Bitcoin is Primed for a Shutdown Rally

[Alpen]

Analysts are expecting a new government shutdown this Friday, with an 80% probability. Democrats will likely derail the budget approval in Congress again, this time due to events in Minneapolis.

The last shutdown is remembered for two things: its duration—it lasted 41 days—and for Bitcoin hitting an all-time high.

I've overlaid the BTC rally from the October shutdown onto the current chart. Just like back then, it was preceded by a correction and a long crypto market sideways period. Just like then and now, the bulls started building positions early, and Bitcoin's rise has already begun.



I expect a breakout above $100K. The rally will be prolonged at first but will end with a sharp drop if the budget isn't passed for a long time. Given the size of US debt and the country's influence on the global economy, a prolonged shutdown will hurt all markets.

[GreatArkansas]

I don't think so, there will be no price reaction for Bitcoin this time, which is related with government shutdown in the United States.
Take note that we are already down 30% from the all-time high within 4 months. So for me, your $100,000 target seems still impossible in condition of Bitcoin, just remember what happened recently when we pumped around $95,000 and just got rejected, that's why we are back again below $90,000.

[Yaunfitda]

I'm also not sure if the US government shutdown will affect us that much. I can't really the last time, as we are already down and it seems that we are heading in the bearish cycle already. It might be bad news for investors, but it will not be the catalyst for them to pour their money again and push the price to $100k? On the contrary, it might create more uncertainties, so there could be huge price swing and it could be in the negative as a reaction to it. Also, this kind of shutdown will reduce the confidence of investors to the market itself, at least when everything settles down. And if we look at it, when we hit that magical number of 6 digits, it's because of the inflows coming from ETF, institutional getting into the picture. But with the current sentiments, I doubt that they or at least average joe are willing to put their money when there are a lot of uncertainties.

[Itz-prisigold]

Interesting angle but I just to see this shutdown more like background noise than the main event. Bitcoin doesn’t pump just because these politicians are doing their thing, bitcoin pumps because moments like these remind people why the hell it exists. When people start losing faith in a system, Bitcoin always looks better, What’s more interesting to me is the price started moving before any shutdown was confirmed. That alone shows that buyers were already comfortable stepping in, even during the boring sideways period.

Some people are getting a bit to excited. People think nothing is wrong, but if this drags out and liquidity across the market starts to die, BTC will struggle like any risk asset will. Sure, uncertainty is good for a pump, and there is good potential to the upside but the risk in this case is not zero.  It's better to think about what you are doing with your position,  rather than just get lost in the momentum and the hype.

[adultcrypto]

Despite the rise we have seen few days till today, market is still not willing to break above $90,000 which makes it practically impossible for bitcoin to reach $100,000 before the US government shutdown. If you are following the money, you will see that everyone is buying gold now, by everyone I mean the big capital, which is why gold recorded an ATH yesterday. If the funds are flowing into gold, I doubt there will be enough to move the bitcoin price too high. Therefore, my view is that bitcoin will show some signs of bullishness but not strong enough to create a scene.

[john_egbert]

Despite the rise we have seen few days till today, market is still not willing to break above $90,000 which makes it practically impossible for bitcoin to reach $100,000 before the US government shutdown. If you are following the money, you will see that everyone is buying gold now, by everyone I mean the big capital, which is why gold recorded an ATH yesterday. If the funds are flowing into gold, I doubt there will be enough to move the bitcoin price too high. Therefore, my view is that bitcoin will show some signs of bullishness but not strong enough to create a scene.

I too think it in that way.. Everybody keeps hoarding gold -> they view the situation as something that may cause a period of instability for the time being in one big flash.. for which they are preparing for..

[Zlantann]

I expect a breakout above $100K. The rally will be prolonged at first but will end with a sharp drop if the budget isn't passed for a long time. Given the size of US debt and the country's influence on the global economy, a prolonged shutdown will hurt all markets.

The last governemnt shutdown might have contributed to the fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin. But other factors might have contributed to that move. institutional adoption contributed to a large extent to the price rally last October. Investors would have to be careful because it is not certain that a shutdown will drive price increases. We have seen Investors rush to gold and silver as a safe haven during times of uncertainty.

[aylabadia05]

You yourself might think that the response that causes Bitcoin prices to move or not is related to budget approval in Congress or political matters, and I don't think it has much effect.
With only a few days left in January, it will only leave a record that $100k failed to happen. We'll wait for the price to return to $100k in February, and after that, we'll analyze the direction of the market movement—whether it will continue to move sideways or experience a decline of more than 30% to 40% from the current all-time high (ATH) that is still holding steady.

[rbynxx]

Why not? We want some pump because Bitcoin has been boring while the precious metals have been soaring lately. Well, we can't really say in advance on what will really happen since this is still an uncertain market but I think that the major sentiment doesn't change and that is we are experiencing a decline.

[Ultegra134]

I don't think so, there will be no price reaction for Bitcoin this time, which is related with government shutdown in the United States.
Take note that we are already down 30% from the all-time high within 4 months. So for me, your $100,000 target seems still impossible in condition of Bitcoin, just remember what happened recently when we pumped around $95,000 and just got rejected, that's why we are back again below $90,000.

I agree, at this point, surpassing $100,000 in the near future sounds unlikely to me. Although I'm not familiar with what happened during the previous government shutdown, it's probable that other factors may have affected the market as well, which haven't been taken into account. In any case, just because it happened during the first one doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen in the second one as well, statistically, it may sound possible, but it doesn't have to be.

