2026 Difficulty Thread

[FP91G]

It won't be profitable for me to mine at prices below $50,000, and the only expenses for mining are electricity. Mining companies have contracts with energy companies and can't shut down quickly.

But we've already seen history where large miners operated at a loss for extended periods. But then these actions paid off handsomely.

[philipma1957]

It won't be profitable for me to mine at prices below $50,000, and the only expenses for mining are electricity. Mining companies have contracts with energy companies and can't shut down quickly.

But we've already seen history where large miners operated at a loss for extended periods. But then these actions paid off handsomely.

My gear is s21xp

So 3.4x270= 9.28 in earnings

Burns 84 kwatts

My power is under 9 cents

So 7.56 burned

9.28-7.56= 1.72 profit based on only power cost.

A 20 percent price drop would be about 57000 a coin and put me in the red.

9.28 x .8 = 7.42 and I would lose 14 cents a machine

[FP91G]

It won't be profitable for me to mine at prices below $50,000, and the only expenses for mining are electricity. Mining companies have contracts with energy companies and can't shut down quickly.

But we've already seen history where large miners operated at a loss for extended periods. But then these actions paid off handsomely.

My gear is s21xp

So 3.4x270= 9.28 in earnings

Burns 84 kwatts

My power is under 9 cents

So 7.56 burned

9.28-7.56= 1.72 profit based on only power cost.

A 20 percent price drop would be about 57000 a coin and put me in the red.

9.28 x .8 = 7.42 and I would lose 14 cents a machine

How do you calculate the cost of mining?
For how long do you add equipment depreciation into your expenses?
If you also factor in taxes and additional services, you might even be surprised to learn that buying coins now isn't such a bad idea.

[Nexus9090]

Hashrate has moved up significantly over the past day, I guess the weather has improved enough for the big farms to start switching back on. My guess is they were waiting for the diff adjustment before switching back on.

WRT price, there are $Billions of shorts stacked against BTC presently all in the $70k region this fragility puts pressure on BTC could trigger a massive sell-off which is what I've been expecting for a while.

I still expect BTC to dump into the $45k region before a genuine recovery starts.

[philipma1957]

It won't be profitable for me to mine at prices below $50,000, and the only expenses for mining are electricity. Mining companies have contracts with energy companies and can't shut down quickly.

But we've already seen history where large miners operated at a loss for extended periods. But then these actions paid off handsomely.

My gear is s21xp

So 3.4x270= 9.28 in earnings

Burns 84 kwatts

My power is under 9 cents

So 7.56 burned

9.28-7.56= 1.72 profit based on only power cost.

A 20 percent price drop would be about 57000 a coin and put me in the red.

9.28 x .8 = 7.42 and I would lose 14 cents a machine

How do you calculate the cost of mining?
For how long do you add equipment depreciation into your expenses?
If you also factor in taxes and additional services, you might even be surprised to learn that buying coins now isn't such a bad idea.

  I write them off the year I buy them. My cost is complex but pretty much they have been written off in 2024 and 2025.

  I very likely will not buy miners this year.
I purchased a lot of btc in the 60k to 75k range,

I basically have nothing to do but post for 2026.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   935993  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   109.7925%  (570 / 519.16 expected, 50.84 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                            
Current Difficulty:   125864590119494.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 131725752716130 and 138562683048380
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6567% and +10.0887%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 8:42 AM  (-11.1553%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 20, 2026 at 2:44 AM  (in 9d 3h 30m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 20, 2026 at 6:09 PM  (in 9d 18h 55m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 18h 1m 54s and 13d 9h 26m 57s[/quote]


Still a big comeback in hash.

Latest Block:   936235  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   111.5652%  (812 / 727.83 expected, 84.17 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                            
Current Difficulty:   125864590119494.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 135018275007001 and 140691109587533
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.2726% and +11.7797%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 8:42 AM  (-11.1553%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 19, 2026 at 9:52 PM  (in 7d 11h 51m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 20, 2026 at 10:18 AM  (in 8d 0h 17m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 13h 10m 8s and 13d 1h 35m 32s


so far it looks that if you toss the storm out

141.6t becomes 140.6t over a 2 jump period of time.

this is basically the same slow decline in hash since last nov when price sank under 100k


Latest Block:   936566  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   112.5104%  (1143 / 1015.91 expected, 127.09 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                           
Current Difficulty:   125864590119494.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 138515952038777 and 141805696050705
Next Difficulty Change:   between +10.0516% and +12.6653%
Previous Retarget:   February 7, 2026 at 8:42 AM  (-11.1553%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 7:21 PM  (in 5d 9h 19m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 2:21 AM  (in 5d 16h 19m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 10h 38m 20s and 12d 17h 38m 42s

[philipma1957]

Well we got back a lot:

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   937460  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.0787%  (21 / 22.32 expected, 1.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   125864590119494.3                            
Current Difficulty:   144398401518100.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 139205420637561 and 144286849295451
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.5963% and -0.0773%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 1:49 PM  (+14.7252%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 5, 2026 at 2:15 PM  (in 13d 20h 43m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 6, 2026 at 10:58 AM  (in 14d 17h 25m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 26m 17s and 14d 21h 8m 51s

---------------------------------------------------------------

Early at this time

Latest Block:   937549  (22 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   86.9365%  (110 / 126.53 expected, 16.53 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   125864590119494.3                            
Current Difficulty:   144398401518100.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126071311775972 and 142204038955245
Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.6920% and -1.5197%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 1:49 PM  (+14.7252%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 5, 2026 at 7:10 PM  (in 13d 8h 16m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 7, 2026 at 4:18 PM  (in 15d 5h 24m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 21m 33s and 16d 2h 29m 20s

————————————————————————————-

still off a bit but very early
 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 


Latest Block:   937721  (24 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.2468%  (282 / 315.98 expected, 33.98 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   125864590119494.3                           
Current Difficulty:   144398401518100.9                           
Next Difficulty:   between 129090891359743 and 140076512622179
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.6009% and -2.9930%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 1:49 PM  (+14.7252%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 6, 2026 at 12:21 AM  (in 12d 5h 52m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 7, 2026 at 6:18 AM  (in 13d 11h 49m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 32m 1s and 15d 16h 29m 2s