The lower the price goes, the less risky to buy Bitcoins

[Rgram]

In general I think those who refused to buy at $125k were not wrong. For many reasons this was a very risky point to buy. The price had been going up for almost 3 years, and historical bull markets were never longer than that.

But is it a good idea to buy now in the 80-90k area?

Let's see: Price can obviously go up and down or run sideways But what counts are the probabilities.

For the following reasons I think that a price about 80-85k could be a decent opportunity:

- Bitcoin's volatility is continuously lowering. It is thus unlikely, if no extreme even (black swan) happens, that we will see another ~80% dip, and even a ~70% dip could be already out of reach. We're already down around 35%. So you have already a decent discount even if the bearish trend continues some months more.

It’s the most to look at with the current market condition of Bitcoin.

The idea has always being buy when the price is going up but, that’s for those seeking immediate profits, mostly short term investors that wants to take profit when it’s pumping and while that is okay,
We also have buy when it dips and price levels within the $80-90k range is a good margin to consider buying at.

Buying Bitcoin at a 35% dump rate would ensure a decent profit when the market does pump. You would get well above 35% so long as you’ve got the patience to wait it out.

[imamusma]

~~

It’s the most to look at with the current market condition of Bitcoin.

The idea has always being buy when the price is going up but, that’s for those seeking immediate profits, mostly short term investors that wants to take profit when it’s pumping and while that is okay,
We also have buy when it dips and price levels within the $80-90k range is a good margin to consider buying at.

Buying Bitcoin at a 35% dump rate would ensure a decent profit when the market does pump. You would get well above 35% so long as you’ve got the patience to wait it out.

Regardless of long term or short term goals, I think we're in the right moment to enter the market. While the market may continue to move sideways for the next few months, I assume Bitcoin price will likely not drop to $60K-$70K again. Essentially, any profit no matter how small, is still a profit, we just need to be a little more patient if we want the desired returns.

[Pandu Geddon]

Regardless of long term or short term goals, I think we're in the right moment to enter the market. While the market may continue to move sideways for the next few months, I assume Bitcoin price will likely not drop to $60K-$70K again. Essentially, any profit no matter how small, is still a profit, we just need to be a little more patient if we want the desired returns.

Entering the market now is certainly not a problem, although some people also believe in waiting for lower prices to get in. The most important thing is to have an investment plan that can be carried out accordingly. If you want big profits, then you must be patient with long-term investments. But if you want to make a profit in the short term, don't get trapped in a sideways market or in a deeper downtrend.

[Mallampue]

Regardless of long term or short term goals, I think we're in the right moment to enter the market. While the market may continue to move sideways for the next few months, I assume Bitcoin price will likely not drop to $60K-$70K again. Essentially, any profit no matter how small, is still a profit, we just need to be a little more patient if we want the desired returns.

Entering the market now is certainly not a problem, although some people also believe in waiting for lower prices to get in. The most important thing is to have an investment plan that can be carried out accordingly. If you want big profits, then you must be patient with long-term investments. But if you want to make a profit in the short term, don't get trapped in a sideways market or in a deeper downtrend.

A plan is not enough, one must execute the plan, don't be like a confused person, I think everyone has an investment plan but they themselves are very confused about what to decide whether to enter now, tomorrow or next week, don't be one of those people with such a prilau.
Large profits in bitcoin must be held in the long run it is the most important condition if looking for large profits there is no other way that is more effective, and speaking of prices we have a view of the lowest price of each other depending on personal analysis, for me the lowest may occur but not past the price of $50k in the future, the current price is also still quite ideal for making purchases regardless of price volatility.

[dezoel]

DCA people are really smart, because it doesn't matter how low it will go, as long as you do DCA you are going to be fine.

However, I also suggest mixing waiting for blood and DCA together. I will not start doing DCA until I see under 50k, which I know will happen during sometime in 2026, and when it goes under 50k, I will start  to buy and wait, and that means when the time comes I am going to triple even quadruple my money on the next bull run. This is why I would say both combined is better.

