The lower the price goes, the less risky to buy Bitcoins

[avp2306]

Lower price will gain interest from people, but I will not say it makes it less risky.

When price lowers, this is, first of all, an expression of falling interest.

Now often the price indeed reaches a point where many "dip fishers", often convinced Bitcoiners, will re-gain interest and enter the market. In the recent past (2025) this seems to have been the range around 80-85k, or 75-85k if we take into account the March 2025 dip. This looks like people "gain interest" again. But I guess the interest above all among "retailers" and the "general public" is still negative in such phases, as expressed in the "Fear & Greed Index" and similar indicators.

I think the real reason why the price stopped in the 80k area is more "seller exhaustion" than a high number of new buyers entering. Nobody wants to sell at a loss, so people will only sell at a loss when they are panicking. But once the movement to the downside loses steam, people will stop panicking and thus selling. They will wait if things improve.

Eventually you have more buy orders than sell orders at a certain price, and that's when it will revert.

This phenomenon of "seller exhaustion" is one of the factors that make it also less risky to buy at lower prices. It is not always the case. For example, 2022 we saw seller exhaustion only below 20k, or at less than a third of the 2021 ATH. This was however also triggered by a cascade of bad news, from the China ban to Terra/Luna, El Salvador's unsuccessful Bitcoin adoption, and finally FTX.

As a rule of thumb, I think seller exhaustion will always happen if the price is significantly (>20-25%) below the average of the past year, but there are no negative factors impacting the market. In the past big bear markets (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) these negative factors were present (MtGox in 2015, ICO collapse in 2018, COVID in 2020, and the ones I mentioned above in 2022). See also this thread for my "alternative cycle theory".

I like reading your explanation towards this situation, since it really make sense that $80k price level will not get more buyer but provably it can influence lots of seller to dump their coins. If panic selling starts to lower down, usually the market situation stabilize because there are less people provably will stop to sell their coins at loss.

That's the reason why we see some reversal at this situations. Its great to consider your point about past bear market situation to. Since seller negative sentiments will only occur if there big shocking move that dragged the market at lower price. Dip without any negative news coming out of nowhere is good to take our position, but also if there's a bad news and price fall expect that there would be more decline will came.

[I_Anime]

I like reading your explanation towards this situation, since it really make sense that $80k price level will not get more buyer but provably it can influence lots of seller to dump their coins. If panic selling starts to lower down, usually the market situation stabilize because there are less people provably will stop to sell their coins at loss.

That's the reason why we see some reversal at this situations. Its great to consider your point about past bear market situation to. Since seller negative sentiments will only occur if there big shocking move that dragged the market at lower price. Dip without any negative news coming out of nowhere is good to take our position, but also if there's a bad news and price fall expect that there would be more decline will came.

What really lead to the negative sentiment that end up making a lot of folks panic and start selling , was the manipulation that took place October 6th 2025 . Literally left a massive down spike in market prices, bitcoin literally fell from the price range of $124k—$102k (was a shocking move ) in a blink of an eye , which lead to a lot of panicking in the market letting sellers to take charge , bringing the price down more to $80k (according to d5000 i guess sellers got exhausted) .

What can change the sentiment now is if buyers stepping up their game , because exhausted sellers -> Price stabilizes (price can be moving sideways ) -> less panicking -> more buying -> more demand-> market going up (the  market are being moved with demand (Buyers) and supply (sellers ) ) actually base on my understanding.

[Lida93]

One of the reasons why investors are being careful is the price of Bitcoin. The coin was too expensive, and it's still expensive, despite the recent massive fall. So, I believe waiting for it to reach farther low will be a smart move. I've always said that buying always doesn't make sense, but buying at the right price, or should I say buying somewhat at the right price is smart enough. This certainly requires our waiting, but it's worth it, as it always means being in profit earlier and the overall gain will be more.

Deploying a waiting strategy for price to fall lower before buying could be taken to be a smart decision but what makes some persons like myself not show solidarity to this move is that quite a lot of people who propose on doing this at some point fails to buying bitcoin in any way. Either price ditched them by not going as low as they had expected or the funds were overtaken by events when price finally go lower. So long as it's for a long term holdings it should really matter when to buy.

[EarnOnVictor]

-Snip-

Either price ditched them by not going as low as they had expected or the funds were overtaken by events when price finally go lower.

