Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[Lakai01]

I don't think all markets are manipulated, because there are markets which are very difficult to manipulate and are subjected to much chaos and entropy, that is the case of betting of major football leagues.

You only need to look at yesterday's silver and gold prices. They collapsed almost simultaneously, wiping billions of USD from both markets. All it takes is insider information (e.g., from the circle of presidents whose announcements actually have an impact on world politics) to make enormous profits. I doubt that this is not being exploited.

The same applies to major soccer leagues, of course. There has been more than enough evidence in the past that these are manipulated, for example through bribery of referees or players. 

[Haunebu]

This might be the future of betting on all categories right ? from sports to events , politics , weather and a lot of random markets that are being opened daily so yea ...Polymarket might be the future of gambling or the HOUSE of gambling in the future.

However , like any other markets , it tends to be fully manipulated and polymarket is full of manipulation at a very high level. For me , this is enough to stay away ..at least for now.

It is not fully manipulated though. If it were, the platform would have shut down a long time ago. Only certain markets like prediction markets are subject to heavy manipulation while markets such as sports cannot be manipulated easily at all.

If you want to avoid manipulation risk on Polymarket, just stick to sports betting and stick to high liquidity markets like the moneyline markets.

[salad daging]

However , like any other markets , it tends to be fully manipulated and polymarket is full of manipulation at a very high level. For me , this is enough to stay away ..at least for now.

There are always opinions that Polymarket is easy to manipulate, especially for those who are close to the government, it is easy to get inside information, who say this is not manipulated because Polymarket is a fair prediction site. I think people like to bet on Polymarket so the betting hype here continues to increase in volume.

There is one user on Polymarket with only 2 weeks less he can pocket a profit of almost $300K, imagine in this short time? Is he really good at guessing or does he have an insider?
https://polymarket.com/@a4385

Maybe betting on polymarket also requires skill?

[bitmover]

There is one user on Polymarket with only 2 weeks less he can pocket a profit of almost $300K, imagine in this short time? Is he really good at guessing or does he have an insider?
https://polymarket.com/@a4385

Maybe betting on polymarket also requires skill?

I was impressed by this user. Wtf !
The guy won basically all his bets so far, and those were most of them "up or down" price changes!

What a lucky son of bit@#!!

This is not insider info... cant be. Nobody controla btc price.

[Russlenat]

This is not insider info... cant be. Nobody controla btc price.

And it’s not just Bitcoin either, there are altcoins involved and even sports bets. So yeah, you’re right, there’s no way this can be manipulated that easily, the guy is either really good or just one of those lucky ones.

That’s already one month of profit. If this keeps going for another month, then you can safely say the user actually knows what he’s doing, at that point Poly would basically be his playground for making easy money. 

[arwin100]

There is one user on Polymarket with only 2 weeks less he can pocket a profit of almost $300K, imagine in this short time? Is he really good at guessing or does he have an insider?
https://polymarket.com/@a4385

Maybe betting on polymarket also requires skill?

I was impressed by this user. Wtf !
The guy won basically all his bets so far, and those were most of them "up or down" price changes!

What a lucky son of bit@#!!

This is not insider info... cant be. Nobody controla btc price.

Provably it is, since its hard to get an accurate insights on crypto since no one can predict the possible price movement of those coins.

So this is huge luck on the side of player and he win all of his bets, maybe it may require some little skills since who know that bettor know how to read the charts. But for sure this is just luck and its just coincidence that he win all of his bets made.

So I doubt he have insider info on crypto bets, but if he place bet on sports maybe we can assume that he have.

[Sanitough]

So I doubt he have insider info on crypto bets, but if he place bet on sports maybe we can assume that he have.

I don’t think we can really call it insider information, but it is possible that someone could move the market. We’ve seen similar accusations before, like the news about Eric Trump being accused of benefiting from announcements made by the president. Being that close, it’s easy to see how someone could take advantage of those situations, cashing in ahead of announcements because the market reaction is often predictable, whether it’s a strong move up or a drop.

It doesn’t always mean insider trading in the strict sense, but the advantage is clearly there, and that’s what makes people question it.

[UmerIdrees]

I am not a representative of the platform. I am just opening this thread to get answers to my questions. The following information is based on what I found in public sources.

Yes, but given the way this thread is opened, especially the title of the thread I mean,  it will serve as an ANN thread for PolyMarket.  