[Rabata]

It is natural that investors will be more interested in Bitcoin if the price of Bitcoin decreases. It must be noted that buying Bitcoin can be complicated for many people if they are just waiting for the price to decrease because the market will not always behave downward. Those who missed out in 2018 will not have the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at that price no matter how much they wait, and the same situation may be true for those who are just waiting for the price of Bitcoin to decrease. In this situation, those who are doing DCA of Bitcoin will benefit the most. By following DCA, they are buying Bitcoin at a relatively low price, while on the other hand their Bitcoin amount is also increasing. I think Bitcoin will be limited between 80K and 90K for quite some time. That's why it's better to do DCA.

[d5000]

However, I also suggest mixing waiting for blood and DCA together. I will not start doing DCA until I see under 50k, which I know will happen during sometime in 2026, and when it goes under 50k, I will start  to buy and wait, and that means when the time comes I am going to triple even quadruple my money on the next bull run. This is why I would say both combined is better.

That may be a risky gamble, because it doesn't take into account the falling volatility. Of course if you are sure that you will reach your entry price, and you have solid fundamentals for that, then it's a decision one can take.

However, if this assumption is only based on the supposed 4-year cycle, or that "historically Bitcoin has lost at least 70% in bear markets", then it may be perhaps better to re-think it. Historically, Bitcoin has also at least doubled the previous ATH - until 2025 (if the 126k high holds).

No investment advice, but I'd say it may be better to enter already in the high 60s/low 70s at least with a small DCA amount, which is a price I expect to be reached if the 126k high isn't surpassed. If 126k is surpassed, or if we reach 100k soon again and then stay there for several months without falling below that mark, then I'd say the probability that prices substantially lower than 80k are reached is quite low (the lowest I'd expect is then a re-test of the 73-75k area, i.e. the 2024 high and the 2025 low).

In general, I'm a fan of the following idea personally:

- If you think that the price X is currently "fair" and not overvalued (overvalued would mean there was bubblish behaviour before) then you can start your DCA at that price, but still with a low amount per order.
- Then define an interval (e.g. 10 percentage points) where you increase the amount. So for example, if your "fair price" is 90k and you chose 10 percentage points, increase the amount at 81k.
- If it goes lower again by your interval, rinse and repeat, until you reach the full amount you wanted to use for DCA.
- If there are strong fundamental news (ETF approvals, China ban lifting, Lightning becomes very popular or similar) then increase the DCA amount to the maximum even if the price stays the same or increases, as long as there is no bubble or strong spike.

[Lida93]

However, I also suggest mixing waiting for blood and DCA together. I will not start doing DCA until I see under 50k, which I know will happen during sometime in 2026, and when it goes under 50k, I will start  to buy and wait, and that means when the time comes I am going to triple even quadruple my money on the next bull run. This is why I would say both combined is better.

That may be a risky gamble, because it doesn't take into account the falling volatility. Of course if you are sure that you will reach your entry price, and you have solid fundamentals for that, then it's a decision one can take.

A lot of the cases for people that thinks this way about buying bitcoin, they end at not buying eventually and miss the opportunity to buy when the price was at least in a considerable low level. Why do I say this? For instance, waiting for $50k as his entry price, and assuming in the next 4 year cycle (considering the macro economic dynamics) bitcoin price falls to $55k as it lowest before peaking high. While someone is waiting for $50k before buying. What's the tendency they would ever buy again when the price has surge to a price level where they had already hoped on making profit when they buy at $50k.

Some persons forget the volatility of bitcoin which is caused by market supply and demand along with other factors not within oir control, thereby approaching bitcoin in their decision/plans as though it's some traditional assets under a centralized control.

[KeenanEl19]

DCA people are really smart, because it doesn't matter how low it will go, as long as you do DCA you are going to be fine.

However, I also suggest mixing waiting for blood and DCA together. I will not start doing DCA until I see under 50k, which I know will happen during sometime in 2026, and when it goes under 50k, I will start  to buy and wait, and that means when the time comes I am going to triple even quadruple my money on the next bull run. This is why I would say both combined is better.

