Is the global trading system changing?

[trendcoin]

These days, we see that those who believe history follows a progressive line are once again mistaken...

These days, we see that international trade in commodities, services and energy is not conducted through international agreements, but rather seems to be carried out through strategies of plunder and pillage reminiscent of the Middle Ages. We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

When I look at this picture, my concerns about the future increase. I see groups seeking resources for a third world war or trying to secure their own waste and extravagance by plundering other people's resources...

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

[ancafe]

These days, we see that those who believe history follows a progressive line are once again mistaken...

These days, we see that international trade in commodities, services and energy is not conducted through international agreements, but rather seems to be carried out through strategies of plunder and pillage reminiscent of the Middle Ages. We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

Is this related to the arrest of the Venezuelan president by the United States? Because we know that the trend is likely to be more towards the strong crushing the weak. Government systems built without strong power often suffer, especially if the country produces the largest natural resources. We are in a darker era where the strong will attack the weak, as international law should act fairly in every matter.

Power, geopolitics and influence are the basis for why one country after another is seizing power that may not belong to them. This reminds us of a dark era where injustice regarding legal certainty was held by those with power and ultimately the weak became victims.

[rat03gopoh]

Can I just call it a period of moderated instability? The modern world is too interconnected, with even small nations having diplomatic, trade, and perhaps defense ties with other countries or being part of international organizations.

What Trump did to Venezuela wasn't due to the perception that the target was too weak in some respects; but rather to US influence on the world stage, then how many other countries or international law would tolerate such an act of aggression.

Superpowers also need loyal customers or partners, not enemies.

[pooya87]

To be fair we've been living in this type of "dark age" as you call it, for the past ~200-250 years. Basically since the Western Barbarians aka colonizers crawled out of Europe and started colonizing the rest of the world. They've been slaughtering and plundering the world ever since. I posted a handful of major barbarism examples here a while ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5551741.0

The only difference today (in the 2020+ years) is that the colonizers empire is reaching its end of line. Their crimes and plunders has caught up with them and they are falling very fast. Knowing that, they don't want to fall so they'll try to prevent it. So their aggression toward more of the world is going to increase. Not to mention that the fights amongst themselves (eg. US aggression toward its clients such as Canada and Greenland).

So we are going to have more dark days ahead as the "bullies" of this world continue losing power and the "bullied" of this world continue gaining more power. Until a World Order is established for the first time after a hundred years.

[viljy]

There is nothing global anymore. In fact, neither the WTO nor even the UN is working. So there are no laws or regulations anymore. And it is very likely that in such a situation, international trade will decrease. At a minimum, maritime trade cannot exist if transportation is unsafe. And the uncertainty of what is expected to happen tomorrow will constantly increase.

[Alpha Marine]

We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

This has always been the way of the world. Very few things will happen now that are new. The strong/rich have always crushed the weak/poor. Go to any point in history, and you'll see that this is how it has always been. The difference is, these days, people don't even bother to hide it anymore. They do it with pride. They act like the only way to climb up is to bring somebody down.
The US used to invade countries with a pretext; now, they state openly that they want the country's resources. It's the same way in every aspect of life.

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

In the global state, I believe it won't always be like this. Of course, bigger countries will always plunder smaller countries. Like what is going on in Congo, but the chaos will depreciate when more stable leaders take office. And small countries won't be small countries forever. They will definitely fight back. It may not be in this lifetime, but nothing stays in a particular way forever.
My advice to those countries is they focus on fighting back against their government rather than the big countries that come to plunder them. If they had a good government, the exploitation wont be possible. 

[DubemIfedigbo001]

We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

The strong has always been crushing the weak for a very long time now, although they find a way to make their oppressions seem justifiable and conceal their main intent of feeding their ego and influence by making them weaker and unable to stand strong.

When I look at this picture, my concerns about the future increase. I see groups seeking resources for a third world war or trying to secure their own waste and extravagance by plundering other people's resources...

