BTC Sentiment Poll for 2026

[tokeweed]

So 23 days have passed and the votes are close...  14 guys say there'll be an all time high this year while 19 guys say it's not happening.  I didn't expect it to be this close.  Lol.

I'm curious, who are the guys who voted yes.  It would've been nice to have a voting process with the names of the voters known just to see who's bullish and who's bearish. 

Anyway BTC isn't looking good folks.  Stay safe out there.

[Minor Miner]

So 23 days have passed and the votes are close...  14 guys say there'll be an all time high this year while 19 guys say it's not happening.  I didn't expect it to be this close.  Lol.

I'm curious, who are the guys who voted yes.  It would've been nice to have a voting process with the names of the voters known just to see who's bullish and who's bearish. 

Anyway BTC isn't looking good folks.  Stay safe out there.

I'm not surprised by this result because, from my observation, many people still disagree with the view that the market has entered a bear season. Many people believe that the old market cycle is no longer valid and this time will be different.

However, I think those who voted yes may have missed the opportunity to take profit when Bitcoin peaked last year. Meanwhile, those who voted no may have taken profits or are those who plan to hold for the long term.

I was one of those who voted no, and honestly, I hope the price of Bitcoin falls, the more the better.

[Alpha Marine]

I'm curious, who are the guys who voted yes.  It would've been nice to have a voting process with the names of the voters known just to see who's bullish and who's bearish. 

I voted "yes".
I am not very confident in my yes, though, but I am more bullish than I am bearish for the year.
I believe this year would be similar to last year. There will be a lot of ups and downs. the fact the year started bearing doesn't mean it will remain so. They year is still very long and a lot can happen. Currently. the biggest hinderance of Bitcoin is the geopolitical unrest going on and even at that, the price is not free falling even though its not looking good. So if such unrest can be going on and the price is still in the 80k range, then there is a lot of hope for the year because I don't believe there will be many more times like now this year.
just this year, the price has gotten to $97k, despite all that is going on, so, I'm hopeful.

[STT]

Need more negative votes, pessimism, fear, ideally panic makes me more optimistic for later in the year.    Sideways drift like we got is anyone's game at present and ultimately it goes nowhere is the best guess and nobody wins this one.
  
Great big red candle shows this week, perfectly formed because we are ending on the lows.  It registers like a bookend to the week of November 17th, I can only hope that means we are ending this chapter with an equal & opposite mirror to the start of this zero velocity formation.

[AprilioMP]

For the poll, I choose yes.
I believe that the new ATH will not differ significantly from the current ATH. I can't rely on my technical analysis because I'm not an expert in that field. If the current ATH is at $126k, then the ATH that will occur in 2026 won't exceed 50% of that price, at most only $130k after the months ahead that will be full of challenges.

[GeorgeJohn]

For the poll, I choose yes.
I believe that the new ATH will not differ significantly from the current ATH. I can't rely on my technical analysis because I'm not an expert in that field. If the current ATH is at $126k, then the ATH that will occur in 2026 won't exceed 50% of that price, at most only $130k after the months ahead that will be full of challenges.

We need to agree or believe in all this poll with a basic analysis to convince readers...with what I'm seeing here, some of all the poll suggestions and analysis is base on exaggeration, why other people is in another side predicting the opposite side of what others predict...I think we should be making findings and come up with facts when it come to poll analysis....everything is getting complicated every day via a polls suggestions.

[AprilioMP]

For the poll, I choose yes.
I believe that the new ATH will not differ significantly from the current ATH. I can't rely on my technical analysis because I'm not an expert in that field. If the current ATH is at $126k, then the ATH that will occur in 2026 won't exceed 50% of that price, at most only $130k after the months ahead that will be full of challenges.

We need to agree or believe in all this poll with a basic analysis to convince readers...with what I'm seeing here, some of all the poll suggestions and analysis is base on exaggeration, why other people is in another side predicting the opposite side of what others predict...I think we should be making findings and come up with facts when it come to poll analysis....everything is getting complicated every day via a polls suggestions.

My attention to the market situation, especially for the Bitcoin price market, makes it increasingly difficult to find the right formula that approximates what has happened historically.
Given the one-year poll (2026), I think that even if an ATH occurs, it will not differ significantly from the current ATH.
I am not sure why many people provide analyses that can be considered overly exaggerated, perhaps because for them this is just a forecast and not a certainty.
Every analysis should be based on data and a technical analysis approach that can lead to a decision.