I myself assume that the price of Bitcoin will not fall to $60,000-$70,000 again, or even to $50,000. But yes, no one knows what will happen, I will just continue to invest using the DCA strategy, which I think is good.

But when you mention combining DCA with waiting, does that mean you're temporarily stopping your Bitcoin investments? Waiting until the price drops below $50,000 might take a long time, so even if that happens, the DCA strategy currently being implemented isn't a bad approach either.

[8rch7]

A lot of the cases for people that thinks this way about buying bitcoin, they end at not buying eventually and miss the opportunity to buy when the price was at least in a considerable low level. Why do I say this? For instance, waiting for $50k as his entry price, and assuming in the next 4 year cycle (considering the macro economic dynamics) bitcoin price falls to $55k as it lowest before peaking high. While someone is waiting for $50k before buying. What's the tendency they would ever buy again when the price has surge to a price level where they had already hoped on making profit when they buy at $50k.

Some persons forget the volatility of bitcoin which is caused by market supply and demand along with other factors not within oir control, thereby approaching bitcoin in their decision/plans as though it's some traditional assets under a centralized control.

In the fact exactly not, I see many people wish bitcoin get lower price most of them want to see will drop to $50k but when that moment come most of them afraid and confuse to buy due expect will down more lower again. Its happening for some one not ready to get risk by investing in bitcoin when greatest moment coming always delay to buy hope have new lower price.

I agree with OP topic when buying bitcoin, the moment lower price has less risky to buy bitcoin but many people afraid if bitcoin huge decreasing and missing the great chance to buy bitcoin at the bottom price. They will buy when bitcoin recovering or have been raise higher price than buy at the lower price.

[Pandorak]

DCA people are really smart, because it doesn't matter how low it will go, as long as you do DCA you are going to be fine.

However, I also suggest mixing waiting for blood and DCA together. I will not start doing DCA until I see under 50k, which I know will happen during sometime in 2026, and when it goes under 50k, I will start  to buy and wait, and that means when the time comes I am going to triple even quadruple my money on the next bull run. This is why I would say both combined is better.

The basic concept of the DCA strategy isn't focused on buying at a specific price, nor does it require waiting for a drop to accumulate Bitcoin. It is just, everyone can freely combine buying strategies as desired, including buying only when the price drops. You can minimize the rest of the risk with good money management, such as using discretionary funds for accumulation. This is very effective, as it prevents investment funds from being combined with real-life funds.

[STT]

Its ironic but true, the lower price is a greater reason for interest but the market generally grows more scared the lower the price is.   The more expensive we get the more excited and interested people become to buy at the higher price, its how humans work somehow.

Price since mid December has been sideways oscillating back and forth and generally that is not a message to buy or sell, its just noise.  I would default to saying its fair to buy on a long term basis, much cheaper then before as said.

[Zigabel]

Conclusion:

- 80k is in my opinion a quite decent buying price. It is not free of risks. But much less risky than buying at >110k was.
- If you don't want to gamble that much, DCA is always a good option too. And if you didn't DCA in the "bubble phase" over 100k, perhaps now is a good moment to begin.

(Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and not investment advice. You may come to different conclusions doing analysis, and that's okay!)

PS: I'm especially interested in different approaches to the calculation of probabilities of bearish and bullish scenarios.

At $80k, i agree that it is a good buying time with lesser risk than with that of even $100k. you get in on profit early enough, immediately their is a bullish move towards the up ward directions, you will already be in profits before it gets to the $100k mark but if you bought at that point, you will mostly find yourself loosing at the initial before you will get to seeing profits. going below the $100k benchmark where you bought at is already keeping you at loos so you will have to wait for the recovery of your losses over the times then you proceed into the making of your profit after it should have gotten passed your $100k buying point.

For those who will want to invest in Bitcoin, obviously, now will be a really good time to start because we never can tell, soon and we will see that the price may later go beyond the price we are seeing now and you will be needing to spend more to get less by that time but if you are DCAing, you will have a better chance and be at advantage the more and so i do advocate for it as often as i can.

