Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[Mahiyammahi]

This is the future of betting right ? For now I consider it as just random funny bets as a friend of mine had a bet a few days ago on how many tweets will Elon Musk do on that certain day. Crazy , right ? The betting markets you will se on polymarket are super crazy and funny or not , after Romanian elections . the polymarket has been fully banned in Romania and only with VPN you will able to access it. 

Polymarket similar to Futuur if you know about that site. They are prediction site with so many predictions you can bet. That is just fun for those people who bet on that prediction. Some people are making money from the prediction.

I don't know about the used of VPN. You can ask supports to have a clear answers so you can visit the site and place your bet.

I like the idea of how betting on polymarket works . Literary we can bet in everything there is.  But the thing is with time, some bets open even a year's before the result. Don't you think this is much lengthy time. Who gets early always gets better odds. When it closer to the final date , ods are getting lower and eventually who place bets in late there's nothing to grab.

Wondering if gambler's will enjoy this types of betting or rather they would stick traditional Sports betting .

[Cookdata]

I like the idea of how betting on polymarket works . Literary we can bet in everything there is.  But the thing is with time, some bets open even a year's before the result. Don't you think this is much lengthy time. Who gets early always gets better odds. When it closer to the final date , ods are getting lower and eventually who place bets in late there's nothing to grab.

Wondering if gambler's will enjoy this types of betting or rather they would stick traditional Sports betting .

This is why Portugal ask them to pack up and leave their country out of any bet especially the political ones. I love the fact that you can bet virtually on any speculation but where do we draw the line please? Why bet on things like war, death and politics in general. When this platform first came to my attention was during the US election, I do didn't bet because I wasn't too sure but I still enjoy the live bet, aside the money people were making it was fun to watch, now it's pure manipulation.

If we are going to make money gambling, there are more event happening around the world to make money. Let's not act like humanity means nothing to us any more and I don't want to pick side whether it's Ukraine that is affected, be it Russia that is doing the strike or the democracy of Iran, as money is been made from predictions, there are thousands of people losing life's, there are thousands of people that are becoming homeless, I don't want it restricted but let be fair and kind to each other.

[letteredhub]

I like the idea of how betting on polymarket works . Literary we can bet in everything there is.  But the thing is with time, some bets open even a year's before the result. Don't you think this is much lengthy time. Who gets early always gets better odds. When it closer to the final date , ods are getting lower and eventually who place bets in late there's nothing to grab.

Wondering if gambler's will enjoy this types of betting or rather they would stick traditional Sports betting .

Aside the lengthy time associated with making predictions of events on polymarket I don't find any much difference in the area of the odds reduction as the time of event gets closer. It's something that those of us who bets on sports games in the conventional gambling platforms do experience too. As the games time get closer to kickoff time the odds begin to change, mostly for the most favourite potential outcome the odd get reduced.

[Charles-Tim]

I like the idea of how betting on polymarket works . Literary we can bet in everything there is.  But the thing is with time, some bets open even a year's before the result. Don't you think this is much lengthy time. Who gets early always gets better odds. When it closer to the final date , ods are getting lower and eventually who place bets in late there's nothing to grab.

Wondering if gambler's will enjoy this types of betting or rather they would stick traditional Sports betting .

Aside the lengthy time associated with making predictions of events on polymarket I don't find any much difference in the area of the odds reduction as the time of event gets closer. It's something that those of us who bets on sports games in the conventional gambling platforms do experience too. As the games time get closer to kickoff time the odds begin to change, mostly for the most favourite potential outcome the odd get reduced.

I have not been a fan of Polymarket, probably because I have not bet in such market before. What that is discouraging me is how people that owns them are saying they are not gambling site but they are trading. So I do not know how it works.

If what Mahiyammahiis saying is true, what he is implying is totally different from what you are implying. If a match is about to begin, the odds will not really change on the traditional market, but what Mahiyammahi posted is that the odd will really change.

I read that on prediction markets, some insiders and people with big amount of money do manipulate.

