The long term price is at $58000 and is increasing. Would you invest in it?

[d5000]

The shortest (simple and straightforward) moving average which hasn't declined even in the deepest bear markets is currently at $58,000. It is the 4-year SMA (simple moving average) - i.e. the average price of the last 4 years.

I think the 4-year SMA is an excellent measure to see if the long term trend is still intact. If this indicator goes down for more than a few days (which can happen in some extreme market conditions), it may indicate that there is a fundamental problem with the long term price trend.

But currently it is going up. Since the start of 2026, it went from approximately 56,300$ to 57,300$ - almost a 2% increase, despite of the declining spot price.

Here's a little chart:


(Source is the Bitstamp price at BitcoinWisdom).

Unfortunately the pic is a little bit small, so I write out the major milestones and year-end values since 2020:

- January 2020: $6600
- January 2021: $7900
- $10,000: March 2021
- January 2022: $18,400
- $20,000: March 2022
- January 2023: $23,300
- January 2024: $29,000
- $30,000: February 2024
- $40,000: November 2024
- January 2025: $42,000
- $50,000: July 2025
- January 2026: $56400

If we could invest in this indicator, we would have an asset that steadily grows. In theory, it would be possible to realize it with a combination of smart contracts, for example with Discreet Log Contracts.

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

(I am not planning to implement such a contract myself, although I have investigated a bit how it could be done. But if someone would implement that thing, I'd be really interested!)

[JaanusRaim]

The shortest (simple and straightforward) moving average which hasn't declined even in the deepest bear markets is currently at $58,000. It is the 4-year SMA (simple moving average) - i.e. the average price of the last 4 years.

I think the 4-year SMA is an excellent measure to see if the long term trend is still intact. If this indicator goes down for more than a few days (which can happen in some extreme market conditions), it may indicate that there is a fundamental problem with the long term price trend.

But currently it is going up. Since the start of 2026, it went from approximately 56,300$ to 57,300$ - almost a 2% increase, despite of the declining spot price.

Here's a little chart:


(Source is the Bitstamp price at BitcoinWisdom).

Unfortunately the pic is a little bit small, so I write out the major milestones and year-end values since 2020:

- January 2020: $6600
- January 2021: $7900
- $10,000: March 2021
- January 2022: $18,400
- $20,000: March 2022
- January 2023: $23,300
- January 2024: $29,000
- $30,000: February 2024
- $40,000: November 2024
- January 2025: $42,000
- $50,000: July 2025
- January 2026: $56400

If we could invest in this indicator, we would have an asset that steadily grows. In theory, it would be possible to realize it with a combination of smart contracts, for example with Discreet Log Contracts.

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

(I am not planning to implement such a contract myself, although I have investigated a bit how it could be done. But if someone would implement that thing, I'd be really interested!)

This statistic is interesting and useful but not in such direct sense. You just can not extrapolate past into the future. You have not seen a real bear market yet 

[d5000]

This statistic is interesting and useful but not in such direct sense. You just can not extrapolate past into the future. You have not seen a real bear market yet  

To make the 4-year MA fall significantly, you would need a bear market either longer than 2.5 years (the longest until now was 1.3 years, lasting from November 2013 to February 2015) or more extreme than even the 2013-15 bear (with almost 90% loss from high to the lowest dip of ~$130). The bear markets in Bitcoin were quite harsh, so it's interesting what a "real" bear market would look like for you

Of course it is likely that in some moment Bitcoin could enter negative territory for longer than until now. But at the same time, volatility is decreasing. Even the recent price drop was still much milder than the drops in 2021/22 and 2018.

So the decreasing volatility is also helping that this indicator will probably grow for a long time.

Many seem to use the 200 WMA (200 week MA) for a similar purpose, which is almost on the same value now.

