to think there is a pattern
or that a jackpot is near - thats just psychological. I view a "close call" as not being close
to a jackpot win and so I stick to my budget and 'strategy'.

Of course every spin is independent, but there will be times that you will get like 2 of that bonus scatter or even some wildcard to complete 3 and then the bonus features appear. But that is the problem, you feel that you are almost there with just 2 and missing that 1 and so you played again. There might not be a strategy for those who are chasing this jackpot.

[cryptoaddictchie]

In a follow up to this topic, For those who experience near miss, does it motivate you to play more or stop?

Do you guys think that casinos if what we think that they have the control designed this near miss outcomes so that they can hook players to go and chase or this is just random chance to see two symbol for a almost bonus rounds?

Because I've seen others says that it's random but there could be thoughts that at some point casinos are manipulating this result to give us some hope that maybe if we deposit for more, we might hit the jackpot and no longer that near miss?

I believed theres some sort of manipulations too. Yes near miss is quite tempting for gamblers ofcourse their tendency it to play more as they see some hope that next time it will happened soon. I cant blame some casino for that because we all kmow that this is also a business for them and needed some advantage over players. But ofcourse the process wouldnt be disclosed and will be subtle as possible.