[SquallLeonhart]

At $80k, i agree that it is a good buying time with lesser risk than with that of even $100k. you get in on profit early enough, immediately their is a bullish move towards the up ward directions, you will already be in profits before it gets to the $100k mark but if you bought at that point, you will mostly find yourself loosing at the initial before you will get to seeing profits. going below the $100k benchmark where you bought at is already keeping you at loos so you will have to wait for the recovery of your losses over the times then you proceed into the making of your profit after it should have gotten passed your $100k buying point.

For those who will want to invest in Bitcoin, obviously, now will be a really good time to start because we never can tell, soon and we will see that the price may later go beyond the price we are seeing now and you will be needing to spend more to get less by that time but if you are DCAing, you will have a better chance and be at advantage the more and so i do advocate for it as often as i can.

We can't be 100% sure that buying at $80k range will be a good decision. $80k range has emotional sentiments and if we dip below $80k will just trigger panic selling and fear index will keep on rising. This might make the price drop further which can show initial loss if someone enters at $80k range. These people will mostly run out of patience if the price keeps dropping and will eventually liquidate their holdings thinking they might get another opportunity to get in again at a much lower price range.

DCA will be a life saver here. Even though bitcoins touch $80k, I would not suggest anyone to go all in instead they can assign a fixed portion of their total investable capital and can start investing in specific intervals to make sure to do not miss another drop.

[EarnOnVictor]

One of the reasons why investors are being careful is the price of Bitcoin. The coin was too expensive, and it's still expensive, despite the recent massive fall. So, I believe waiting for it to reach farther low will be a smart move. I've always said that buying always doesn't make sense, but buying at the right price, or should I say buying somewhat at the right price is smart enough. This certainly requires our waiting, but it's worth it, as it always means being in profit earlier and the overall gain will be more.

[FanEagle]

Its ironic but true, the lower price is a greater reason for interest but the market generally grows more scared the lower the price is.   The more expensive we get the more excited and interested people become to buy at the higher price, its how humans work somehow.

Price since mid December has been sideways oscillating back and forth and generally that is not a message to buy or sell, its just noise.  I would default to saying its fair to buy on a long term basis, much cheaper then before as said.

Lower price will gain interest from people, but I will not say it makes it less risky. Instead, it makes investments riskier at lower price point because we never know if the price will continue dropping further. People who find investments as get rich quick scheme can never make profits investing at a decreasing price range. They might think they were able to identify a drop but how can we be sure if the drop sustains and the markets reverse.

Bitcoins have shown a bullish trend in 2025 excluding the stagnant condition by November and December of 2025, but the remaining year was quite bullish. After this bullish growth, expecting bearish market is reasonable and I think that this year we might get several buying opportunities but very less profit-making opportunities.

[Lucky_V]

However, if DCA is done at this time, there will be a mixed opportunity if the market goes up, there will be a possibility of profit. Since I plan to buy from the dip, I am not ready to use DCA at this time, but if invest in the DCA method, it will definitely be risk-free.

Personally I will say if there is even a time to actually try out DCA then it is right now when the market is definitely in a mix trend. Everyone has its strategy and the best of strategy still remains sticking to your own convictions. So I won’t say mine is actually the best of strategy but for me with how the market has been lately behaving I think we might be consolidating for a long period of time before we head up or down ( there is no clear indication of direction for now). As such for me I think you can DCA right now to actually balance it up regardless of the direction, if you are truly interested on dips why not actually go for 50% allocated for DCA while the remaining for dip buying when it actually triggers your target.

Reason why I think most people need to actually use DCA is simply because of the market is currently the
Most unpredictable it has ever been, having bearish sentiment this early in a bull run year isn’t a thing so the question arises that what next happens from here? Would we see more dips like the historical bearish periods or go up from here? I think as someone looking to accumulate more bitcoin DCA is the best option for me.