PS: I'm evaluating also the SMA-768 as a quite interesting base for a long term trend. It does fall in bear markets, but smooths out the curve so much that even the harshed bear market until now hasn't made it lose more than 25%. Interestingly, it seems the 2022 bear was more bearish than previous bear markets for this indicator even if volatility is lower, possibly because the price in 2021 stood very high for a long time.

[JaanusRaim]

This statistic is interesting and useful but not in such direct sense. You just can not extrapolate past into the future. You have not seen a real bear market yet  

The bear markets in Bitcoin were quite harsh, so it's interesting what a "real" bear market would look like for you

The previous bears have all been only (or almost only) crypto-specific, they have emerged in the presence of the overall economical prosperity, all other prices (like stocks, real estate, art works and so on) have always only increased and increased during the previous crypto bears... Crypto has until now never met the overall economic crash like 2008.... but such is coming sooner or later (rather sooner if we look at for example the P/E ratio of Standard and Poor 500).

[d5000]

Crypto has already experienced the COVID recession and the post-COVID crash in 2021/22. The 2008 crash was of course deeper but it's possible it wouldn't affect crypto that much, taking into account the extreme situation in the COVID crisis which led even to a crypto (and stock) surge, despite on many people losing their jobs and devastating conditions in several real-world economy sectors (tech surged, however).

The 2007-09 bear in the US stock indices also lasted less than 2 years. It would of course be possible that if such a crash hits Bitcoin just in the "most inconvenient" part of a cycle (e.g. after a prolonged down trend) that this results again in a very deep bear like in 2014 or 2018. But that crash would have to be really extreme, and also global (not only in the US), to be worse than that.

It would also be not a catastrophe for an moving-average-based financial product based on Bitcoin's long term price to descend a bit. Even in extreme conditions it's unlikely such an index loses more than 20%, if there's nothing wrong with Bitcoin's fundamentals (and if there's something wrong then we're doomed anyway ).

[Perfectbaby]

The shortest (simple and straightforward) moving average which hasn't declined even in the deepest bear markets is currently at $58,000. It is the 4-year SMA (simple moving average) - i.e. the average price of the last 4 years.

I think the 4-year SMA is an excellent measure to see if the long term trend is still intact. If this indicator goes down for more than a few days (which can happen in some extreme market conditions), it may indicate that there is a fundamental problem with the long term price trend.

But currently it is going up. Since the start of 2026, it went from approximately 56,300$ to 57,300$ - almost a 2% increase, despite of the declining spot price.

Here's a little chart:


(Source is the Bitstamp price at BitcoinWisdom).

Unfortunately the pic is a little bit small, so I write out the major milestones and year-end values since 2020:

- January 2020: $6600
- January 2021: $7900
- $10,000: March 2021
- January 2022: $18,400
- $20,000: March 2022
- January 2023: $23,300
- January 2024: $29,000
- $30,000: February 2024
- $40,000: November 2024
- January 2025: $42,000
- $50,000: July 2025
- January 2026: $56400

If we could invest in this indicator, we would have an asset that steadily grows. In theory, it would be possible to realize it with a combination of smart contracts, for example with Discreet Log Contracts.

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

(I am not planning to implement such a contract myself, although I have investigated a bit how it could be done. But if someone would implement that thing, I'd be really interested!)

I won't invest on the indicators as I know that doesn't really speak much about the market, most times market could be determined by news which could be positive or negative, and when the news comes even though it is at top you would see it melting down so quickly and even when it's down it could see it doubling simultaneously pushing above its previous price. However, anyone who wants and truly wants to capitalize on those indicators would likely missed the whole Bitcoin trend as the price are always very difficulties to be predictable or factorising.

[Ambatman]

An interesting model but I believe it's reliant on how Bitcoin performed in the past
Thus lagging behind and may take time to account for recent changes just like CPI's.

But for it's less volatility I'd pick it over an ETF if it's like a product
But personally I'd just stick with DCA
Simple and more flexible.

