Bitcoin speculation thread for January 2026

[Oshosondy]

If you take a look at the bitcoin monthly candles, is it not hard to make speculation about it? Bitcoin is slightly at the lower part of the middle band already. 4 hours, including the weekly candles showing like bitcoin price might increase in price in short term.

What I think is that bitcoin price might later fall this month from what I saw on monthly candles. What do you people think? I might be wrong.

Although it will good to DCA this year and prepare for 2027.

[Tonimez]

If you take a look at the bitcoin monthly candles, is it not hard to make speculation about it? Bitcoin is slightly at the lower part of the middle band already. 4 hours, including the weekly candles showing like bitcoin price might increase in price in short term.

What I think is that bitcoin price might later fall this month from what I saw on monthly candles. What do you people think? I might be wrong.

Although it will good to DCA this year and prepare for 2027.

Yeah, the year 2026 is still new and promising. I am very indifferent about bitcoin price this time around and I wouldn't be very much interested in the short term goal. Instead however, yeah, a hint on the probable short term increment could spur someone to invest aggressively this period (so long as you have an additional discretionary income or reserved funds). Moreso, remaining true to your DCA approach is the best plan anyone can make now. If you get to see some opportunities to buy aggressively (sometimes when dips meet some reserved funds or additional discretionary income), then you are are on the right track.

If in 2 to 3 months the bitcoin price still trails, then we may have possibly entered the bear market and it wouldn't be a suprise since we have successfully concluded a cycle already. Even though there's no strict adherence to the bitcoin cycle behaviour, but to an extent, its influence still doesn't go unnoticed. Buy more and think less about sales! This will guide every investor through this phase without getting to sell off your bitcoin portfolio out of panic.

[JeffBrad12]

For 2026, I think there will be a dead cat bounce to 100k in the Q1 - Q2 and then dump until as low as $70k for the Q3.
Just my short guess from looking at weekly candle though.

My guess is that if bearish really occur in 2026, the lowest price would be $70k and then there will be a really long consolidation probably gonna take 2 years.

[dunfida]

For 2026, I think there will be a dead cat bounce to 100k in the Q1 - Q2 and then dump until as low as $70k for the Q3.
Just my short guess from looking at weekly candle though.

My guess is that if bearish really occur in 2026, the lowest price would be $70k and then there will be a really long consolidation probably gonna take 2 years.

If it would be making up some swing movements then i dont believe that it would be making a dead cat bounce upto $100k. Well, its hard to guess yet sentiments could set in and make push of the price within those levels or even more. This is why im not that fixating myself on a particular price yet it could move into only 2 different directions. This is why it would be that so hard on making up some positioning not unless if you are that a holder then it wont be that much of a concern or wont be worrying. For now, people had been that anticipating that December would be good for the price or some push up but we didnt see it and now that we are on a new year then this is where we do able to make some assumptions again that it might happen on Q1.

Are we starting already on this bearish run? No one knows but if we do tend to look at the timeline about that bull run and bearish market duration then we are actually into this time already on which this is already start of the bearish market, but just like been said that no one really knows on whats ahead.

[DanWalker]

For 2026, I think there will be a dead cat bounce to 100k in the Q1 - Q2 and then dump until as low as $70k for the Q3.
Just my short guess from looking at weekly candle though.

My guess is that if bearish really occur in 2026, the lowest price would be $70k and then there will be a really long consolidation probably gonna take 2 years.

I partially agree, I also predict a temporary rebound and that Bitcoin could return to above $100k by Q1 2026. After that, we will enter a bear market that will last until the end of the year. But I believe that bear markets will be just as fierce as previous cycles, and possibly even worse if the global economy becomes unstable due to geopolitical factors. I predict and expect the bottom of Bitcoin to be in the range of $45k-$50k, and that the bottom will be formed in the third or fourth quarter of this year.

I don't know about everyone else, but I'm really expecting bitcoin to drop even further this year.

[_act_]

I partially agree, I also predict a temporary rebound and that Bitcoin could return to above $100k by Q1 2026. After that, we will enter a bear market that will last until the end of the year. But I believe that bear markets will be just as fierce as previous cycles, and possibly even worse if the global economy becomes unstable due to geopolitical factors. I predict and expect the bottom of Bitcoin to be in the range of $45k-$50k, and that the bottom will be formed in the third or fourth quarter of this year.

