Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[internetional]

More and more countries are introducing bans on Polymarket operating within their territories. The Netherlands has now done the same. As a result, in a significant part of Europe, Polymarket's services are already illegal.

In my opinion, something similar should be developed, but fully decentralized, without any governing body - so that there is no one to prohibit its operation. With all these bans, demand for such a solution is likely to emerge in half of the world in the near future.

[joeperry]

I think so too, honestly Polymarket is one my go to gambling site and one of the reliable one, I'm pretty lucky that it's allowed in my country. If I am not mistaken there are some gambling sites who are trying to copy the Polymarket but most of them are either no volume market or straight up scams, that's why it's not really easy to create a decentralized prediction market like Polymarket. I'm just wondering since, Polymarket doesn't require user KYC especially in non-US country, are they allowed to use VPN? I know that it breaches the terms of the Polymarket for using VPN but if you're going to have 1 consistent VPN from start to finish, would they be able to detect it?

This is just a hypothetical question and I know the risk of using VPN, it's either your account will closed, blocked, or freeze your account and block withdrawals.

[salad daging]

The prediction market is back in the spotlight because it is suspected that there are insiders taking advantage of the news that is currently happening, let's call it Zachxbt who will previously reveal a big case and many people speculate which platform will be discussed by Zachxbt, finally earlier he had revealed about Axiom.

Lookonchain revealed that the name Polymarket predictorxyz placed a bet on Axiom whose odds were only 13.8% that way he made a profit of $400K, only in one bet placed.
https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2027024827719061736

Previously I saw the highest odds were Meteroa, MEXC and third place Axiom if I'm not mistaken.

These are some of the wallets that insiders consider to have huge profits.
https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2027044945572573534

The more I wonder, is it possible that insider manipulation does exist? He is very lucky if he is an insider, while those of us who bet don't know anything and only rely on speculation will lose to them? Hmm

[dwyane36]

I think so too, honestly Polymarket is one my go to gambling site and one of the reliable one, I'm pretty lucky that it's allowed in my country. If I am not mistaken there are some gambling sites who are trying to copy the Polymarket but most of them are either no volume market or straight up scams, that's why it's not really easy to create a decentralized prediction market like Polymarket. I'm just wondering since, Polymarket doesn't require user KYC especially in non-US country, are they allowed to use VPN? I know that it breaches the terms of the Polymarket for using VPN but if you're going to have 1 consistent VPN from start to finish, would they be able to detect it?

This is just a hypothetical question and I know the risk of using VPN, it's either your account will closed, blocked, or freeze your account and block withdrawals.

Formally, their ToS strictly prohibit the use of VPNs to access their site from prohibited regions.
In my experience, they can sometimes detect this for one reason or another, but they don't freeze accounts; instead, they switch them to close-only mode, i.e., they allow you to withdraw funds. Or they simply don't allow you to make a deposit if they initially detect that you are accessing the site from a prohibited region.
By the way, to find out whether an IP address is blocked or not, it is better to check it in advance using an API request: https://polymarket.com/api/geoblock

[ultrloa]

More and more countries are introducing bans on Polymarket operating within their territories. The Netherlands has now done the same. As a result, in a significant part of Europe, Polymarket's services are already illegal.

In my opinion, something similar should be developed, but fully decentralized, without any governing body - so that there is no one to prohibit its operation. With all these bans, demand for such a solution is likely to emerge in half of the world in the near future.

This is actually the hardest part of their operation, since they need to deal with those regulations and banning done by government, Also since lots of regulators taking same stance this means that their operation became illegal in huge part of Europe.

It will be more interesting, if they decide to make fully decentralized this might solve those banning issues, since with this there's provably no authorities can shut it down. But real challenge here is on how they can still able to make people trust on their service offer. If they can find good solution with their issues and retain the trust of their user their platform will eventually grow more since there's more chance that demand to use their platform will increase. But well see their future counter action with those issues brought by government to them.

[Haunebu]

Looks like the 'US Iran war' market probably settled thanks to the US and Israel initiating missile strikes a little bit earlier and Iran retaliated by targeting US armed bases in several UAE countries like Bahrain, Dubai, Qatar etc. Crazy, crazy times thanks to that orange clown.

I feel that this particular bet(Unethical for sure) should settle without any issues.

