Odds and chances differences, let's closes this damn debate forever!!!!

[stompix]

I think I got not just tired but over the top bored and annoyed with the constant discussion on odds and chances of that happening.

I feel like any explanations that take more than two lines will just be skipped over in every damn topic as not that many are interested in replying but keep repeating the same nonsense, so in this age where a clip more than 20 seconds long is too much for the attention span of some, let's keep it simple!

Chance = how likely something is to happen, it's percentage-wise, 25%, 56%,89%
Odds = how much money you get if it happens 2x, 4x, 10x !

Chance =/=  Odds!

Odds don't represent the chance for something to happen! If you still think so, then be a sweetheart and explain to me the chances of Royer winning!



I think that anyone with a working brain would realize it's impossible for the guy to have different chances of winning the match!  
The guy has the same chances of winning, you get paid more depending on what odds from what bookie you take!!!!

[Sticky Bomb]

I feel the chances are always equal, like 50 50 for each team because anything can happen and a team can get victorious regardless of the strength of their squad. There are chances of the stronger team getting a red card or injuries and it favors the underdogs to win peacefully.

The odds actually determine how much you get which is the odds given to a team multiplied by your stake just like you illustrated. Its clear and I wish this thread settles the misconception.

[acroman08]

I'm not a huge sports bettor, so I could be totally wrong, but I always thought odds are implied chance. What I meant by it is that the lower the odds for a team, the higher the chance of them winning based on the statistics the odd provider has. as for how much chance is implied on an odd, I do not know.

[Patikno]

So, does that mean the higher the odds, the lower the chance of it happening? Because I think it is the case, meaning that the harder to predict results have the highest rewards, or vice versa, meaning the lower the odds, then the greater the chance of winning. Cmiiw.

Talking about odds, I just learned that there are different types of odds, such as Moneyline Odds, Fractional Odds, and Decimal Odds. I have encountered them frequently at various online casinos I have tried, but personally, I prefer the Decimal Odds display, which is easier to do calculations.

Here are some explanations regarding this matter, or regarding the types of odds that I mentioned : investopedia.com - Sports Betting Odds: How They Work and How to Read Them

[Agbamoni]

So, does that mean the higher the odds, the lower the chance of it happening? Because I think it is the case, meaning that the harder to predict results have the highest rewards, or vice versa, meaning the lower the odds, then the greater the chance of winning. Cmiiw.

I dont think you understand what he meant. The lower/higher the odds dont represent the chances of the outcome happening. I have seen the smallest of odd not happening on many occasion while the largest odd that look almost impossible gets done. Every sport game vary so the chances of anything happening depends on what happens in the event. When you choose your odds you should be just lucky to win.

[stompix]

So, does that mean the higher the odds, the lower the chance of it happening?

The probability of something determines the odds, then people betting on that event lower or rise the odds without influencing the chances.
Let's assume everyone in the world will put $100 on Girona, in a few seconds the odds for Girona will be 1.0001 as the bookies will obviously have no way of keeping those sky-high odds at bay, Barcelona will probably be at 100:1 with hundreds of millions bet against them, so.... would that make it almost sure Barcelona will lose? Of course not!

Odds don't represent chances, odds represent only the payout you're going to get, nothing else!

[Cointxz]

So, does that mean the higher the odds, the lower the chance of it happening?

The probability of something determines the odds, then people betting on that event lower or rise the odds without influencing the chances.
Let's assume everyone in the world will put $100 on Girona, in a few seconds the odds for Girona will be 1.0001 as the bookies will obviously have no way of keeping those sky-high odds at bay, Barcelona will probably be at 100:1 with hundreds of millions bet against them, so.... would that make it almost sure Barcelona will lose? Of course not!

Odds don't represent chances, odds represent only the payout you're going to get, nothing else!

This is correct since the odds of the sportsbook changed progressively. They initially listed the odds based on probability which bookie evaluated until it progressed that incorporates already all the bets received on each side to balance the book.

