BTC Sentiment Poll for 2026

[asriloni]

I'm not delusional enough to vote the new ATH for Bitcoin this year, so i vote no. Chart clearly shows bearish penant combined with head and shoulder. So i expect the entire year is gonna be baerish for Bitcoin. A small bounce may happen, but just to discover another high-low.

It most probably bitcoin can go 50k - 60k range if it's happening. However, i'm also thiking to anticipate in the worst scenario in case Strategy mNAV will be far lower than 1.10, which force them to dump their bitcoin.  

Just always be careful when holding crypto atm.  

[bbc.reporter]

@asriloni. Cryptonews media has also begun to publish similar articles that the hopium might be over heheheh. Does this imply that they are wrong and this might be the bottom or are they correct on their assessment?

It was headshaking when there were many people who were very much triggered when I began to mention that there will be a bubble pop on the bitcoin market since July 2025.



Bitcoin's 'hopium' for bulls may be over and this weekend's slide could be just the beginning

Bitcoin’s price sank sharply over the weekend, sliding below $78,000 — its lowest level since April — as profit-taking collided with thinning liquidity and a scarcity of fresh buyers.

Traders told CoinDesk that a rally once backed by corporate demand, particularly from Strategy’s (MSTR) bitcoin purchases, has run out of steam, leaving markets vulnerable to forced selling and derivative liquidations.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/01/bitcoin-s-hopium-for-bulls-may-be-over-and-this-weekend-s-slide-could-be-just-the-beginning

[tokeweed]

^^ There is a logic behind why people like me who say that we are going to crash even harder. The logic is that in almost every single 4 year period, bitcoin had a bull and bear cycle and for that reason 2026 could be very well be a bear year. In 2017 it peaked, in 2018 it crashed, in 2021 it peaked and in 2022 it crashed and in 2025 it peaked so we assume in 2026 it should crash and that is a logic. Doesn't mean we are right, we could be wrong of course, but at least there is a logic and reason why we believe this.

But when it comes to thinking it will go up, there is no similar thing in history or any pattern that shows this, so the only logic they have is "that's how I feel it will do" and nothing more, which is why ours makes more sense right now.

The 4-year cycle is a perfectly valid pattern that bitcoin followed for a long time and it would have followed it to the T if the global economy has not been disrupted significantly over the past couple of years (ever since the cycle pattern broke).

The first being 2020 where the global pandemic (COVID19) caused a global recession and prevented the bitcoin rally to end like previous times in a massive ATH and a bubble that would have burst marking the end of the cycle and starting the next.

The second was in 2022 when the world was slowly recovering from the recession I mentioned that war broke out between NATO and Russia. Something that started another major recession and prevented bitcoin rally from finishing like last time!

This new pattern of chaos-recession-inflation-more chaos has been the new world ever since 2022 and things are getting more chaotic with US regime destabilizing the whole world, attacking Europeans, Canada, South Americans, Asians, Africans,... Just past week alone the pedophile in White House threatened to carry out strikes in oil-rich Iran to which Iran promised deadly and swift retaliatory strikes.
Consequently dollar dumped, gold went up roughly 10% to $5400, oil up 18% to $70+ while bitcoin dropped 10% to $83000 all in one week.

As long as this destabilization strategy exists, the markets will continue to behave unpredictably and there won't be any bitcoin's 4-year cycles or any other kind of cycle or pattern that we can predict.

What do you mean?  Volatility may have gone down a bit but just from looking at the monthly chart and looking at the dates of the halvings, the 4 year cycle looks like it's still mostly there give or take a few weeks from the bottom to the top and the top to the bottom.

And with BTC's market cap in the trillions now, it also means it needs a way more USD, fiat money to make it move like it used to like it was under 10 billion market cap. 

[tokeweed]

It's now March...  To the 16 guys who voted that we'll see an all time high this year, do you guys feel the same or were you guys just clicking buttons? 

But yeah, the minute I make fun of those guys is prolly the time BTC goes super nova to all time high.  Lolol.  I'll gladly take one for the  team if it really happens. 

Anyway, let's get more votes in.

[BALIK]

It's now March...  To the 16 guys who voted that we'll see an all time high this year, do you guys feel the same or were you guys just clicking buttons? 

But yeah, the minute I make fun of those guys is prolly the time BTC goes super nova to all time high.  Lolol.  I'll gladly take one for the  team if it really happens. 

Anyway, let's get more votes in.

