2026 Elliott Wave

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It looks like your February prediction was quite good (until now ).

In any case, you've never predicted a significantly lower bottom than the one we've seen a few days ago, at most in the 48-55k area. I would not be surprised if we retest this level indeed (which already was quite relevant in 2024) and then go up. If the 50k level is broken significantly, from my limited Elliott knowledge I guess your conclusion would be that the 2025 wasn't a Wave 1 but a Wave 5 already, and that at least one significant step lower could follow (perhaps in the 38-40 or in the 28-33k area). But let's hope that isn't the case

By the way, the 2022 bear seems also have been a downward movement with 5 waves (down-up-down-up-down) instead of the "classic" corrective 3 wave pattern, with the last wave being much flatter than the previous ones. Your current prediction (very close to February's) would match that too.

Cycle degree bear market scenario...

[josegines]

When do you consider wave 2 to be over and the start of wave 3 confirmed?

When it exceeds $82k?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

When do you consider wave 2 to be over and the start of wave 3 confirmed?

When it exceeds $82k?

A five wave advance beyond the 15-JUN-2026 high of $67,260 would be the earliest signal to suggest a new bull market has a chance to commence.

[sparkl3t]

It looks like your February prediction was quite good (until now ).

In any case, you've never predicted a significantly lower bottom than the one we've seen a few days ago, at most in the 48-55k area. I would not be surprised if we retest this level indeed (which already was quite relevant in 2024) and then go up. If the 50k level is broken significantly, from my limited Elliott knowledge I guess your conclusion would be that the 2025 wasn't a Wave 1 but a Wave 5 already, and that at least one significant step lower could follow (perhaps in the 38-40 or in the 28-33k area). But let's hope that isn't the case

By the way, the 2022 bear seems also have been a downward movement with 5 waves (down-up-down-up-down) instead of the "classic" corrective 3 wave pattern, with the last wave being much flatter than the previous ones. Your current prediction (very close to February's) would match that too.

Cycle degree bear market scenario...

https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/20260610-btcusd.png

My idea is similar to this one, I have the ④ to Mar 2020 rather than Dec 2018, also considering a possible alternation. Now we are going to close wave 4.
Is it a possible scenario in your opinion?

1. Please note the orthodox top of wave 1 is 59000, regarding a possible overlap of wave 4 which is still ongoing.
2. ⑤ can't be an ending diagonal as we had an impulse in wave 1.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

My idea is similar to this one, I have the ④ to Mar 2020 rather than Dec 2018, also considering a possible alternation. Now we are going to close wave 4.
Is it a possible scenario in your opinion?

The uptrend rise in the first half of 2019 unfolded in an impulsive five wave structure; and hence, cannot be a B-wave as part of a wave ④ triangle...

[sparkl3t]

I agree until the 5 truncated, IMHO = (W). The 2019 uptrend doesn't look necessarily an impulse, I see a zigzag ABC = (X), B is basically the running flat you use for wave 4 in May 2019. ④ = (Y) = ABC a bit different than yours but it's fine.

④ complex flat, not triangle.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I agree until the 5 truncated, IMHO = (W). The 2019 uptrend doesn't look necessarily an impulse, I see a zigzag ABC = (X), B is basically the running flat you use for wave 4 in May 2019. ④ = (Y) = ABC a bit different than yours but it's fine.

④ complex flat, not triangle.

GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) launched publicly on the OTC markets in 2015 and began trading as the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024; and hence, arguably had the largest volume participation of Bitcoin trading a decade ago.

24/7 overnight markets such as commodities and forex are more pronounced with corrective waves; and hence, Bitcoin may also behave like forex markets (i.e. a currency) and/or commodity markets (i.e. gold).

Since GBTC trades as an equity, with greater volume participation, the Elliott Wave principle in regards to impulsive waves, as opposed to corrective waves, is more pronounced in equity markets.

On 06-FEB-2019, GBTC bottomed, which may correspond with an orthodox bottom as a truncated wave in actual Bitcoin...