Speculative & Volatile or Boring & Adopted - what BTC future do you prefer?

[d5000]

I think it's highly likely that there are two main scenarios for Bitcoin's economy in the next decades:

1) a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk:

Bitcoin continues to be used mostly like today. People (and also businesses) buy it because it's volatile and can yield high ROI if you catch the correct moment to enter and sell near the peaks. In this scenario, we will continue to see wild price swings, spectacular bull markets and insane crashes after massive profit takings. But that would limit adoption to people (and business) with money they can afford to lose.

Price growth would be higher than 30% in most years, sometimes 50% or more, but there is also the possibility of deeply negative years with 50% loss or more.

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.


More details about the scenarios in this post in another thread.

I would like to know from the Bitcointalk community which scenario you prefer. I think still both scenarios are possible at this stage and have a similar probability.

On purpose, I haven't included a "moderate" scenario. It is far more interesting if people would prefer high but risky ROI or a slow, stable growth, otherwise people would gravitate probably to the moderate scenario.

[Oshosondy]

Highly less volatile market for bitcoin with increasing price which will be boring to people is what many bitcoin adopters want because they want bitcoin to compete with gold in the future, but this may take long period of time to achieve, I believe the market will still be volatile but the volatility will be reducing as the marketcap is increasing just as we have been seeing it since bitcoin was created. This is what I will prefer. I neither choose any of the two but bitcoin should become less volatile and move towards a boring market with increasing marketcap.

[Zaguru12]

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.

I will start by most people will actually love to have higher profits without having to face higher risk wguch is brilliantly explained by you not to be ever possible as both risk goes in both directions.

With this I will personally be picking this second option of less volatility and more stable scenario and my reason is that with the ever growing world economic crisis I think inflation will continue to rise and as such traditional means of saving will not be spared too as they will face major inflation, if this continues it can grow into recessions as such one would be in need of a safe haven to safe his funds on such that they do not devalue and at periods like this having bitcoin very volatile will simply not be the best option in my opinion. Rather I will prefer it as a currency which even if I don’t see significant gains on it I am very sure that the inflation wouldn’t affect by funds and even after years I know my funds are in a better spot.

I have always viewed bitcoin to be heading in this sure direction most especially with institutions coming in and with reluctance to sell the volatility will reduce drastically in both bullish and bearish trends.

[Stepstowealth]

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

I like boring in this situation and will really like to see a more stable scenario, I think we have had enough drama already with btc, and then I can totally ignore personal gain and push for adoption because I will like to witness the situation once spoken about as a dream where bitcoin becomes an everyday use item.
It will give me a lot of Joy knowing I was somehow a part of the growth to that stage through my little contributions here in the forum and even to people around me.

[Obim34]

I would like to know from the Bitcointalk community which scenario you prefer. I think still both scenarios are possible at this stage and have a similar probability.

On purpose, I haven't included a "moderate" scenario. It is far more interesting if people would prefer high but risky ROI or a slow, stable growth, otherwise people would gravitate probably to the moderate scenario.

I'm going with this, a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk.

What's my reason, I am focused in ROI, that's the interesting reason for being part of Bitcoin.

High risk is a major reason to get through volatility and yet benefit from it. If i want to store value, I will use in gold or Real Estate, but what attracts me to Bitcoin, is the turn over of profits, and me being able to tolerate the risks.

[noorman0]

I can't imagine what kind of situation would change Bitcoin's volatility to a stable one. I assume all aspects of industry and business worldwide have adjusted Bitcoin reserves to their respective uses, so they won't interfere with each other. And most importantly, all countries have welcomed this with more friendly laws and upheld financial privacy, similar to that inherent in cash.

But honestly, I prefer the scenario of Bitcoin as a speculative asset, as it has been profitable for me in the long run so far. lol.

[d5000]

I can't imagine what kind of situation would change Bitcoin's volatility to a stable one. I assume all aspects of industry and business worldwide have adjusted Bitcoin reserves to their respective uses, so they won't interfere with each other. And most importantly, all countries have welcomed this with more friendly laws and upheld financial privacy, similar to that inherent in cash.

My theory goes like this:

First, volatility is already lowering. So this scenario, at least partly, is simply a continuation of current trends. However, I think without changes in user behavior, I expect this to take decades until it's really "stable & boring".

But apart from what you mentioned - regulatory certainty, widespread use of Bitcoin as a "reserve asset" - I think simply a wider distribution, be it by usage as a long term storage of value by hundreds of millions of users, or the usage for payments, will increase liquidity and that could further lower volatility. For this to happen people would need to consider Bitcoin "reliable" and less risky than until now. Scalability improvements (no fear to have to pay high fees) and merchant adoption could drive this tendency further.