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

We see lots of countries strengthening their defense systems now because stronger nations have resorted to the use of force to reinstate compliance and dominance over weaker nations, they want control and when they don't get it as they wish they use force. International laws are long neglected, stronger countries have little or no regard for it and do as they wish.

Global trades are threatened as routes are no longer guaranteed, water ways are blocked and boats seized to punish a particular country, some countries have been driven into self-sufficiency mode and forced to produce for themselves or seek new trade partners for what they depended on other nations for supply simply because supply nations weaponized it against them, further weakening global trade. It is now a conflict of interests.

I'm afraid the darker days would persist for a longer time and as tension increases, I would not rule out the possibility of a third world war because dependence would surely decrease seriously on some powerful countries and there is no other way they would want to take back control apart from a violent approach which we have been witnessing.

[KiaKia]

These days, we see that those who believe history follows a progressive line are once again mistaken...

These days, we see that international trade in commodities, services and energy is not conducted through international agreements, but rather seems to be carried out through strategies of plunder and pillage reminiscent of the Middle Ages. We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

When I look at this picture, my concerns about the future increase. I see groups seeking resources for a third world war or trying to secure their own waste and extravagance by plundering other people's resources...

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

You are one of those people who are just realising this, from the beginning the strong have always trampled on the weak, the reason why this is now becoming more noticed is because of the changes in the economy and also the extra number of the world population, things are obviously getting more harder.

The future is looking chaotic, and it is getting scarier everyday.

A new war or the expected 3rd world war is going to happen, it is looking inevitable and any peace deal today is just a postponement of the war, someday somehow this war will happen again, there are just too many reasons why it will happen, things are not looking good, US Vs Venezuela is not even close to what I am talking about.

War is profitable for some, if you are smart you should know what I mean already.

[9ja Amaka]

There is nothing global anymore. In fact, neither the WTO nor even the UN is working. So there are no laws or regulations anymore. And it is very likely that in such a situation, international trade will decrease. At a minimum, maritime trade cannot exist if transportation is unsafe. And the uncertainty of what is expected to happen tomorrow will constantly increase.

The laws are just for written sake. None is enforced, or imposed to make global trade stable like it used to be.

However, the UN and the WTO do not have effective means to ensure easy trade recently. Most of the trades going on are fully government by bilateral agreement, contracts, networking, not by enforcement from organizations like the WTO and UN.

[Satofan44]

When I look at this picture, my concerns about the future increase. I see groups seeking resources for a third world war or trying to secure their own waste and extravagance by plundering other people's resources...

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

The world is broken, this is unavoidable. When people who do not have real power start acting like they do, this is the inevitable consequences of their actions. Trump and the USA are especially powerful. Do you know what has historically happened to people who refused to bend the knee to their respective King? The only difference now is that there is a delay between behaviors, in the past you would be executed or tortured instantly. Don't talk a big game on the world stage when you are not powerful. Greenland is definitely going to become American, it is just a matter of time (it may not happen under Trump's government, but it will -- we are talking about longer stretches of time). I am not so sure about Canada and Mexico, but if they wanted to attack them who would stop them? China does not care and this improves their own position, Europe is weak and run by woke clowns, Russia does not care either.

The only difference today (in the 2020+ years) is that the colonizers empire is reaching its end of line. Their crimes and plunders has caught up with them and they are falling very fast. Knowing that, they don't want to fall so they'll try to prevent it. So their aggression toward more of the world is going to increase. Not to mention that the fights amongst themselves (eg. US aggression toward its clients such as Canada and Greenland).

You are aware that, whatever 3rd world country we are talking about, on average a collapse of the USA would cause a brutal recession in that country?

So we are going to have more dark days ahead as the "bullies" of this world continue losing power and the "bullied" of this world continue gaining more power. Until a World Order is established for the first time after a hundred years.

Highly doubt it, the more likely scenario is that USA starts swallowing countries and so does China. Who is going to stop them and how?   You have a nice optimistic view of the future, and if that helps you sleep at night that is good. However, that is the least likely scenario here. A collapse of the USA would be the green light for China to start swallowing its neighbors. Be careful what you wish for.  