I don't know about everyone else, but I'm really expecting bitcoin to drop even further this year.

I think bitcoin price will fall this year but I am not really sure because I do not know if the 4 year cycle is truly over and gone in a way it will never happen again.

But anything that can make bitcoin get to $100000 again, I do not think bitcoin can go very bearish this year as the support may stay above $70000. So if bitcoin will be bearish this year, it suppose to start early this year.

Let us see what will happen, but I do not believe those that said bitcoin will get to ATH this year.

But this thread is more about the speculation for January and not the whole 2026.

[JeffBrad12]

If it would be making up some swing movements then i dont believe that it would be making a dead cat bounce upto $100k. Well, its hard to guess yet sentiments could set in and make push of the price within those levels or even more. This is why im not that fixating myself on a particular price yet it could move into only 2 different directions. This is why it would be that so hard on making up some positioning not unless if you are that a holder then it wont be that much of a concern or wont be worrying. For now, people had been that anticipating that December would be good for the price or some push up but we didnt see it and now that we are on a new year then this is where we do able to make some assumptions again that it might happen on Q1.

Are we starting already on this bearish run? No one knows but if we do tend to look at the timeline about that bull run and bearish market duration then we are actually into this time already on which this is already start of the bearish market, but just like been said that no one really knows on whats ahead.

For holder if the bottom is 70k that's actually a good news because next cycle we will have an even higher all time high.
This time around we got no FTX ponzi scheme collapse, no massive stablecoin depegging, and nothing bad that actually matter happening. We got nonstop adoption from institutional level to retailer.

At this point I have a firm belief that even if bearish is coming, it won't be that deep of a drawdown. So 70k it is that I consider to be the bottom for next bearish. Of course just my random guess, take it with grain of salt.

[Charles-Tim]

For holder if the bottom is 70k that's actually a good news because next cycle we will have an even higher all time high.
This time around we got no FTX ponzi scheme collapse, no massive stablecoin depegging, and nothing bad that actually matter happening. We got nonstop adoption from institutional level to retailer.

Good post. But if bitcoin makes it below $70000, even down to $60000, that is also not a bad news at all because bitcoin price will definitely increase back when the right time comes.

You have a good point that nothing bad is happening now, but what if bitcoin price fall to some extent, how can we be sure some bad news will not surface? Bitcoin had fallen significantly when some bad news started to surface in 2022.

But regardless of what will happen, bitcoin price will increase later and get to all-time high.

[DanWalker]

This time around we got no FTX ponzi scheme collapse, no massive stablecoin depegging, and nothing bad that actually matter happening. We got nonstop adoption from institutional level to retailer.

The market has become more mature, and regulations and the legal framework are gradually being perfected. You're right, we won't be seeing the collapse of centralized platforms like FTX or Ponzi schemes like Luna anymore. But you forgot that the macroeconomic risks are still there, and they could even have more serious impacts and consequences.

Geopolitical instability, war, inflation, or, as many experts fear, the bursting of the AI bubble...All of these things could cause a global economic recession, and if that happens. This year's bear market will likely be the most brutal one ever.

[Popkon6]

Although it will good to DCA this year and prepare for 2027.

The price of Bitcoin is under the control of investors, because the price of Bitcoin will definitely increase this January and there is a high possibility of touching $100K. From where it touched a maximum of $126K in 2025, it is gradually dumping and is currently near the 90K range. So at present, the real reality is to save Bitcoin for the future by following our DCO method, because the current price of Bitcoin will not be higher than this price in the future. That is why if you follow the DCA method in Bitcoin, you will constantly buy dips.

[Frankolala]

Why did you create two different threads with the same topic. You should have given this thread a different topic. Back to the OP, I'm not expecting something new this January apart from the normal sideways movement of bitcoin between $80k-90k range. Maybe, we might see the might go above 90k but it wouldn't go far. I'm bearish this month.

[STT]

Its time to be bullish, new year new month and new trend its very much looking like is the most probable course forward.
   Breaking past the 50 day moving average here is likely indicative of bullish future BTC price action, especially if markets can manage to do as much with higher volume confirming and countering prior weaker volume and pricing  into end of year.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

From what am seeing, this month of January may come more bullish than we ended with last month, if we can maintain the support to $90,000 then it may get more better for this moth that we get to $100,000 with the market price, all we have to do is in giving a more closer look on the ranges, how the market moves and the pattern with the general performance, so am bullish for the month of January.