The $97K Fakeout: Why Bitcoin’s Path to $100K is Blocked

[Alpen]

Bitcoin's price broke out of its sideways channel, closing the daily candle above $97K. This led to predictions of a test of the $100K level and even a break to new all-time highs.

But a quick look at the chart shows how unlikely that scenario really is. The breakout was a fakeout, confirmed by the low trading volumes that don't support an actual uptrend. Speculators aren't buying into a change from the sideways trend either.



The options skew remains around 4%, showing sustained demand for downside protection and doubt about any further rise above $100,000. The bulls didn't catch the bears off guard. The price rise only triggered about $370 million in short liquidations. Many sell orders also had their stop-loss levels raised, which hints at an expectation of an imminent BTC drop.



The fundamental factors are stacking up against Bitcoin. The Senate has once again delayed passing crypto regulation laws. The proposed amendments are making the draft legislation increasingly strict and unfavorable toward the crypto industry.

[bbc.reporter]

@Alpen. It also appears that the weaknesses are appearing on the support of the government on the cryptospace. The politicians that are arguing on this market structure bill and the clarity act are closing all advantages for the companies in the cryptospace to maintain the advantage of the banks.

I predict that if these bills are signed into law, they might be considered a failure and this might cause another big dump on bitcoin and the whole cryptospace. It will be sell the rumor and sell the news hehehehehehehe.



Coinbase’s (COIN) decision to walk away from the U.S. Senate's crypto market structure bill could spell the end of any meaningful legislation this Congress, according to financial policy analyst Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen.

“We see this as potentially derailing market structure legislation in this Congress,” Seiberg wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. He said the move is often a sign that backers believe a bill is no longer fixable through negotiation. “We view delay as negative for crypto and positive for banks,” Seiberg added.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/01/14/coinbase-pulled-support-for-key-crypto-bill-here-s-what-it-means-for-the-industry

[AakZaki]

I think you shouldn't just be fixated on the volume that occurs, because the market does need a process to accumulate prices. As far as I can observe, Bitcoin's current price movement is still normal and tends to be healthy, so it's only a matter of time if you want to move as you expect. In addition, I also see from the side of other indicators that still show the potential for an upward direction, both from the market structure and momentum that has not been damaged. Therefore, I think that the price still has a chance to retest the resistance area at the psychological level of $100K, which I think is the most reasonable target in the current market conditions.

[shinratensei_]

What's wrong with bitcoin failing to breakout upon filling nearest sell block FVG. I see nothing wrong and definitely not a good indicator to determine if it's a fake out or not.
Bitcoin could still go to 104,000 when it attempts another push up after it consolidate on the 94,000 level for a while.

The same way it broke out from the consolidation of 94,000 - 84,000 range. The pump will not happen forever but with push and pullback. Your chart is by no mean an obvious indicator.
Sometime bitcoin can go up without the need to short squeeze the bears if the people thought it's undervalued. Slow but steady. I also doubted if passing crypto law gonna affect the price anymore at this point.

[Wiwo]

I think you shouldn't just be fixated on the volume that occurs, because the market does need a process to accumulate prices. As far as I can observe, Bitcoin's current price movement is still normal and tends to be healthy, so it's only a matter of time if you want to move as you expect. In addition, I also see from the side of other indicators that still show the potential for an upward direction, both from the market structure and momentum that has not been damaged. Therefore, I think that the price still has a chance to retest the resistance area at the psychological level of $100K, which I think is the most reasonable target in the current market conditions.

You nailed it perfectly, I think is too early for bitcoin speculators to start adding up event's, data's to point the last 24 hours bitcoin price to make conclusions,  to me bitcoin hasn't done anything outside what it has being doing all along which is to mentain benchmark between $90,000k and $100,000k.

And also, even if bitcoin recovered back at 100k it shouldn't be seen as something outside the normal, we should expect that to happen when the right liquidity is build to resist every possible pull back forces.

Conclusions is we should focus more on the momentum building rather than the short term market reaction to determine bitcoin price in a whole.