There is nothing global anymore. In fact, neither the WTO nor even the UN is working. So there are no laws or regulations anymore. And it is very likely that in such a situation, international trade will decrease. At a minimum, maritime trade cannot exist if transportation is unsafe. And the uncertainty of what is expected to happen tomorrow will constantly increase.

Enjoy the consequences of your own actions. Once you start trying to abuse the existing rules when someone who you do not like is doing something wrong, or when you start trying to bend the rules when someone who you support is doing something wrong then this is the result of it. You can see the same happening here with the merit and DT system, it got completely corrupted. If it does not function on a very small scale, why would it function on an even bigger scale? Especially when many people are cheering for the abuses when they favor them?

[slapper]

To call it plunder is dramatic when, in reality, it is just countries doing what they always did. Pursuing their own interests without pretending otherwise any more.

The difference now is there's no one power keeping everybody in line. That's it. This is hardly true: "The "universal rules" you're talking about were never universal they were just enforced by whoever had the biggest military and economy. That was the US for like 70 years. Now it's not.

And Yeah That Makes Everything Messier Because Now You've Got Multiple Players That Can Actually Say No China Doesn't Have to Follow Wto Rules If They Don't Want to Because What Are We Gonna Do, Stop Trading With Them? Russia uses energy as a weapon, cause that's all they have left that works - literally.

Your concern about WW3. Except nobody can actually win that war. The costs are too clear now. Nuclear weapons, supply chains, economical interdependence Even trying to fight would be suicide to all involved.

So what we are seeing is more like really aggressive posturing. Everyone testing the boundaries. It looks scary and it is risky but it's not the same as actual total war. At least not yet. Maybe that's just me being optimistic though.

[rodskee]

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

if we compare the past to now it’s evident that there are factors that affect the trading environment which were not present before which technology being the primary factor of the new trading environment

so we can’t completely compare the two eras and expect to see completely similar trends

[Hewlet]

These days, we see that international trade in commodities, services and energy is not conducted through international agreements, but rather seems to be carried out through strategies of plunder and pillage reminiscent of the Middle Ages. We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

If you ask someone that's dormicile in a third world country if there had ever been a time when international and relationship has operated on a fair ground that's not burned out of one selfish ulterior motives, they will be in the best place to give a bundle instances where there's a constant pounder of weaker nation by the stronger ones.

It's been some sort of the usage of power and influence to get what the stronger nations want and while trade might have been seen on the surface to exist between these nations, what's mostly the case is a clear exploitation of the vulnerable of weaker nation.

In the past, it was a clear exploitation and that's the difference between then and now that it's being done shipishly.

[Zlantann]

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

The world has been a survival of the fittest; there is nothing strange about it. The United Nations was created to foster world peace and prevent global conflict. Respecting the territorial integrity of Nations was one of the watchwords of member nations. Powerful nations have failed to abide by the provisions of the treaty. They were indirectly violating the treaty by sponsoring coups and manipulating elections in less developed nations. This is done to ensure that the government in power favours their interests.

Russia and the US are changing the narrative. They are now directly intervening in the affairs of nations to promote their course. Russia did it in Ukraine. The US has just shown its expansionist goal in Venezuela. China might be the next to show its strength in neighbouring countries. We cannot predict what the future holds but I am just hopeful that we will survive.

[Bluedrem]

I also think so. To be honest, world trade is under a lot of threat today. The conditions that the world powers impose on developing countries these days are moral conditions or immoral. And if the countries do not accept their conditions, various sanctions and plundering, that is, forcibly confiscating their resources, are becoming a normal thing nowadays. In the future, a situation will arise where poor countries will be crushed under the feet of rich countries. But I think their arrogance will not last long. Small countries will take preventive measures. When the weak countries unite, the rich countries will be forced to step back from injustice.

