Betting on events far away in the future

[d5000]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

[TryNinja]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

[GreatArkansas]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

I can understand betting on something like "winner of 2026 UEFA" with crazy odds for a team that is still off radar... but not something that is only going to resolve in 2, 3, 5, or 10 years. You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

Yeah, this is more realistic than more than a year or more. There is also a chance the gambling platform you are using may close if that kinda too long or sometimes maybe you will forgot you placed a bets on that platform and on those matches.
So for me, this is not ideal, and I don't see that there's any matches in gambling that have like this, like more than 1 year?

[d5000]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

Fair point if using fiat. The platforms could however offer placing bets in BTC ...

You don't even know if the website you're betting on is going to be around by that time.

I expected this objection a bit. But the platforms, if they want to be serious about such a betting category, could offer an "alternative resolution path" - if for any event it becomes impossible to finish the bet until the point in time which was chosen as the deadline, e.g. because the platform is closing, there could be a resolution based on a previously agreed rules.

For example for the question: "Will there be humans on Mars" there could be rules like:

- if there was already an expedition for a manned Mars Orbiter and the deadline for the final manned expedition to Mars surface is not in danger, resolve to "True".
- if there is a concrete realistic plan of NASA/ESA/China etc. and concrete steps to make it a reality (e.g. already a spaceship in development with prototypes), but the financing is unsure, resolve to "50:50"
- if there is nothing at all and only very weak declarations, resolve to "False" or to something like 1:10.

[Darker45]

~snip~

Yeah, this is more realistic than more than a year or more. There is also a chance the gambling platform you are using may close if that kinda too long or sometimes maybe you will forgot you placed a bets on that platform and on those matches.
So for me, this is not ideal, and I don't see that there's any matches in gambling that have like this, like more than 1 year?

Not necessarily gambling on matches. In the prediction market, which is becoming a thing in gambling recently, it could be anything. And there are markets, like the examples given by OP, that could only be relevant if the timeframe is long.

Before the rise of Polymarket, I remember I got interested making predictions on Futuur. Some bets could be settled years later. I lost some, won some, and has at least one that's been hanging in limbo for several years already.

There was a question whether Agent 007 would be played by a woman after "No Time To Die". That market was released back in 2020, even before the movie itself was released. Today, it remains unsettled.

The good thing is that, like in Polymarket, you can sell your share anytime, either with a profit or loss. So, you don't have to wait for the market to be finally settled.

[alegotardo]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Man, the idea of ​​betting on events like this is fascinating because it transforms speculation into metrics... you can quantify optimism/pessimism about various aspects: technology, politics, science, and others. The only practical problems tthat I see is that a horizon of more than 10 years brings many risks that do not exist in a short term bets, and this needs to be resolved before the model works.

For example: of the case of humans on Mars, what count for a target achieved? A one way mission with volunteers, or a permanent 6-month mission, or a base of 100 people?

Another thing... if the definition is not written in a technical and auditable way, any result can be contestable. And another important thing that needs to be considered... what happens to the bets if the site disappears in 10 years? Companies close, are sold, change focus... 10 years is a long time... you could use a reliable oracle perhaps, but does it survive 10 years immune to manipulation? Look, quantum computing is coming. And what about liquidity? Who ends up on the other side of a 10 or 20 year bet? Only those who truly believe in going to Mars will take the plunge, the rest won't. The odds do not reflect a consensus, but rather the conviction of a minority.

I do not know, I find it fascinating, as I said at the beginning, but I think there are still many challenges, and that is why I wouldn't bet on it.

[Pi-network314159]

Well.. it would have been possible to only speculate that such things will happen in the future, but betting with money may not be possible. Emagine betting $100 to get results in 10years, isn't that insane? Who knows the life Spam of the person who is betting for 10years , he could have been dead before the results is out. you can only bet on something that may or may not happen within a short time frame, not something you bet and even forgot if you ever bet.

[TryNinja]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

Fair point if using fiat. The platforms could however offer placing bets in BTC ...

True, but keeping your BTC locked for 10 years...

What if you put up 0.1 BTC @ 2.00 at $8700 (current price of $87k) and after 10 years you win 0.2 BTC worth $2m (BTC at $10m)? Would the casino still pay you up? I just don't see this being a good idea.

[rezakurnia66]

Looks not really interested betting for 10 years ago and the amount of our bet get high inflation or can't predictable the value if using altcoin, recently the betting on event fa away at US election campaign but its running around one or two months if not forget it. I think if betting on event far away around two months later can acceptable but seems not good ideas if place bet for ten years later based on my opinion. Too long waiting for if place betting on event until ten year later and we can't predicting still healthy, pass away or loss access if any bad accident happening to us and war invasion possibility.
Bay the away any gambling site offering for betting on event at the future up to ten or several years later?

