Will Satoshi move any Bitcoins in 2025?

[Bialke]

Currently there is a 6% chance that Satoshi will move some Bitcoins in 2025. Seems like its a risk free way to make 6%.

Satoshi Nakamoto moved all his mined BTC in 2013.

He put his wallet DAT in a container and closed it with 100 keys. The keys you can trade as a token on the Etherium through a secret oracle. The key are worth the BTC inside + the share of every BTC fork.

Remember:

BTC is a peer-to-peer (or OTC) network. Oracles for centralized markets fail to detect movements and trading of BTC.

[98789]

Honestly, I don’t think there’s any hidden crypto conspiracy behind it. Prediction markets always attract people willing to gamble big on tiny odds, especially in crypto where narratives spread fast. Satoshi Nakamoto moving coins would be massive news, so some traders just take the long shot. To me it looks more like speculation than someone knowing something others don’t.

[Floxynice]

We are gradually wrapping up 2025 and nothing about that has been heard yet. I don't think anything of such is going to happen this year. If Satoshi wanted to move his bitcoins, it could be done quietly without creating an unnecessary attention that will cause panic in the market. Gamblers bet on anything, this is one of their betting options to make money from.

[Emeraldo]

We are gradually wrapping up 2025 and nothing about that has been heard yet. I don't think anything of such is going to happen this year. If Satoshi wanted to move his bitcoins, it could be done quietly without creating an unnecessary attention that will cause panic in the market. Gamblers bet on anything, this is one of their betting options to make money from.

I don't know why people are thinking about Satoshi selling or moving Bitcoin from his wallet when we are waiting for the price of Bitcoin to appreciate. The concern should not be about Satoshi that had disappeared for several years without anyone knowing who he is or whether he is ready to touch his Bitcoin or not. Since the year is getting to an end, people are busy stocking their homes with Christmas trees, boxes and gifts with the excitement that the year is getting to an end. Those that are holding Bitcoin are waiting for the price to appreciate to increase their excitement.

[Ryu_Ar1]

It's just the same treatment where we end up with too much speculation going on that makes us overly fearful just because of some options that we emphasize as if they could happen.

I personally still feel that now, next year or maybe a few years from now the situation is still the same where bitcoin remains in a similar condition where Satoshi is always a mystery.
If they are eyeing profit and reputation problems and glory then he has long since taken advantage of people's interest in bitcoin but in the end until now this has never happened and Satoshi is still a mystery.

So the possibility with greater confidence for me is that satoshi will continue to be a mystery without the need to tinker with the wallet they have to make bitcoin get a certain sensation and hype.

[Antona]

Honestly, sometimes I have this hunch about Satoshi losing his private keys because he under-estimate his project and thought the value of Bitcoin would not go as far as being worth over 100,000 dollars.

Anyways, if Satoshi managed to way for more than a decade and kept holding, why would he move his coins now when we started to enter a bear market.

I would only expect Satoshi to move his coins (assuming he still has access to it) if the value of Bitcoin reached half million of dollars per coin, some price which is very hard to ignore, even for the creator of the project itself.

If Satoshi had intended to sell his Bitcoin then he could have done so long ago when Bitcoin was worth more than $100. But I think Satoshi had no intention of selling his Bitcoin or even he simply cannot access his private keys for whatever reason we can imagine. As for those who believe that Satoshi is no longer alive. And that could very well be the case. But no one knows for sure. So I personally not convinced that Satoshi would move his Bitcoin when it reached half a million dollars or even more than a million dollars. The current price of Bitcoin is very high compared to its price a few years ago. Human nature would encourage him to sell assets that have risen so high. But in reality he did not move it at all and even not 10% of his holdings. So that makes me assume that Satoshi is indeed unable to move it at all for whatever reason. And I believe that from the very beginning of Bitcoin's creation he never intended to sell his Bitcoin holdings for the sake of Bitcoin's future as part of the financial revolution.

This is my read too the intentional non spend theory is nice, but unlikely, People crack under pressure or curiosity, the complete absence of any movement, even a tiny test transaction strongly suggests the ability was lost very early on, it adds to the myth but also the security

[Alone055]

We are gradually wrapping up 2025 and nothing about that has been heard yet. I don't think anything of such is going to happen this year. If Satoshi wanted to move his bitcoins, it could be done quietly without creating an unnecessary attention that will cause panic in the market. Gamblers bet on anything, this is one of their betting options to make money from.