[Zaguru12]

You nailed it perfectly, I think is too early for bitcoin speculators to start adding up event's, data's to point the last 24 hours bitcoin price to make conclusions,  to me bitcoin hasn't done anything outside what it has being doing all along which is to mentain benchmark between $90,000k and $100,000k.

And also, even if bitcoin recovered back at 100k it shouldn't be seen as something outside the normal, we should expect that to happen when the right liquidity is build to resist every possible pull back forces.

In as much as I am yet to see the bullish sentiment actually riding this market up I think bitcoin in the last 24 hours has actually done something extra than what it has been doing in the last one month. If you look the price chart you would see that bitcoin has actually been consolidated between $94k to $85k with the $95k been a strong resistance over this period of time, so breaking this resistance is actually a thing.

For me I think the market is chasing after the liquidity and it will most likely go fill up those imbalances or FVG left during the bearish period before it might be heading down again. For now after a second retest on $97k my next target for bitcoin is breaking the $100k resistance and heading for the FVG at $104k region.

The USA continuous threatening of Greenland will play a significant factor in the market in the next few days.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin's price broke out of its sideways channel, closing the daily candle above $97K. This led to predictions of a test of the $100K level and even a break to new all-time highs.

But a quick look at the chart shows how unlikely that scenario really is. The breakout was a fakeout, confirmed by the low trading volumes that don't support an actual uptrend. Speculators aren't buying into a change from the sideways trend either.



The options skew remains around 4%, showing sustained demand for downside protection and doubt about any further rise above $100,000. The bulls didn't catch the bears off guard. The price rise only triggered about $370 million in short liquidations. Many sell orders also had their stop-loss levels raised, which hints at an expectation of an imminent BTC drop.



The fundamental factors are stacking up against Bitcoin. The Senate has once again delayed passing crypto regulation laws. The proposed amendments are making the draft legislation increasingly strict and unfavorable toward the crypto industry.

oh please btc  bears are terrified about the  18 trillion  uptick in silver and gold from Jan 2025 to 2026

BTC bears know that the metal money is coming into btc bigly this year and that if only 20% of the 18 trillion shifts to btc by July 4th 2026 the USA's 250th birthday  btc moves over 250k.

Bears are reduced to writing hit pieces like you wrote and hope that fools follow while wise people are just stack cheap BTC

note I corrected a typo

[aylabadia05]

The sideways trend is over, although I hesitate to say it's completely over because there are still two weeks left in January. In these two weeks, we will see if it will indeed remain stuck at $100k, because a few minutes ago it was still at $97k.
If you approach this topic with a different perspective, you'll find an analysis suggesting that what's happening now isn't a blockage but a test of the situation's viability for those who care enough to prepare.
So, stay calm, take a deep breath, and we'll witness $100K happening.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

The sideways trend is over, although I hesitate to say it's completely over because there are still two weeks left in January. In these two weeks, we will see if it will indeed remain stuck at $100k, because a few minutes ago it was still at $97k.
If you approach this topic with a different perspective, you'll find an analysis suggesting that what's happening now isn't a blockage but a test of the situation's viability for those who care enough to prepare.
So, stay calm, take a deep breath, and we'll witness $100K happening.

That two weeks could be critical for us, because if we do get to $100k again, then we might say that we could be in the bull run and proponent of a super cycle will prove that we might be in that, a new cycle and it could be the beginning.

But if we keep on just bouncing around $90k'ish and moving sideways, then it means that there are no movement, and there are a constant battle inside between buyers and sellers. So let's see what awaits us in the remaining two weeks of this month.

[JiiBs]

I think you shouldn't just be fixated on the volume that occurs, because the market does need a process to accumulate prices. As far as I can observe, Bitcoin's current price movement is still normal and tends to be healthy, so it's only a matter of time if you want to move as you expect.

In truth, people would always try to find reasons to explain even that which is normal to make it seem as though, there is a big deal about a situation and the market is actually responding or in agreement with certain actions out there.

