Skill and luck, which play bigger role in sports betting?

[snipie]

There have been so much argument about gambling being a game of luck and not necessarily skill but is that really true? Sports betting is not entirely based on lucky because there can be expertise in analysis that can give a gambling some form of advantage and ease to win gambling. Am I thinking too much or skill is definitely the major factor in sports betting and not luck?

It is all about odds.
Bookies use many calculations to estimate the risks and to increase their gain margin. Their users use their skills and experience to take profit from them and to lower their possible losses.
There is some users that have barely a knowledge about football, yet they win big, very big, but they are a minority.
To return to my first sentence, using your skills increase your probability to win but the gain is generally lower than those relying on their luck who have at the end lower probability to win.

[Awaklara]

Am I thinking too much or skill is definitely the major factor in sports betting and not luck?

Perhaps we really shouldn't dwell too much on debating this issue. Every form of gambling does involve an element of luck, but in sports betting, we need the knowledge and skills that form the basis for placing our bets. Actually, we could place random bets, but I believe every bettor has their own knowledge related to the chosen sport. Sports betting is different from casino games, which indeed rely on luck.

[Slow death]

Luck is ths major factor that leads to profit when gambling and not skill so don't get it twisted. In sportbet, if you want to depend on your skills alone, you win never win anything because no matter hoa you analyze the gane if luck isn't at your side, it's a waste of time. Ac lot of gamblers would have been multimillionaires assuming sportbet is more of skill like you put it because most gamblers stake on sportbet than any other games.

In sports betting, there's no such thing as luck, only skill. You can test it for yourself:

You have 20 games, 10 of which have odds of @1.10 and the other 10 have odds of @15.00. Don't analyze the 20 games, and then test your luck by betting on the 10 games with odds of @15.00. Other people who only believe in skill will analyze the game and bet on the 10 games with odds of @1.10. In the end, you'll see who will win more games. Then you'll see for yourself if you can actually win more games compared to the people who analyzed the games.

there’s something flawed with this experiment first of all if you want to analyze games you’d know that the lower the odds the more likely it is to happen people will bet on those low odds in order to win easily but the metric of winning more games shouldn’t be basis of whether gambling is skill based or luck based.

There's nothing wrong with this experiment, see what @Sim_card said: "Luck is the major factor that leads to profit when gambling and not skill, so don't get it twisted." What he said is only valid for casino games that depend on luck, I'm talking about games like Pliko, lottery... but in sports betting, only skill matters. So, for him to see for himself, I put this experiment for him to do. He wouldn't need to analyze any game, he would just choose the 10 games with the highest odds and wait for luck. In the end, he would see how many games he could get right.

[Su-asa]

In sports betting specifically skill plays a bigger role than luck but when it comes to casino gambling luck is the main factor behind it all because there's nothing that needs to be studied, everything was designed by the casino for gamblers to lose more. Sports betting is very different, if you are a strategic bettor it would be easier for you to win more than you lose if you follow the principles of risk management and you analyse your options carefully before making your final decision. Although you still need a small percentage of luck because your bets can't always go according to how you predicted it everytime

So long as the are both gamble (sport games or casino games) you need luck on both of them before you can be a winner. But you are right actually because you also need to be strategic in other to win from sport games. However, lets say I'm gambling in casino games, I will have a higher chance of luck before I can successfully win my bet. Casino games needs luck to win which is why a casino better really need to listen to his or her instincts and follow it because our instincts really helps when it comes to luck based activity.

[Glowy]

In my opinion, both are working in synergy. You might be good, have the skills but if you get unfortunate, you sure will get burnt.

If you you don't have the needed skills sometimes you might be lucky and other times you become very miserable as there are time when the skill is what you need for your wins. Neither of both are enough, skill and luck play vital roles in the game.

[atookz]

In my opinion, sports betting isn't solely about luck, although the element of luck is still present and cannot be completely ignored. In sports betting, skill plays a crucial role in data and statistical analysis, such as understanding team performance, player performance, and other information that can influence a match. Understanding odds and betting value can also increase your chances of winning. Meanwhile, luck can also have a short-term impact, such as unexpected events during a match, referee errors, or other factors. Therefore, both skill and luck play a role in sports betting.

[ginsan]

There have been so much argument about gambling being a game of luck and not necessarily skill but is that really true? Sports betting is not entirely based on lucky because there can be expertise in analysis that can give a gambling some form of advantage and ease to win gambling. Am I thinking too much or skill is definitely the major factor in sports betting and not luck?

Luck and skill in gambling are intertwined. Analyzing a team doesn't guarantee victory. It's simply a technical approach to assessing a team with superior players, strategy, coaching, and history. Luck can still contribute to a win, even after careful analysis. For example, an unexpected victory on the field can occur when the team you bet on wins due to a penalty box challenge, after a previous foul was accidentally committed. I believe these types of instances can be considered luck in sports betting.

In any form of betting, luck cannot be eliminated, even in games that rely entirely on skill. Luck will always be present.