[tokeweed]

The yes votes are gaining...  It's 16 vs 19 now.  It would've been 20 if I vote in my own polls.    But even if I voted no, I'm starting to feel like the bottom is already in.

Dunno tho...  I mean the moment when I'm starting to feel bullish, the market then shows how wrong I am and a sell down happens. 

Looking at the monthly chart, kinda feels like a good spot to buy some again.

[laspol65]

For the poll, I choose yes.
I believe that the new ATH will not differ significantly from the current ATH. I can't rely on my technical analysis because I'm not an expert in that field. If the current ATH is at $126k, then the ATH that will occur in 2026 won't exceed 50% of that price, at most only $130k after the months ahead that will be full of challenges.

We need to agree or believe in all this poll with a basic analysis to convince readers...with what I'm seeing here, some of all the poll suggestions and analysis is base on exaggeration, why other people is in another side predicting the opposite side of what others predict...I think we should be making findings and come up with facts when it come to poll analysis....everything is getting complicated every day via a polls suggestions.

My attention to the market situation, especially for the Bitcoin price market, makes it increasingly difficult to find the right formula that approximates what has happened historically.
Given the one-year poll (2026), I think that even if an ATH occurs, it will not differ significantly from the current ATH.
I am not sure why many people provide analyses that can be considered overly exaggerated, perhaps because for them this is just a forecast and not a certainty.
Every analysis should be based on data and a technical analysis approach that can lead to a decision.

But something interesting will definitely happen in the price of Bitcoin, this January has been a good month and has touched about 98k dollars. If I think about it, then of course the price of Bitcoin is currently moving towards correction, but in the current situation, the more the price of Bitcoin increases, the more it is being corrected to create opportunities to buy Bitcoin again. So this time is definitely a good and good time to invest in Bitcoin, but I can also say that the next month will definitely be a good and good time with the price of Bitcoin.

[AprilioMP]

[edited out]

But something interesting will definitely happen in the price of Bitcoin, this January has been a good month and has touched about 98k dollars. If I think about it, then of course the price of Bitcoin is currently moving towards correction, but in the current situation, the more the price of Bitcoin increases, the more it is being corrected to create opportunities to buy Bitcoin again. So this time is definitely a good and good time to invest in Bitcoin, but I can also say that the next month will definitely be a good and good time with the price of Bitcoin.

You'll say again that February isn't a good month for Bitcoin prices if the price doesn't differ from January's Bitcoin price, which is currently at $98,000. Then someone else will come along and argue that February really isn't a good month for trading prices.
If you use the content of this post as the narrative for a video you’ll upload to a video platform like YouTube, your video will be flooded with comments questioning the intent behind your message.

For those who believe in Bitcoin and want to own it, when we say this month isn't good, for them it's the best month.
Do you believe the opposite of what you're saying? The simplest strategy is to buy and hold. You'll become like Saylor, CZ, and other public figures instead of worrying about it being bad for the price.

[fullfitlarry]

The yes votes are gaining...  It's 16 vs 19 now.  It would've been 20 if I vote in my own polls.    But even if I voted no, I'm starting to feel like the bottom is already in.

Dunno tho...  I mean the moment when I'm starting to feel bullish, the market then shows how wrong I am and a sell down happens. 

Looking at the monthly chart, kinda feels like a good spot to buy some again.

Lol, you are not alone, I also had that moment, so from I don't check the price that much as I don't what to jinx it or something.

But lately though, the price is going <$90k, so that could be a bad sign that we are in the bear market already and it starts this year. Not to be negative, but it might be good to reset everything and maybe adapt to the changing market in terms of our investments.

It's almost the end of the month now, so it's obvious that we're not going to have a good price increase for this month and almost flat, same as December 2025.

[tokeweed]

^  Yeah..  It feels like that everybody is just waiting for something bad to happen before getting in with their whole stack...  I mean how many times have we seen it happen now?  I've been following BTC since 2013 and we've seen something bad happen which drops the price by a lot.  Lol.

It's weird because you kinda expect it to happen but there's also something in you that makes you think it won't happen.    And you go with the side that it won't happen then it happens. 

Stay safe out there guys.

[sana54210]

^^ There is a logic behind why people like me who say that we are going to crash even harder. The logic is that in almost every single 4 year period, bitcoin had a bull and bear cycle and for that reason 2026 could be very well be a bear year. In 2017 it peaked, in 2018 it crashed, in 2021 it peaked and in 2022 it crashed and in 2025 it peaked so we assume in 2026 it should crash and that is a logic. Doesn't mean we are right, we could be wrong of course, but at least there is a logic and reason why we believe this.

