Betting on favorites using point spread, is it actually profitable long term?

[Questat]

I mostly bet on NBA games and sometimes other basketball leagues, and I’ve tried different strategies before, totals, underdogs, even some parlays, but honestly the easiest and most enjoyable one for me is betting on teams I actually like and watch.

The problem is, straight moneyline on favorites usually gives terrible odds, so to at least get a decent return, I end up taking the point spread instead. not aiming for 100% ROI or anything crazy, just something reasonable while still enjoying the games. (1.80 to 1.90 odds).

For those who do the same thing as me, betting on favorites with the spread, how has it worked out for you so far?
Do you think it’s sustainable, or does it just feel good until variance catches up?

[Wapfika]

Profitability is subjective for this method because we know that there’s still a lot of games that even a favorites team still loss. You can do a summary on a specific sports regarding daily matches outcome and check what is the percentage of favorites team won to determine how profitable this method in the long run.

Choosing the right favorite team and point spread is still a hard task since even on ML bet on favorites still have chance to lose.

I suggest to run a survey first on the sports you are betting and check the winning percentage of favorites team won that day and do this for longer time frame.

[Sanitough]

If you’re doing it blindly, then no. Spreads are already analyzed carefully by odds providers, they won’t just put out numbers that can be easily abused, otherwise sportsbooks would get crushed. That’s exactly why you still need to research it properly and consider all the relevant data. If you’re just relying on gut feel, you’ll probably still end up losing in the long run.

[Finestream]

I suggest to run a survey first on the sports you are betting and check the winning percentage of favorites team won that day and do this for longer time frame.

There’s data available online that you can check, but since there’s no fixed way to win in sports betting, that data alone won’t really help if your goal is long-term profitability. We might even be looking at the same numbers, but the difference is in strategy, how we interpret the data and what we decide to do with it.

So to answer OP’s question directly, in general, no.

[yahoo62278]

Its all relevant to the teams playing. Take a look at the Indiana vs OKC game Friday night. OKC was a 15.5 point favorite and lost the game by 3. The Pacers have been hot this past week after they got their asses rocked by 40 a week ago. They been playing with passion, so taking 15 points would have been a smart move.

If you're only betting favorites and giving points everytime, you're gonna lose your ass in the long run. Teams don't cover the spread as often as we hope.

[ralle14]

I want to say it can work, but I haven't seen any successful bettor who only takes the minus points of the favorites throughout the season.

I also did something similar with the NFL regular season, and the results were terrible because the bookies made you think the favorites would cover easily while underestimating the underdogs. I'd assume the percentages only get worse if you go after highly contested games, which can also cause you to make a trap bet.

[Ziskinberg]

You should check some data too. I can share a couple of useful ones where you can look up team history and ATS records, you just need to configure the filters correctly and it’ll give you what you’re looking for.

I’ll share two sites for now, but there are definitely more out there if you’re not satisfied with what those provide.

[1] https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/odds-history/results/
[2] https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/database

[_act_]

For those who do the same thing as me, betting on favorites with the spread, how has it worked out for you so far?
Do you think it’s sustainable, or does it just feel good until variance catches up?

Betting is still about luck and not the type of selection that you choose, I prefer money line also and it is what I always go for. But there are sometimes that I prefer to go for first half win which is riskier but this is the area I won most money.

If you still find good bets at 1.8 to1.9 in sport bet odd, that is still very good. The team I do go for with first half win may not have more than 1.8 odds also.

I also like the money line but the odds are not more than 1.5 to 1.6 for the matches that I like. This is the type of bet I choose most of the time.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

If it's about winning most of your bets, you can but winning always and staying profitable on the long run is also luck, your skill in making good prediction can give an edge and allow you win most of the time but losses can happen in the games that you didn't even expect and that game can just make you lose  a big amount which you were very hopeful of winning. There's no method or option in sports betting that is a guarantee method of staying profitable on the long run except you are just lucky.

[rachael9385]

I don't usually bet on pointspread because I always think it's more complex to win in the long run compared to moneyline. But this is just my opinion, there are bettors that might actually find this option profitable but it all depends on the strategies used to bet on it. whatever option you bet on your strategies can increase your chances of winning, it all depends on your betting plan and analysis.

[Agbamoni]

For those who do the same thing as me, betting on favorites with the spread, how has it worked out for you so far?
Do you think it’s sustainable, or does it just feel good until variance catches up?

I dont think any market option is sustainable in the long run because many things influence the outcome of the match. Assurance and certaintity is what we cannot get in gambling. The odds are always positive or negative.

The day you are lucky, the strategy can work, while on days you are not lucky, the game will be ruined.

[stadus]

I dont think any market option is sustainable in the long run because many things influence the outcome of the match. Assurance and certaintity is what we cannot get in gambling. The odds are always positive or negative.

The day you are lucky, the strategy can work, while on days you are not lucky, the game will be ruined.

