Bitcoin and Michael Saylor fud

[Velemir Sava]

How much MSTR holds and how much it would affect the market?

There must be a lot, I don't know for sure... but what I'm afraid of is the bubble bursting... my assets being thrown into disarray again...

There's been a lot of discussion on social media, especially Twitter.

I'm confused, so I end up monitoring the news.

[UmerIdrees]

How much MSTR holds and how much it would affect the market?

There must be a lot, I don't know for sure... but what I'm afraid of is the bubble bursting... my assets being thrown into disarray again...

There's been a lot of discussion on social media, especially Twitter.

I'm confused, so I end up monitoring the news.

If you are afraid by all this story build up, then you may take the wrong decision to sell your coins, and it will not be good. Most of the people are panicking right now and twitter and other platfroms are to be blamed for as these negative stories are being predicted by so called bitcoin experts. Remember BITCOIN is not because of Micheal Saylor or MSTR and even without them, Bitcoin is here to stay. So stop following twitter and keep clam.

[Dogedegen]

I personally can not count the number of times I've sold off my entire bitcoin in the hope that I will buy back even a higher number of bitcoins at a lower price, but to my greatest disappointment, I end up buying a smaller number of bitcoin for the same price I sold my previous holding because the price went higher, and the more I kept waiting to see if the price will come down so I could buy back, they price kept climbing, at the end, I have no choice but to buy back at a higher price in other not to end up missing out completely.

By some weird reason a lot of people think that timing the market in a near perfect way is easy to do. Like you can just watch some past charts, calculate where it is going to happen again and that is it. Crazy! In reality this is like scoring a medium lottery ticket, very unlikely and in most cases you will fail to do what you intended and actually lose money. Sometimes people lie to themselves by consoling their story with the fact that in USD terms they have not lost money but this is just a bad coping mechanism. The reality is that you have lost a lot of Bitcoin and that is ultimately what matters, not the number in USD.

This is how I came to believe that the best strategy to follow when the price of bitcoin is down is the DCA strategy, simply buy more and add to what you already hold, and if price kept declining, raise money and keep buying, but incase you ran out of cash, then instead of selling in hope to buy back cheaper, simply hold and watch.
Except you need money for something else very serious and selling some bitcoin is the only way to raise that money, then this is absolutely a different thing altogether.

I am glad that you have learned your lesson because many people fail to learn theirs even when this happens several times. Some just quit or blame Bitcoin for their own failures. 

How much MSTR holds and how much it would affect the market?

There must be a lot, I don't know for sure... but what I'm afraid of is the bubble bursting... my assets being thrown into disarray again...

There's been a lot of discussion on social media, especially Twitter.

I'm confused, so I end up monitoring the news.

You are reading into FUD by people who have never had a single class in finance, but they pretend that reading some news and definitions online makes them experts on these matters. Even if Bitcoin drops by another 50%, Strategy would not need to sell. And here you already show that you are under the misinformation spell. If you are afraid of the bubble bursting, you believe that we are in a bubble. I don't think you understand the value proposition of Bitcoin.

[Searing]

I personally can not count the number of times I've sold off my entire bitcoin in the hope that I will buy back even a higher number of bitcoins at a lower price, but to my greatest disappointment, I end up buying a smaller number of bitcoin for the same price I sold my previous holding because the price went higher, and the more I kept waiting to see if the price will come down so I could buy back, they price kept climbing, at the end, I have no choice but to buy back at a higher price in other not to end up missing out completely.

By some weird reason a lot of people think that timing the market in a near perfect way is easy to do. Like you can just watch some past charts, calculate where it is going to happen again and that is it. Crazy! In reality this is like scoring a medium lottery ticket, very unlikely and in most cases you will fail to do what you intended and actually lose money. Sometimes people lie to themselves by consoling their story with the fact that in USD terms they have not lost money but this is just a bad coping mechanism. The reality is that you have lost a lot of Bitcoin and that is ultimately what matters, not the number in USD.

This is how I came to believe that the best strategy to follow when the price of bitcoin is down is the DCA strategy, simply buy more and add to what you already hold, and if price kept declining, raise money and keep buying, but incase you ran out of cash, then instead of selling in hope to buy back cheaper, simply hold and watch.
Except you need money for something else very serious and selling some bitcoin is the only way to raise that money, then this is absolutely a different thing altogether.

I am glad that you have learned your lesson because many people fail to learn theirs even when this happens several times. Some just quit or blame Bitcoin for their own failures. 

How much MSTR holds and how much it would affect the market?

