2026 Elliott Wave

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It looks like your February prediction was quite good (until now ).

In any case, you've never predicted a significantly lower bottom than the one we've seen a few days ago, at most in the 48-55k area. I would not be surprised if we retest this level indeed (which already was quite relevant in 2024) and then go up. If the 50k level is broken significantly, from my limited Elliott knowledge I guess your conclusion would be that the 2025 wasn't a Wave 1 but a Wave 5 already, and that at least one significant step lower could follow (perhaps in the 38-40 or in the 28-33k area). But let's hope that isn't the case

By the way, the 2022 bear seems also have been a downward movement with 5 waves (down-up-down-up-down) instead of the "classic" corrective 3 wave pattern, with the last wave being much flatter than the previous ones. Your current prediction (very close to February's) would match that too.

Cycle degree bear market scenario...

[josegines]

When do you consider wave 2 to be over and the start of wave 3 confirmed?

When it exceeds $82k?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

When do you consider wave 2 to be over and the start of wave 3 confirmed?

When it exceeds $82k?

A five wave advance beyond the 15-JUN-2026 high of $67,260 would be the earliest signal to suggest a new bull market has a chance to commence.

[sparkl3t]

It looks like your February prediction was quite good (until now ).

In any case, you've never predicted a significantly lower bottom than the one we've seen a few days ago, at most in the 48-55k area. I would not be surprised if we retest this level indeed (which already was quite relevant in 2024) and then go up. If the 50k level is broken significantly, from my limited Elliott knowledge I guess your conclusion would be that the 2025 wasn't a Wave 1 but a Wave 5 already, and that at least one significant step lower could follow (perhaps in the 38-40 or in the 28-33k area). But let's hope that isn't the case

By the way, the 2022 bear seems also have been a downward movement with 5 waves (down-up-down-up-down) instead of the "classic" corrective 3 wave pattern, with the last wave being much flatter than the previous ones. Your current prediction (very close to February's) would match that too.

Cycle degree bear market scenario...

https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/20260610-btcusd.png

My idea is similar to this one, I have the ④ to Mar 2020 rather than Dec 2018, also considering a possible alternation. Now we are going to close wave 4.
Is it a possible scenario in your opinion?

1. Please note the orthodox top of wave 1 is 59000, regarding a possible overlap of wave 4 which is still ongoing.
2. ⑤ can't be an ending diagonal as we had an impulse in wave 1.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

My idea is similar to this one, I have the ④ to Mar 2020 rather than Dec 2018, also considering a possible alternation. Now we are going to close wave 4.
Is it a possible scenario in your opinion?

The uptrend rise in the first half of 2019 unfolded in an impulsive five wave structure; and hence, cannot be a B-wave as part of a wave ④ triangle...

[sparkl3t]

I agree until the 5 truncated, IMHO = (W). The 2019 uptrend doesn't look necessarily an impulse, I see a zigzag ABC = (X), B is basically the running flat you use for wave 4 in May 2019. ④ = (Y) = ABC a bit different than yours but it's fine.

④ complex flat, not triangle.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I agree until the 5 truncated, IMHO = (W). The 2019 uptrend doesn't look necessarily an impulse, I see a zigzag ABC = (X), B is basically the running flat you use for wave 4 in May 2019. ④ = (Y) = ABC a bit different than yours but it's fine.

④ complex flat, not triangle.

GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) launched publicly on the OTC markets in 2015 and began trading as the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024; and hence, arguably had the largest volume participation of Bitcoin trading a decade ago.

24/7 overnight markets such as commodities and forex are more pronounced with corrective waves; and hence, Bitcoin may also behave like forex markets (i.e. a currency) and/or commodity markets (i.e. gold).

Since GBTC trades as an equity, with greater volume participation, the Elliott Wave principle in regards to impulsive waves, as opposed to corrective waves, is more pronounced in equity markets.

On 06-FEB-2019, GBTC bottomed, which may correspond with an orthodox bottom as a truncated wave in actual Bitcoin...

[josegines]

When do you consider wave 2 to be over and the start of wave 3 confirmed?

When it exceeds $82k?

A five wave advance beyond the 15-JUN-2026 high of $67,260 would be the earliest signal to suggest a new bull market has a chance to commence.

Wow! The initial push fell short of $67k, and from there a corrective movement began. I suppose if it surpasses $67k, we should look for a 1 and a 2 from the lows, with an exciting 3 underway.

[kunt3p3r]

https://ibb.co/0RVgfx8H

Unfortunately I cant count this movement as an impulse or leading diagonal, price wants to go higher but I suspect like a corrective abc.

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A case for an impulsive bullish count...

[josegines]

When will we know if today's rally (a major short squeeze) is Wave 3, which continues the uptrend, or is it a trap designed to push prices to new lows in the coming weeks?

So far, it has broken through some levels, but we still need confirmation from the weekly close.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

When will we know if today's rally (a major short squeeze) is Wave 3, which continues the uptrend, or is it a trap designed to push prices to new lows in the coming weeks?

So far, it has broken through some levels, but we still need confirmation from the weekly close.

Yes, a weekly close above approx $67,000 ought to start favouring a bullish count...

[Kryptowerk]

When will we know if today's rally (a major short squeeze) is Wave 3, which continues the uptrend, or is it a trap designed to push prices to new lows in the coming weeks?

So far, it has broken through some levels, but we still need confirmation from the weekly close.

Slightly too sudden to be stable, but let's see.
If we can hold above $69k until next week I would turn more bullish, but right now this is a very suspicious movement.
Not concerned regarding longer time frames ofc.

[josegines]

The sensible thing to do is wait for the weekly close, indeed, although by then BTC might be $5,000 or $10,000 higher.

I have a feeling BTC could rise as quickly as it fell from $82,000.

That would take it back to $82,000 in just over a week, right by the end of August.

I wasn't expecting such a volatile August, although there are still 10 days to go.

[josegines]

When do you consider wave 2 to be over and the start of wave 3 confirmed?

When it exceeds $82k?

A five wave advance beyond the 15-JUN-2026 high of $67,260 would be the earliest signal to suggest a new bull market has a chance to commence.

Wow! The initial push fell short of $67k, and from there a corrective movement began. I suppose if it surpasses $67k, we should look for a 1 and a 2 from the lows, with an exciting 3 underway.

Undoubtedly a very intense August for BTC

If the drop from $82k was fast,
what the heck!!
Let's go back up just as fast.

It's like when it was at $82k,
someone thought they needed 3 months with the price at $60k to buy it cheaper

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

First image looks very ambitious but I would love it to be how everything plays out. Short term direction in the lower image would be nice too, I just hope this isn’t just a bear market rally. Previous cycles would suggest we have a final low to put in Q4 which would confirm the cycle bottom. I’d be delighted if the bottom is already in at 57k though.

[sparkl3t]

Short term direction in the lower image would be nice too, I just hope this isn’t just a bear market rally. Previous cycles would suggest we have a final low to put in Q4 which would confirm the cycle bottom. I’d be delighted if the bottom is already in at 57k though.

Partially agree. Not really for previous cycles, I focus more on internal waves from Feb '26. I believe we are drawing and going to close a B (flat) and we need to hit around 60k (the orthodox bottom, while 57k could actually be the lowest point) another time to close the bear wave from Oct '25.

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