[STT]

The giant irony is a shutdown has the theoretical effect of reducing government spending and so strengthening the dollar.   Of course the reality is as clear as a bucket of mud, its politics its as dirty as anything gets but you know  theory and reality can differ greatly from expectations; the ironic effect of shutdown might be unintended.

Mostly I expect more of the same that has been my take so far which is volatility and uncertainty which is not usually helpful to economies.

[bbc.reporter]

@Alpen. However, how sustainable will be this rally after the shutdown has occurred? The rally that we have witnessed on the last shutdown was on a different mood on the market. Everyone was still very much wishfully waiting for the effect of the change of policy in America. But this year, it appears that we should begin to accept the storyline that is something similar to your other thread. Bitcoin for this year might have lost the allure of investors.

[yhiaali3]

I expect the impact of a potential shutdown this time to be less severe, given that some financial bills have already been passed, so there won't be as much pressure on the markets as last time.

Some analysts even predict that the shutdown will lead to a drop in the price of Bitcoin, especially if it lasts for an extended period, and I tend to agree. I don't expect this shutdown to cause Bitcoin to rise this time, as Bitcoin is still unable to break through $90k while gold, silver, and other precious metals are reaching record highs.

[Ruttoshi]

Past record doesn't guarantee the future. Bitcoin price performance was good in the last shutdown doesn't mean that the next shutdown will also make the price to pump because investors have deviated from bitcoin and put their money in precious metals. I don't see any possibility of bitcoin price reaching $100k anymore. The bears are patiently waiting for the right moment to take over the market.

[Dave1]

@Alpen. However, how sustainable will be this rally after the shutdown has occurred? The rally that we have witnessed on the last shutdown was on a different mood on the market. Everyone was still very much wishfully waiting for the effect of the change of policy in America. But this year, it appears that we should begin to accept the storyline that is something similar to your other thread. Bitcoin for this year might have lost the allure of investors.

And looking at the current price, it's above $87k, so with that it might have lost the allure already as investors are pulling out because of the potential shutdown and also the chaos that Trump has been creating inside and outside of United States.

The question is where are the investors going to invest their money? One might be with Gold or Silver as this two precious metals keeps it bullish run at the start of the year. And again, looking at the chart and the cycle itself, this could be the start of the bear season already.

[DanWalker]

The US government shutdown is nothing new. Do not focus too much on the disagreement between the two parties and cause the government to shut down temporarily, overlooking the global political picture. The whole world is holding its breath to see what will happen next in the Middle East, and that is what we should be more concerned about than the government shutdown

To be honest, given the current instability, I do not think major investors will pour money into risky assets like bitcoin. I do not think Bitcoin could reach $100k if Trump decide to attack Iran in the coming day.

[Leahized]

Why not? We want some pump because Bitcoin has been boring while the precious metals have been soaring lately. Well, we can't really say in advance on what will really happen since this is still an uncertain market but I think that the major sentiment doesn't change and that is we are experiencing a decline.

To be honest, I feel like this situation. Moreover, Habit Coin has been staying in the same pattern since coming below 100k. Interestingly, when the price of gold increases, the price of Bitcoin starts to decrease. Moreover, it is seen that the price of silver is going to increase a lot. So while Bitcoin is more reliable, gold is slowly catching up. So as an investor one should give more priority to bitcoin as well as gold. And you look at the chart of gold and bitcoin, and it looks like these two are inverse.

[Asiska02]

I expect a breakout above $100K. The rally will be prolonged at first but will end with a sharp drop if the budget isn't passed for a long time. Given the size of US debt and the country's influence on the global economy, a prolonged shutdown will hurt all markets.

It is very hard to take but it doesn’t make sense again that any news coming from the United States will have an effect on the market. The market is very fragile to news from the US government especially when it comes to political and financial matters, this is not really helping matters anymore for those innocent and calm investors looking out for the best in the market. The state of the market is not making it to look bullish, it is really going to take a lot of pressure to see the market break above $100K. It is a very strong zone that has been rejected several times irrespective of what triggers the move in the market to attempt breaking it. With that zone not still broken, I think we will see a bear market more imminent than a bull market.

[asriloni]

I expect a breakout above $100K. The rally will be prolonged at first but will end with a sharp drop if the budget isn't passed for a long time. Given the size of US debt and the country's influence on the global economy, a prolonged shutdown will hurt all markets.

BTC failed to reach supply zone above 100k, and it's stopping at AVG zone. No doubt Bitcoin is dumping even faster than we have expected. The sharp drop is coming earlier, and major support zone at 81k range is finally broken. At this point i expect it goes down to the 78k - 75k range to touch the demand zone. However, it can be worsen if US is also doing shutdown again. .

So i think Bitcoin is clearly in the bearish trend, and it can last for a few years. No more bull candle is forming. We can expect whole market is gonna be dump so hard soon.

Beside that the worst scenario will happen if Bitcoin dump below avg buys of strategy. It will force them to liquidate their Bitcoin. We may be seeing crypto market ending in tears if this happens.

[X-ray]

Market looking worse with the escalation of US and Iran on the region and the shutdown might have the opposite effect than the one you expected.

Even gold isn't spared, went from $5600 to $5100 now and expecting another correction. As long as the geopolitical situation isn't improving, it could be the trigger for the bitcoin's next bearish season.

Your take is pretty optimistic but from the recent news, it's pretty bearish to me, honestly.