2026 Difficulty Thread

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   968409  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.1174%  (730 / 767.47 expected, 37.47 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   127450789715843.1                            
Current Difficulty:   132757073449487.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126307437352693 and 128854729678261
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.8582% and -2.9395%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:07 AM  (+4.1634%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 3, 2026 at 1:20 PM  (in 9d 2h 19m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 3, 2026 at 8:21 PM  (in 9d 9h 20m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 13m 45s and 14d 17h 14m 51s


Still a bit off pace.
Very likely if it continues it was caused by Ethiopia shutdowns.

I had thought they were 3-6% of all mining

and we are off by 4.8% so it is right in line

we are but 5 days in with 9 to go.

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   968744  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   97.3539%  (1065 / 1093.95 expected, 28.95 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   127450789715843.1                            
Current Difficulty:   132757073449487.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 129267430582419 and 130028002317399
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.6286% and -2.0557%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2026 at 3:07 AM  (+4.1634%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 3, 2026 at 10:13 AM  (in 6d 16h 46m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 3, 2026 at 12:15 PM  (in 6d 18h 48m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 6m 1s and 14d 9h 7m 57s


Still off pace about half the way there.

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   969161  (14 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.1431%  (1482 / 1479.88 expected, 2.12 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127450789715843.1                           
Current Difficulty:   132757073449487.5                           
Next Difficulty:   between 132950086095579 and 132964672844042
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1454% and +0.1564%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2026 at 3:07 AM  (+4.1634%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 2:38 AM  (in 3d 16h 52m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 2:40 AM  (in 3d 16h 54m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 31m 11s and 13d 23h 33m 13s

[joker_josue]

Interesting to note, that despite the appreciation that Bitcoin has had in recent weeks, nothing special but it has, we are not seeing a very significant increase in difficulty.

[philipma1957]

Interesting to note, that despite the appreciation that Bitcoin has had in recent weeks, nothing special but it has, we are not seeing a very significant increase in difficulty.

yeah it could be lining up like 2017 did.

We were mooning and hash was stable.

[joker_josue]

Interesting to note, that despite the appreciation that Bitcoin has had in recent weeks, nothing special but it has, we are not seeing a very significant increase in difficulty.

yeah it could be lining up like 2017 did.

We were mooning and hash was stable.

Yes, but in 2017 we saw the market subsequently giving a major boost to mining.

Given the current circumstances, does something similar seem to be emerging?

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   969313  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.9163%  (1634 / 1635.37 expected, 1.37 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   127450789715843.1                           
Current Difficulty:   132757073449487.5                           
Next Difficulty:   between 132661955612135 and 132665368386178
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.0716% and -0.0691%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2026 at 3:07 AM  (+4.1634%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 3:23 AM  (in 2d 15h 42m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 3:23 AM  (in 2d 15h 43m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 16m 16s and 14d 0h 16m 52s


Very flat diff.

Maybe we headed to 100k and then 150k this year.

[mikeywith]

Given the current circumstances, does something similar seem to be emerging?

Can't happen, in 2017 BTC price did 20x increase; there was no way for difficulty to catch up with that, so profit for existing miners went up at least 10x. This year BTC can hardly do 2x and while difficulty can't do a 2x in a short period of time, the baseline of current profitliy is terrible anyway, so even if were to assume that diff won't follow price, a 2x increase in BTC price isn't going to be a massive game changer.

2017 was a year from another universe -- I am so glad I witnessed it because it will be remembered forever.

[philipma1957]

Given the current circumstances, does something similar seem to be emerging?

Can't happen, in 2017 BTC price did 20x increase; there was no way for difficulty to catch up with that, so profit for existing miners went up at least 10x. This year BTC can hardly do 2x and while difficulty can't do a 2x in a short period of time, the baseline of current profitliy is terrible anyway, so even if were to assume that diff won't follow price, a 2x increase in BTC price isn't going to be a massive game changer.

2017 was a year from another universe -- I am so glad I witnessed it because it will be remembered forever.

Jan 2017 say 1000
Dec 2017 say 19000

The marketcap  value was 1,000x16,000,000 that's about 16,000,000,000

 16 or 17 billion

At the end of the year at 19x17= 323 billion

Many people can trapped in the thought that 16 to 323 was done

But 1630 billion can not go 10x to 16300 billion

Or 1.63 trillion can not go to 16.3 trillion


Well let's examine this belief

16.3-1.63= 14.67 trillion gain.

Check golds gain in 2025. Marketcap wise.

Gold was 2.6 k an oz in Jan 2025 about 26 trillion dollars
Gold was 5.2 k an oz in Jan 2026 about 52 trillion dollars


A cap gains over 26 trillion  we did see in about a year.

I have seen other estimates of the marketcap gain some as low as 17 trillion

Either market cap gain 17 or 26 trillion would mean insane gains for btc

Also silver went from 1.5 trillion to 5 trillion or a bit over 3x market cap.

That would move btc to 3x 83k in under a year ie 249k for btc in under 7 months.

Check silvers move out.




Last sat I was on vacation in Newark NY spent a few nites on the Erie Canal
We hit a strong drop on Sat the 3rd.

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   970401  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.5354%  (706 / 668.97 expected, 37.03 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   132757073449487.5                           
Current Difficulty:   132716002350731.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 136878083720593 and 140088833333931
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1361% and +5.5553%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:15 AM  (-0.0309%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 16, 2026 at 9:37 AM  (in 8d 14h 52m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 16, 2026 at 5:04 PM  (in 8d 22h 19m 22s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 6h 22m 36s and 13d 13h 49m 4s


We went down last jump but we are making it back up this jump.

[philipma1957]

Newhedge.io
Latest Block:   971409  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.5461%  (1714 / 1623.94 expected, 90.06 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   132757073449487.5                           
Current Difficulty:   132716002350731.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 139913060973178 and 140087450587486
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.4229% and +5.5543%
Previous Retarget:   October 3, 2026 at 3:15 AM  (-0.0309%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 9:35 AM  (in 1d 23h 41m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 9:59 AM  (in 2d 0h 5m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 6h 20m 39s and 13d 6h 44m 26s

Friday we will jump up a lot maybe 5 or 6% that is a good amount

Last jump was only 0.0309%

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Ref https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5596823.msg67240882#msg67240882
Wonder what losing 38EHS is going to do to diff?

Also ref https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475844.msg67240983#msg67240983
Seems a single address on Ocean is pushing 18E for the past few days....

[philipma1957]

Ref https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5596823.msg67240882#msg67240882
Wonder what losing 38EHS is going to do to diff?

Also ref https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475844.msg67240983#msg67240983
Seems a single address on Ocean is pushing 18E for the past few days....

-3% NEXT JUMP?

or maybe not

Latest Block:   971782  (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.7756%  (71 / 67.76 expected, 3.24 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   132716002350731.3                           
Current Difficulty:   140577680051919.6                           
Next Difficulty:   between 141135826912064 and 149098936257221
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3970% and +6.0616%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 8:29 AM  (+5.9237%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 29, 2026 at 5:10 PM  (in 12d 21h 23m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 30, 2026 at 7:25 AM  (in 13d 11h 38m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 8h 41m 7s and 13d 22h 56m 25s