[JaanusRaim]

Crypto has already experienced the COVID recession and the post-COVID crash in 2021/22. The 2008 crash was of course deeper but it's possible it wouldn't affect crypto that much, taking into account the extreme situation in the COVID crisis which led even to a crypto (and stock) surge, despite on many people losing their jobs and devastating conditions in several real-world economy sectors (tech surged, however).

The 2007-09 bear in the US stock indices also lasted less than 2 years. It would of course be possible that if such a crash hits Bitcoin just in the "most inconvenient" part of a cycle (e.g. after a prolonged down trend) that this results again in a very deep bear like in 2014 or 2018. But that crash would have to be really extreme, and also global (not only in the US), to be worse than that.

It would also be not a catastrophe for an moving-average-based financial product based on Bitcoin's long term price to descend a bit. Even in extreme conditions it's unlikely such an index loses more than 20%, if there's nothing wrong with Bitcoin's fundamentals (and if there's something wrong then we're doomed anyway ).

Yes, March 2020 "flash crash" was the event that is most similar to (possible) future economic crash. Standard and Poor 500 fell by ca 1/3 in one month from February 14 to March 14 (from 3400 to 2300) and Bitcoin by ca 1/2 (from 10000 usd to 5000 usd) at the same period. Useful (though of course not perfect) event to study the  possible effects of real long-lasting economic crises.

I assumed that Bitcoin will react stronger (with much bigger price fall) to such crash than it actually did.

[STT]

Its valid to invest but also we still might see the BTC price drop below the 200 week average and people tend not to like being underwater like that.  Price does not determine value but people generally avoid that apparent loss and that is why the market is the way it is, full of fear.
  The advice for anyone less brave then to buy into challenged prices is by reference to a shorter term moving average like the 200 day or 50 day even.  We have burst upwards but that can fall back too, if that should happen it might be that reference to momentum below that very long term is useful.

When all the moving averages and various other factors align it tends to be far less scary a passage to buy and hold BTC.  That might be what people do, generally more buyers appear once the weather is better and thats just how it tends to go imo.

[d5000]

Yes, March 2020 "flash crash" was the event that is most similar to (possible) future economic crash. Standard and Poor 500 fell by ca 1/3 in one month from February 14 to March 14 (from 3400 to 2300) and Bitcoin by ca 1/2 (from 10000 usd to 5000 usd) at the same period.

So we could estimate: If Bitcoin tends to exaggerate S&P 500 crashes (caused by external factors such as economic crisis) by 50% (Bitcoin's -50% is 50% higher than the S&P's 33% loss, or 33* 1.5 = 49.5) then, in an event like 2008/09 with 50%, Bitcoin could fall 75% (50 * 1.5 = 75). That would be very close to the actual bear markets Bitcoin had in the past, like the 2022 bear market with 76% loss. Nothing really "out of the normal".

I acknowledge that such a crash may happen after a period of profit taking, like it happened in the COVID crash (when people were still taking profits from the 2019 intermediate rally which took BTC from $3000 to $14000), and then the crash may be worse and affect the long MAs to the downside.

But I have two arguments which counter this:

1) The COVID crash happened in 2020. Bitcoin was about double as volatile in the 2020-22 era (2-5%, not counting the COVID spike of 9%) as it is now in 2024+ (1-2.5%).

2) Bitcoin's price is driven by estimations about future adoption as a global currency or store of value asset. This wouldn't change because of an economic crisis as no stock market crash "touches" the fundamental advantages of Bitcoin. This would mean that like in the COVID crash, there would be massive "dip buying" once the price gets really attractive. Only if Bitcoin's fundamentals are changing (e.g. future adoption becomes unlikely for whatever reason, for example the emergence of a type of decentralized money which is better than BTC in every aspect) this would change, but then an economic crash would not change much. I'd think that in this case we would witness the fall much earlier than in the crisis itself.

Its valid to invest but also we still might see the BTC price drop below the 200 week average and people tend not to like being underwater like that.