[letteredhub]

Aside the lengthy time associated with making predictions of events on polymarket I don't find any much difference in the area of the odds reduction as the time of event gets closer. It's something that those of us who bets on sports games in the conventional gambling platforms do experience too. As the games time get closer to kickoff time the odds begin to change, mostly for the most favourite potential outcome the odd get reduced.

I have not been a fan of Polymarket, probably because I have not bet in such market before. What that is discouraging me is how people that owns them are saying they are not gambling site but they are trading. So I do not know how it works.

What are they saying! A platform that allows users to bet on almost anything eventful ranging from politics, economics to sports etc. what can we call that if not what it is. Polymarket is just another form of gambling wrapped in different design.

If what Mahiyammahiis saying is true, what he is implying is totally different from what you are implying. If a match is about to begin, the odds will not really change on the traditional market, but what Mahiyammahi posted is that the odd will really change.

When you say "not really" then it means the odds change but not as that of polymarket
The odds for conventional sport market does change actually. It may not have same changes as polymarket odds but we can't say they don't change at all.

 

I read that on prediction markets, some insiders and people with big amount of money do manipulate.

Such rumours may not be baseless.

[Charles-Tim]

If what Mahiyammahiis saying is true, what he is implying is totally different from what you are implying. If a match is about to begin, the odds will not really change on the traditional market, but what Mahiyammahi posted is that the odd will really change.

When you say "not really" then it means the odds change but not as that of polymarket
The odds for conventional sport market does change actually. It may not have same changes as polymarket odds but we can't say they don't change at all.

 

I read that on prediction markets, some insiders and people with big amount of money do manipulate.

Such rumours may not be baseless.

Just like I have posted before, I do not know much about prediction markets, and also neither do you know much about them. Although, I have a hint about how they work.

Assuming someone created a market A as an example, people will buy the shares of the market A starting from $0. But as more people are buying it, the price will start to increase from $0 to $1. When the outcome is getting certain that it will occur, the shares that people will be buying will be almost close to $1 already which will make the late buyers not to make money like the early buyers. What the person posted is very true.

[internetional]

I read today that during drops in BTC and XRP prices, one Polymarket user was buying "UP" positions on short-term markets - clearly losing ones - and doing so shortly before expiration. Then he briefly influenced the spot price of the asset via the futures market on Binance using massive leverage, which turned out to be enough to get the desired outcome. In the end, he made $233,000 in two days.

Bets on price increases and decreases exist in many casinos. It's interesting why this player didn't go to some casino that positions itself as provably fair, but instead chose an onchain platform, where all his actions are now visible to everyone, making it unlikely that he'll be able to quietly continue arbitraging.

[Unsoldier]

I read today that during drops in BTC and XRP prices, one Polymarket user was buying "UP" positions on short-term markets - clearly losing ones - and doing so shortly before expiration. Then he briefly influenced the spot price of the asset via the futures market on Binance using massive leverage, which turned out to be enough to get the desired outcome. In the end, he made $233,000 in two days.

Bets on price increases and decreases exist in many casinos. It's interesting why this player didn't go to some casino that positions itself as provably fair, but instead chose an onchain platform, where all his actions are now visible to everyone, making it unlikely that he'll be able to quietly continue arbitraging.

The user's key motive, however, was profit. If there's a technical vulnerability (an oracle, low liquidity) and a chance to earn $233k in two days, blockchain transparency isn't a barrier for them. This isn't a casino with a house edge, but an exploit of a financial mechanism. The publicity merely documents a successful attack, encouraging others to look for similar vulnerabilities. For such a trader, on-chain pseudonymity is more important than complete secrecy.

[DrBeer]

It is marketed as a decentralized prediction website, but it is not. You get that clearly when you sign up and you are giving addresses generated for you. There is an option to export the private keys on this address but if you did not generate it yourself it is not your keys and if it is not, the platform is not decentralized.

The way your title is worded and also the way the OP begins, one would easily think this is an official ANN for polymarket. You can include there that it is an inquiry.