You opened this thread and poll on January 1st, and I just checked again, the price of Bitcoin was over $86k at that time. At one point, it even reached $97k and BTC held its price quite well throughout January. Therefore, it is not surprising that some people remain optimistic and have not accepted that the market has entered a bear market.

However, the situation is different now, and if there were a chance to vote again. I do not think they are still optimistic and believe that Bitcoin will reach a new alltime high this year.

[tokeweed]

^  It's now mid April and the poll is gonna be locked prolly at the end of May.    If you were given a chance to vote again which one would it be?

Some people at Twitter seem like they're starting to like the idea that BTC could trend back up to an all time high this year...

Dunno tho.  What do you guys think?

[DanWalker]

^  It's now mid April and the poll is gonna be locked prolly at the end of May.    If you were given a chance to vote again which one would it be?

Some people at Twitter seem like they're starting to like the idea that BTC could trend back up to an all time high this year...

Dunno tho.  What do you guys think?

There is nothing wrong with voting again and having people change their choice. Because market is inherently volatile, and we need to stay flexible and adjust based on what is happening in the present.
It can be said that market has become less gloomy compared to the first 3 month of the year, with Bitcoin maintaining above $70k despite geopolitical turmoil.

However, I voted no earlier and I dont want to change my mind. I still maintain that the 4 year cycle is repeating itself.

[Dave1]

^  It's now mid April and the poll is gonna be locked prolly at the end of May.    If you were given a chance to vote again which one would it be?

Some people at Twitter seem like they're starting to like the idea that BTC could trend back up to an all time high this year...

Dunno tho.  What do you guys think?

There is nothing wrong with voting again and having people change their choice. Because market is inherently volatile, and we need to stay flexible and adjust based on what is happening in the present.
It can be said that market has become less gloomy compared to the first 3 month of the year, with Bitcoin maintaining above $70k despite geopolitical turmoil.

However, I voted no earlier and I dont want to change my mind. I still maintain that the 4 year cycle is repeating itself.

Same here, I still maintain that the 4 year cycle will still be in effect. Even though that this month is really very good and seeing the price going up to $75k++, we can't still discount the fact that we are in the bear cycle, and there will be months in this cycle that we might see some strong showing, but at the end of it, will be bear market and the price will continue to decline.

And so it's like the market is giving us false hope, or a bear trap. Maybe there are some who knows how to handle it. But there will be newbies who might see this as a good indication that we are out of the bear. But then when the price goes on a downward spiral, they might question the whole market itself. The only answer it that we are very volatile and that we are in the bear market still.

[tokeweed]

I just got reminded of this thread...    I'm gonna lock the poll in a couple of days, I think 6 months is ample time for a price prediction for the year.

I think the 16 people who voted yes that there's gonna be an all time high this year will surely vote no if they were to vote again.

Anyway, if you guys look at the monthly chart like I do, you'd also wonder at what price range will BTC end up on if we got a couple more red monthly candles?

[Akbarkoe]

I just got reminded of this thread...    I'm gonna lock the poll in a couple of days, I think 6 months is ample time for a price prediction for the year.

I think the 16 people who voted yes that there's gonna be an all time high this year will surely vote no if they were to vote again.

Anyway, if you guys look at the monthly chart like I do, you'd also wonder at what price range will BTC end up on if we got a couple more red monthly candles?

Half a semester is enough for that, 25 people said no and 16 people said yes, those who said no will be very confident given the current market situation and doubt those who answered yes to the poll because the market is now showing a deeper decline.
If the moon candle is red again maybe we will touch $50k-$53k this level is strong enough to reverse the bounce in the next month if the support is strong, but if it doesn't hold we will fall deeper than that, I really hope it is still very strong and keeps bitcoin above $56k so that we don't fall too far.

[STT]

Oh no its bold for Yes for me so I have to have voted yes, I guess on the basis of volatility I thought it quite possible to occur.

However, the situation is different now,

The price is quite different and the length we have been in this region of low prices, sentiment is quite different but I dont see the situation must be entirely different.    Price is not how judgement should be made really, for momentum gains its most relevant perhaps but the market was already off its momentum at Jan start.  So question now is how much really changed, barring price which shouldn't be leading you by the nose in every judgement you make not if you want real accuracy or insight to future pricing imo.