So anyone using the odds way as to determine probability might encounter some problem if they bet on player or team that is just pure hype or have a strong popularity among the bettor.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

What's the confusion that some persons are having because I don't see this as something too difficult to understand except for a newbies who just started betting, might not know yet that the odds are the determinants of the returns they get, although I see that in some comments some people place their bets based on the odd but that's because the person doesn't know how to make prediction, if they truly knows how to make predictions, they can analyze an know the team that stand the best chance to win.

[AbuBhakar]

What's the confusion that some persons are having because I don't see this as something too difficult to understand except for a newbies who just started betting, might not know yet that the odds are the determinants of the returns they get, although I see that in some comments some people place their bets based on the odd but that's because the person doesn't know how to make prediction, if they truly knows how to make predictions, they can analyze an know the team that stand the best chance to win.

If you check the previous thread dedicated for this topic like the thread attached below you will notice that some user still assume that the lower the odds means the high chance to win since they think that it’s the winning percentage.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5562640.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5562640.0

It’s very hard to determine the actual winning percentage of the game if we will consider the strength of the team and the individual player skills.

[Ziskinberg]

Odds don't represent the chance for something to happen! If you still think so, then be a sweetheart and explain to me the chances of Royer winning!

I guess if we’re talking about the outcome of a game using moneyline odds, then yes, the odds can somehow reflect the actual chances of the result. Otherwise, if they didn’t, bookies could just set whatever odds they wan, and sharp sports bettors would easily exploit that.

Let me explain a bit based on my understanding:

Team A has odds of 1.80, and Team B has 2.05.
If I interpret that correctly, 1.80 represents about 55.6% implied probability, while 2.05 represents around 48.8%.

That's according to this tool https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

[masulum]

Odds in betting primarily refer to the payout we'll receive if win from a bet. However, in some cases, these odds also indicate the implied probability of an event. Why do big teams facing weak teams have low odds? The answer is that the big team has a higher chance of winning than the weak team, resulting in lower odds for the payout. Therefore, people indicate that lower odds implicitly mean that the team with the low odds has a greater chance of winning than its opponent.

CMIIW.

[danherbias07]

Odds for many tell how high the percentage of winning or losing a player or a team is.

An x5.00 means a very low chance to win. An x1.10 means a very likely to win. But it doesn't always go that way. I once bet x7.00 for a UFC player. A very underdog odds given to her. I won it.
So the chances of winning according to odds don't really tell what is going to happen. It's the oddsmaker's basis using records, but they don't really know the result.
Still, if a player or a team is known for losing most of their matches, this is where we should be careful. The super underdog will likely lose, and it just means the opponent is very strong.

[Satofan44]

It is sure annoying but you must understand why such misunderstandings come in the first place. A super majority of adults and that includes users of this forum are unable to pass a basic university statistics class. When it comes to math, their skulls are empty shells.

I feel the chances are always equal, like 50 50 for each team because anything can happen and a team can get victorious regardless of the strength of their squad. There are chances of the stronger team getting a red card or injuries and it favors the underdogs to win peacefully.

Feelings are not involved in the probabilities of events. The chances are never equal. You don't know the basics of statistics, you need to shut up and start reading things before responding. Get back to the basics:

• Possibility also known as anything can happen. Yes, each team technically can win or lose. This has nothing to do with chances.
• Probability also known as chances or the likelihood of something happening. Odds have nothing to do with this and neither does possibility.

I'm not a huge sports bettor, so I could be totally wrong, but I always thought odds are implied chance. What I meant by it is that the lower the odds for a team, the higher the chance of them winning based on the statistics the odd provider has. as for how much chance is implied on an odd, I do not know.

The odds are reflecting the results of the bookmaker's analysis of the situation. They do not represent real world probabilities, it is not really possible to create an objective chance on such a complex event.
People often add a x1.05 or x1.1 for their slips if they need additional entries and then they win the whole ticket with different high odds and lose the x1.05 one. The probably of the betting ticket actually resolving in this way is extremely low but it happens regularly which further confirms that odds have nothing to do with objective mathematical probabilities.  