There must be a lot, I don't know for sure... but what I'm afraid of is the bubble bursting... my assets being thrown into disarray again...

There's been a lot of discussion on social media, especially Twitter.

I'm confused, so I end up monitoring the news.

You are reading into FUD by people who have never had a single class in finance, but they pretend that reading some news and definitions online makes them experts on these matters. Even if Bitcoin drops by another 50%, Strategy would not need to sell. And here you already show that you are under the misinformation spell. If you are afraid of the bubble bursting, you believe that we are in a bubble. I don't think you understand the value proposition of Bitcoin.

It may be FUD...but could force a sale of assets in BTC IF they want to be in the running for Index Funds and Funds that need such 'bona fides' in Traditional Finance in

order to buy a companies stock etc, etc.

It is a power play and 'likely' in the short term it 'should' work

however...IMHO the very index funds they plan to label Saylor and Strategy as will simply 'buy' up this excess, either as a 'side fund' made for this purpose under

the valuations that they plan to enforce or other means...so IMHO it will be a transfer of Institutional Wealth in BTC from those traditional institutions who have

weak hand and bail.....thus...it just won't work

Also in that JP Morgan is no where near such limits (due to large traditoinal investments they have) I 'assume' they likely would be the ones stocking up BTC

on such a dump anyway ..it is what I'd do if I was an 'evil' corporation/bank trying to bet BTC at a low cost from HODL'ers as such... traditional investment banks

surely can't get that much BTC w/o massively raising price without such a obvious FUD play.

others thoughts see link

https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/investing/msci-shock-erases-45-of-crypto-treasury-value

but again...anything sold will be bought at whatever price.....I 'assume' it will go to traditonal banks and investors like JP Morgan and the rest as a way to bleed

HODL'er companies like Micro Strategy...hell, it is likely to work in the short term and also likely the traditional firms pushing such rules will be the ones to buy

FUD: Rinse/Wash/Repeat thru hook or crook

[wiss19]

If you are afraid by all this story build up, then you may take the wrong decision to sell your coins, and it will not be good. Most of the people are panicking right now and twitter and other platfroms are to be blamed for as these negative stories are being predicted by so called bitcoin experts. Remember BITCOIN is not because of Micheal Saylor or MSTR and even without them, Bitcoin is here to stay. So stop following twitter and keep clam.

To be fair, it happens all the time, both in bear and bull runs, but during bull runs negative news do not get attention at all since the price is going up, only when it's the bear market we start to see people care about these situations. This is why we need to make sure that it is not that big of a deal, because at the end both ups and downs happens and all these FUD news will continue to exist.

Just look at how many times news talked about bitcoin being "dead", and yet when you zoom out you see how much people made money from it. People became millionaires, even a few got billionaires thanks to bitcoin and holding. So, it is clear we are not really seeing this being a big problem for them, it's a very common situation for it to have negative news.

[Out of mind]

How much MSTR holds and how much it would affect the market?

There must be a lot, I don't know for sure... but what I'm afraid of is the bubble bursting... my assets being thrown into disarray again...

There's been a lot of discussion on social media, especially Twitter.

I'm confused, so I end up monitoring the news.

If you are afraid by all this story build up, then you may take the wrong decision to sell your coins, and it will not be good. Most of the people are panicking right now and twitter and other platfroms are to be blamed for as these negative stories are being predicted by so called bitcoin experts. Remember BITCOIN is not because of Micheal Saylor or MSTR and even without them, Bitcoin is here to stay. So stop following twitter and keep clam.

Those who sell their Bitcoin after seeing news on social media may have a wrong idea. Yes, you are right, we have seen a few days ago that some things were spread on Twitter or some social media due to which some investors were confused. Those who sold in such panic must have made a mistake, moreover, Michael Saylor did not say anything about Bitcoin. Rather, he has clearly stated that he will not sell his Bitcoin, but will hold them and he will continue to buy them continuously. Of course, such Twitter followers should be stopped, many times fraudsters conspire and spread negative news, due to which some investors are in panic.

[Dogedegen]

It may be FUD...but could force a sale of assets in BTC IF they want to be in the running for Index Funds and Funds that need such 'bona fides' in Traditional Finance in

order to buy a companies stock etc, etc.