You have a good point, and no one can deny the fact that it's happening, but this still doesn't change the fact that it's a smart move, it's now left to the person to be adequate for the plan. Think it this way, if someone who could, due to events, spends the money meant for investment, don't you think the probability of the person liquidating the investment prematurely is high? All I can say to this is that the person is not yet ready.

So long as it's for a long term holdings it should really matter when to buy.

Can you please clarify this? It seems you missed a word or two.

[Lida93]

-Snip-

Either price ditched them by not going as low as they had expected or the funds were overtaken by events when price finally go lower.

You have a good point, and no one can deny the fact that it's happening, but this still doesn't change the fact that it's a smart move, it's now left to the person to be adequate for the plan. Think it this way, if someone who could, due to events, spends the money meant for investment, don't you think the probability of the person liquidating the investment prematurely is high? All I can say to this is that the person is not yet ready.

Typically it's all about the individual and how strategically prepared he is any way. Because like you identified it that it's possible that the person can still sell prematurely due to bad planning. This why it's advised that to get a strong investment structure that can stand long we must have some sources of income that can be used to cover our bills and any emergency that might force us to sell prematurely.
 

So long as it's for a long term holdings it should really matter when to buy.

Can you please clarify this? It seems you missed a word or two.

My bad. I actually intended to write "shouldn't", not, should.

[d5000]

What really lead to the negative sentiment that end up making a lot of folks panic and start selling , was the manipulation that took place October 6th 2025 .

I think the "cycle theory" may have been even stronger than the manipulation attempt, at least for the fall from November on. There was also some buyer exhaustion in play for me in the >120k area: as there were no inmediate bullish signals (apart from Saylor's predictions lol) simply interest to buy stalled and that gave bears the opportunity to orchestrate the 100k flash crash, leading to a short term tipping point in sentiment.

What can change the sentiment now is if buyers stepping up their game , because exhausted sellers -> Price stabilizes (price can be moving sideways ) -> less panicking -> more buying -> more demand-> market going up (the  market are being moved with demand (Buyers) and supply (sellers ) ) actually base on my understanding.

Reasonable logic chain, and I also think the current uptrend is cause by a sentiment shift of this kind. It would be a problem for the bulls though if we see buyer exhaustion again at significantly less than $100,000. This could actually again give leeway to the "cycle theory" folks who expect a 70%+ bear market.

And it's already riskier to buy Bitcoin now than it was at 80k. Simply doing the math about plausible scenarios and their probabilities. While the price is clearly uptrending now (at least in the short term), it was also already uptrending from the very moment on it hit the 80k low. Those who bought at 80k could now already sell for a decent profit of 15%, not bad for 2 months.

However, I think that mass psychology makes it likely that many will jump in now with the "confirmed uptrend" at 90-95k, creating a little bit of FOMO which could create new chances to climb above 100k. So it may be still a good moment to buy, but not as good as at 80 k (and if you DCA anyway nothing matters ...)

[laspol65]

I like reading your explanation towards this situation, since it really make sense that $80k price level will not get more buyer but provably it can influence lots of seller to dump their coins. If panic selling starts to lower down, usually the market situation stabilize because there are less people provably will stop to sell their coins at loss.

That's the reason why we see some reversal at this situations. Its great to consider your point about past bear market situation to. Since seller negative sentiments will only occur if there big shocking move that dragged the market at lower price. Dip without any negative news coming out of nowhere is good to take our position, but also if there's a bad news and price fall expect that there would be more decline will came.

What really lead to the negative sentiment that end up making a lot of folks panic and start selling , was the manipulation that took place October 6th 2025 . Literally left a massive down spike in market prices, bitcoin literally fell from the price range of $124k—$102k (was a shocking move ) in a blink of an eye , which lead to a lot of panicking in the market letting sellers to take charge , bringing the price down more to $80k (according to d5000 i guess sellers got exhausted) .

What can change the sentiment now is if buyers stepping up their game , because exhausted sellers -> Price stabilizes (price can be moving sideways ) -> less panicking -> more buying -> more demand-> market going up (the  market are being moved with demand (Buyers) and supply (sellers ) ) actually base on my understanding.

However, if we identify the price of Bitcoin as a cycle, then it is definitely the right time for a correction, but the sellers created so much selling pressure (who are short-term traders) and the market immediately brought it to the point of dumping. In the current situation, the Bitcoin market has started to recover because those who are following the DCA method are buying Bitcoin regularly and many investors in the $80k to $90k range have added their Bitcoin purchases to their long-term holdings.
However, I think we will see the current market above $100k again, which will be a suitable response for those who have sold Bitcoin in the past because the market has created an upward trend again.