[Mame89]

Luck is ths major factor that leads to profit when gambling and not skill so don't get it twisted. In sportbet, if you want to depend on your skills alone, you win never win anything because no matter hoa you analyze the gane if luck isn't at your side, it's a waste of time. Ac lot of gamblers would have been multimillionaires assuming sportbet is more of skill like you put it because most gamblers stake on sportbet than any other games.

I disagree with your statement. I believe skill plays a crucial role in winning when betting on soccer. Luck doesn't happen often, in other words, it's rare, which is why it's called luck. If you don't believe me, try betting every week. For example, you bet on 10 matches using skill and 10 matches without using skill, you're betting randomly, hoping for luck. Then you'll see for yourself how your bets turn out.

So don't get it the wrong way around, bro. When you analyze a match and lose, and then say luck plays a role in sports betting, that's a big mistake. In 10 matches where you bet using skill, the potential for winning is greater; if one or two matches go wrong, that's normal. But when you bet on 10 matches randomly, your potential for winning is slim; you might only get lucky in one or two matches.

[serjent05]

There are people who think gambling in sports has advantage over others but I feel this is a wrong way to think. Sports betting is also based on luck to some extent and even if you are very skilled at predicting, you will not have any edge when the luck turns against you.

At thay time it is nothing in between but a win or a lose.

Hence dont be too confident about sports, you have equal chances of losing or winning that bet.

I certainly agree, at first I think skill based gambling games are all about skills, but the more I get to know how sports betting works, and poker works, the more I am convinced that luck always plays a crucial work on this games.  Just like in the earlier reply, no matter how strong our analysis that A team will win if luck plays the role and reverse the outcome of the match, our skills of analyzing things will become nothing since luck or the unknown factor in the game can always change the outcome of the match.

Obviously in a skill-based game, skill is needed to have an advantage but it can never overturn when luck kick in.

[JeffBrad12]

If it's about sport betting. Your skill might be useful to beat the house, but your luck also played a role. Someone needs to have better knowledge about the sport in order to increase his betting accuracy. while luck may help him when it comes to the tough game like a goal scored by your choice team in the last minute, maybe.

[cryptoaddictchie]

There have been so much argument about gambling being a game of luck and not necessarily skill but is that really true? Sports betting is not entirely based on lucky because there can be expertise in analysis that can give a gambling some form of advantage and ease to win gambling. Am I thinking too much or skill is definitely the major factor in sports betting and not luck?

I totally get what you mean, and you’re not overthinking it at all. Sports betting isnt purely luck but theres definitely skill involved. When you really study the teams, players, stats, and even small details like weather or recent form, you start seeing patterns that casual bettors miss.

Luck still plays a role, of course and no one can predict everything perfectly in any given day of the game but skill and analysis can make a huge difference. It’s like any other field that the more knowledge and discipline you have, the better your chances get.  Id say its a mix of both, but skill definitely tips the balance if you take it seriously. Like in NBA basketball, thats where I bet most often and our local basketball program.

[taufik123]

Skills have to do with the player's ability to set their bet positions, regulate how their emotions can be held and how strategies to win in interactive games and some sports betting.
And in the end, luck will play its role behind the scenes when there is no hope anymore, whether to win or lose it all.

If we talk about luck, I heard a story some time ago from my friend that he got a big jackpot with only a small capital and 5 times bet on slots,
it was luck and the win was then immediately taken by my friend and did not go into gambling anymore.

[martinom]

Based on my little experience in sports betting, I will say that both skill and luck play big roles in winning a bet. If someone does not have the skill to predict games, they will hardly see luck on their side. Sports betting is not like other games, such as casino games, where it fully depends on luck. Sports betting is based on what is happening in real life, and that is why it requires skill and good analysis.

There is always a chance of winning, but due to unknown circumstances, luck ends up playing a very big role in sports betting. It is very possible that someone does a very good analysis, but later what was predicted does not happen, because every player in the team can make mistakes  and some of these mistakes lead to surprising results.For example, when a big team plays against a very small team, it?s clear that the big team has a better chance of winning the game. But in the end, the small team may end up winning the match maybe one big player team make a mistake and recieve red card reduce number of big team.

Try doing several tests on different days (I tried to do it).
Choose 4 teams totally at random, bet on them totally at random, then place a new bet on the same teams thinking about the possible result.

Finally go to check the results, repeat this operation for 3 consecutive weeks 1 time a week, you will see that you will still get totally random results.

It's not mathematics, it's probability and luck.

[imthegreat]

If it's about sport betting. Your skill might be useful to beat the house, but your luck also played a role. Someone needs to have better knowledge about the sport in order to increase his betting accuracy. while luck may help him when it comes to the tough game like a goal scored by your choice team in the last minute, maybe.

Many bettors become gamblers because gambling allows them to think less. If someone, being a bettor, places bets over and over, analyzing sleepless nights, and then finds out they haven't won anything, they'll obviously be very disappointed.
Especially when they hear that slot gamblers press one button, move in, and everything is fine. Especially when one of them wins jackpots. It's no wonder they become gamblers. And it's unlikely the other way around.