Force? No, they can't absolutely force him in any way. They could push or persuade him this way but they can't actually force him. The question is more would Saylor actually sell many Bitcoin to have this happen to them the inclusion I mean or would he say no and he's not selling under any circumstance. I am more inclined to believe that he would not do this no matter what they decide. They have a lot of Bitcoin, he could just cool off the purchases and wait this out.

however...IMHO the very index funds they plan to label Saylor and Strategy as will simply 'buy' up this excess, either as a 'side fund' made for this purpose under

the valuations that they plan to enforce or other means...so IMHO it will be a transfer of Institutional Wealth in BTC from those traditional institutions who have

There are many theories about what could happen or what is happening, but they are mostly just theories. People want a nice narrative that explains recent things. Of course if something comes to light that actually proves some of this stuff then it would be different.

HODL'er companies like Micro Strategy...hell, it is likely to work in the short term and also likely the traditional firms pushing such rules will be the ones to buy

FUD: Rinse/Wash/Repeat thru hook or crook

The thing is, it is FUD even if real actions are being undertaken. Why? The main goal of these activities is to cause FUD and manipulate the wider public for their personal gain, therefore it does not matter whether something is real or not it can be FUD in both cases. As long as the primary goal of something is manipulation to sway the public to do what someone wants, it is always FUD.

[crwth]

I'm curious to know up to what point this type of strategy can be applied. If we are going to be in a bear market for a long time, then perhaps those investors in his company would have a hard time separating the two, specifically between bitcoin and his MSTR stocks.

It will definitely be a test of his word, regardless of what happens in the near future.

[₿itcoin]

I reckon that because there are news that some of these smaller digital asset treasuries are beginning to fail causing them to dump their coins and to buyback their stock, there are people who are beginning to speculate that Microstrategy might do something similar.

This is fud! I have mentioned already before that there might only be 2 digital asset treasuries that will survive. Microstrategy and Tom Lee's Bitmine. There will be losses during a bear market, however, they will not dump their coins.

It seems fair to call this criticism FUD but Saylor &  MicroStrategy are not trying to portray themselves as just a passive BTC storage company. According to Saylors recent statement, there is no truth to the rumors of their sale, in fact, they are increasing the volume of Bitcoin. Yeah, Saylor argues that their strategy is now to build a financial business around Bitcoin, they are releasing $ 7.7 billion worth of digital credit products rather than just being passive

So, yes in my opinion this criticism is very common, it is not just buying BTC, it is a full Bitcoin backed financial strategy

[cr1776]

I reckon that because there are news that some of these smaller digital asset treasuries are beginning to fail causing them to dump their coins and to buyback their stock, there are people who are beginning to speculate that Microstrategy might do something similar.

This is fud! I have mentioned already before that there might only be 2 digital asset treasuries that will survive. Microstrategy and Tom Lee's Bitmine. There will be losses during a bear market, however, they will not dump their coins.

And who guarantees this will not happen?  If the Markets turn negative in the next few months or years, it can lead to a sudden change in his plan.  Maybe they did not sell any Bitcoin yet, but this does not mean they are not going to under particular conditions.

Realistically speaking.  How long do you believe Micro Strategy will hold on to their Bitcoin stash for?  At some point they will have to cash out, it will not be only purchases forever.

Why?  If I were to guess, they only time to cash some out would be when bitcoin reaches fiat equilibrium which could easily be 2+ orders of magnitude from here.  Until then I don't see why they will "have to cash out."

[Alex077]

I'm curious to know up to what point this type of strategy can be applied. If we are going to be in a bear market for a long time, then perhaps those investors in his company would have a hard time separating the two, specifically between bitcoin and his MSTR stocks...

Strategy claims that even if Bitcoin drops to $74K, their asset-to-convertible-debt ratio will stay at 5.9× - they call this metric their BTC debt rating.  They also say that even if BTC crashes all the way down to $25K, the rating would still hold at 2.0×.
 https://x.com/Strategy/status/1993402890690740233?s=20 
 Now, the 74,000 scenario I can more or less understand - there’s still some buffer there.
 But at $25,000? Honestly, I find it really hard to believe they’d still maintain a 2 times ratio. Especially considering how much debt they’ve already taken on, plus all the equity issuance. And tracking all of that is pretty much impossible from the outside, since they don’t always disclose the full breakdown of obligations - convertibles, preferreds, straight debt, equity, all the layers.

[john_egbert]

How much MSTR holds and how much it would affect the market?

There must be a lot, I don't know for sure... but what I'm afraid of is the bubble bursting... my assets being thrown into disarray again...

There's been a lot of discussion on social media, especially Twitter.

I'm confused, so I end up monitoring the news.

I tell you - it's around 1/21 of all BTCs out there.

So don't be afraid and chill.

[Dogedegen]

I'm curious to know up to what point this type of strategy can be applied. If we are going to be in a bear market for a long time, then perhaps those investors in his company would have a hard time separating the two, specifically between bitcoin and his MSTR stocks. It will definitely be a test of his word, regardless of what happens in the near future.