Well, maybe it is but, what better way would it be to test those theories by observing them and actually taking advantage of them just as it happens or is unfolding. I think that would be nice and a good proof too and this is for the OP.

[STT]

Theres no easy path but I wouldnt call it a fakeout, it will take multiple stages to fight higher.  The problem is now there is volume at these various price points and sellers waiting at those levels along with speculators wanting to sell down even short at this price.  
  So it wont be easy, the current highs relate to early November + June lows and prior volume there and previous.  Also current volume is not high so repeated attempts or cycles might be what occurs but still its more positive now then late last year imo.

[coinlary]

It's not a fake out, it's just a retest, which is a bit more significant than a fake out.

But then, a mm or some hungry bears could still try to drop it below the new support, bringing it back into the previous zone where it has to fight again to break out. There is also a possibility of building a bottom for the next buy, which means it might stay there a little bit longer before it finally jumps.

The only problem now is that the catalyst has been postponed, and that might actually contribute to making it look like a fake out.
Just the way I view it though

[philipma1957]

There is 18 trillion in gold and silver profit from Jan 2025 to Jan 2026

I have to believe a few trillion will move from metals to btc in 2026.

[buwaytress]

There is 18 trillion in gold and silver profit from Jan 2025 to Jan 2026

I have to believe a few trillion will move from metals to btc in 2026.

Can't believe I had to read it here first but the chatter lately in crypto trading channels has been how many apparently pivoted (sorry to use the word) into metals after getting burnt from crypto. Like you,I believe those profits would look really juicy for those thinking to tap into a btc bottom.

[philipma1957]

There is 18 trillion in gold and silver profit from Jan 2025 to Jan 2026

I have to believe a few trillion will move from metals to btc in 2026.

Can't believe I had to read it here first but the chatter lately in crypto trading channels has been how many apparently pivoted (sorry to use the word) into metals after getting burnt from crypto. Like you,I believe those profits would look really juicy for those thinking to tap into a btc bottom.

i did okay with silver and I am shifting some profit to cash and some profit to btc.

[Awaklara]

But a quick look at the chart shows how unlikely that scenario really is. The breakout was a fakeout, confirmed by the low trading volumes that don't support an actual uptrend. Speculators aren't buying into a change from the sideways trend either.

The movement of Bitcoin is currently stalled. But let's wait for now; if Bitcoin ultimately continues its sideways trend in the $94k-$97k range, there is also a chance it could break through $100k next month. Of course, this would require support from market demand with an increase in trading volume. Otherwise, what might happen is a bouncing movement that returns to a correction at $90k, or even lower.

[bbc.reporter]

Bitcoin's price broke out of its sideways channel, closing the daily candle above $97K. This led to predictions of a test of the $100K level and even a break to new all-time highs.

But a quick look at the chart shows how unlikely that scenario really is. The breakout was a fakeout, confirmed by the low trading volumes that don't support an actual uptrend. Speculators aren't buying into a change from the sideways trend either.



The options skew remains around 4%, showing sustained demand for downside protection and doubt about any further rise above $100,000. The bulls didn't catch the bears off guard. The price rise only triggered about $370 million in short liquidations. Many sell orders also had their stop-loss levels raised, which hints at an expectation of an imminent BTC drop.



The fundamental factors are stacking up against Bitcoin. The Senate has once again delayed passing crypto regulation laws. The proposed amendments are making the draft legislation increasingly strict and unfavorable toward the crypto industry.

oh please btc  bears are terrified about the  18 trillion  uptick in silver and gold from Jan 2025 to 2026

BTC bears know that the metal money is coming into btc bigly this year and that if only 20% other 18 trillion shifts to btc by July 4th 2026 the USA's 250th birthday  btc moves over 250k.

Bears are reduced to writing hit pieces like you wrote and hope that fools follow while wise people are just stack cheap BTC

Yes, that is the storyline being shared on social media. However, when will these trillions in profits from silver and gold go in the cryptospace to buy bitcoin? Have you not considered that they might be waiting for bitcoin to dump lower before they buy?