But when it comes to thinking it will go up, there is no similar thing in history or any pattern that shows this, so the only logic they have is "that's how I feel it will do" and nothing more, which is why ours makes more sense right now.

[Yaunfitda]

^^ There is a logic behind why people like me who say that we are going to crash even harder. The logic is that in almost every single 4 year period, bitcoin had a bull and bear cycle and for that reason 2026 could be very well be a bear year. In 2017 it peaked, in 2018 it crashed, in 2021 it peaked and in 2022 it crashed and in 2025 it peaked so we assume in 2026 it should crash and that is a logic. Doesn't mean we are right, we could be wrong of course, but at least there is a logic and reason why we believe this.

But when it comes to thinking it will go up, there is no similar thing in history or any pattern that shows this, so the only logic they have is "that's how I feel it will do" and nothing more, which is why ours makes more sense right now.

That is the cycle itself, and it could be true that this is the start of the bear market. I would say though that in 2018, as far as I can remember, there are lot good members here who thinks that $50k is possible that year. Nevertheless, after the first quarter, we started to see the start of the massive decline and so it could be the same pattern for this year. Maybe others think that we might still go with that 6 digits, but slowly every month the price continue to decline. And as we can see ~87k and who knows that it could continue to go down till next month until a full blown bear market is already seen. And then investors fully accepted that and then adjust their strategy.

[tokeweed]

^^ There is a logic behind why people like me who say that we are going to crash even harder. The logic is that in almost every single 4 year period, bitcoin had a bull and bear cycle and for that reason 2026 could be very well be a bear year. In 2017 it peaked, in 2018 it crashed, in 2021 it peaked and in 2022 it crashed and in 2025 it peaked so we assume in 2026 it should crash and that is a logic. Doesn't mean we are right, we could be wrong of course, but at least there is a logic and reason why we believe this.

But when it comes to thinking it will go up, there is no similar thing in history or any pattern that shows this, so the only logic they have is "that's how I feel it will do" and nothing more, which is why ours makes more sense right now.

Yup...  I see some people trying to fade the infamous 4 year cycle this time around.  The newer guys tend to do this.  But then again can't really blame guys like me for not wanting to get burned by fading the trends that have happened more than a couple of times in the past now.

Good luck to all the guys who're aggressively buying with their whole stacks or most of it at these ranges.  You guys have balls of steel that I wish I had.  Lolol. 

[Asiska02]

Bitcoin is not looking so transparent in its trend as it has always being in the past, an historical trend was there to guide us but this time around, people think that the historical trend is no more valid for the movement of Bitcoin in this cycle anymore. As for me, I am more of the inclination to the bears, Bitcoin is not looking to go all bullish again this year after how it performed towards the end of last year, it was a clear sign that the bulls are getting over and we should prepare for the bear market.

Historically, we should be in the bear market this year, so it baffles me that some people still have great hope that the market will hit another ATH this year after the lot of resistivity it showed of not being able to break above $100K for a long time now. I sometimes think it is only those that have invested heavily and have not reached their profit target that don’t want a bear season now and are optimistic and sharing the narrative of building confidence in the market that a bull will happen that will rise bitcoin again to reach another ATH.

[Dunamisx]

Well...  Here you go guys.  Here's a simple but a challenging poll to start the year as promised in my December sentiment thread.    The poll will be open for three months but the thread will be open until the end of the year.

I hope this will spur a lot of interesting discussions from you guys.  Our monthly sentiment polls will start in February.  I just want to get this poll up to see what everyone says about 2026 during the first three of months of the year.

From how I saw the market performance earlier this morning, I already knew that it's either the market rises of fall furthermore, if we check the chat and how it has been reacting, we can deduce something similar like this when it go to the stage of taking the decision of either rising of fallen, another thing to consider also is the fact that we are at the close of the month, whereby the market usually fold few days to the end of each month except on some rare occasions that you see it rising, while the starts of a new week or a new month often begins with a market pump

[pooya87]

^^ There is a logic behind why people like me who say that we are going to crash even harder. The logic is that in almost every single 4 year period, bitcoin had a bull and bear cycle and for that reason 2026 could be very well be a bear year. In 2017 it peaked, in 2018 it crashed, in 2021 it peaked and in 2022 it crashed and in 2025 it peaked so we assume in 2026 it should crash and that is a logic. Doesn't mean we are right, we could be wrong of course, but at least there is a logic and reason why we believe this.

But when it comes to thinking it will go up, there is no similar thing in history or any pattern that shows this, so the only logic they have is "that's how I feel it will do" and nothing more, which is why ours makes more sense right now.