You need to do some research before you ask a question like this. Even if investors sold the stock deeply, it would not bankrupt the company. That is the key here. The strategy that was used by Strategy is amazing, he can survive a very long time in a very bad bear market without issues.

Realistically speaking.  How long do you believe Micro Strategy will hold on to their Bitcoin stash for?  At some point they will have to cash out, it will not be only purchases forever.

Why?  If I were to guess, they only time to cash some out would be when bitcoin reaches fiat equilibrium which could easily be 2+ orders of magnitude from here.  Until then I don't see why they will "have to cash out."

People who believe that they will ever have to cash out are short sighted and don't fully understand what Bitcoin is about. If Saylor is a Bitcoin maxi like he tries to portray himself as then he will never do it. If they actually need some fiat to do something in the future where they can't use Bitcoin directly, they would just borrow a little bit using their huge stack of Bitcoin. Why would they sell?

Strategy claims that even if Bitcoin drops to $74K, their asset-to-convertible-debt ratio will stay at 5.9× - they call this metric their BTC debt rating.  They also say that even if BTC crashes all the way down to $25K, the rating would still hold at 2.0×.
 https://x.com/Strategy/status/1993402890690740233?s=20 
 Now, the 74,000 scenario I can more or less understand - there’s still some buffer there.
 But at $25,000? Honestly, I find it really hard to believe they’d still maintain a 2 times ratio. Especially considering how much debt they’ve already taken on, plus all the equity issuance. And tracking all of that is pretty much impossible from the outside, since they don’t always disclose the full breakdown of obligations - convertibles, preferreds, straight debt, equity, all the layers.

Why would you need to believe anything? Go on a simple website like Yahoo Finance and start doing the research yourself. You will quickly come to the conclusion that it is true. They have very little debt compared to their assets, they have a much better ratio than many companies. You guys have had your brains washed out by crypto scammers and influencers on social media since you believe that he could just lie about something like this easily and not get into trouble. Strategy is a huge vehicle with many big names invested in it, he needs to be careful about statements like this otherwise he will get a lot of trouble real fast.

I tell you - it's around 1/21 of all BTCs out there.

So don't be afraid and chill.

Circulating supply? No, he's not at 1/21 yet.

[Son Of Blockchain (SOB)]

How can people get on the 'Bitcoin standard' with interest rates?  The closest thing to this is Join Market.  Am I missing on an opportunity I did not even know about?  Until this happens and the world gets on the 'Standard', if ever, Micro Strategy has to live off something.  More over, if they make enough Profits they can start selling.

This is exactly the most dangerous part of the new collective thinking in my opinion.  Being convinced that Saylor will NEVER sell.  Not even ONE Satoshi.  I did not say he will dump every single Satoshi he has and call it a day.  But it is extremely unrealistic to believe a multi billion company will not cash in their Profits.  Even if it is to make more investments around Bitcoin.  You are setting up your self for a lot of disappointment by believing the BEST scenario is the only one that can go forward.

Further more.  If the economy is almost on its knees as a lot of people recently say, Micro Strategy will not live off oxygen and hope.  There are times when you have to sell a small portion of what you have to save the rest of your plate.

Of course he'll definitely sell, let no one be deceived that he'll hodl forever, atleast he'll take profit at some point when the time is right, my guess is probably when Bitcoin hits $1m, might be wrong but for now he seizing the opportunity of grabbing as much sats as possible to add to his portfolio especially now that the market is down, which is a very wise decision cause I wonder who would have the guts to dump when the market is down asides shrimps with weak hands.
 Anyone who's held their coin for about a circle or beyond that can take some profits and still continue building their portfolio therefore if Saylor has held for that long, I don't think anything stops him from doing so and anyone, maybe those who see him as mentor that would dump their coin maybe cause they discovered Saylor sold but have not held up to a full circle or so would be considered Foolish for doing so.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Of course he'll definitely sell, let no one be deceived that he'll hodl forever, atleast he'll take profit at some point when the time is right, my guess is probably when Bitcoin hits $1m, might be wrong but for now he seizing the opportunity of grabbing as much sats as possible to add to his portfolio especially now that the market is down, which is a very wise decision cause I wonder who would have the guts to dump when the market is down asides shrimps with weak hands.

Of course, this is a way of showing your limited ability to understand that fiat money is garbage, and exchanging assets for garbage is something that people who understand money do not do.