[I_Anime]

Reasonable logic chain, and I also think the current uptrend is cause by a sentiment shift of this kind. It would be a problem for the bulls though if we see buyer exhaustion again at significantly less than $100,000. This could actually again give leeway to the "cycle theory" folks who expect a 70%+ bear market.

And it's already riskier to buy Bitcoin now than it was at 80k. Simply doing the math about plausible scenarios and their probabilities. While the price is clearly uptrending now (at least in the short term), it was also already uptrending from the very moment on it hit the 80k low. Those who bought at 80k could now already sell for a decent profit of 15%, not bad for 2 months.

However, I think that mass psychology makes it likely that many will jump in now with the "confirmed uptrend" at 90-95k, creating a little bit of FOMO which could create new chances to climb above 100k. So it may be still a good moment to buy, but not as good as at 80 k Smiley (and if you DCA anyway nothing matters ...)

Base on bitcoin market structure this recent increase in prices that took place  recently might be for short time , bitcoin may dip. But now base on the recent dip I’m sure they would be some greed in the market and fomo will kick in and some folk may buy more which would push the price to $100k , but if sellers come back from their exhaustion in the range of $100k is going to leave a mark ( leading to massive drop in prices) just like you said.

Yes $80k less riskier than the recent price now because of the up movement of prices lately, Many literally thought that $80k range was quite risky for them (which may be true ), that’s why I prefer DCA you wouldn’t have to worry about such all you have to do is to keep accumulating using DCA , I pity those lump-sum folk more . Imagine buying with lump-sum at $100k and  the price endup dumbing real fast , which may encourage the ideas of selling fast due to fear ( and sellers taken over while buyers are exhausted).

[Franctoshi]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

I believe in general yes, but all depends on your time horizon.

Until now, Bitcoin was always in a long term uptrend. This meant basically that every dip and bear market was an opportunity. While a bull market could be always a trap -- if you bought in at the top, waiting for even more returns, you could lose in the short term.

In general I think those who refused to buy at $125k were not wrong. For many reasons this was a very risky point to buy. The price had been going up for almost 3 years, and historical bull markets were never longer than that.

But is it a good idea to buy now in the 80-90k area?

Let's see: Price can obviously go up and down or run sideways But what counts are the probabilities.

For the following reasons I think that a price about 80-85k could be a decent opportunity

If you are using the DCA strategy to accumulate Bitcoin, there's no need to worry about where you bought your Bitcoin, and if you also consider your investment from a long-term investment perspective, because let's say you bought your first Bitcoin at $124k+, and then the price dropped to $80k-$90k, now it's for you to take advantage of the price discount; the only people that will be worried are those that are investing for a short-term investment.

[Stablexcoin]

Deploying a waiting strategy for price to fall lower before buying could be taken to be a smart decision but what makes some persons like myself not show solidarity to this move is that quite a lot of people who propose on doing this at some point fails to buying bitcoin in any way. Either price ditched them by not going as low as they had expected or the funds were overtaken by events when price finally go lower. So long as it's for a long term holdings it should really matter when to buy.

Let those with the experience use the dip strategy, this is the reason newbie investors are told to invest using DCA strategy, they don't need to worry about market down turns or when specifically to buy at the perfect time, for the DCA strategy, every price is important to invest.

Investors who have stayed longer in Bitcoin investment, it would be easier to detect based on sentiments or analysis, a price that is convenient to buy from, may not be exactly the perfect lowest price, but a fair price to buy from.

[bangjoe]

Deploying a waiting strategy for price to fall lower before buying could be taken to be a smart decision but what makes some persons like myself not show solidarity to this move is that quite a lot of people who propose on doing this at some point fails to buying bitcoin in any way. Either price ditched them by not going as low as they had expected or the funds were overtaken by events when price finally go lower. So long as it's for a long term holdings it should really matter when to buy.

Let those with the experience use the dip strategy, this is the reason newbie investors are told to invest using DCA strategy, they don't need to worry about market down turns or when specifically to buy at the perfect time, for the DCA strategy, every price is important to invest.

Investors who have stayed longer in Bitcoin investment, it would be easier to detect based on sentiments or analysis, a price that is convenient to buy from, may not be exactly the perfect lowest price, but a fair price to buy from.