[Grace333]

In my opinion, sports betting isn't solely about luck, although the element of luck is still present and cannot be completely ignored. In sports betting, skill plays a crucial role in data and statistical analysis, such as understanding team performance, player performance, and other information that can influence a match. Understanding odds and betting value can also increase your chances of winning. Meanwhile, luck can also have a short-term impact, such as unexpected events during a match, referee errors, or other factors. Therefore, both skill and luck play a role in sports betting.

TBH, I still feel it is more of luck than skill. Yeah, little bit of skill might come in when you are selecting games or analyzing stats, but at the end of the day, no matter how good your analysis is, if luck does not favor you, you are still going to lose that bet..
Betting is not like trading where strategy and risk management can give you an edge, here, even the most sure games can flop for no logical reason.. So for me, luck plays the bigger role..

[boyptc]

If it's about sport betting. Your skill might be useful to beat the house, but your luck also played a role. Someone needs to have better knowledge about the sport in order to increase his betting accuracy. while luck may help him when it comes to the tough game like a goal scored by your choice team in the last minute, maybe.

That's luck indeed if it's the latter.

Scoring or some twists that happens in a game, that's where luck comes in and if it's in basketball. Like having a tough shot that will secure our props and moneyline's or with a spread.

And that's why it depends to what kind of luck and I agree that it plays sort of a role but it's not entirely the whole thing needed for someone to win there.

[Synchronice]

There have been so much argument about gambling being a game of luck and not necessarily skill but is that really true? Sports betting is not entirely based on lucky because there can be expertise in analysis that can give a gambling some form of advantage and ease to win gambling. Am I thinking too much or skill is definitely the major factor in sports betting and not luck?

It's hard to say which one plays the bigger role in sports betting because I've seen football matches where a very well structured team couldn't win because of a bad luck and I've also seen matches where bad structured team could win because of extreme luck.
I would still say that skills and analytical thinking matter the most in sports betting but I want to highlight that this doesn't mean that you'll automatically win sports bet. The weather, the motivation of the team, the well-being of players, where they play the match (home or away), everything plays the role. You never know when the top player of the team gets a serious trauma or a red card but I would still say that skills matter the most. You might have a few unlucky events but not many lucky events without skills.

[Graph001]

If it's about sport betting. Your skill might be useful to beat the house, but your luck also played a role. Someone needs to have better knowledge about the sport in order to increase his betting accuracy. while luck may help him when it comes to the tough game like a goal scored by your choice team in the last minute, maybe.

If you want to bet on sports, your skill will definitely come in handy because if you have a good idea of the team players and their formations, then you will definitely be ahead of the house. But here it should be kept in mind that luck plays a very big role in betting. To be clear, it depends mostly on luck because at any time something unexpected can happen. The team you bet on or the player you bet on based on your observations may not give the expected result in the game.

The main thing here is that your skill can definitely help you win but it cannot ensure your persistence. Because you are betting your money on a place that is not in your control or you cannot make a fair prediction of what can happen here, you can only guess.

[conected]

In my opinion, sports betting isn't solely about luck, although the element of luck is still present and cannot be completely ignored. In sports betting, skill plays a crucial role in data and statistical analysis, such as understanding team performance, player performance, and other information that can influence a match. Understanding odds and betting value can also increase your chances of winning. Meanwhile, luck can also have a short-term impact, such as unexpected events during a match, referee errors, or other factors. Therefore, both skill and luck play a role in sports betting.

TBH, I still feel it is more of luck than skill. Yeah, little bit of skill might come in when you are selecting games or analyzing stats, but at the end of the day, no matter how good your analysis is, if luck does not favor you, you are still going to lose that bet..
Betting is not like trading where strategy and risk management can give you an edge, here, even the most sure games can flop for no logical reason.. So for me, luck plays the bigger role..

Luck may decide immediately and in just a fraction of the time it takes us to bet, but over time, skill determines who stays ahead and who loses everything to impulse. Skilled bettors often rely on data analysis, probability models, and deep knowledge of the sport to minimize risk and identify value bets. The difference lies not in controlling outcomes but in managing uncertainty, pure luck will definitely distract a gambler's mind and don't forget that to differentiate a casual gambler from a skilled gambler, it takes an additional element of skill to maintain

[Fivestar4everMVP]

There have been so much argument about gambling being a game of luck and not necessarily skill but is that really true? Sports betting is not entirely based on lucky because there can be expertise in analysis that can give a gambling some form of advantage and ease to win gambling. Am I thinking too much or skill is definitely the major factor in sports betting and not luck?

Well, it is very easy to assume that skill is the paramount criteria that determines wins when it comes to sports betting, but after I've given your question a critical thinking, I decided that it's actually luck that does have the final say across all gambling games including sports betting.

Why I think luck is the major determinant of who wins in sports betting is because, even after applying all the skills involved with betting, the bettor still need to be lucky to end up winning the bet, else, he or she will still end up losing...
This is why I said that it is always luck that has the final say across all gambling games which includes slot, casino and sports betting games..

And besides, sports betting isnt a skill based game, sports betting is knowledge based, and this is because becoming a sports bettor doesn't require skill, it requires knowledge, which is what you know about the sports, those who require skill are those who play the match like the footballers themselves..