[Coloma612]

Stablecoin bridging and proxy risks are the main concerns here. USDC.e is just wrapped liquidity, so bridge security is key. Resolution goes through UMA oracle to prevent rug pulls, but the UI is still pretty centralized

[dwyane36]

Looks like the 'US Iran war' market probably settled thanks to the US and Israel initiating missile strikes a little bit earlier and Iran retaliated by targeting US armed bases in several UAE countries like Bahrain, Dubai, Qatar etc. Crazy, crazy times thanks to that orange clown.

I feel that this particular bet(Unethical for sure) should settle without any issues.

This was yet another clear example of how insiders make money on the Polymarket and, in principle, on any other market prediction. For example, just a couple of weeks ago, it was noticed that someone had placed large bets on the US striking Iran before the end of February. I doubt that anyone in their right mind would bet a large amount on this if they didn't know the outcome in advance. At the very least, such bets look suspicious.

[salad daging]

Looks like the 'US Iran war' market probably settled thanks to the US and Israel initiating missile strikes a little bit earlier and Iran retaliated by targeting US armed bases in several UAE countries like Bahrain, Dubai, Qatar etc. Crazy, crazy times thanks to that orange clown.

I feel that this particular bet(Unethical for sure) should settle without any issues.

This was yet another clear example of how insiders make money on the Polymarket and, in principle, on any other market prediction. For example, just a couple of weeks ago, it was noticed that someone had placed large bets on the US striking Iran before the end of February. I doubt that anyone in their right mind would bet a large amount on this if they didn't know the outcome in advance. At the very least, such bets look suspicious.

Because he is an insider, he dares to bet a large amount against the market predicting a US attack on Iran before the end of February, this is clearly profitable for them so they bet as much as possible, insiders like this are government people?

Since the geopolitical situation is heating up, the prediction market will continue to be interested in this kind of prediction bet so I would still expect insiders to have better power over their betting market.

[mitchr4]

...
Because he is an insider, he dares to bet a large amount against the market predicting a US attack on Iran before the end of February, this is clearly profitable for them so they bet as much as possible, insiders like this are government people?

Since the geopolitical situation is heating up, the prediction market will continue to be interested in this kind of prediction bet so I would still expect insiders to have better power over their betting market.

This betting pattern clearly points to government insiders. Regular people wouldn't risk large amounts on geopolitical bets without knowing the outcome. Those who already know what's going to happen are obviously people inside government. As long as Polymarket has no way to detect and flag suspicious activity like this, insiders will always have the advantage and the market will never be fair for everyone. This is exactly why prediction markets like Polymarket are controversial.

[EarnOnVictor]

...
Because he is an insider, he dares to bet a large amount against the market predicting a US attack on Iran before the end of February, this is clearly profitable for them so they bet as much as possible, insiders like this are government people?

Since the geopolitical situation is heating up, the prediction market will continue to be interested in this kind of prediction bet so I would still expect insiders to have better power over their betting market.

This betting pattern clearly points to government insiders. Regular people wouldn't risk large amounts on geopolitical bets without knowing the outcome. Those who already know what's going to happen are obviously people inside government. As long as Polymarket has no way to detect and flag suspicious activity like this, insiders will always have the advantage and the market will never be fair for everyone. This is exactly why prediction markets like Polymarket are controversial.

What I see that is controversial is your disposition about this whole thing. You guys are only suspecting, but you can't prove it, can you? The world of betting has recorded small, medium and large wagerers from every facet. For someone to risk more doesn't mean they are certain of an attack, and even Trump could have backed down if the negotiation was positive. The whole situation was never hidden from the world, it now depends on your speculation prowess and risk affinity.

Besides, Polymarket knows the risk they are taking and understands the game. At worst, they would manage their risk by enforcing a limit (if they want), which settles it.

[bitmover]

In my local board people are talking about an easy money bet in polymarket.

If satoshi moves any coin 2026, yes will win.
They consider Arkam Intel as a reference to what  satoshi coins are.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026

[internetional]

Overall, it seems to me that bets related to Bitcoin are about the fairest thing you can find on Polymarket. There are no insiders who know for sure what is going to happen. More precisely, even insiders can be wrong, so you can bet against them too.

Although recently, three linked wallets made $2,350,000 in profit in just one month by betting on Polymarket solely on whether the BTC price would go up or down.
https://polymarket.com/0x1979ae6B7E6534dE9c4539D0c205E582cA637C9D
https://polymarket.com/0x1d0034134e339a309700Ff2D34e99FA2d48b0313
https://polymarket.com/0x1461cC6e1A05e20710c416307Db62C28f1D122d8

[Mahiyammahi]

Overall, it seems to me that bets related to Bitcoin are about the fairest thing you can find on Polymarket. There are no insiders who know for sure what is going to happen. More precisely, even insiders can be wrong, so you can bet against them too.

