Obvious fixing in some small leagues? The line movement says a lot

[Questat]

I was betting on our local basketball league, Finals series, Game 4. One team was already ahead 2–1, so I was thinking this might be an even game, maybe refs lean a bit toward the other side, the underdog.

The opening line was SMB -3.5, posted a day before the game. But then, about an hour before tip-off, something weird happened. The line suddenly flipped. TNT became -3.5. A full swing.

You rarely see this kind of movement in the NBA or other major leagues. But in smaller leagues, it happens. That’s what makes me wonder if syndicates already know what’s going to happen. Obviously, the public would still bet on SMB since they went from favorite to underdog, and they end up being the ones caught on the wrong side.

This is why line movement is something bettors really need to understand. It’s not just about which team looks better on paper, but about where the money is going and why.

[Ivystar5]

A good gambler will be able to figure out where the money is going and why it's going there and maybe consider all the formations and lines for each team and maybe take so much time to make a choice on who to support for win but perhaps it's different here for people like me and even though we see that people are going into this side as favourites it can include us so much to keep following the multitude but for someone who understands this they will follow the real thing they know, I even feel bad that I have lost some games due to lack of knowledge.

[livingfree]

This is why line movement is something bettors really need to understand. It’s not just about which team looks better on paper, but about where the money is going and why.

Yeah, that's true.

And that changes from the odds really happens when the demand for these bets are also changing. So, if you're locked in on the actual odds that you have bet for, it won't change per se.

But if you're quite late from what you've seen before, then you'll have to bear with what the bookie has made with that change.

[freedomgo]

This is why line movement is something bettors really need to understand. It’s not just about which team looks better on paper, but about where the money is going and why.

That’s pretty basic stuff if you’re a regular bettor, it’s not something you should ignore.

Even if your gut tells you the better team will win, there are spots where you still have to fade them because some things are already out of their control. If the refs start influencing the game, even the best team can lose to the worst one.

It doesn’t take much, a few soft fouls here and there can already break the rhythm of the better team, they get frustrated, things snowball, and suddenly the weaker team ends up winning way easier than expected.

[rbynxx]

As expected they want to extend the series and be profitable for the tickets they made and that has been obvious for years now I guess with PBA and it's really frustrating to see this league. It's one of the league that should be wary of in terms of betting but yeah check the obvious pattern most of the time, it's just plainly laid there.

[rachael9385]

A good gambler will be able to figure out where the money is going and why it's going there and maybe consider all the formations and lines for each team and maybe take so much time to make a choice on who to support for win but perhaps it's different here for people like me and even though we see that people are going into this side as favourites it can include us so much to keep following the multitude but for someone who understands this they will follow the real thing they know, I even feel bad that I have lost some games due to lack of knowledge.

we've all learnt from experience, most of the mistakes we made in the past were as a result of lack of knowledge.There are lots of things that a good gambler considers before placing a bet, following the crowd means that you don't understand how to detect the psychological traps of the game. I also remember not taking these things seriously in the past and i had some losses.

[alegotardo]

I was betting on our local basketball league, Finals series, Game 4. One team was already ahead 2–1, so I was thinking this might be an even game, maybe refs lean a bit toward the other side, the underdog.

The opening line was SMB -3.5, posted a day before the game. But then, about an hour before tip-off, something weird happened. The line suddenly flipped. TNT became -3.5. A full swing.

You rarely see this kind of movement in the NBA or other major leagues. But in smaller leagues, it happens. That’s what makes me wonder if syndicates already know what’s going to happen. Obviously, the public would still bet on SMB since they went from favorite to underdog, and they end up being the ones caught on the wrong side.

This is why line movement is something bettors really need to understand. It’s not just about which team looks better on paper, but about where the money is going and why.

Yes! Always there are an obvious sign of manipulation, but the tricky part is proving that the manipulation exists there.

At football, for example, this hapens when a penalty is awarded completely unnecessarily or when a player is unexpectedly sent off for a "non existent mistake"... the signs is very clear and quite obvious, but nothing conclusion can be drawn by the authorities based only on that. In other words... you do not even need to be a very attentive fan because the signs of manipulation are often quite obvious in any type of sport.

Unfortunately, I am someone who would like to bet more on smaller leagues and teams in my region, but I do not bet because the chances of these results being manipulated by the players themselves are significantly higher than in the larger leagues and teams.

[Charles-Tim]

Anything can happen in sport but know that manipulation can happen in sport like football and other ones, but one of the matches that manipulation is more common is basketball. It can be common on the lower leagues but also more common in basketball. And you are referring to lower league? Definitely, manipulation is possible.