History until now has shown that every time the BTC price dropped below the 200 week average, it recovered quite quickly. This means: "People" (mostly new investors) may not like being underwater, but "strong hands" do like deep dips and will benefit from them.

Anyway, my point of the OP is a bit different: if you could invest in such long term MAs, you would be almost always make profit. Which makes Bitcoin's long term trend a very reliable "store of value", if you could invest in it.

An interesting model but I believe it's reliant on how Bitcoin performed in the past
Thus lagging behind and may take time to account for recent changes just like CPI's.

The "lagging" has the advantage that it almost erases all the short time swings like CPI changes (which would not influence the long term trend or adoption trend).

What could happen of course is that the fundamentals of Bitcoin change, and the long term trend is still high. Let's say a technology appears that is better than BTC in every aspect, and BTC goes down to close to zero, with the long term MA deflating only slowly. However, if you invested in a "MA product", the MA would still not crash that deep until very late. And there could always be MA buyers even in such a grim situation if there is some hope for Bitcoin to recover, because in this case the MA would eventually grow again.

[Alvin_talk]

Good finds!!
IMO the indicator is more like a confidence and morale boost for investors rather than something one would like to invest on directly. The reasons why I would probably not invest is simple, I believe it has little to no asymmetric upsides. Sure bitcoin volatility is quite uncomfortable but it is also what gives the possibility of a life changing gain.

Just like Iambatman,  I believe the DCA strategy is better of so long we keep on accumulating because it allows us to benefit from both long term upward trends and the volatility the indicator intentionally removes (ie. we can also accumulate more bitcoin in the occurrence of a dip).

[d5000]

I'd like to follow the price graph periodically. So here we have the update for April:


This time the source is Binance: https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/binance/btcusdt

Since February, the 4 year (208 week - blueish line) indicator has continued to grow, but very slowly due to the relatively low price. From just below 58000 we are now at about 59500$. This growth could of course accelerate if the price stays above 75k. We will probably break 60k soon.

An interesting fact: The 2-year SMA (104 week - yellow line) has still not fallen significantly in this bearish movement. Instead it grew until stalling at $86000 and now it is growing again a little bit, even with the price below.

As you can see in the chart, in "real" bear markets like 2022 the 104 week SMA fell too. It's not visible in this chart, but this happened even in the short 2019-2020 bear. And what also gives hope is that when that indicator began to stall, the low of the bear market was already very close.

Maybe we are not even in a "real" bear if we look at this indicator. It could also be simply a dip in a bull market like in mid-2021. Supercycle vibes? Or bull trap before the final capitulation?

The reasons why I would probably not invest is simple, I believe it has little to no asymmetric upsides. Sure bitcoin volatility is quite uncomfortable but it is also what gives the possibility of a life changing gain.

Sorry for the delay in answering, I hadn't seen that post

The attractiveness of an asset following that indicator is just that it has that possible "life changing" upside too. Only it lags a bit (up to 6-7 years, but mostly not more than 2, for example the 208-week SMA is now close to the spot price in early 2024).

If Bitcoin is a success and eventually stabilizes at a high price (let's say a million USD), then all moving averages will eventually approach it. And that's imo a major plus of such an asset. The problem is only: If Bitcoin does not suceed, and at some time was overvalued (let's say if we never see 126000 again) then this indicator will indeed not yield the same results, it will instead grow slower and slower, eventually stall and then slowly go down. Ethereum is an example where this may be already happening for the 4 year SMA.

But on the other hand, most people miss the tops. These people have thus more time to sell even in an "unsuccessful" scenario (ETH or LTC scenario) if they invested in this long term indicator

[Alvin_talk]

If Bitcoin is a success and eventually stabilizes at a high price (let's say a million USD), then all moving averages will eventually approach it. And that's imo a major plus of such an asset.

Correct but think about it this way, if Bitcoin is a success who benefits more? ( I.e the person who invests in this SMA indicator or someone who actually uses DCA method to invest directly in bitcoin? Assuming they invested thesame amount over this period).

