Why this kind of unreasonable prediction?

[Pi-network314159]

Actually the crypto space is free for anyone to make their prediction or speculation, according to how many of us predicted Bitcoin earlier this Year, we thought that it may have hit $150k by now and probably that same $200k but perhaps it didn't work out as predicted or as planned now it looks like he was the only one who predicted Bitcoin to hit $200k by March 2026. Many of us did likewise, if you che the speculation board from the thread created earlier this year, many even predicated Bitcoin to hit $250k base on a random prediction but however today Bitcoin fell from $126k to even below $100k so I don't blame home because it is not a crime to predict how Bitcoin will be. You can only call his idea as unreasonable because the price didn't meet up his prediction but however if it did it would have become a reasonable idea. Just let the guy be since it's not a crime to speculate.

[Oshosondy]

I don't know why you think his prediction is unreasonable because $200k is not a difficult price to hit if the market experiences great inflow from the Federal reserve system. We have predicted some actions that can prompt bitcoin price to skyrocket such as Spot bitcoins ETF's approval and US post-election effects, they all impacted on the price so an implementation of Reserve Management Purchases can likely cause the price of bitcoin to experience an uptrend in the next 3 months.

You know that I like offering people to make bet with me, I think this will be a good one. I will like both of us to make a bet about it. If bitcoin gets to $200000 by March 2025, I will pay you $50, but if bitcoin did not get to $200000 by 2026, you will pay me half of what I supposed to pay you which is $25. Will you like the offer?

[pooya87]

It is unreasonable.
If this particular news he is using as his reason were to affect the price like this (a massive 2x increase) it should have already started showing some positive effects. Which it obviously is not considering we already had a drop and price is still struggling to break the new resistances at $100k and even $90k.

Not to mention that historically, 2x rises in such a short period have only happened at the end of the bull run to reach a bubble. For example in 2017 we went from below $1k to $10k in an entire year and then in matter of weeks price went from $10k to $20k to set the bubble.

Also that bubble was the reason for the drop. What this dude is explaining here doesn't even make sense. He is basically saying that "bitcoin is a pump and dump shitcoin"!!! when he says in 2 months price is going to go up 2x and dump back down losing nearly half of its new price.

If we enter a bull market, it will take much longer to set a new ATH, specially one that is more than 2x higher (eg. reaching $240) and then price will either continue rising as the bull trend gets stronger or we will see a small correction to something like $180-$190k not fall all the way down to $120k! Just like how we reached $120k and then saw the correction and panic sell to $90-$80k.

[Zadicar]

Actually the crypto space is free for anyone to make their prediction or speculation, according to how many of us predicted Bitcoin earlier this Year, we thought that it may have hit $150k by now and probably that same $200k but perhaps it didn't work out as predicted or as planned now it looks like he was the only one who predicted Bitcoin to hit $200k by March 2026. Many of us did likewise, if you che the speculation board from the thread created earlier this year, many even predicated Bitcoin to hit $250k base on a random prediction but however today Bitcoin fell from $126k to even below $100k so I don't blame home because it is not a crime to predict how Bitcoin will be. You can only call his idea as unreasonable because the price didn't meet up his prediction but however if it did it would have become a reasonable idea. Just let the guy be since it's not a crime to speculate.

Speculation has always been part of the crypto space and it is not something that needs permission or validation. Predictions reflect sentiment hope and interpretation of data at a specific moment. Earlier this year many people genuinely believed Bitcoin would reach 150k or even 200k based on momentum and narrative. Others went further and talked about 250k without much grounding. At the time those ideas felt reasonable because price action supported confidence. When conditions changed those same predictions started to look unrealistic. That shift does not turn speculation into wrongdoing.

Calling someone unreasonable only because price failed to reach their target misses the point of speculation itself. Markets do not move to satisfy forecasts. If Bitcoin had continued upward those same predictions would now be praised as vision instead of dismissed as fantasy. Hindsight always feels smarter than foresight. Speculation is not about being right every time. It is about expressing an outlook based on current understanding. Being wrong later does not invalidate the right to speak earlier.

[Majestic-milf]

You know that I like offering people to make bet with me, I think this will be a good one. I will like both of us to make a bet about it. If bitcoin gets to $200000 by March 2025, I will pay you $50, but if bitcoin did not get to $200000 by 2026, you will pay me half of what I supposed to pay you which is $25. Will you like the offer?

I know I'm optimistic but saying that Bitcoin would surge upwards to $200k is a big leap and stretch of my faith . At the moment, there's so much uncertainty that we'd even see price closing the $100k mark before the year ends, much less $200k in the next three months so I wouldn't bother betting, thank you very much.

Also, you meant to say March 2026. Please don't drag us back

[Taskford]

It is unreasonable.
If this particular news he is using as his reason were to affect the price like this (a massive 2x increase) it should have already started showing some positive effects. Which it obviously is not considering we already had a drop and price is still struggling to break the new resistances at $100k and even $90k.

Not to mention that historically, 2x rises in such a short period have only happened at the end of the bull run to reach a bubble. For example in 2017 we went from below $1k to $10k in an entire year and then in matter of weeks price went from $10k to $20k to set the bubble.