I was thinking why polymarket didn't opened the ANN thread here, not that they aren't aware of the bitcointalk and its active gambling section and signature compaigns promotions but more likely they are already too big platfrom and may not need any further promotions  

[Hispo]

...

This is not insider info... cant be. Nobody controla btc price.

Welp. To some extent the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other assets can be controlled by those who have a significant amount of the current supply on their hands, whales can set orders on exchanges, the so called red and green walls, in order to manipulate the price of a Bitcoin, prompting people to sell or buy Bitcoin.

There are several videos on YouTube about it, on how whales make use of their holdings to manipulate and influence on the market so they can win money in the long term, those case of Polymarket would be just another tool on their tool set for them to capitalize their influence.

[NotATether]

Welp. To some extent the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other assets can be controlled by those who have a significant amount of the current supply on their hands, whales can set orders on exchanges, the so called red and green walls, in order to manipulate the price of a Bitcoin, prompting people to sell or buy Bitcoin.

There aren't many bots on this platform. But that's down to the relative obscurity of Polymarket relative to things like exchanges. Major players haven't caught on yet.

Personally, I am trying to design a bot, this is the opportunity for early builders to get something form this platform before it's too late and becomes institutionalized like crypto.

[salad daging]

There is one user on Polymarket with only 2 weeks less he can pocket a profit of almost $300K, imagine in this short time? Is he really good at guessing or does he have an insider?
https://polymarket.com/@a4385

Maybe betting on polymarket also requires skill?

I was impressed by this user. Wtf !
The guy won basically all his bets so far, and those were most of them "up or down" price changes!

What a lucky son of bit@#!!

This is not insider info... cant be. Nobody controla btc price.

In fact, there are many Polymarket users who can earn much more, as I will share that he made $20K per day in prediction betting on Polymarket.

User: https://polymarket.com/@k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP3R
News on Twitter: https://x.com/Shelpid_WI3M/status/2017333191527260493
Sorry not for any promotion, just want your opinion.

Most of what I see on Twitter they can make hundreds of thousands of dollars in 1 month using the bot they created and then shared it on Twitter, being proud they have succeeded in doing so.

The question is about the bot they shared is a bit suspicious.
Do you think this is like an act of fraud where they give the promise of a good win, or is this penggina too adept at guessing bitcoin predictions up and down?

[NotATether]

In fact, there are many Polymarket users who can earn much more, as I will share that he made $20K per day in prediction betting on Polymarket.

User: https://polymarket.com/@k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP3R
News on Twitter: https://x.com/Shelpid_WI3M/status/2017333191527260493
Sorry not for any promotion, just want your opinion.

Most of what I see on Twitter they can make hundreds of thousands of dollars in 1 month using the bot they created and then shared it on Twitter, being proud they have succeeded in doing so.

The question is about the bot they shared is a bit suspicious.
Do you think this is like an act of fraud where they give the promise of a good win, or is this penggina too adept at guessing bitcoin predictions up and down?

Well from what I understand, everyone has to build their own bots. I would never trust my funds with someone else's bots to be honest.

Also it requires understanding of concepts such as EV and quantitative finance. "Win Rate" is not useful for algorithms since you can win many times with some amount and then take one big loss.

[The Cryptovator]

In fact, there are many Polymarket users who can earn much more, as I will share that he made $20K per day in prediction betting on Polymarket.

Don't trust everything you see over the internet. Try it yourself; earning money from betting sites isn't very easy.

Most of what I see on Twitter they can make hundreds of thousands of dollars in 1 month using the bot they created and then shared it on Twitter, being proud they have succeeded in doing so.

If they succeed really, that's fine. But Sound Bot looks like something wrong to me. If people could earn thousands through bots from betting, then everyone would be millionaires. On the other hand, betting or gambling platforms should have shut down their business when users always become winners.

The question is about the bot they shared is a bit suspicious.
Do you think this is like an act of fraud where they give the promise of a good win, or is this penggina too adept at guessing bitcoin predictions up and down?

Yes, it must be suspicious. It's the kind of sound they want to promote a bot. Imagine you have something that helps you to win big; will you share about this publicly? At least I am not going to do so; rather, I will make money silently. So before trusting such bots, one must need to be careful.

[UmerIdrees]

In fact, there are many Polymarket users who can earn much more, as I will share that he made $20K per day in prediction betting on Polymarket.