[Sticky Bomb]

It is sure annoying but you must understand why such misunderstandings come in the first place. A super majority of adults and that includes users of this forum are unable to pass a basic university statistics class. When it comes to math, their skulls are empty shells.

I feel the chances are always equal, like 50 50 for each team because anything can happen and a team can get victorious regardless of the strength of their squad. There are chances of the stronger team getting a red card or injuries and it favors the underdogs to win peacefully.

Feelings are not involved in the probabilities of events. The chances are never equal. You don't know the basics of statistics, you need to shut up and start reading things before responding. Get back to the basics:

• Possibility also known as anything can happen. Yes, each team technically can win or lose. This has nothing to do with chances.
• Probability also known as chances or the likelihood of something happening. Odds have nothing to do with this and neither does possibility.

Well, its obvious to me that you're the worst student of courtesy in discussion evident by your irrational usage of words and it does me no good to argue with someone who isn't a gambler but continues to pose like one because you've to complete post counts. Every user here responds according to their own judgement and so did I. If you knew the basics and even if you do watch football matches or is able to analyze football events correctly or even gamble at all, your brain would recognize that from the inception of a match, no team has more chances at win except for those they create for themselves within the match together with the events that unfold within the match proceedings.

[stompix]

Let me explain a bit based on my understanding:

Team A has odds of 1.80, and Team B has 2.05.
If I interpret that correctly, 1.80 represents about 55.6% implied probability, while 2.05 represents around 48.8%.
That's according to this tool https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Bruh, in  the randomly picked match above in the first post
Royer was 1.47  on Betpanda
Royer was also 1.4 on Betfair
So, what were his chances?  Cause you're not going to tell me his chances were between something 
It's all probabilities, that's what bookies work with and this is what they base their starting odds on.

I feel the chances are always equal, like 50 50 for each team because anything can happen and a team can get victorious regardless of the strength of their squad.

So you have a 50/50 chance of beating Oleksandr Usyk ?

[Satofan44]

Well, its obvious to me that you're the worst student of courtesy in discussion evident by your irrational usage of words and it does me no good to argue with someone who isn't a gambler but continues to pose like one because you've to complete post counts. Every user here responds according to their own judgement and so did I. If you knew the basics and even if you do watch football matches or is able to analyze football events correctly or even gamble at all, your brain would recognize that from the inception of a match, no team has more chances at win except for those they create for themselves within the match together with the events that unfold within the match proceedings.

I have provided you with definitions relating to the core mathematical concepts that are involved here, indisputable knowledge and facts. Now fuck off, back to your worshiping of filthy cows or the pedophile wannabe prophet Muhammad.  
Stompix sadly you have failed here too though, you should have made this thread self-moderated. What happens now mostly is that degenerate retards continue to spread misinformation about this topic, i.e., the problem that you set out to solve is being recreated in the very same thread.

Odds for many tell how high the percentage of winning or losing a player or a team is.

An x5.00 means a very low chance to win. An x1.10 means a very likely to win. But it doesn't always go that way. I once bet x7.00 for a UFC player. A very underdog odds given to her. I won it.
So the chances of winning according to odds don't really tell what is going to happen. It's the oddsmaker's basis using records, but they don't really know the result.
Still, if a player or a team is known for losing most of their matches, this is where we should be careful. The super underdog will likely lose, and it just means the opponent is very strong.

It can give you an indication for relative comparison but it does not tell you the percentages. An x1.5 is more likely to happen than an x5, otherwise bookmakers would go broke. However, that does not tell you the exact probabilities of these events happening.

So you have a 50/50 chance of beating Oleksandr Usyk ?