[pawel7777]

Six months into the 2026 (the time flies like crazy) and it's clear that there's no way we can hope for a new ATH anytime soon.
2026 is a Bear Year, and that's OK, we can use this time to accumulate and DCA. The time to sell was at the end of 2025, many missed the mark as the price was not as high as they were hoping for, and because some of the BTC peak indicators (e.g. CBBI) did not go as high as in the previous cycles, suggesting we still had some room to go up, but we didn't.

At this stage, the only way Bitcoin could break to a new ATH in 2026 would be a total collapse of the US dollar.

[cyberninja2]

Same here, I still maintain that the 4 year cycle will still be in effect. Even though that this month is really very good and seeing the price going up to $75k++, we can't still discount the fact that we are in the bear cycle, and there will be months in this cycle that we might see some strong showing, but at the end of it, will be bear market and the price will continue to decline.

That's true, because there have been several weeks in the cycle where the price has held at $75,000. This means that for the next few months the market price could stabilize at the level we mentioned earlier. Market prices will always fluctuate and the market price will not go as we desire. Therefore I believe the right time is to continue with the activities we are currently undertaking. When we see results it's better to make purchases as the market price strongly supports us in terms of increasing our BTC holdings for our future. If we don't seize this opportunity I think it could be a long wait for another price drop like the one we're experiencing now.

[summonerrk]

A bit of positivity: Bitcoin typically shows an average gain of 7.6% in July, making it one of the strongest months since the typically weaker June, which saw a return of -1.4%, according to data. This trend has been observed even during down years. For example, Bitcoin rose 21% in July 2018 and over 16% in July 2022.
More recently, Bitcoin rose 22% in 2024 and 8% in July 2025, which could positively impact its performance if seasonality kicks in. A separate seasonality chart for the midterm election year shows that Bitcoin averaged 10% growth during the month, the highest monthly gain in such years.

[jcojci]

Six months is not too long, we will see that soon. Although I am not sure if Bitcoin will gets another ATH by December 31, 2026, I am trying to be positive and have a big hope we will see another ATH. But I agree that this time we can running accumulation and DCA while the price down below $60,000 so if the price really increase at December more than the last ATH, we can make a big profit at that time. What I suspicion is the last ATH can repeat and triggers to the next highest ATH soon before the bear really comes and drop the price.

[CryptoBuds]

If we don't seize this opportunity I think it could be a long wait for another price drop like the one we're experiencing now.

Markets have their cycles, and that means there will be more bear market in the future. However, we need to keep in mind that after each cycle, Bitcoin tends to set a higher bottom than the previous one. That means if the current price is the bottom or close to it, this could very well be the last chance to buy Bitcoin under $60k.

Once another cycle begins and the next bear market arrives, the bottom will most likely be much higher than the current one, and opportunities to buy at such low prices may no longer exist. So make the most of this opportunity if you do not want to look back with regret in the future.

[tokeweed]

Oh no its bold for Yes for me so I have to have voted yes, I guess on the basis of volatility I thought it quite possible to occur.

However, the situation is different now,

The price is quite different and the length we have been in this region of low prices, sentiment is quite different but I dont see the situation must be entirely different.    Price is not how judgement should be made really, for momentum gains its most relevant perhaps but the market was already off its momentum at Jan start.  So question now is how much really changed, barring price which shouldn't be leading you by the nose in every judgement you make not if you want real accuracy or insight to future pricing imo.

Whoa whoa whoa...  Just based on volatility, you think there gonna be an all time high this year?  Lmfao.  I mean sure if it's all upside volatility.  But how about the downside one?  I mean you've been here for as long as me...  Surely you already know we'll see it go down more than it goes up.

But if it does trend up to another all time high, I think that'd be funny as a lot of people will be caught offside.

[Zanab247]

Six months is not too long, we will see that soon. Although I am not sure if Bitcoin will gets another ATH by December 31, 2026, I am trying to be positive and have a big hope we will see another ATH. But I agree that this time we can running accumulation and DCA while the price down below $60,000 so if the price really increase at December more than the last ATH, we can make a big profit at that time. What I suspicion is the last ATH can repeat and triggers to the next highest ATH soon before the bear really comes and drop the price.

What am observing from BTC movement, I guess it will going to be long bear season that will make many people think that BTC will disappear from the market, which is not going to be true. I can still remember when the price dump to enter $45k  that made some to give up on BTC, but since BTC started pumping over some years till now, it was massive profits to BTC hodlers.

I know people have saved money from this long bull market that is about to leave the market completely soon, and they will start using half of the money to start buying BTC, because this is the season of accumulating BTC.