Everyone has their own strategy in accumulating bitcoin so we need to respect it even though we are saying that DCA is a better strategy, but all of this in the final decision depends on their respective preferences in assessing what is best for themselves, not always people who plan to buy bitcoin at low prices always fail to buy, there must be a measure that can be calculated for them worth buying, I like your sentence here, and we cannot force it that you and they have to use DCA in buying bitcoin, not like that dong how to implement it.


Many bitcoin buying strategies we have to respect other people's decisions because the most important thing in investing in bitcoin is to hold in the long run.

My OP has a bitcoin price purchase size from $60k to its limit at $90k, after that stop and wait for momentum again, and the lower the bitcoin price level has decreased the more aggressive the purchase, this is an effort to contain price fluctuations and the potential for large profits in the future.

[STT]

Even with a negative outlook the nearby target of 100k seems viable.  I would outline boundaries by the moving averages of 50 day and 200 day and also with reference to their direction positively or negatively trending.
   I dont have a negative outlook but I'll only really know for the longer term once BTC price action challenges the 200 day average in some way and reacts, thats the biggest clue and the rest is just trading games played while we wait to arrive at that crossroads.

[Awaklara]

Let those with the experience use the dip strategy, this is the reason newbie investors are told to invest using DCA strategy, they don't need to worry about market down turns or when specifically to buy at the perfect time, for the DCA strategy, every price is important to invest.

Investors who have stayed longer in Bitcoin investment, it would be easier to detect based on sentiments or analysis, a price that is convenient to buy from, may not be exactly the perfect lowest price, but a fair price to buy from.

I don’t know about those who consistently do DCA on Bitcoin, whether they continue buying when the price is at its peak. But I usually stop buying and prefer to accumulate capital first and resist buying at times like that. 
I feel more comfortable buying in larger amounts when the price is going down. But the confidence remains the same. Bitcoin’s price will be better in the long term. So, there is no hesitation to buy, whether at the current price or waiting for a dip.

[POPOLUV]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

I believe in general yes, but all depends on your time horizon.

Until now, Bitcoin was always in a long term uptrend. This meant basically that every dip and bear market was an opportunity. While a bull market could be always a trap -- if you bought in at the top, waiting for even more returns, you could lose in the short term.

In general I think those who refused to buy at $125k were not wrong. For many reasons this was a very risky point to buy. The price had been going up for almost 3 years, and historical bull markets were never longer than that.

But is it a good idea to buy now in the 80-90k area?

Let's see: Price can obviously go up and down or run sideways But what counts are the probabilities.

For the following reasons I think that a price about 80-85k could be a decent opportunity

If you are using the DCA strategy to accumulate Bitcoin, there's no need to worry about where you bought your Bitcoin, and if you also consider your investment from a long-term investment perspective, because let's say you bought your first Bitcoin at $124k+, and then the price dropped to $80k-$90k, now it's for you to take advantage of the price discount; the only people that will be worried are those that are investing for a short-term investment.

I totally understand and agree with you because the need of being worried over buying of Bitcoin when the price is low to be come more lesser risk in buying when you are using DCA strategy is not needed and for any reason an investors consider this factor of buying only when Bitcoin price goes low before buying because it is associated with a lesser risk, will regret because on the process of waiting and not buying anytime soon can make he loss some opportunities, i don't say buying when Bitcoin price is low is a bae idea, if you process of buying and accumulating aggressively and it happens that Bitcoin drop in price in the parallel market then you can still maintain your level of buying depending when and how your discretionary income comes but the process of waiting for Bitcoin price to drop in the parallel market before buying is totally a bad idea as a newbie or old investors.

[Grace333]

Deploying a waiting strategy for price to fall lower before buying could be taken to be a smart decision but what makes some persons like myself not show solidarity to this move is that quite a lot of people who propose on doing this at some point fails to buying bitcoin in any way. Either price ditched them by not going as low as they had expected or the funds were overtaken by events when price finally go lower. So long as it's for a long term holdings it should really matter when to buy.

Let those with the experience use the dip strategy, this is the reason newbie investors are told to invest using DCA strategy, they don't need to worry about market down turns or when specifically to buy at the perfect time, for the DCA strategy, every price is important to invest.

Investors who have stayed longer in Bitcoin investment, it would be easier to detect based on sentiments or analysis, a price that is convenient to buy from, may not be exactly the perfect lowest price, but a fair price to buy from.