Don't trust everything you see over the internet. Try it yourself; earning money from betting sites isn't very easy.

This is very true, never fall for the screenshots of big profits being shared on social media for Polymarket or any other gambling platform. Most of them are fake or copied from somewhere and when you analyze, they have a hidden agenda behind all this, to show off their fake profits and ask you to join their paid prediction groups.

Even if some of those profits shown may be real ones, but that doesn't mean that if that person was lucky to win such big amounts, you and me will have the same level of luck when we bet 

[ryzaadit]

Don't trust everything you see over the internet. Try it yourself; earning money from betting sites isn't very easy.

100% even my self a gambler who are sharing a bigs win. People don't realized, a gambler never share a lose ~XD If you ask me, I win bigs in Gambling but behind those I also big from Gambling. I agree.


By the way, those are mostly a tactics promotion. I 100% sure.... Polymarket do those even is not marketing is usually just a someone who are chasing upline for their code.

[Hispo]

Lately, I have seen some people on Instagram and even on TikTok promoting Polymarket indirectly, I wondered whether I am the only one who is getting those kinds of videos...

It is basically a guy who allegedly found a Polymarket market in which one can bet whether Jesus Christ will come before the launch of Grand Theft Auto Six, which is pretty much free money if one bets on "NO".

With that the influencer would be prompting people to check and join Polymarket, even when the market about the coming of Jesus Christ does not exist at all.

Have any one of you also gotten these promotional videos on Instagram?

[UmerIdrees]

Lately, I have seen some people on Instagram and even on TikTok promoting Polymarket indirectly, I wondered whether I am the only one who is getting those kinds of videos...
<snip>
Have any one of you also gotten these promotional videos on Instagram?

Well, what do you mean by promoting Polymarket on social media indirectly? They may be the genuine users who gamble at polymarket, and they put their videos on TikTok and Instagram. There are those platforms that have a wide reach and purpose may not be to promote the exchanges but to show off the winnings, who knows.

Anyways, if you are getting more videos on polymarket while scrolling these platforms, it is because you will get the feed in your account according to your interest, meaning if you visit polymarket reels, these sites will suggest videos related to polymarket and gambling. 

[Hispo]

Lately, I have seen some people on Instagram and even on TikTok promoting Polymarket indirectly, I wondered whether I am the only one who is getting those kinds of videos...
<snip>
Have any one of you also gotten these promotional videos on Instagram?

Well, what do you mean by promoting Polymarket on social media indirectly? They may be the genuine users who gamble at polymarket, and they put their videos on TikTok and Instagram. There are those platforms that have a wide reach and purpose may not be to promote the exchanges but to show off the winnings, who knows.

Anyways, if you are getting more videos on polymarket while scrolling these platforms, it is because you will get the feed in your account according to your interest, meaning if you visit polymarket reels, these sites will suggest videos related to polymarket and gambling. 

Right.
I understand how targeted advertising works, obviously if I talk about gambling and visit casinos on my browser, then I will eventually get adversiting about casinos and bookies.

But what catches my attention is how those influencers make up fictional markets about Jesus Christ coming back to earth before GTA 6, to be it is false advertising and devious, they are adversiting using markets which do not even exit on Polymarket. That is my problem.

It would be equivalent to advertising and casino by using games which are not even offered on the casino one is promoting, you know.

That is my biggest issue with those people.

[o48o]

However , like any other markets , it tends to be fully manipulated and polymarket is full of manipulation at a very high level. For me , this is enough to stay away ..at least for now.

There are always opinions that Polymarket is easy to manipulate, especially for those who are close to the government, it is easy to get inside information, who say this is not manipulated because Polymarket is a fair prediction site. I think people like to bet on Polymarket so the betting hype here continues to increase in volume.

There is one user on Polymarket with only 2 weeks less he can pocket a profit of almost $300K, imagine in this short time? Is he really good at guessing or does he have an insider?
https://polymarket.com/@a4385

Maybe betting on polymarket also requires skill?

If you think it's an insider, shouldn't you just copy all @a4385's positions that haven't been solved?

Imho, it's plausible that someone has been lucky with their guesses, because that happens. And it could help if they have a good sense of a pulse of the market sentiment. I mean, we know that we are in long bear market for example. There might be some bounces where @a4385 makes wrong guesses, like most of the people in trading. But that's part of the game.