The 4-year cycle is a perfectly valid pattern that bitcoin followed for a long time and it would have followed it to the T if the global economy has not been disrupted significantly over the past couple of years (ever since the cycle pattern broke).

The first being 2020 where the global pandemic (COVID19) caused a global recession and prevented the bitcoin rally to end like previous times in a massive ATH and a bubble that would have burst marking the end of the cycle and starting the next.

The second was in 2022 when the world was slowly recovering from the recession I mentioned that war broke out between NATO and Russia. Something that started another major recession and prevented bitcoin rally from finishing like last time!

This new pattern of chaos-recession-inflation-more chaos has been the new world ever since 2022 and things are getting more chaotic with US regime destabilizing the whole world, attacking Europeans, Canada, South Americans, Asians, Africans,... Just past week alone the pedophile in White House threatened to carry out strikes in oil-rich Iran to which Iran promised deadly and swift retaliatory strikes.
Consequently dollar dumped, gold went up roughly 10% to $5400, oil up 18% to $70+ while bitcoin dropped 10% to $83000 all in one week.

As long as this destabilization strategy exists, the markets will continue to behave unpredictably and there won't be any bitcoin's 4-year cycles or any other kind of cycle or pattern that we can predict.

[arwin100]

^^ There is a logic behind why people like me who say that we are going to crash even harder. The logic is that in almost every single 4 year period, bitcoin had a bull and bear cycle and for that reason 2026 could be very well be a bear year. In 2017 it peaked, in 2018 it crashed, in 2021 it peaked and in 2022 it crashed and in 2025 it peaked so we assume in 2026 it should crash and that is a logic. Doesn't mean we are right, we could be wrong of course, but at least there is a logic and reason why we believe this.

But when it comes to thinking it will go up, there is no similar thing in history or any pattern that shows this, so the only logic they have is "that's how I feel it will do" and nothing more, which is why ours makes more sense right now.

The 4-year cycle is a perfectly valid pattern that bitcoin followed for a long time and it would have followed it to the T if the global economy has not been disrupted significantly over the past couple of years (ever since the cycle pattern broke).

The first being 2020 where the global pandemic (COVID19) caused a global recession and prevented the bitcoin rally to end like previous times in a massive ATH and a bubble that would have burst marking the end of the cycle and starting the next.

The second was in 2022 when the world was slowly recovering from the recession I mentioned that war broke out between NATO and Russia. Something that started another major recession and prevented bitcoin rally from finishing like last time!

This new pattern of chaos-recession-inflation-more chaos has been the new world ever since 2022 and things are getting more chaotic with US regime destabilizing the whole world, attacking Europeans, Canada, South Americans, Asians, Africans,... Just past week alone the pedophile in White House threatened to carry out strikes in oil-rich Iran to which Iran promised deadly and swift retaliatory strikes.
Consequently dollar dumped, gold went up roughly 10% to $5400, oil up 18% to $70+ while bitcoin dropped 10% to $83000 all in one week.

As long as this destabilization strategy exists, the markets will continue to behave unpredictably and there won't be any bitcoin's 4-year cycles or any other kind of cycle or pattern that we can predict.

Those global crisis like Covid19 happened on those years and the break out of war in year 2022 really affect the market and somehow made the market cycle hard to track. That's why now that 4 year cycle growth of Bitcoin became more tendency than its looks like guarantee just like what we have seen for past few years, which help it created surge of demand and price rallies. Wars, global recession and other trouble slowly change its pattern.

Instead saying that the cycle is broken maybe best to say is over ruled by those macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin would provably still have a reaction on halving, but for sure not it will be tied on geopolitical risk since maybe this situation will be look up first by investors and possible global liquidity.

So let's see how big the changes will come with it and if we can see a interesting movement of Bitcoin or it became a technical ones due to those factors that can affect its possible movement or growth.

[STT]

Its not the negative event in BTC that is probably the reason for a sell, its the bigger sell in the market.  People will cash out a Bitcoin position to fund their account positions elsewhere in the market, in some cases for something they cannot sell but is held on leverage perhaps.
  

Today was a good day for the bears, a good sell from the 50 day average just when I was thinking crossing back and forth was lining it up  not down.
    Im looking at dollar index and still remain BTC bullish as DXY is lacking strength & that is the main opponent to take down BTC.   Over 2026, its long term enough to make me think we resolve positively relative to this price but the ATH question is very debatable and I'm 50/50 on that possibility, even if I lean towards positive resolution eventually.