The playbook for the truly wealthy is to have many assets and little fiat currency. What's more, they have debts in fiat currency. In other words, someone with a net worth of $100 million, of which $110 million is in assets minus $10 million owed to the bank.

The thing is, if you have a net worth of $300, you can't understand that.

[john_egbert]

Circulating supply? No, he's not at 1/21 yet.

I said around it, about ~650k of BTC, to be more precise.

[Alpha Marine]

Yeah, I don't think MSTR is going to have to resort to bankruptcy within a matter of months.  Their stock took a massive hit recently, but so did most crypto-related stocks--including some (or probably all) of the ones that jumped on the crypto treasury bandwagon right when prices were soaring.  Saylor didn't start buying bitcoin at $100k, and that's an important point.

Sarlor and MSTR survived the dotcom bubble burst, after their stock plummeted from around $3k, so a situation like this is not new to him. This is nothing compared to that. The reason is that they actually have a series they offer. A service that is not just based on heavy advertisement or PR, but services that have kept them relevant for years. He has said many times that he is not a fund or trust. He doesn't trade the Bitcoin he buys, and he has been buying Bitcoin when the price was about $11k, so he is not going to be  in an unredeemable loss simply because Bitcoin's price went from over $120k $90k

[Dogedegen]

The playbook for the truly wealthy is to have many assets and little fiat currency. What's more, they have debts in fiat currency. In other words, someone with a net worth of $100 million, of which $110 million is in assets minus $10 million owed to the bank.

I would say that is a pretty low debt ratio and that they tend to often even have much higher than that, other than that I completely agree with you.

The thing is, if you have a net worth of $300, you can't understand that.

Yeah, we could say literally 95-99% of the people on earth have no clue about debt and how it can be utilized properly. The most common exposure to debt that the average person has is buying some useless material item like a car or phone on rates or doing something stupid to get yourself in real debt like gambling or drug addiction. I'm purposely excluding sensible debts such as mortgage but those are increasingly rare these days.

Circulating supply? No, he's not at 1/21 yet.

I said around it, about ~650k of BTC, to be more precise.

Around it? Not even close. I don't get where you got these numbers. 650k is not 1/21 of 19,954,975 as reported by Coingecko. 1/21 of the circulating supply is 950,236. He is more closer to 1/30 which is pretty far from 1/21?  \

Sarlor and MSTR survived the dotcom bubble burst, after their stock plummeted from around $3k, so a situation like this is not new to him. This is nothing compared to that. The reason is that they actually have a series they offer. A service that is not just based on heavy advertisement or PR, but services that have kept them relevant for years. He has said many times that he is not a fund or trust. He doesn't trade the Bitcoin he buys, and he has been buying Bitcoin when the price was about $11k, so he is not going to be  in an unredeemable loss simply because Bitcoin's price went from over $120k $90k

Most people who have anything negative to say about Strategy either are those who never achieved anything significant in their lives and are totally motivated by envy, or those who don't even understand 5% of the strategy of Strategy (lol). Even a quick investigation would objectively yield a netural to positive view. A deep analysis of the situation by even someone who does not like Bitcoin would yield a positive outlook if they are objective. Subjective analysis and FUD is generally to be ignored.

[bbc.reporter]

@VirDolorum. Thank you for sharing more fud news that everyone can witness and know. These people who do not like bitcoin will certainly use these articles and scare you!

Also, there will also be articles as this I am sharing that the fud spreaders will purposefully misinterpret to make you afraid. According to some people, this article is Microstrategy's tactic to test the reaction of the community because they might begin selling some of their bitcoin.



Strategy would consider selling Bitcoin only if its stock falls below net asset value and the company loses access to fresh capital, CEO Phong Le said in a recent interview.

Le told the What Bitcoin Did show that if Strategy’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV) were to slip under one and financing options dry up, unloading Bitcoin becomes “mathematically” justified to protect what he calls “Bitcoin yield per share.”

However, he noted that the move would be a last resort, not a policy shift. “I would not want to be the company that sells Bitcoin,” he said, adding that financial discipline has to override emotion when markets turn hostile.

Read in full https://cointelegraph.com/news/strategy-sell-bitcoin-last-resort-mnav-capital

[headingnorth]

The break-even point for MSTR's bitcoin holdings is $74.4K. Drop below that and Strategy's bitcoins are in an unrealized loss.

So if the price of bitcoin falls below $74.4K or even gets close, it could trigger a great deal of fear and panic in the market,
leading to a rapid selloff that could push the price of BTC into an even deeper downward spiral, and could be the start of a black swan event.

For me the risk of that happening is now too great.