BTW, "Speculative & Volatile" has zero votes until now, even if some have expressed in their answers that they prefer this option. Do I have to vote for you, folks?

[ancafe]

I would like to know from the Bitcointalk community which scenario you prefer. I think still both scenarios are possible at this stage and have a similar probability.

On purpose, I haven't included a "moderate" scenario. It is far more interesting if people would prefer high but risky ROI or a slow, stable growth, otherwise people would gravitate probably to the moderate scenario.

This concerns some people because they think the high risk associated with speculative and volatile investment journeys will impact their investment journey. However, for those familiar with Bitcoin, this adds strength to the investment process. Imagine building a business, the risks are also high because no one can guarantee or predict the future of the business, whether it will grow or not. However, people tend to think differently because they aren't as worried as they are when investing in Bitcoin.

Some people prefer safe and stable opportunities, even if the growth is slow. I don't think so, as everyone has their own decisions to make when taking opportunities. But if they dare to take risks and are confident in investing in Bitcoin, provided they do it the right way, then we can be sure that these people will achieve financial freedom much faster than with other investments.

[viljy]

I'm leaning towards the first scenario, meaning I'm closer to Michael Saylor's point of view. However, at the same time, I understand that in the end, after many years, the second scenario will be realized. But by then, people will come up with something new again, which will take the place of an ultra-volatile asset (I can't even imagine what it could be). For those who will be living at this time, it will be important to recognize the potential in this new one in time. There is no doubt that it will definitely appear. And by that time, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will become commonplace, something outdated...

[ColdLava40]

1) a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk:

Volatility isn't just a side effect of Bitcoin..it’s the heartbeat of the entire ecosystem.a feature designed along side bitcoin that makes it still trades like a high octane risk on asset.

just look at late 2025, where we saw brutal 36% corrections in the span of eight weeks. While critics claim this instability scares off businesses, I think they’re missing the bigger picture. Smart companies don't just sit on Bitcoin, they play the game.

Here's the catch.. By balancing their treasuries with stable assets, they’ll treat every deep crash as a clearance sale, using their boring cash to scale up their Bitcoin holdings.

But Let’s be real.. investors don't want a flat line( if they wanted a flat line, they would simply stick with their fiat currency). They want motion, a volatile asset that yield returns. Big institutions and governments aren't here for a safe happy ending. they’re here for the aggressive growth that only a volatile bitcoin market can deliver.

So I'll go with scenario 1 which is most likely to occur in years to come.

[davis196]

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.

The second option would be great, but I just don't see any mass BTC adoption happening right now. Less than 15% of the global population uses Bitcoin/crypto. If Bitcoin was so awesome, then why at least 50% of the global population haven't started using it? The answer is clear. Bitcoin is being used mostly as a speculative investment and for gambling purposes. I can assume that you are expecting mass BTC adoption among the big institutional investors as well. The question remains. Why would the big banks and corporations adopt Bitcoin? The answer seems pretty clear for me. Speculative high risk investing. This leads me to the conclusion that the first option is the only choice we have.

[Taskford]

I can't imagine what kind of situation would change Bitcoin's volatility to a stable one. I assume all aspects of industry and business worldwide have adjusted Bitcoin reserves to their respective uses, so they won't interfere with each other. And most importantly, all countries have welcomed this with more friendly laws and upheld financial privacy, similar to that inherent in cash.

My theory goes like this:

First, volatility is already lowering. So this scenario, at least partly, is simply a continuation of current trends. However, I think without changes in user behavior, I expect this to take decades until it's really "stable & boring".

But apart from what you mentioned - regulatory certainty, widespread use of Bitcoin as a "reserve asset" - I think simply a wider distribution, be it by usage as a long term storage of value by hundreds of millions of users, or the usage for payments, will increase liquidity and that could further lower volatility. For this to happen people would need to consider Bitcoin "reliable" and less risky than until now. Scalability improvements (no fear to have to pay high fees) and merchant adoption could drive this tendency further.

BTW, "Speculative & Volatile" has zero votes until now, even if some have expressed in their answers that they prefer this option. Do I have to vote for you, folks?

Good point, since even if the volatility  slow down, but the real stability they are looking at might takes time before this situation will happen. Maybe many decades will pass before they see that, unless there's changes of market behavior might going to occur.