[Kasabus]

I think you’re referring to the PBA game, and now that the line is finally available, let’s see if it flips again. If it doesn’t, then that usually tells us the team listed as the favorite is the one more likely to win. At this point it’s all about monitoring the line movement, it’s already Game 5 so both teams are going to play much harder, especially on defense.

Whoever takes the 3–2 lead here will be in a very strong position to win the series.

[Wapfika]

The opening line was SMB -3.5, posted a day before the game. But then, about an hour before tip-off, something weird happened. The line suddenly flipped. TNT became -3.5. A full swing.

You rarely see this kind of movement in the NBA or other major leagues. But in smaller leagues, it happens. That’s what makes me wonder if syndicates already know what’s going to happen. Obviously, the public would still bet on SMB since they went from favorite to underdog, and they end up being the ones caught on the wrong side.

This is why line movement is something bettors really need to understand. It’s not just about which team looks better on paper, but about where the money is going and why.

This is PBA right?

Maybe the small market for this league makes the line very volatile if some player place a huge bet on the other team since you already mentioned that even you think that the result will be even for the reason you stated.

A surge of bet for the TNT probably move the line aggressively since most Filipino wants to speculate the same as you.

This league is very boring since on 3 teams always competing on the finals. SMB, TNT and Ginebra. Haha

I saw the result, you’re right that TNT win.

[ZeroVinsonN]

The truth is that it's actually easier to fix games in these smaller leagues because obviously there are way easier to buy off especially with players still trying to get a better footing in the sports they wouldn't want to career to be ruined before it even fully begins simply because someone wants them to, it could even be some kind of a sponsor making it even more difficult for them to refuse or sometimes the offer they get is better then the league would pay if they went on the straight and narrow.

[Lucius]

I can say that there is a lot of match-fixing in the lower football leagues in the countries of the Balkan region - people talk about it while sitting and drinking coffee in their favorite cafe, and then it happens exactly as they said it would. In the lower leagues, there are clubs that want to move up and have the money, while there are also those that don't have such desires, and they also need the money.

In my country, even the football first league had a scandal when the head of the refereeing commission was secretly filmed accepting bribes for a fair trial. Sport is increasingly becoming a dirty backstage game dominated by people who shouldn't even be in the football stands, let alone in the management and refereeing organizations.

[Sanitough]

Line movement is normal, especially in small leagues where betting volume isn’t that big to begin with. Sharps will always move the market if they see value on one side, that part is nothing new. What makes it look suspicious though is when those movements end up lining up perfectly with the actual result, especially against the spread.

In this case, the spread movement pretty much reflected what really happened in the game, so I can understand why people are saying there might’ve been a fix here.
Not sure if the same applies to other small leagues though, that’s a different discussion.

[Maslate]

In this case, the spread movement pretty much reflected what really happened in the game, so I can understand why people are saying there might’ve been a fix here.
Not sure if the same applies to other small leagues though, that’s a different discussion.

That’s pretty much what happened in the PBA before, but now there’s no kind of line movement like that, so I don’t think there’s anything shady going on tonight. We can probably just bet peacefully on the team we like.

It’s a bit tricky though because these teams don’t really have a true home-court advantage like in the NBA, where spreads clearly change depending on the venue. In the PBA, if you’re trying to read whether teams are still in control, the spread should generally stay consistent from Game 1 to the end of the series, or if it does change, it’s usually just a slight adjustment, not a big swing like what OP observed.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

As expected they want to extend the series and be profitable for the tickets they made and that has been obvious for years now I guess with PBA and it's really frustrating to see this league. It's one of the league that should be wary of in terms of betting but yeah check the obvious pattern most of the time, it's just plainly laid there.

Probably this is what the commissioner wanted, and even in NBA we have heard this kind of theory that the league wanted to extend the games and viewership, obviously to squeeze more profits while they are in the final days of playing.

But fans are going to be affected by this kind of moves, just like the OP that he had saw a massive swing in the odds that doesn't really make sense. So not sure if this is going to be reported by the media or maybe sort of investigation under way?

However, if the league itself is involved, then there's nothing that we can do.

[stadus]

The truth is that it's actually easier to fix games in these smaller leagues because obviously there are way easier to buy off especially with players still trying to get a better footing in the sports they wouldn't want to career to be ruined before it even fully begins simply because someone wants them to, it could even be some kind of a sponsor making it even more difficult for them to refuse or sometimes the offer they get is better then the league would pay if they went on the straight and narrow.

Sometimes we think that fixing a game means the players themselves have to cooperate or even initiate it, but that’s not always the case. It’s actually easier if the refs are the ones influencing the game since it’s less obvious that way. As gamblers who constantly watch and bet on these games, we tend to notice these things, we get that gut feeling when something feels off. In the end, what matters most for us is recognizing which side it’s leaning toward, because that’s how we can actually benefit from it.