Speculative & Volatile or Boring & Adopted - what BTC future do you prefer?

[aoluain]

Ok we all agree that individually we cannot determine what way the market will go
based on what we would like but each scenario in the OP is appealing to me.

Who doesnt love high ROI? and the best way to have that is a volatile Bitcoin market,
but obviously that comes with risk - the upside is still appealing.

but is frightening too if you let it be and if you think you will have to sell Bitcoin and buy
it back again regularly well then the second scenario is very appealing, ok you dont
make as much ROI but you also dont get left behind when you need to buy back when
the market has risen 30%.


My own situation back inn 2024 was one of having to sell quite a bit of Bitcoin prior to
the new ATH which was unfortunate and in 2026 I will be in a position to buy back which
was sold os it will be interesting to see how the market is when that time comes.

I am trying to figure out which of the two scenarios would have worked in my favour . . .

I find it really difficult to make that fictional choice between the two . . .

[Fortify]

I think it's highly likely that there are two main scenarios for Bitcoin's economy in the next decades:

1) a speculative & volatile scenario with possible high ROI but also high risk:

Bitcoin continues to be used mostly like today. People (and also businesses) buy it because it's volatile and can yield high ROI if you catch the correct moment to enter and sell near the peaks. In this scenario, we will continue to see wild price swings, spectacular bull markets and insane crashes after massive profit takings. But that would limit adoption to people (and business) with money they can afford to lose.

Price growth would be higher than 30% in most years, sometimes 50% or more, but there is also the possibility of deeply negative years with 50% loss or more.

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.

On purpose, I haven't included a "moderate" scenario. It is far more interesting if people would prefer high but risky ROI or a slow, stable growth, otherwise people would gravitate probably to the moderate scenario.

Whether we like it or not, greater adoption and dispersion of Bitcoin - through laws that allow new uses and buyers to come in with less risk, is going to reduce the volatility of bitcoin over time. It's natural that volatility will fall over time for all kinds of reasons. Bitcoin is actually being lost all the time for unrecoverable reasons and possibly traded to more people who may choose to sit on it for a variety of reasons. It also ends up in the hands of more private equity (and rich people) who actually have so much money that they may never resell it again in future because it is just one of their very many toys and speculative assets. While we might encounter large swings from things like new regulation or bans, outside of that it should start to stabilize more over time.

[Ambatman]

2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.

Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.

I would prefer this similar to how gold is perceived now but better
And the road towards this stage is going to be accompanied by huge pump which is inevitable
So yeah I still benefit till it gets boring

Boring doesn't really stop individuals from trading leverage
So they can use leverage to cover the lost volatility kind of a win win.

Okay I Know some would say Gold isn't stable but stability at the end is relative
And even supposed USDT ain't really stable.


So Yes, I would be version 2. Imagine a decentralized currency
Growing in value is inevitable no matter how slow as long as we cross the hurdle of mass adoption.

[d5000]

You're offering two opposing scenarios. What if the future bitcoin has a mixed scenario, combining "speculative" and "boring" periods (alternating in time)?

The thread was started with the following idea in mind:

What happens if Bitcoin's ROI becomes too boring for a large number of users? Would they still be comfortable with it, or would they sell?

In the last 5 years we had an average BTC price growth rates at about 25-30% per year. This is still a very high return. But people are already complaining gold and silver have higher returns.

For now, Bitcoin stil outcompetes gold and silver if we look at timeframes of more than a year. But that could be history in a couple of years, even if the general bullish trend persists. Gold in the last 5 years had yearly price increases of 20-25% already, even if it's concentrated on this year's rally and it's possible that the bubble pops. But if Bitcoin's volatility reduction continues, it won't be the "most profitable asset" on the market.

And thus what I want to know with this poll, is: would Bitcoin users still be comfortable with a more boring scenario? Or do they jump of the wagon if Bitcoin becomes too stable?