More good adoption like merchant acceptance and Bitcoin became more accessible to lots of investors will make it became more flexible and also credible, If lots of people will treat it as their long term store value asset, this make Bitcoin less volatile and speculative asset.

[Alpha Marine]

I think it would still be the first scenario. A decade is too short a time for Bitcoin to be stable. I believe a time will come when it will be stable, but for now, I don't see it happening in the next 20 years, even.
It might not be as volatile as it used to be. This is obviously evident from what we can see now. A bitcoin crash only took out about 30%. It used to be more than that previously, its not going to do a 50-70% increase or decrease in a month, or even year, but I believe this trend will continue for a long time. It will happen fewer than it used to, but it will still be volatile.

For now, if I am to choose, I would choose bitcoin to continue being volatile simply because of a selfish reason, and that is, I have not acquired enough wealth to just want to store it. People who have a lot of wealth might want it to be stable so they can just store their wealth, but I want bicoin to keep growing (being volatile) so I can get some wealth out of it in my lifetime.

[I_Anime]

I can't imagine what kind of situation would change Bitcoin's volatility to a stable one. I assume all aspects of industry and business worldwide have adjusted Bitcoin reserves to their respective uses, so they won't interfere with each other. And most importantly, all countries have welcomed this with more friendly laws and upheld financial privacy, similar to that inherent in cash.

My theory goes like this:

First, volatility is already lowering. So this scenario, at least partly, is simply a continuation of current trends. However, I think without changes in user behavior, I expect this to take decades until it's really "stable & boring".

But apart from what you mentioned - regulatory certainty, widespread use of Bitcoin as a "reserve asset" - I think simply a wider distribution, be it by usage as a long term storage of value by hundreds of millions of users, or the usage for payments, will increase liquidity and that could further lower volatility. For this to happen people would need to consider Bitcoin "reliable" and less risky than until now. Scalability improvements (no fear to have to pay high fees) and merchant adoption could drive this tendency further.

BTW, "Speculative & Volatile" has zero votes until now, even if some have expressed in their answers that they prefer this option. Do I have to vote for you, folks?

I understand your point clearly , if moderate scenario was among the options would have been the best  (but where’s the fun in it ) . Now is quite complicated, going for speculative & volatile  which means high volatility equal to high risk , (like -50% dip ) .

I think I will go for boring & adopted , because bitcoin becomes stable (not like completely stable ) let me slow growth in price , it definitely get more adoption many won’t be scared of facing volatility (the ability of prices fluctuating (changing )) . With a steady slow growth many businesses who want to engage with bitcoin more , but it would be boring for traders because they literally feed from the market volatility. The truth is that there are chances of Bitcoin reaching such a state in the future, but the more certain outcome is a moderate one, with wider adoption and slight volatility.

[Merit.s]

BTW, "Speculative & Volatile" has zero votes until now, even if some have expressed in their answers that they prefer this option. Do I have to vote for you, folks?

You can check out the votes, speculative and volatile is on the lead with 60% votes. I prefer bitcoin the way it's currently because that's what makes it more interesting to dive into. You put money into it and hodli for long, you see your portfolio increasing exponentially.

Those who don't like bitcoin the way it is now might claim that they don't like the profits they're making on their investment but deep down in them, they're very happy. Only traders might not be cool with it been speculative and volatile.

[Cookdata]

1) a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk:

Volatility isn't just a side effect of Bitcoin..it’s the heartbeat of the entire ecosystem.a feature designed along side bitcoin that makes it still trades like a high octane risk on asset.

Volatility isn't a feature designed, it's an inherent characteristic of any asset traded between people, the more people we have that trade the asset, the less volatile it becomes with time. If an asset is new with less buyers and sellers, the asset tend to exhibit high volatility but the more it becomes better the less volatility go away with time but more importantly, the asset need to mature with time. Things like FUD can brings back volatility even though the asset is matured though.

just look at late 2025, where we saw brutal 36% corrections in the span of eight weeks. While critics claim this instability scares off businesses, I think they’re missing the bigger picture. Smart companies don't just sit on Bitcoin, they play the game.

36% correction is healthy, it's not brutal. You can consider an asset to have a brutal correction if the asset experience more than 50% correction.

I like how companies are strategizing their portfolio with Bitcoin but then again, I fear too much centralized authority given to some people. We now depend too much on strategy and how they buy Bitcoin. The week strategy don't buy Bitcoin, they start side talk and make fun of each other, the week they buy through OTC, they complain the buy isn't effective on the price while strategy keep buying and buying. I'm afraid we are giving away decentralization.