Many newbies use to put too much pressure in themselves trying to buy from a good price of perfect dip, and that most times just leads to confusion or them missing chances. With DCA, you do not even have to overthink anything,  just keep buying it little by little.

For people that have been in Bitcoin for a long time, it is different. Experience use to teach you how the market behaves, how sentiment change, and when prices are just reasonable enough to enter. It might not be the lowest price, but it is a good price.

[Perfectbaby]

To honest buying every dip through DCA is always the best approach to follow the market because it will give you a kind of stability peace of minds because you would definitely ends up accumulating more of Bitcoin before the market changes directly through start become very greenish. As an investor or traders when's you looked at the market and it doesn't give you the level which you want to start doing your investment could be a better approach. Those that doesn't venture the market knows what they are as they could get trapped at point where the price will move below entry points and could caused serious loses, thus they can as well hold while the market bounces back above their entry points only they could recover what they had lose.

[Promocodeudo]

To honest buying every dip through DCA is always the best approach to follow the market because it will give you a kind of stability peace of minds because you would definitely ends up accumulating more of Bitcoin before the market changes directly through start become very greenish. As an investor or traders when's you looked at the market and it doesn't give you the level which you want to start doing your investment could be a better approach. Those that doesn't venture the market knows what they are as they could get trapped at point where the price will move below entry points and could caused serious loses, thus they can as well hold while the market bounces back above their entry points only they could recover what they had lose.

Buying Bitcoin with DCA strategy is the best I gree but let's get this point straight, DCA method allows a Bitcoiner to buy at every given time not only the dip alone, and this method is refered the most friendly and easy method of accumulating Bitcoin because, you can buy with your discreationary income consistently, you buy with this method during the price upsurge and the dip, infact it is the most recommended method of buying Bitcoin especially for beginners, reason being that some newbies are good at presentating some excuses that can hinder the from investing in Bitcoin but once they are informed about this method, it is assumed that they are not supposed to have any excuse again rather than investing, as a long-term investor I don't think we should actually look the price or wait to buy during the dip because we know how that Bitcoin has shown consistency overtime, as for a what traders does, am not a trader, so I won't want discuss much on that.

[Jostern]

I don’t think that reference is true, because whichever way you buy bitcoin either bypass the high price of bitcoin or you buy when the price is low, the risk involved in bitcoin would still be the same which is a very different way of approaching bitcoin, the best way of approaching bitcoin is just holding for a long term, which is why it’s better to focus more attention on just buying bitcoin no matter what the price of bitcoin would be, for someone who wants to make progress in bitcoin wouldn’t really focus on buying disadvantages in bitcoin, but mostly the advantages in bitcoin is more important.

Buying bitcoin through the DCA strategy is also a better way of trying to sustain our bitcoin investment because whichever amount of money that we have we would just buy bitcoin immediately through DCA which is very sustainable.

[OgNasty]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

I don’t believe this is true. I witnessed the opposite. Bitcoin at $2 was a shit show of hot potato where nobody wanted to get caught with BTC overnight for fear of a crash. The massive liquidity in the market and large scale adoption has strengthened Bitcoin’s case immensely. The more Bitcoin’s price falls, the more likely it is to crash. We are headed towards too big to fail territory. A step back would be catastrophic, not a blessing.

[Tmoonz]

I don’t think that reference is true, because whichever way you buy bitcoin either bypass the high price of bitcoin or you buy when the price is low, the risk involved in bitcoin would still be the same which is a very different way of approaching bitcoin, the best way of approaching bitcoin is just holding for a long term, which is why it’s better to focus more attention on just buying bitcoin no matter what the price of bitcoin would be, for someone who wants to make progress in bitcoin wouldn’t really focus on buying disadvantages in bitcoin, but mostly the advantages in bitcoin is more important.

Buying bitcoin through the DCA strategy is also a better way of trying to sustain our bitcoin investment because whichever amount of money that we have we would just buy bitcoin immediately through DCA which is very sustainable.

You have made lot of reasonable points, honestly I have been asking myself that how does lowering price of Bitcoin becomes less risky when it comes to buying or accumulating Bitcoin for a long term purposes, in my observations I think that most people prefer buying Bitcoin whenever they see Bitcoin on the risen and not when it is lowering but for am investor who has a long term plans for their Bitcoin investment they don't give any special treatment regarding to buying Bitcoin either when it is lowering or on the risen all what they care about is to buy and increase their holding.