I'm not believing the statement 100% except you're a beginner, I don't think people who have invested when bitcoin was $125k will say it's less riskier now there is dip and even people investing now can not say for sure this is the $88k will be the lowest it can fall.
To every stage it falls it's more risky for the pple that have invested when it was higher and less risk for the people who are investing at the moment .
That's why I recommend DCA strategy as the best strategy for an investor because it will help you have it at any price it falls to or rises to ,the most beautiful thing about DCA is you will buy more with desame amount even as the price drops.
In  conclusion it is more risky for people who have invested heavily as the price of bitcoin drops and less risky for the once who are yet to invest or people who doesn't have buck money to invest at once .

If the reverse of today's market is the case today alot of people will hate them self for not investing when it was $125k assuming bitcoin is let say $190k today

[Zaguru12]

In  conclusion it is more risky for people who have invested heavily as the price of bitcoin drops and less risky for the once who are yet to invest or people who doesn't have buck money to invest at once .

If the reverse of today's market is the case today alot of people will hate them self for not investing when it was $125k assuming bitcoin is let say $190k today

I don’t understand why you actually quote me to simply repost almost something similar that I did because I also suggest using DCA but unlike you I don’t advice anyone truly interested in investing to actually sit out and wait for a particular market price to actually start investing. For me waiting for a certain price before buying or investing is actually a risk on its own. Instead just simply DCA at certain interval most suitable to you.

As for how to beat the risk or panic of price falling after investing is to simply Plan for long term and not plan for short term, only those who have a short term target will be panicking or will be at risk for price falls but for one who actually wants to go long term there is no high risk involved

[justdimin]

Bitcoins have shown a bullish trend in 2025 excluding the stagnant condition by November and December of 2025, but the remaining year was quite bullish. After this bullish growth, expecting bearish market is reasonable and I think that this year we might get several buying opportunities but very less profit-making opportunities.

Yeah, I agree. I feel stable or sideways market is less risky instead of lower price point. In sideways markets, we cannot make huge profits but at least the profits can be stable, and we can cut short our losses. I usually will make some money in sideways markets and will only invest for long term in terms of a descending range.

Plan for long term and not plan for short term, only those who have a short term target will be panicking or will be at risk for price falls

But, what usually investors feel like is, even when you are planning for long term, they what to catch the bottom as much as possible to eliminate the risks for negative market. When concern is about where you get in, I guess that plan on short or long got nothing to do.

[d5000]

Lower price will gain interest from people, but I will not say it makes it less risky.

When price lowers, this is, first of all, an expression of falling interest.

Now often the price indeed reaches a point where many "dip fishers", often convinced Bitcoiners, will re-gain interest and enter the market. In the recent past (2025) this seems to have been the range around 80-85k, or 75-85k if we take into account the March 2025 dip. This looks like people "gain interest" again. But I guess the interest above all among "retailers" and the "general public" is still negative in such phases, as expressed in the "Fear & Greed Index" and similar indicators.

I think the real reason why the price stopped in the 80k area is more "seller exhaustion" than a high number of new buyers entering. Nobody wants to sell at a loss, so people will only sell at a loss when they are panicking. But once the movement to the downside loses steam, people will stop panicking and thus selling. They will wait if things improve.

Eventually you have more buy orders than sell orders at a certain price, and that's when it will revert.

This phenomenon of "seller exhaustion" is one of the factors that make it also less risky to buy at lower prices. It is not always the case. For example, 2022 we saw seller exhaustion only below 20k, or at less than a third of the 2021 ATH. This was however also triggered by a cascade of bad news, from the China ban to Terra/Luna, El Salvador's unsuccessful Bitcoin adoption, and finally FTX.

As a rule of thumb, I think seller exhaustion will always happen if the price is significantly (>20-25%) below the average of the past year, but there are no negative factors impacting the market. In the past big bear markets (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) these negative factors were present (MtGox in 2015, ICO collapse in 2018, COVID in 2020, and the ones I mentioned above in 2022). See also this thread for my "alternative cycle theory".