Also that bubble was the reason for the drop. What this dude is explaining here doesn't even make sense. He is basically saying that "bitcoin is a pump and dump shitcoin"!!! when he says in 2 months price is going to go up 2x and dump back down losing nearly half of its new price.

If we enter a bull market, it will take much longer to set a new ATH, specially one that is more than 2x higher (eg. reaching $240) and then price will either continue rising as the bull trend gets stronger or we will see a small correction to something like $180-$190k not fall all the way down to $120k! Just like how we reached $120k and then saw the correction and panic sell to $90-$80k.

I don't know what is the basis on his prediction and why he come up on that figure, but thinking about Bitcoin will double its value in just 2 to 3 months sounds crazy. Also I don't really think that's how fast Bitcoin could able to hit that figure. If we will buy his idea we provably not see Bitcoin struggle to reach at $90k - $100k level.

What I think but hopefully it will not happen is we might gonna see a same like 2017 cycle on which Bitcoin price surge high and suddenly it blow off and drop so bad in 2018.

If they try to look at genuine bullish market scenario it will take time to build momentum, also it provably require many months of accumulation to have a strong movement. Bitcoin is not a pump and dump scheme just like what he tries to project. So better not buy those opinions they released since its like they are trying to mislead people and maybe try to disappoint people towards investing on Bitcoin.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Right below that is another article from a month ago where Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would go near $80k. It did reach that level briefly, which means his predictions are sometimes fairly accurate, but he is just making an educated guess like anybody else.

$200k is being too optimistic, but the Federal Reserve increasing their money printing tends to be favorable for the price of Bitcoin and other speculative assets.

[Die_empty]

It is unreasonable.
If this particular news he is using as his reason were to affect the price like this (a massive 2x increase) it should have already started showing some positive effects. Which it obviously is not considering we already had a drop and price is still struggling to break the new resistances at $100k and even $90k.

This is not the first time he has made predictions out on his reasoning without any valid analysis to back it up. In June 2025, Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250K in six months. The year is running out and it has not happened.   

Some people use these high predictions to gain attention, since this is the kind of news most people want to hear. His prediction is possible, but it's not feasible.   

[Marykeller]

You think it is an unreasonable prediction. There are people out there who will buy into what Arthur Hayes predicted about Bitcoin reaching $200k in March. They won't be thinking the prediction is unreasonable, as the way we are thinking it to be currently, because of how we have studied the market, that after the bull run, what comes next is the bear market(that's what happens next from next year).

I know that there will be investors out there who will be investing heavily because of Arthur Hayes prediction towards March. Don't be surprised by that because there are people who think influential people do make the right predictions about Bitcoin

[laspol65]

There are millionaire investors who make various kinds of predictions, although all these predictions are unreasonable for the time period they hold. But in the future, the price of Bitcoin will cross $200,000, but there is no specific time, because we can certainly guess and according to the cycle, the price of Bitcoin may be corrected in 2026. And the price of Bitcoin may also increase in 2026, but from their predictions, we can certainly get confidence that the price of Bitcoin will increase in the future. However, I think it is unreasonable that he said that the price of Bitcoin will be $200,000 by March.

[barbara44]

Yeap I agree, this is definitely not going to happen. These type of people just like to say grand things so that they would be news, saying "it will hover around 90k or maybe drop to a bit under 80k" is not a news, and that is why it is not going to be getting him more famous or talked about.

These type of people love being talked about so they make up stuff that is obviously unrealistic.

In twitter world that is called "rage bait", saying something totally wrong to get the raged replies to it for engagement. We like or not, in my opinion such type of people are literally doing the PR work for bitcoin ecosystem and definitely not for free of cost still no one needs to pay them from the bitcoin space.

[Bd officer]

Actually, no one can make accurate predictions about Bitcoin. This is not the first time, many predictions have been made in the past but they were not accurate. In the past, I have also seen stories of betting on predictions, but the person who made the prediction lost. Now, no one can say what will happen in 2026, no one knows whether 2026 will be bullish or bearish. But according to past history, the price of Bitcoin may fall in 2026, so this prediction seems unreasonable to me. However, one should not invest or trade based on such predictions, if one invests in Bitcoin, one should plan for the long term.

[sunsilk]

Unreasonable or not, a prediction is a prediction and that's a guess of his. We can be against with it and not put any hope in it.

But we can also think of it of what if it happens and the dip is like that. I guess that we're all celebratory when that happens if $124k is the dip and $200k is the peak for next year.

Well, it's really hard to believe into high predictions until we see that happen. As for me, I think that price is possible by maybe on the next cycle.

[LogitechMouse]

---
To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

Any famous personality can share their own prediction, put some reasons after doing it and they will be posted by these famous online news platform just like Yahoo, and even Coindesk and others.

To us that are in the crypto for a long time, we know that this is impossible to happen especially if there's no new money being injected into the market. Yes, he can share his reasons as to why, and he's a respectable personality in the crypto space no doubt about that, but his predictions are very far from it being a reality. Quantitative easing will happen, but the question is "WHEN?" Tightening has already stopped yes, but when will the FED start printing.