[Maus0728]

I do not know if it is only me but I do not like the idea of betting on stuff like the improvement of a country, it seems kind of belittling the efforts that are put into doing it and it feels like that it condenses the condition of those people that are stricken by poverty into a simple factor of a game. I do like the idea of doing the bets but it is a bad taste plus how do we really know if we won the bet though? Are there like deciding factors or metrics to measure if someone won? Of course some of the bets would be simpler but what about the complex ones? Another thing that would be problematic too with country's improvement bet or anything the like is that you can just look up their corruption index and if they are high up on the list, you can probably easily win the bet. Another obvious factor as to why these bets are rare if not nonexistent is the time that it will take for the bet and for me, I think stakes in this kind of bet should not be in hundreds or thousands but millions of because I doubt that anyone would be willing to wait for a thousand bucks in 10 years time.

[maydna]

That is too long for me. I don't know if I can still be alive until that year or not. I need to leave a note to my family that I placed a bet on something that is too long from now so they will check it for me if I have already died before the result comes out. Yes, that can be fun for few dollars. But I don't know for sure because I don't tell others about my gambling activity. If I tell them that I placed a bet on that, I don't know how they will react.

[Alpha Marine]

I would like to, but 10 years is a long time. The company you placed the bet with might not exist anymore in 10 years.  . The reason I would like to try is that I can play it and forget about it, so even if I lose it won't mean much to me, but it might mean something if I win, but it's not realistic. Something within the next three years is more realistic.

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

Not if you bet with Bitcoin and your potential win is in Bitcoin. There are a few other altcoins you can stake with, too, that won't be affected by inflation. If inflation is the only problem, it can easily be rectified with Bitcoin and the potential win might be worth even more in ten years.

[Fiatless]

Gamblers are very impatient people. Those who gamble want to make a profit fast without waiting for a long time. This kind of bet will not attract many people. I checked the Polymarket prediction site, and the most popular bets don't exceed a one-year time frame.  Many people will also avoid such a bet because of their age. Gamblers who are sixty years and above might avoid it since the possibility of them living till the predicted date is low.

I would like to, but 10 years is a long time. The company you placed the bet with might not exist anymore in 10 years.  . The reason I would like to try is that I can play it and forget about it, so even if I lose it won't mean much to me, but it might mean something if I win, but it's not realistic. Something within the next three years is more realistic.

Some gambling companies have lasted for decades, so they can be trusted. A government agency or reputable insurance company could serve as a guarantor.

[AakZaki]

Hah 10 years from now, I'm not sure anyone will be risking money or assets like Bitcoin or anything like that for that long. because basically managing money or assets in a gradual Time is much more profitable and can minimize losses.
Let's say for example, Betting 10 years is definitely the money held during that time, even though the money can actually be made bets periodically if the intention is to gamble.

Unless the intention is to bet on the stock market, because some parts can still be considered considering the ongoing development of the project.

[DPHOR]

I think this can only happens on the prediction market and not in betting site or gambling site.
Again, most times why it is not advisable to make such bet is that you can't predicts your life and how long you should be living on the face of the earth. Incredible things happens nowadays and we can't really predicts the movement of man and his future, as the future is not that viewable. Lastly there could age restriction to such bet, maybe anyone who is above 50-70 may not be allowed to place such bet, and also when placing such bet you should be looking at your age limits to know if you would be there to witnessed what you have also predicted as well otherwise when you win then the prediction market takes your winning.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Betting on events that will happen more than 10 years from now? Lol, I'm afraid I'll forget about this bet myself. It's already been written here that a lot can go wrong with this bet. The site you're betting on will shut down. Betting will lose interest, or new types of betting will be invented. Fiat will depreciate, and Bitcoin will become irrelevant for some reason (think of your own: a critical vulnerability, a quantum attack, or a technologically more advanced competitor). You could die or lose access to the gaming site during this time. Of course, 10 years isn't that long, but 20-25 years is a time when the most fantastic predictions and risks can come to fruition.

[Hypnotizer]

We can tell from the poll that most people (if not all) don’t want to bet on those kind of event right now because it seems kinda too far maybe you wouldn’t be able to even live till then  but event not too far like maybe after a month or two, I know for sure people do bet on that.

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

But it got me wondering how will those kinda bets be fun? I mean you would not know the winner till after ten year or even more, you will live your life normally till when the day comes and you see will see who wins, maybe that’s the day the bet will be fun.. 

[alani123]

There are some such events but I'd really rather not lock any money with a platform that may go bankrupt or even stop working if it's decentralised later on in the future.

Maybe we could bet on such things based on a bank contract with some ifs:
If platform not bankrupt and if bet market still has volume over $1m and of bet not withdrawn
At time of decision withdraw x amount and if won multiply by multiplier and give back

I can't really see this working well with crypto to be honest. There's a reason places like pokymarket will only provide markets on events just a few months ahead.

[_act_]

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Such bets are not fun for me at all.

Even I only bet on events like the United States presidential election when the time of the election is very close, I did not bet on it some weeks or months away. I prefer bets that I can see the result early.

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

If I want to do something like that, I will use bitcoin for the bet which is a store of value asset.

[Merit.s]

I'm not a patient gambler, I love to bet on a game that the results will be out in two to three days which is the main reason why I don't bet on long parlay that will take a week or more to end the games.

Betting on an event in the next ten years to me is not gambling anymore, because nobody knows if you will be alive to claim your wins if it happens that your prediction was correct. I would have forgotten that I placed such a bet since gambling is the last thing in my mind to think of.