Although recently, three linked wallets made $2,350,000 in profit in just one month by betting on Polymarket solely on whether the BTC price would go up or down.
https://polymarket.com/0x1979ae6B7E6534dE9c4539D0c205E582cA637C9D
https://polymarket.com/0x1d0034134e339a309700Ff2D34e99FA2d48b0313
https://polymarket.com/0x1461cC6e1A05e20710c416307Db62C28f1D122d8

Betting on Polymarket 5m btc market has become too hard. It's almost become impossible to take entry manually with. Agood position. Bots are taking all the entries before you . I'm enjoying myself trading on polymarket . So to counter the bots I need to develop a bot myself with vibe coding. Still on test phase , but I'm happy with the result.

Instead of taking long entries there all sorts of market in Polymarket. You can literally find anything to bet. Elon Musk will tweet tomorrow or not , if tweet how much. Donal Trump's will say my poop has harden by June 😂.

[dwyane36]

Overall, it seems to me that bets related to Bitcoin are about the fairest thing you can find on Polymarket. There are no insiders who know for sure what is going to happen. More precisely, even insiders can be wrong, so you can bet against them too.

Although recently, three linked wallets made $2,350,000 in profit in just one month by betting on Polymarket solely on whether the BTC price would go up or down.
https://polymarket.com/0x1979ae6B7E6534dE9c4539D0c205E582cA637C9D

25k predictions in such a short period of time are impressive. Apparently, this user uses a bot nonstop, and based on the history of his positions, he bets not only on BTC but also on other cryptocurrencies available on Polymarket.
In fact, the chance of making money on 5-minute price predictions is probably higher than trying to do the same on exchanges.

[Hispo]

...

I have always found the world of Telegram bots tonbe specially interesting. What coding language did you use to develop and deploy your own bot? It makes me very curious.

Also, those markets aiming to people like Donald Trump and Elon Musk are very vulnerable to inside trading. There could be family members or close friends of both Elon and Donald making millions of dollars out those markets without the administration of Polymarket even noticing what is going on.

Anyways. If you could share the Telegram link to your bot,  it would be very appreciated.

[Mahiyammahi]

...

I have always found the world of Telegram bots tonbe specially interesting. What coding language did you use to develop and deploy your own bot? It makes me very curious.

Also, those markets aiming to people like Donald Trump and Elon Musk are very vulnerable to inside trading. There could be family members or close friends of both Elon and Donald making millions of dollars out those markets without the administration of Polymarket even noticing what is going on.

Anyways. If you could share the Telegram link to your bot,  it would be very appreciated.

I used python for creating the bot. My bot has some simple logic to run. I'm targeting the ods and spread between market. Trading less but trying to achive a win rate of over 90% . Unfortunately it's a custom made bot, only authorization is me. Even if I sent you the bot link, you wouldn't have to able to use it.

And it's using my credentials for Polymarket. You can always create a bot easily by using Polymarket documentation.

[internetional]

What kinds of bets you can find on Polymarket! It turns out you could even bet on how many tweets Elon Musk would post in a week. It's hard for me to imagine that anyone would actually place a bet on something like that. After all, the outcome depends entirely on the decision of a single person, and there is no element of randomness involved. Nevertheless, someone managed to win $83,700 (after betting $339), which means there were people - not insiders - who put up that amount of money.

Well, at least it wasn't millions!

[Haunebu]

What kinds of bets you can find on Polymarket! It turns out you could even bet on how many tweets Elon Musk would post in a week. It's hard for me to imagine that anyone would actually place a bet on something like that. After all, the outcome depends entirely on the decision of a single person, and there is no element of randomness involved. Nevertheless, someone managed to win $83,700 (after betting $339), which means there were people - not insiders - who put up that amount of money.

Well, at least it wasn't millions!

Insiders are also people who learn information in advance and proceed to place bets in order to win guaranteed profits which is why this person who won that huge amount could also be an insider frankly speaking since that is a clear long shot win.

The crazy variety of prediction market bets is the primary reason why they are so popular these days though these insider controversies dilute their popularity somewhat.

[knuckey]

As a new user at Polymarket, I'm a little confused. I have a few questions: Why did my deposit amount decrease?
I deposited around $30 and only received around $29.90.
If that's due to slippage, will there be another transaction fee for cashing out winnings? It seems like winnings aren't automatically credited to your wallet but must be claimed manually.