Obviously it won’t work if you just look at the sportsbook and randomly pick high spreads from heavy favorites. If we’re talking about long-term profit, it really takes some analytical skill. That’s what I’m trying to do, but to be honest, I don’t think my skills are developed enough yet to win consistently.

My approach is also very selective, I’d rather focus on quality over quantity when choosing games, even if that means fewer bets overall.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

For me, I believe no type of betting in sportsbetting can with certainty guarantee long term winnings, if so, then we will have alot of millionaires and billionaires who having nothing else doing aside gambling/betting on sports games.
And I am not saying that it's completely impossible to be in profit in the long term as a sports bettor, it's absolutely possible but the chances is low and can't be predicted, there are alot of bettors who still bet on points spreads and lose almost all the time..

One thing with betting is that it's doesn't work same way for everybody, focusing on point spread and winning almost all the time does not mean same is going to work for other gamblers as well, every sports bettor have to find and discover which type of betting that works and gives them the best result and possibly stick to that for better winning chances.

[Sammye3]

I mostly bet on NBA games and sometimes other basketball leagues, and I’ve tried different strategies before, totals, underdogs, even some parlays, but honestly the easiest and most enjoyable one for me is betting on teams I actually like and watch.

The problem is, straight moneyline on favorites usually gives terrible odds, so to at least get a decent return, I end up taking the point spread instead. not aiming for 100% ROI or anything crazy, just something reasonable while still enjoying the games. (1.80 to 1.90 odds).

For those who do the same thing as me, betting on favorites with the spread, how has it worked out for you so far?
Do you think it’s sustainable, or does it just feel good until variance catches up?

It is a really good option and I have played on it most of the time for the favorite teams.  In most cases, I give the  weaker team a point spread positive for a win and it actually works out.

I would not specifically say it has worked for me all the time or how long it has worked for me but it has being a good option over some other options but it is still not an assured option for consistently wining but based on preference.

[Agbe]

What's profitable to you might not really be the same for another bettor, this is why you should not take what others say as your final conclusion because you might try this betting system and end up losing or you can edn up making profit, whatever the case maybe just explore it yourself but the most important thing isn't the system you use it is about not staking irresponsibly and always sticking to your strategy.

[alani123]

Nowadays bookies will ban you if you win through algorithmic betting. They can even ban you at their own accord without providing reason based on their TOS agreement. So it's usually not worth the effort.

Let alone the fact that some people still manage to bypass restrictions through some ingenious methods so the spreadsheet close extremely fast. It's very hard to get in this kind of game.

[Questat]

For me, I believe no type of betting in sportsbetting can with certainty guarantee long term winnings, if so, then we will have alot of millionaires and billionaires who having nothing else doing aside gambling/betting on sports games.
chances.

That’s why I was asking about personal experience here, I wanted to see how many people actually made this strategy work for them. Turns out, I didn’t really get the answers I was looking for. Most replies were just about gambling responsibly, which honestly feels more like a lecture for beginners. I’m not a newbie anymore, I’m already past that stage. What I’m trying to do here is get real feedback while surveying strategies that actually work in practice.

thanks @Ziskinberg.. that link helped.

Nowadays bookies will ban you if you win through algorithmic betting.

Expound further, please.

[Makus]

My focus in betting has always been moneyline, since I'm not a constant bettor I'm not really sure if I can say I that I've made lots of profits but this option is more easier to me. point spread on the other hand feels riskier because when you bet on a team to win or lose by a certain number of points they might actually lose or win but won't play out according to the point spread. Even though this seems to have more value it's better that I stick to the basics of just betting on either team A to win or team B to win in full time.

[ryzaadit]

Can't said, profits but mostly still ended with lost.

These bets is not the first time, I think a lots people using the system. If these system work, we already seeing so much thread, forum, video discussion how good these system was. IMO, the best way is always knowing at least the team you're behind, match, league and other.

Rather than using a point spread.

[mv1986]

I mostly bet on NBA games and sometimes other basketball leagues, and I’ve tried different strategies before, totals, underdogs, even some parlays, but honestly the easiest and most enjoyable one for me is betting on teams I actually like and watch.

The problem is, straight moneyline on favorites usually gives terrible odds, so to at least get a decent return, I end up taking the point spread instead. not aiming for 100% ROI or anything crazy, just something reasonable while still enjoying the games. (1.80 to 1.90 odds).

For those who do the same thing as me, betting on favorites with the spread, how has it worked out for you so far?
Do you think it’s sustainable, or does it just feel good until variance catches up?

It worked out as bad as any other strategy. The point spreads are well chosen these days. You barely find a game where you think that the point spread it totally off. The thing is that the bookmakers do their job quite well, that is what it's all about. Just think about the databases they have acquired over time in all regards, then have their algorithm running.

The only bet that I sometimes believes carries value, is when you watch the game and it enfolds a dynamic that apparently doesn't reflect the odds, but that rarely happens. It remains a game of luck, whether we like it or not.