- Jay -

In July, Polymarket acquired QCEX,
 a prediction market and clearing house, and in September, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially allowed the company to return to the US market after a three-year ban for operating without proper registration." Tell me, can a resource that operates under strict regulatory rules be truly decentralized?
 I understand that you are applying this term to this platform, thinking that it is analogous to DEX, where there is no centralization, control, or KYC ? Probably, this term is used here purely in a technological sense, meaning that WEB-3 technologies are used for transactions, but nothing more!
PS I like the site itself, I use it!

[Hispo]

Earlier I have taking a look at the political section of Polymarket and it seems they have got some bets which have directky to do with the situation concerning ICE on the United States and the way the Trump administration has been handling ilegal immigration in the country.

Regardless of what one thinks on the immigration on the United States, these kinds of bets could come as devious, because it would imply profiting from the disgrace of others. In a similar matter there are bets which touch directly the possible United States involvement in the Iranian crisis.

[michellee]

I like the idea of how betting on polymarket works . Literary we can bet in everything there is.  But the thing is with time, some bets open even a year's before the result. Don't you think this is much lengthy time. Who gets early always gets better odds. When it closer to the final date , ods are getting lower and eventually who place bets in late there's nothing to grab.

Wondering if gambler's will enjoy this types of betting or rather they would stick traditional Sports betting .

Yes, that is too long to wait for the results. I am not sure how many people will bet and wait but maybe most of them will forget it. If they are considers that is lost money that can happens anytime, they do not thinks much and just leaves it with hesitate.

Some people will enjoy this types of betting but other people may stick traditional sports betting. But if you just think about the fun, you can place any bets you wants and leave that by gamble with others.

I am not yet try to bet for the future but maybe later.

[internetional]

You get that clearly when you sign up and you are giving addresses generated for you. There is an option to export the private keys on this address but if you did not generate it yourself it is not your keys

The audit report for Polymarket's Proxy Wallet Factories smart contracts indicates that when users connect using an external wallet like MetaMask, the platform owners technically cannot know the user's private key because the key never leaves the user's browser/plugin.
https://reports.chainsecurity.com/Polymarket/ChainSecurity_Polymarket_ProxyWalletFactories_Audit.pdf

[joeperry]

Yes, that is too long to wait for the results. I am not sure how many people will bet and wait but maybe most of them will forget it. If they are considers that is lost money that can happens anytime, they do not thinks much and just leaves it with hesitate.

Some people will enjoy this types of betting but other people may stick traditional sports betting. But if you just think about the fun, you can place any bets you wants and leave that by gamble with others.

Most of the bettors of those market were big gamblers and they don't have problem placing huge amount in that bet (I forgot that you can withdraw it anytime lol). It's actually a lot of good markets there especially in politics but and I agree with you it is really a long time for a bet, I usually stick with Sports betting and from time to time place a small bet to 15m crypto price up or down. Anyway, I've been playing on Polymarket for quite some time now and I read alot of people that says you can create your own market, does anyone know how to create my own market (I'm not really going to create but I'm just curious how it works).

[Haunebu]

Earlier I have taking a look at the political section of Polymarket and it seems they have got some bets which have directky to do with the situation concerning ICE on the United States and the way the Trump administration has been handling ilegal immigration in the country.

Regardless of what one thinks on the immigration on the United States, these kinds of bets could come as devious, because it would imply profiting from the disgrace of others. In a similar matter there are bets which touch directly the possible United States involvement in the Iranian crisis.

This is very common stuff on prediction platforms like Polymarket where they would market just about anything with money as the incentive. It all comes down to money there without any morals involved basically. Some people are fine with that while some aren't.

It's a sensitive topic basically. Personally, I tend to choose markets like sports etc which don't make a mockery of human lives.

[impulse709]

Yes, that is too long to wait for the results. I am not sure how many people will bet and wait but maybe most of them will forget it. If they are considers that is lost money that can happens anytime, they do not thinks much and just leaves it with hesitate.

Some people will enjoy this types of betting but other people may stick traditional sports betting. But if you just think about the fun, you can place any bets you wants and leave that by gamble with others.

