2026 Difficulty Thread

[philipma1957]

 


waiting for a bit to open this  thread.


link to 2025 thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5523779.0

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   931418  (34 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   63.2053%  (27 / 42.72 expected, 15.72 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 95204546313425 and 144403610240698
Next Difficulty Change:   between -35.0018% and -1.4125%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 22, 2026 at 8:06 AM  (in 13d 22h 5m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 30, 2026 at 6:29 AM  (in 21d 20h 28m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 12m 15s and 22d 3h 36m 3s


New thread we had a solid drop of 1.2% we are at 146t we were over 155t a while ago.




Latest Block:   932056  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.4683%  (665 / 682.27 expected, 17.27 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 143011323472136 and 144545268621171
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3631% and -1.3158%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 22, 2026 at 7:42 AM  (in 9d 11h 5m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 22, 2026 at 11:37 AM  (in 9d 15h 0m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 48m 29s and 14d 8h 43m 38s


small drop may or may not happen


Latest Block:   932141  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.5870%  (750 / 776.50 expected, 26.5 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 141688442110020 and 143537274688955
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2662% and -2.0040%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 22, 2026 at 10:05 AM  (in 8d 21h 46m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 22, 2026 at 2:46 PM  (in 9d 2h 27m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 11m 26s and 14d 11h 52m 22s


price up a fraction and diff is still down  but 8 or 9 days left means anything can happen

Latest Block:   932176  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.6923%  (785 / 811.85 expected, 26.85 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 141833625459227 and 143528494373639
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1671% and -2.0100%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 22, 2026 at 10:06 AM  (in 8d 15h 53m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 22, 2026 at 2:23 PM  (in 8d 20h 11m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 12m 30s and 14d 11h 29m 38s


_______________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________


Latest Block:   932412  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.3208%  (1021 / 1071.12 expected, 50.12 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 139772546018817 and 141347520033600
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.5743% and -3.4990%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 22, 2026 at 3:22 PM  (in 7d 1h 57m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 22, 2026 at 7:23 PM  (in 7d 5h 58m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 28m 34s and 14d 16h 29m 38s

___________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   932523  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.6413%  (1132 / 1196.09 expected, 64.09 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 138760272043839 and 140179445049803
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.2654% and -4.2965%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 6:15 PM  (in 6d 8h 1m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 9:55 PM  (in 6d 11h 40m 31s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 22m 0s and 14d 19h 1m 28s

________________________________________
____________________________________________


Latest Block:   932825  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   95.7452%  (1434 / 1497.73 expected, 63.73 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                           
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 140350810653853 and 140841396744261
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.1795% and -3.8445%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:35 PM  (in 4d 4h 3m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 5:49 PM  (in 4d 5h 18m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 41m 13s and 14d 14h 55m 53s


price is around 95.3k we seem to be having a solid drop, but there is enough time to go up close to -1% or -2%

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   932958  (19 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.2042%  (1567 / 1628.83 expected, 61.83 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 141014773781292 and 141275894151616
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.7262% and -3.5479%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 3:29 PM  (in 3d 5h 7m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 4:09 PM  (in 3d 5h 47m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 35m 58s and 14d 13h 15m 25s

grabbed a bit of blocks last day.

which is funny since price drop from 95k to 92k


Latest Block:   933133  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.4511%  (1742 / 1806.10 expected, 64.1 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 141366658877994 and 141457747432064
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.4859% and -3.4237%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 3:02 PM  (in 1d 23h 7m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 3:15 PM  (in 1d 23h 20m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 8m 4s and 14d 12h 21m 46s

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Latest Block:   933358  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.7946%  (1967 / 2032.14 expected, 65.14 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 141859758024641 and 141862397319468
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1493% and -3.1475%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 2:01 PM  (in 0d 8h 25m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 2:01 PM  (in 0d 8h 26m 13s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 7m 13s and 14d 11h 7m 36s



2 to 4% drop coming up

the time from October 30th to now has been a steady drop or flat for 5 soon to be 6 jumps

155.9
155.2
149.3
148.2
148.3 this was 1 or 2 blocks off from a drop
146.4
141.6T is the new number.  so 14 weeks of even or lower diff


if that one tiny rise was a drop we would have had the longest set of dropped jumps ever.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   933383  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.7084%  (1992 / 2059.80 expected, 67.8 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                            
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 141732344111015 and 141732994173616
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2363% and -3.2358%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 2:20 PM  (in 0d 4h 8m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 2:20 PM  (in 0d 4h 8m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 26m 4s and 14d 11h 26m 10s



I wonder when we get a good jump up ?

[alh]

In response to your question, I expect the reward (in dollars per Terahash) will have to go up. Electricity prices have not gone down, and I expect the "AI Gold Rush" will divert some capital away from BTC projects into AI infrastructure. Big money folks really don't care about BTC, they care about it's potential return (in $$$), and right now that is languishing. Foe good or for bad, AI is shining brightly and hence money chasing it. 

Just my opinion.

[philipma1957]

It would be helpful to have diff slowly lower. It would also be something that has never really happened .

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   933553  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.5263%  (146 / 145.24 expected, 0.76 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                           
Current Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 141797049466763 and 142596994986509
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0910% and +0.6557%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 2:29 PM  (-3.2801%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 5, 2026 at 12:43 PM  (in 12d 22h 2m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 5, 2026 at 2:14 PM  (in 12d 23h 32m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 14m 27s and 13d 23h 45m 15s

Many talk about BTC maturing. a shift from mining it to ai because there are more dollars earned for megawatts spent would be a sign that btc has change from a best new thing play for power used to one of many things that earn profit for power used.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

<snip>
Many talk about BTC maturing. a shift from mining it to ai because there are more dollars earned for megawatts spent would be a sign that btc has change from a best new thing play for power used to one of many things that earn profit for power used.