[Fortify]

These days, we see that those who believe history follows a progressive line are once again mistaken...

These days, we see that international trade in commodities, services and energy is not conducted through international agreements, but rather seems to be carried out through strategies of plunder and pillage reminiscent of the Middle Ages. We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

When I look at this picture, my concerns about the future increase. I see groups seeking resources for a third world war or trying to secure their own waste and extravagance by plundering other people's resources...

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

The trade system is always constantly in flux, we had a relatively long period of calm that was interspersed by the odd (often unnecessary) wars that were started by various countries and natural disasters (like a tsunami) that can cause disrupt trade for short periods. Right now we are in rather choppy and turbulent waters, with big countries - the obvious one right now is America - being particular belligerent to friends and allies alike. Sadly Trump is breaking the status quo that has kept the world stable for a long time, even worse than things like Russia invading Ukraine, because it is a constant stream of poison coming out of that government. The shreds of good ideas are getting engulfed by the toxic world being created and the hatred that he is spreading in different ways.

[Satofan44]

To call it plunder is dramatic when, in reality, it is just countries doing what they always did. Pursuing their own interests without pretending otherwise any more.

It is dramatic to call it anything like that, as most countries have already done stuff like this. For someone to call out Trump for anything, they have to be an extreme hypocrite. Venezuela did it first to the US. Also in recent time the EU did it or is trying to do it with Russian assets. Similarly they are also trying to do it to China. Just because laws are made that makes it legal, that does not mean that they are not stealing. Fuck the EU and anyone who supports their actions and bullshit.

The difference now is there's no one power keeping everybody in line. That's it. This is hardly true: "The "universal rules" you're talking about were never universal they were just enforced by whoever had the biggest military and economy. That was the US for like 70 years. Now it's not.

With this I don't really agree. There was never really a power that was keeping everyone in line, historically you can consider the period where the US was "doing it" to be a pause of the common way of history.

Your concern about WW3. Except nobody can actually win that war. The costs are too clear now. Nuclear weapons, supply chains, economical interdependence Even trying to fight would be suicide to all involved.

They can, if nuclear weapons are not used or are not available to the parties involved. People who tend to follow this line of argument are often engaging in a form of cope, believing that we will not destroy ourselves because of it. This overlooks the fact that a complete, all-out preemptive attack can in fact produce a winner. It will still have negative effects on the planet Earth, but it will be very mild compared to a nuclear winter.

So what we are seeing is more like really aggressive posturing. Everyone testing the boundaries. It looks scary and it is risky but it's not the same as actual total war. At least not yet. Maybe that's just me being optimistic though.

War is inevitable, mark my words if you are still alive by the time this happens. We have let too many stupid people have a vote and rights, and we have let too many weaklings act tough on the world stage. The balance of the universe dictates that consequences are in order. A nice dose of consequences will act as a renewed teacher for those who have forgotten the lessons of history.

The world has been a survival of the fittest; there is nothing strange about it. The United Nations was created to foster world peace and prevent global conflict. Respecting the territorial integrity of Nations was one of the watchwords of member nations. Powerful nations have failed to abide by the provisions of the treaty. They were indirectly violating the treaty by sponsoring coups and manipulating elections in less developed nations. This is done to ensure that the government in power favours their interests.

Russia and the US are changing the narrative. They are now directly intervening in the affairs of nations to promote their course. Russia did it in Ukraine. The US has just shown its expansionist goal in Venezuela. China might be the next to show its strength in neighbouring countries. We cannot predict what the future holds but I am just hopeful that we will survive.

No, the last part of your post is incorrect. The real reason for which the order is failing has nothing to do with powerful nations, it has to do with inconsistent behavior by nations depending on who is the perpetrator. If it is your ally that is committing the atrocious activities, you find all kinds of explanations and justifications for them or at the very least you keep silent about it. When someone else is doing it, you try to make them out as the worst monster imaginable. This hypocritical and childish behavior by countries on the world stage is what is the direct collapse of the world order. You can't have order in a system where parties act in corrupt and biased ways. Only if you treat everyone objectively based on the acts that they commit, regardless of their relationship to you, can there be some lasting world order.  