Most of the bettors of those market were big gamblers and they don't have problem placing huge amount in that bet (I forgot that you can withdraw it anytime lol). It's actually a lot of good markets there especially in politics but and I agree with you it is really a long time for a bet, I usually stick with Sports betting and from time to time place a small bet to 15m crypto price up or down. Anyway, I've been playing on Polymarket for quite some time now and I read alot of people that says you can create your own market, does anyone know how to create my own market (I'm not really going to create but I'm just curious how it works).

The high wait time is certainly a weakness of Polymarket, and I do concur that most bettors will likely consider that as temporarily lost money and mind over it. This is the reason why patient or high-stakes gamblers seem to be attracted more to these markets particularly politics and long-term events. The old fashioned sport betting is still more appealing due to quicker outcomes. Nonetheless, the possibility of selling shares and thus quitting any bet is a major advantage. I primarily bet on sports as well, and I make the occasional small betting of crypto prices. Developing markets will be interesting, but it is not entirely open yet.

[Hispo]

Earlier I have taking a look at the political section of Polymarket and it seems they have got some bets which have directky to do with the situation concerning ICE on the United States and the way the Trump administration has been handling ilegal immigration in the country.

Regardless of what one thinks on the immigration on the United States, these kinds of bets could come as devious, because it would imply profiting from the disgrace of others. In a similar matter there are bets which touch directly the possible United States involvement in the Iranian crisis.

This is very common stuff on prediction platforms like Polymarket where they would market just about anything with money as the incentive. It all comes down to money there without any morals involved basically. Some people are fine with that while some aren't.

It's a sensitive topic basically. Personally, I tend to choose markets like sports etc which don't make a mockery of human lives.

Also, it catches my attention how these kind of markets could be easily used by people with privileged information to profit off that information.
There could be some military people or family of military operatives who could bet heavily on a strike against Iran.

Even people in the highest ranks of ICE or federal goverment could abuse of their information on what ICE could do next.

It is something which those in sport betting do not need to get worried about.

[Lakai01]

Also, it catches my attention how these kind of markets could be easily used by people with privileged information to profit off that information.
There could be some military people or family of military operatives who could bet heavily on a strike against Iran.

This applies not only to Polymarket, but also to the traditional stock market and, of course, to crypto-based markets such as Bitcoin or altcoins. There, too, price slumps (or surges) can often be seen before the relevant information has even been made public. The stock market is subject to somewhat stricter controls, and anyone who wants to capitalize on information they have obtained must be careful not to be accused of insider trading, but even there, there are of course many ways and means to get around this.

So, unfortunately, we simply have to assume that all markets are manipulated.

[boltz]

This might be the future of betting on all categories right ? from sports to events , politics , weather and a lot of random markets that are being opened daily so yea ...Polymarket might be the future of gambling or the HOUSE of gambling in the future.

However , like any other markets , it tends to be fully manipulated and polymarket is full of manipulation at a very high level. For me , this is enough to stay away ..at least for now.

[bitmover]

I think the title of this thread is misleading.

Usually all topics here are made by representatives of the service.

I think adding something like [unofficial] in the title would be better

[Hispo]

Also, it catches my attention how these kind of markets could be easily used by people with privileged information to profit off that information.
There could be some military people or family of military operatives who could bet heavily on a strike against Iran.

This applies not only to Polymarket, but also to the traditional stock market and, of course, to crypto-based markets such as Bitcoin or altcoins. There, too, price slumps (or surges) can often be seen before the relevant information has even been made public. The stock market is subject to somewhat stricter controls, and anyone who wants to capitalize on information they have obtained must be careful not to be accused of insider trading, but even there, there are of course many ways and means to get around this.

So, unfortunately, we simply have to assume that all markets are manipulated.

I don't think all markets are manipulated, because there are markets which are very difficult to manipulate and are subjected to much chaos and entropy, that is the case of betting of major football leagues.

What it picks my attention is how Trump or people in the family of Trump could easily profit from Polymarket, considering how many markets there are on that webpage about Trump and what he could or not do in a determined time window.

In those instances, there is a very high chance of market manipulation.