Something I'm finding rather amusing is that in Michigan so far 2 massive AI datacenter proposals have been facing very strong local opposition. One was allowed only after being majorly scaled back and the other is facing cancellation. Other AI datacenter projects in different states are facing similar opposition.

The main reasons given that the locals are up in arms about? Fear of them draining the local water infra and the multi-hundred megawatt (each starting at 500MW+) power draws straining the State's power grid. Both are almost hilariously wrong...

Fun Facts:
a. Water usage in even the largest data centers is very minimal. Once cooling systems are topped off there is NO major constant draw on water supporting them. Because they are closed-loop only a periodic and minimal refresh & topping off is done when needed. Aside from that it's only what's used to support folks working there as in; for bathrooms, drinking fountains, breakrooms, etc.
 sub Fun Fact: Much of Michigan sits just 2-3 feet above the water table... For other states water availability and usage *might* be a valid point but then any good sized office building, manufacturing plant or shopping center project should be a 'problem' as well.

b. Thanks to some very large wind & solar farms Michigan has excess power production and often sells power to adjoining states. It so happens that the scaled-back facility sits RIGHT NEXT TO a several hundred acre an over 1000-acre solar facility... That and the 2 state Grid operators (Consumers Energy & DTE) have already okayed up to 2 GW being available to the the projects. ref DTE's renewable map

edit: Google sat map of the Assembly Solar farm that is part of the feed to the scaled back AI center. Zoom out and up a bit to see the entire scope of it. Most of it is 1.5 miles wide and is 10 miles long...

Idjits  

[philipma1957]

<snip>
Many talk about BTC maturing. a shift from mining it to ai because there are more dollars earned for megawatts spent would be a sign that btc has change from a best new thing play for power used to one of many things that earn profit for power used.

Something I'm finding rather amusing is that in Michigan so far 2 massive AI datacenter proposals have been facing very strong local opposition. One was allowed only after being majorly scaled back and the other is facing cancellation. Other AI datacenter projects in different states are facing similar opposition.

The main reasons locals are up in arms about? Fear of them draining the local water infra and the multi-hundred megawatt (each starting at 500MW+) power draws straining the State's power grid. Both are almost hilariously wrong...

Fun Facts:
a. Water usage in even the largest data centers is very minimal. Once cooling systems are topped off there is NO major constant draw on water, only what's used to support folks working there as in; for bathrooms, drinking fountains, breakrooms, etc.
sub Fun Fact: Much of Michigan sits just 2-3 feet above the water table... For other states water availability and usage *might* be a valid point but then any good sized office building, manufacturing plant or shopping center project should be a 'problem' as well.

b. Thanks to some very large wind & solar farms Michigan has excess power production and often sells power to adjoining states. It so happens that the scaled-back facility sits RIGHT NEXT TO a several hundred acre solar facility... That and the 2 regional Grid operators have already okayed up to 2 GW being available to the the projects.

Idjits  

can’t make it up 🆙

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   933752  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   82.7279%  (345 / 417.03 expected, 72.03 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                           
Current Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 117251601611339 and 132999938860017
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.2350% and -6.1186%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:29 PM  (-3.2801%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 6, 2026 at 12:26 PM  (in 12d 0h 27m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 8, 2026 at 12:38 PM  (in 14d 0h 38m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 57m 19s and 16d 22h 9m 1s

It is early but these are really really big drop off.

Let’s watch this closely

[DaveF]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   933752  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   82.7279%  (345 / 417.03 expected, 72.03 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Current Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 117251601611339 and 132999938860017
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.2350% and -6.1186%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:29 PM  (-3.2801%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 6, 2026 at 12:26 PM  (in 12d 0h 27m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 8, 2026 at 12:38 PM  (in 14d 0h 38m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 57m 19s and 16d 22h 9m 1s

It is early but these are really really big drop off.

Let’s watch this closely

A bunch of non critical DCs in Texas and the SE are offline now trying to keep usage low due to the ice / snow storm.
So that is probably some of it.

So from the guy in NY to the guy in NJ. "Geez, what a bunch of wimps those Texans are, can't take a little cold"

-Dave

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   933752  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   82.7279%  (345 / 417.03 expected, 72.03 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Current Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 117251601611339 and 132999938860017
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.2350% and -6.1186%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:29 PM  (-3.2801%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 6, 2026 at 12:26 PM  (in 12d 0h 27m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 8, 2026 at 12:38 PM  (in 14d 0h 38m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 57m 19s and 16d 22h 9m 1s

It is early but these are really really big drop off.

Let’s watch this closely

A bunch of non critical DCs in Texas and the SE are offline now trying to keep usage low due to the ice / snow storm.
So that is probably some of it.

So from the guy in NY to the guy in NJ. "Geez, what a bunch of wimps those Texans are, can't take a little cold"

-Dave
-Dave

Yeah I will be 69 on Tuesday shoveled a 24 by 40 foot driveway with about 10 inches of snow .

Still need to wait on plow action as the plows always make a mess at the end of the driveway.

If it'sa dead  power center let's hope it lasts.

Silver is over 107. Going to stack more btc with my sales