His moving his coins from the main wallet wouldn't need creating any attention because there are so many people always having an eye on that wallet, and as soon as some activity happens in it, it will become the headline, and this news will spread like a fire in the forest. However, he is not going to do it, because if he had any intentions like that, he would have done it already, but he didn't hide his identity and disappear to come back later and gain attention and fame from Bitcoin's popularity and high value.

Satoshi was a very wise man, and his decision to hide his identity and stay anonymous forever is the reason why Bitcoin is so trusted today. We don't know if he's alive or not, but even if he is, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't think of moving any bitcoins from that wallet because that will create a lot of trouble for him since the whole world will start chasing him, and it could get serious when you know that the whole world and so many countries and their governments are behind you to find out who you are, and possibly harm you as well.

[KiaKia]

We are gradually wrapping up 2025 and nothing about that has been heard yet. I don't think anything of such is going to happen this year. If Satoshi wanted to move his bitcoins, it could be done quietly without creating an unnecessary attention that will cause panic in the market. Gamblers bet on anything, this is one of their betting options to make money from.

His moving his coins from the main wallet wouldn't need creating any attention because there are so many people always having an eye on that wallet, and as soon as some activity happens in it, it will become the headline, and this news will spread like a fire in the forest. However, he is not going to do it, because if he had any intentions like that, he would have done it already, but he didn't hide his identity and disappear to come back later and gain attention and fame from Bitcoin's popularity and high value.

Satoshi was a very wise man, and his decision to hide his identity and stay anonymous forever is the reason why Bitcoin is so trusted today. We don't know if he's alive or not, but even if he is, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't think of moving any bitcoins from that wallet because that will create a lot of trouble for him since the whole world will start chasing him, and it could get serious when you know that the whole world and so many countries and their governments are behind you to find out who you are, and possibly harm you as well.

I can't understand why people are making a big deal out of satoshi's stash, someone created something for the purpose of humans and the only thing that these people can hope for is this same man that sacrificed alot for them wouldn't touch his Bitcoin.

For what reason? So that the price of Bitcoin won't go down, yet other developers are moving their coins selling them on holders and traveling around the world.

Tell me you are greedy without telling me that you are greedy, this is the true color of human nature, satoshi deserves to have a great time too after all the sacrifice, if it's very easy many developers would have repeat the same thing that satoshi did.

[fuguebtc]

I can't understand why people are making a big deal out of satoshi's stash, someone created something for the purpose of humans and the only thing that these people can hope for is this same man that sacrificed alot for them wouldn't touch his Bitcoin.

For what reason? So that the price of Bitcoin won't go down, yet other developers are moving their coins selling them on holders and traveling around the world.

Tell me you are greedy without telling me that you are greedy, this is the true color of human nature, satoshi deserves to have a great time too after all the sacrifice, if it's very easy many developers would have repeat the same thing that satoshi did.

I also find it very difficult to understand why they always want to make huge profit from bitcoin or hope to get rich quickly through it. But they hope that the man who created bitcoin, who gave them opportunities and helped change their lives, will never benefit from what he created. These people are not only greedy but also selfish.

Thats right, Satoshi deserves to enjoy what he has created and the sacrifices he has made. I've said this before, I've always supported and hoped that he would sell his Bitcoin at some point. He deserves it.

[X-ray]

Honestly, I don’t think there’s any hidden crypto conspiracy behind it. Prediction markets always attract people willing to gamble big on tiny odds, especially in crypto where narratives spread fast. Satoshi Nakamoto moving coins would be massive news, so some traders just take the long shot. To me it looks more like speculation than someone knowing something others don’t.

Well, the thing is in prediction market it depends on resolution. In most of prediction market when it comes to prediction about satoshi moving his bitcoin, the resolution will become yes if any satoshi owned labeled address move any bitcoin regardless if it's really satoshi nakamoto or not.

That is why some people are interested in the good odd even though it may seem impossible.

[free-bit.co.in]

Satoshi was a very wise man, and his decision to hide his identity and stay anonymous forever is the reason why Bitcoin is so trusted today. We don't know if he's alive or not, but even if he is, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't think of moving any bitcoins from that wallet because that will create a lot of trouble for him since the whole world will start chasing him, and it could get serious when you know that the whole world and so many countries and their governments are behind you to find out who you are, and possibly harm you as well.

