Speculative & Volatile or Boring & Adopted - what BTC future do you prefer?

[d5000]

I think it's highly likely that there are two main scenarios for Bitcoin's economy in the next decades:

1) a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk:

Bitcoin continues to be used mostly like today. People (and also businesses) buy it because it's volatile and can yield high ROI if you catch the correct moment to enter and sell near the peaks. In this scenario, we will continue to see wild price swings, spectacular bull markets and insane crashes after massive profit takings. But that would limit adoption to people (and business) with money they can afford to lose.

Price growth would be higher than 30% in most years, sometimes 50% or more, but there is also the possibility of deeply negative years with 50% loss or more.

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.


More details about the scenarios in this post in another thread.

I would like to know from the Bitcointalk community which scenario you prefer. I think still both scenarios are possible at this stage and have a similar probability.

On purpose, I haven't included a "moderate" scenario. It is far more interesting if people would prefer high but risky ROI or a slow, stable growth, otherwise people would gravitate probably to the moderate scenario.

[Oshosondy]

Highly less volatile market for bitcoin with increasing price which will be boring to people is what many bitcoin adopters want because they want bitcoin to compete with gold in the future, but this may take long period of time to achieve, I believe the market will still be volatile but the volatility will be reducing as the marketcap is increasing just as we have been seeing it since bitcoin was created. This is what I will prefer. I neither choose any of the two but bitcoin should become less volatile and move towards a boring market with increasing marketcap.

[Zaguru12]

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.

I will start by most people will actually love to have higher profits without having to face higher risk wguch is brilliantly explained by you not to be ever possible as both risk goes in both directions.

With this I will personally be picking this second option of less volatility and more stable scenario and my reason is that with the ever growing world economic crisis I think inflation will continue to rise and as such traditional means of saving will not be spared too as they will face major inflation, if this continues it can grow into recessions as such one would be in need of a safe haven to safe his funds on such that they do not devalue and at periods like this having bitcoin very volatile will simply not be the best option in my opinion. Rather I will prefer it as a currency which even if I don’t see significant gains on it I am very sure that the inflation wouldn’t affect by funds and even after years I know my funds are in a better spot.

I have always viewed bitcoin to be heading in this sure direction most especially with institutions coming in and with reluctance to sell the volatility will reduce drastically in both bullish and bearish trends.

[Stepstowealth]

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

I like boring in this situation and will really like to see a more stable scenario, I think we have had enough drama already with btc, and then I can totally ignore personal gain and push for adoption because I will like to witness the situation once spoken about as a dream where bitcoin becomes an everyday use item.
It will give me a lot of Joy knowing I was somehow a part of the growth to that stage through my little contributions here in the forum and even to people around me.

[Obim34]

I would like to know from the Bitcointalk community which scenario you prefer. I think still both scenarios are possible at this stage and have a similar probability.

On purpose, I haven't included a "moderate" scenario. It is far more interesting if people would prefer high but risky ROI or a slow, stable growth, otherwise people would gravitate probably to the moderate scenario.

I'm going with this, a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk.

What's my reason, I am focused in ROI, that's the interesting reason for being part of Bitcoin.

High risk is a major reason to get through volatility and yet benefit from it. If i want to store value, I will use in gold or Real Estate, but what attracts me to Bitcoin, is the turn over of profits, and me being able to tolerate the risks.

[noorman0]

I can't imagine what kind of situation would change Bitcoin's volatility to a stable one. I assume all aspects of industry and business worldwide have adjusted Bitcoin reserves to their respective uses, so they won't interfere with each other. And most importantly, all countries have welcomed this with more friendly laws and upheld financial privacy, similar to that inherent in cash.

But honestly, I prefer the scenario of Bitcoin as a speculative asset, as it has been profitable for me in the long run so far. lol.