TBH, this prediction is somewhat manipulative especially for those newbies because we know that newbies tend to believe easily compared to us that are in the crypto space for quite some time. If newbies see this prediction, they might think that "X made his prediction, and I need to buy it before it reaches that price so that I will not be left by the train." For us though, we know that this is unreasonable, and almost impossible to happen especially when there's no money going in. Overall, we can predict and have the same chances as him. It's just that, he's more popular than us that's why news outlet features his prediction.

[Awaklara]

If those people with followers only made predictions that Bitcoin would reach $200k, without adding that it would happen in March, I think more people would agree. But a three-month target to reach $200k wouldn't make sense given Bitcoin's current market situation. The price can't instantly jump as we predict. We need to consider the possible factors that could influence market movements in that short period. Are people like that playing with their followers?

[letteredhub]

The beauty of Bitcoin price speculations is that everybody is entitled to their own opinions and understandings but nobody controls the market on a solid bases. Maybe Arthur Hayes, plans to accumulate Bitcoin massively in March, next year which might cause an upward trend but the question is for how long and will it affect price to skyrocket to $200k? He's probably being emotional for obvious reasons like most of us who expected November and December to be very bullish, we thought that we would have seen ATH between $150k and $200k by now. From the look of things presently I'm not bullish that Bitcoin can reach $200k by March next year but let us watch and see.

The speculation of bitcoin price is open to all that have interest in the market be it whether a positive or negative interest but when making speculation it's should be that it's not oversimplified when paired with current bitcoin price in the window given. Even if Arthur Hayes plans on accumulation more bitcoin stash he alone can't catapult the price of bitcoin to $200k because at the time he may be buying some investors somewhere might be offloading their bag.

[khiholangkang]

A billionaire usually says all of them even though they provide data that he thinks is confident in the predicted price, although for me this makes no sense we cannot judge them on the basis of this prediction, it could be that what Arthur said was wrong.

My prediction - it won't happen, especially with only 3 months left, but who knows if there is a sudden surge where buying pressure increases this might happen, it's just that for me it's a bit impossible to happen, some people believe bitcoin can go up at any time.

Obviously it doesn't make sense even though he is a billionaire, but sometimes billionaires are like that in this world, they think crazy, so we have to make sense of it, our way of thinking and his way of thinking are different, there are many boundaries that we cannot penetrate so don't have excessive expectations without a strong basis that we can be sure of, I also think the same as you that it is impossible to happen in March next year because the $200k figure is really illogical, Bitcoin needs to increase 100% more than the current price to achieve it and it could be said that double the capitalization from now.

[Cryptoprincess101]

I don't know why you think his prediction is unreasonable because $200k is not a difficult price to hit if the market experiences great inflow from the Federal reserve system. We have predicted some actions that can prompt bitcoin price to skyrocket such as Spot bitcoins ETF's approval and US post-election effects, they all impacted on the price so an implementation of Reserve Management Purchases can likely cause the price of bitcoin to experience an uptrend in the next 3 months.

You know that I like offering people to make bet with me, I think this will be a good one. I will like both of us to make a bet about it. If bitcoin gets to $200000 by March 2025, I will pay you $50, but if bitcoin did not get to $200000 by 2026, you will pay me half of what I supposed to pay you which is $25. Will you like the offer?

Anyways, since it's about a prediction from Arthur Hayes, i can say that it may not be possible. Maybe he should have just made a speculation instead of a prediction. If he had made a prediction about the price reaching a new ATH in the next 3 months it would have been probable. But we shouldn't also dispute a possibility of the price reaching $200k in the first quarter of 2026 even if such milestone may not be influenced by only RMS, bitcoin is volatile and at such it can reach a milestone that we didn't see coming within a short period of time. Nevertheless, i hereby decline your offer for a bet.

[The Cryptovator]

All day you may find a lot of predictions; whom are you going to trust? A few people say Bitcoin will dump more, and a few people predict breaking ATH. So all of them predict from their own perspective; it's not confirmed. Anything could happen overnight in the crypto industry; I am a witness to the Luna crash. So if something like this happens, then Bitcoin would go to $200K within three months, as he predicts. Otherwise, from my perspective, Bitcoin has to even struggle to break ATH within three months.

It's quite longer Bitcoin keeps dumping from the ATH, and there is no such event that Bitcoin would double within these three months. We have to accept the reality; we know Bitcoin will give a better return anytime soon but need to be realistic. Everyone thinks in a different way from the different perspective of whether someone is a billionaire or poor. So from my view he is wrong at the moment, but for someone else he would be right.

[Adbitco]

At first when I comes across this topic what just entered into my mind is that, he has managed to accumulate enough bitcoin and wanting to use his influence to stir up the market a bit to see if there could be more newer investor who could just use because of his news or messages to make people rush to start making investment.
As a matter of facts, this can't happen so shortly as the time frame is too closer, if it was around somewhere like June, July next year which is about 6-7 months or partly half of the year then this could have sounds so realistically than just saying for 90 days, which is too closer and the possibility extremely low.