[Cookdata]

There is nothing global anymore. In fact, neither the WTO nor even the UN is working. So there are no laws or regulations anymore. And it is very likely that in such a situation, international trade will decrease. At a minimum, maritime trade cannot exist if transportation is unsafe. And the uncertainty of what is expected to happen tomorrow will constantly increase.

Isn't the same UN Donald Trump threatened the other day that he is going to cut their funding and everyone became muted? Literally, US control UN, they only work when they are directed by their messiah that fund them, they fear the benefits they get from them wouldn't come again, now they have turn blind eye. I'm not sure if in the last 5 years I have seen UN take any actions against any country, the only thing they talk about is about global warming and endless conferences that add meaningless value.

I have watched the trade war that happened all through our last year, there is no single country that utter a single retaliation on the United State and stand on that business. There were some that talk but later fold, they don't have the balls to say this is what we are going to do and this is what we are going to do and we are staying on that to at least show some sovereignty, they just make noise for nothing and end up doing absolutely nothing.

[bangjoe]

To be fair we've been living in this type of "dark age" as you call it, for the past ~200-250 years. Basically since the Western Barbarians aka colonizers crawled out of Europe and started colonizing the rest of the world. They've been slaughtering and plundering the world ever since. I posted a handful of major barbarism examples here a while ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5551741.0

The only difference today (in the 2020+ years) is that the colonizers empire is reaching its end of line. Their crimes and plunders has caught up with them and they are falling very fast. Knowing that, they don't want to fall so they'll try to prevent it. So their aggression toward more of the world is going to increase. Not to mention that the fights amongst themselves (eg. US aggression toward its clients such as Canada and Greenland).

So we are going to have more dark days ahead as the "bullies" of this world continue losing power and the "bullied" of this world continue gaining more power. Until a World Order is established for the first time after a hundred years.

They are already impatient and they are already starving therefore for countries that feel it will make a forced demand with military force, this will not go easily nor will it end simply, everything will trigger a world war on a large scale, the current country must have a neighboring enemy in the vicinity with many interests in the background of the support of the giant country to give attention to the big country that is the goal, We see such as Japan, South Korea, the Middle East Philippines can no longer be doubted from the past, such as other examples such as Ukraine, several cases of conflict arising not only because of trade but because of threats and fears that someone intends to divide the harmony.

And I agree with you, it is a tradition that when a ruler is dying he will look for other sacrifices to get well, like Venezuela today, don't forget this is similar to what happened with Iraq in the past, they did the plan exactly the same through propaganda.

What really pisses me off is why every change of ruler always happens with death, destruction, to start a new era.

Uncle Sam's dominance has begun to crumble, his influence in terms of economy is no longer strong, and they today rely on the military as a force to warn other countries and also take their wishes to be achieved, the world that was initiated by them from trade and others they began to betray their own words.

[imthegreat]

These days, we see that those who believe history follows a progressive line are once again mistaken...

These days, we see that international trade in commodities, services and energy is not conducted through international agreements, but rather seems to be carried out through strategies of plunder and pillage reminiscent of the Middle Ages. We seem to be entering a dark era where the strong crush the weak, where the strong impose their own rules rather than universal rules...

When I look at this picture, my concerns about the future increase. I see groups seeking resources for a third world war or trying to secure their own waste and extravagance by plundering other people's resources...

What do you think? Isn't the future truly chaotic?

Absolutely right, and it seems to me that the world hasn't changed, but has remained the same; there's just more transparency now. And we all see the dirty methods used to extort money and resources, when some countries talk about peace, but in reality, they simply kidnap other countries' leaders or attack other countries with their powerful military potential. And I think that's how it was before—everyone was just trying to appear good, but in reality, leaders have become greedy. Let them think about the future of their countries.
But it would be better if they stuck to more diplomatic methods.