Betting on events far away in the future

[Hispo]

I think my biggest personal problem with these kinds of bets is how so many thing could potentially happen between the time I decide to place my bet and the moment when the bet itself reach resolution... These bets would be only worth it if one puts a significant amount of money into it, so in case of getting the prediction right, one gets at least double of such money, or even more.
The time for an effective resolution of the bet is supposed to be proportional to the amount of money at stake, otherwise it does not make sense to use a wager of 5$ for a 10 year resolution waiting.
Anyways, it is just my personal opinion on this matter... It is better just to stick to normal political bets and sport betting.

[DrBeer]

If I was the designer/manager of such a basket stablecoin, I'd try to implement it without any fiat collateral currencies. While the assets (oil, soybeans, gold) may have a fiat price, that doesn't link it to inflation, because it's the asset's demand/supply which determines the price.

In the current situation, fiat currency is almost guaranteed to lose value over a period of years. And the “product” value will always change in direct proportion to inflation. The only problem is securing real assets for this token, which is still completely virtual. Most likely, this can be achieved through other tokens that are pegged to a barrel of oil, an ounce of gold, or other assets.

Such a token will be interesting not only for betting but also as a real mechanism for preserving value, and possibly even for guaranteed passive income! It seems like we can open up a new interesting topic!

[Orpichukwu]

10 years is not just 10 days. If it's something to happen in the next 2-3 years, maybe I can consider betting on such an event, but then again, aside from the inflation problem raised by Ninja, another thing to consider is will the platform which you stake that bet on still be there till the bet settlement period? I also don't wish anyone death, but 10 years is a lot of time; many things happen. Even if the bet enters on the person's favour, some of the claim will be done by relatives or will forever be left unclaimed.

[d5000]

Such a token will be interesting not only for betting but also as a real mechanism for preserving value, and possibly even for guaranteed passive income! It seems like we can open up a new interesting topic!

A short web search yielded that there are already some protocols which can be used to build such kind of RWA basket currencies. Closest I found is perhaps the Reserve Protocol. Their technique is called DTFs ("Decentralized Token Folios"). They have even a token called US3 which is like an USD with passive income. I am however a bit skeptic to integrate an additional middleman for the reserve currency, Reserve Protocol seems to be a quite centralized entity. But it could be used to model the smart contracts to base such a currency on.

Some years (!) ago I already opened a thread about a similar topic (basket stablecoins) but I think this thread is a bit too old now and it was also focused on a single platform which is irrelevant nowadays. Maybe I'll open a new one as the topic is indeed interesting not only for betting. The challenge is, of course, how to cope with emittent failure (bankrupcies, exit scams ...).