Bitcoin is trusted by many people because of its consensus mechanism and its core decentralized nature. The decision to keep Satoshi's identity secret only made the Bitcoin story more perfect, it was not the key factor in Bitcoin's success today

What makes you fairly certain that he would never consider selling any Bitcoin? What guarantees he only has that one Bitcoin wallet?
Why are many whales from Satoshi's time waking up and selling Bitcoin in 2025, and not before then? The fact that he has never moved or sold Bitcoin does not mean it definitely won't happen in the future.

What the government will do with Satoshi remains a question, but bitcoin is a legitimate global asset, it is not something that harms the world. Therefore, I believe there will be no serious danger to him if he shows up.

[Asuspawer09]

Sounds like a long shot to me, Satoshi never have any latest transactions to exchanges or just cashing out, I mean if that happened it is surely going to be on articles or headlines for sure since it could change something in the Bitcoin space for sure, I dont know what's it's effect but it is surely going to be huge since he hold around 4% of Bitcoin I mean even just knowing that Satoshi is alive or something just huge, he never really reveal anything until now or atleast we dont know anything about him.

This was probably some whales wanting to gamble. It was a huge amount of money, but I guess it was nothing for some whales, just extra funds and have some fun. I wouldn't going to take that as a signal or something.

Where did the 6% chance calculation come from?

[kotajikikox]

Sounds like a long shot to me, Satoshi never have any latest transactions to exchanges or just cashing out, I mean if that happened it is surely going to be on articles or headlines for sure since it could change something in the Bitcoin space for sure, I dont know what's it's effect but it is surely going to be huge since he hold around 4% of Bitcoin I mean even just knowing that Satoshi is alive or something just huge, he never really reveal anything until now or atleast we dont know anything about him.

He could just move a single bitcoin and it would turn the whole world around. It’s not just about bitcoins being moved but rather it will be a sign of life from Satoshi. It will raise questions like what’s his intentions or where was he this whole time? Unfortunately, that’s far from reality.

[Wind_FURY]

OP should probably change the topic to, "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin within 10 years"?

 

Because with the possibility of the "Quantum Threat", Satoshi would have no choice but to start moving his coins to different addresses.

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

OP should probably change the topic to, "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin within 10 years"?

 

Because with the possibility of the "Quantum Threat", Satoshi would have no choice but to start moving his coins to different addresses.

It is less interesting than another question "Who is Satoshi Nakamoto".

If satoshi's coins moved, it can create selling pressure on Bitcoin market but it does not enough to say the user at that time is Satoshi Nakamoto. The wallets of Bitcoin founder can be compromised in the future and someone else - not Satoshi Nakamoto - moves these coins.

Wth time, with more bitcoin mined from blocks, bigger trading volume of Bitcoin market, effects from Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins will become smaller.

[Bastketsrus]

Quite an interesting discussion.
But I strongly believe a large number of people who knows Bitcoin and its History too well don't see this happening anytime soon, but considering the fact that these people are literally betting for a move alone and not a sell makes it a bit interesting. But my question is, how are they going to figure out the particular wallets owned by Satoshi himself?. Are there any particular list of addresses that are available online that this actual prediction is based on?.

I really need to look into how the whole thing came about, and morever, we are less than three months away from 2026, so I can't understand why someone would want to bet on something that doesn't have a certainty.

You’re right. Nobody really knows which wallets belong to Satoshi, it’s all guesses based on old data. That’s why betting on this feels like pure speculation, especially with 2026 so close and no real certainty behind it.

[DeeppRockk]

Quite an interesting discussion.
But I strongly believe a large number of people who knows Bitcoin and its History too well don't see this happening anytime soon, but considering the fact that these people are literally betting for a move alone and not a sell makes it a bit interesting. But my question is, how are they going to figure out the particular wallets owned by Satoshi himself?. Are there any particular list of addresses that are available online that this actual prediction is based on?.

I really need to look into how the whole thing came about, and morever, we are less than three months away from 2026, so I can't understand why someone would want to bet on something that doesn't have a certainty.

You're right. Nobody really knows which wallets belong to Satoshi, it's all guesses based on old data. That's why betting on this feels like pure speculation, especially with 2026 so close and no real certainty behind it.

Bastketsrus hit it right-this is just a guessing game with no real edge. The "Satoshi wallets" we point at are all based on old patterns that might not even matter anymore. If someones betting on this, theyre either fishing for meme clout or hoping for a fluke. Either way, not a smart play.