He didn't even finish high school, you can ignore people like him. They don't know the basic definitions of any of these terms. There has probably never been a single match in history that has a fully balanced 50-50 probabilities of the outcomes. These things don't happen outside of human imagination. Now if there was a smart mind around in this section we could try to investigate what is the probability that any two matches have a 50-50 balanced probability of the outcome. That would be something, although almost nobody would be able understand it. 

[rachael9385]

I think I got not just tired but over the top bored and annoyed with the constant discussion on odds and chances of that happening.

I feel like any explanations that take more than two lines will just be skipped over in every damn topic as not that many are interested in replying but keep repeating the same nonsense, so in this age where a clip more than 20 seconds long is too much for the attention span of some, let's keep it simple!

Chance = how likely something is to happen, it's percentage-wise, 25%, 56%,89%
Odds = how much money you get if it happens 2x, 4x, 10x !

Chance =/=  Odds!

Odds don't represent the chance for something to happen! If you still think so, then be a sweetheart and explain to me the chances of Royer winning!



I think that anyone with a working brain would realize it's impossible for the guy to have different chances of winning the match!  
The guy has the same chances of winning, you get paid more depending on what odds from what bookie you take!!!!

You are right, odds is simply the potential payout of a particular option, so if you have 2 odds on a certain team or athlete it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with chance. The bookmakers use the odds as a way to show the probability of a game to have a certain outcome, lots of people mistake the words chance and probability, technically they are not really the same. So you made a good point there

[Joy_learns_crypto]

I feel the chances are always equal, like 50 50 for each team because anything can happen and a team can get victorious regardless of the strength of their squad. There are chances of the stronger team getting a red card or injuries and it favors the underdogs to win peacefully.

The odds actually determine how much you get which is the odds given to a team multiplied by your stake just like you illustrated. Its clear and I wish this thread settles the misconception.

Teams do not get the best players, best managers, best condition trainers, pay more to have the same chance with team that can not afford that.
The teams my be equal in number but talents and hardwork will be the difference and the team with more of it has a higher chance of winning, anything can happen but chances at the start of the game will be different is their is a big disparity in quality between the team.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Odds reflect the bookmaker's analysis of the situation. They don't represent real world probabilities; in fact, it's impossible to create an objective chance for such a complex event.

One cannot disagree with this; it's true. In fact, this is about how to correctly define a number of terms in probability theory. Probability is the quantitatively expressed likelihood of an event. Odds, however, are always subjective and reflect the bookmaker's opinion. Furthermore, they are needed to balance the money line.
Furthermore, probability cannot always be calculated precisely. For example, the probability of a die rolling a single side can be calculated quite accurately—it's one in six. However, the probability of a particular team winning a match cannot be precisely and objectively calculated, since the final result does not always depend on previous statistics.

[Smartprofit]

I think I got not just tired but over the top bored and annoyed with the constant discussion on odds and chances of that happening.

I feel like any explanations that take more than two lines will just be skipped over in every damn topic as not that many are interested in replying but keep repeating the same nonsense, so in this age where a clip more than 20 seconds long is too much for the attention span of some, let's keep it simple!

Chance = how likely something is to happen, it's percentage-wise, 25%, 56%,89%
Odds = how much money you get if it happens 2x, 4x, 10x !

Chance =/=  Odds!

Odds don't represent the chance for something to happen! If you still think so, then be a sweetheart and explain to me the chances of Royer winning!



I think that anyone with a working brain would realize it's impossible for the guy to have different chances of winning the match!  
The guy has the same chances of winning, you get paid more depending on what odds from what bookie you take!!!!

I agree with you that in gambling, the concept of chance is not the same as the concept of odds on a sporting event. However, in my opinion, these two concepts are interconnected. That is, there is no identity, but there is a correlation... 😌

The likelihood of a large win is usually associated with high risk. And what is risk in gambling? It's a bet on an event with a low probability of occurrence. And the lower the probability of this event, the greater the risk.

It should be noted that the bookmaker independently sets the odds for each specific match, taking into account various considerations. In particular, the bookmaker sets the odds based on maximizing its own profit (margin) – regardless of the match outcome.