It is headshaking that people are thinking that silver and gold outflows to bitcoin inflows is a certainty that will cause another all time high for this year.

[LogitechMouse]

Bitcoin's price broke out of its sideways channel, closing the daily candle above $97K. This led to predictions of a test of the $100K level and even a break to new all-time highs.

But a quick look at the chart shows how unlikely that scenario really is. The breakout was a fakeout, confirmed by the low trading volumes that don't support an actual uptrend. Speculators aren't buying into a change from the sideways trend either.
---
The options skew remains around 4%, showing sustained demand for downside protection and doubt about any further rise above $100,000. The bulls didn't catch the bears off guard. The price rise only triggered about $370 million in short liquidations. Many sell orders also had their stop-loss levels raised, which hints at an expectation of an imminent BTC drop.
---

Sure, volume can be a very good indicator because you will see there if there's a participation of the investor towards that movement, but that doesn't mean that volume is a "holy grail" indicator where it will say to you anything that will happen with the market. Sure, there's a chance that the low trading volume could cause this pump to just be a false breakout, but let's not forget that there were also times where there are low trading volume, it went to a bit of correction sure, but after that, it created a higher high. I'm not saying that it will happen this time... but what if it happens?

At the end of the day, what OP and us can do is to just speculate based on the indicators that we are using, and the charts that are showing to us. There's a chance that the OP's speculation is right, and there's a chance that my speculation is wrong. Well, it seems like market movers are transferring their wealth from precious metals like Gold into BTC.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin's price broke out of its sideways channel, closing the daily candle above $97K. This led to predictions of a test of the $100K level and even a break to new all-time highs.

But a quick look at the chart shows how unlikely that scenario really is. The breakout was a fakeout, confirmed by the low trading volumes that don't support an actual uptrend. Speculators aren't buying into a change from the sideways trend either.



The options skew remains around 4%, showing sustained demand for downside protection and doubt about any further rise above $100,000. The bulls didn't catch the bears off guard. The price rise only triggered about $370 million in short liquidations. Many sell orders also had their stop-loss levels raised, which hints at an expectation of an imminent BTC drop.



The fundamental factors are stacking up against Bitcoin. The Senate has once again delayed passing crypto regulation laws. The proposed amendments are making the draft legislation increasingly strict and unfavorable toward the crypto industry.

oh please btc  bears are terrified about the  18 trillion  uptick in silver and gold from Jan 2025 to 2026

BTC bears know that the metal money is coming into btc bigly this year and that if only 20% other 18 trillion shifts to btc by July 4th 2026 the USA's 250th birthday  btc moves over 250k.

Bears are reduced to writing hit pieces like you wrote and hope that fools follow while wise people are just stack cheap BTC

Yes, that is the storyline being shared on social media. However, when will these trillions in profits from silver and gold go in the cryptospace to buy bitcoin? Have you not considered that they might be waiting for bitcoin to dump lower before they buy?

It is headshaking that people are thinking that silver and gold outflows to bitcoin inflows is a certainty that will cause another all time high for this year.

It is a shame you are  a bear agenda person.

The reality is simple every time gold and silver moonshot the winners take their profits and move some out of gold and silver.

In the old days many went to usa bonds.


I simply ask if you made 1 million would you put it all into usa bonds.

The way Trump plays fast and loose with rules my guess is big metal winners will move some to btc.

My guess is metal money will move into btc and bonds .

It just 10% of 18 trillion shift to btc , btc goes to  180k

[bbc.reporter]

@philipma1957. Why are you triggered? I am not a bear agenda person, I am a reality person. If you remember from the information I was sharing before, I was very much bullish on bitcoin because I have always speculated that government support from America will arrive. It arrived, however, we have witnessed the weakest pump compared to the pumps of before. Why is this?

We might be witnessing the beginning of the bear market and you say that trillions of inflows from silver and gold profits will arrive in bitcoin? Hheheheh this is hopium, I reckon. Those traders will wait for a better entry similar that they have waited for a better entry on silver and gold from years before.