Let's break it down a bit using an imaginary bitcoin price data (monthly price) over the period Jan, 2026 to Dec, 2029 as shown below:

Month	|	2026	|	2027	|	2028	|	2029	|
Jan	|	80	|	230	|	350	|	80	|
Feb	|	85	|	170	|	350	|	200	|
Mar	|	83	|	200	|	365	|	230	|
Apr	|	89	|	85	|	330	|	500	|
May	|	92	|	120	|	380	|	590	|
Jun	|	61	|	79	|	327	|	700	|
Jul	|	99	|	200	|	312	|	750	|
Aug	|	100	|	205	|	330	|	790	|
Sep	|	80	|	209	|	390	|	800	|
Oct	|	110	|	180	|	381	|	890	|
Nov	|	130	|	180	|	341	|	500	|
Dec	|	150	|	160	|	333	|	950	|

Let's say we have two investors (Investor 1, Investor 2). Investor 1 invests in the SMA asset (assuming it existed) while investor 2 invests directly in bitcoin using DCA strategy. Please perform your calculation if possible but from what I get,  Investor 2 almost made 2x profit of investor 1.

Don't get me wrong, there is no loss on both side if bitcoin succeeds but eventually one asset out performs the other in the long run. The only major benefit or advantage I see in the proposed SMA indicator is that it reduces FUD but a real investor don't care about these things.

[d5000]

Correct but think about it this way, if Bitcoin is a success who benefits more? ( I.e the person who invests in this SMA indicator or someone who actually uses DCA method to invest directly in bitcoin?

If we assume there is a "stable final price", then both should benefit approximately the same, because the investment of the DCA investors should converge to the moving average.

What you probably did wrong in your calculation is to not take into account the lag, i.e. of course you would not reach the target price in 2029 but only after 2030.

There may be some edge cases (e.g. price stayed very low for 3 years, then spiked for some weeks and then crashed again) where the DCA investor could be lucky and has to pay less for the same number of Bitcoins.

But the main advantages of the "invest in the SMA indicator" are the following ones:

- You need the Bitcoins in the middle of a crypto winter (e.g. in an emergency). Or you simply don't want to wait if you have an opportunity to spend a big part of them. With the SMA you would still get very likely a profit even if you invested at an ATH.
- The success of Bitcoin remains unclear and we see also longer bear markets than just 1-2 years. This looks currently unlikely but is always a possibility. With the SMA the declined would be very slow and thus you can expect to still get a big part of your initial investment back even when Bitcoin almost seems to "die".

So basically: the "SMA investment idea" isn't for everybody. But it could be interesting for some groups.

[Hatchy]

So basically: the "SMA investment idea" isn't for everybody. But it could be interesting for some groups.

I think it will then depend on your amount of capital..For people with large amounts of capital such investment would be very much interesting because 1% gain would be something very much significant in terms of profits and I feel they might make even more profits that a regular bitcoin investment who would use the DCA and have been investing consistently for over 4years period(but I doubt though )..The indicator sounds interesting because judging from the risk to reward ratio you would be in profits much longer than other Investors, you will only be a bit slower in terms of price movements..But let's not forget that the main action isn't always how fast. It's when price respects the trend and stick to it much longer than expected.

SMA = low risk, low return, lower stress
DCA = high return potential, but higher drawdown

[d5000]

I have played around a bit with the idea of the "long term price". The problem of the pure 200 week SMA is of course the lag. So I've projected the price 100 weeks into the future, getting a "Displaced Moving Average" (DMA).

The chart for the last years is the following:



You can check the chart and the query at dune.com:

- https://dune.com/d5k/bitcoin-long-term-price-indicators
- https://dune.com/queries/7782494

The indicator is currently at ~87000 USD. The raw value of the SMA is ~62000, plus 25000 for the SMA change in the last 100 weeks. That chart indeed looks more like an average price, as it is close to the average between highs and lows.

As an alternative there is also the Hull Moving Average (HMA). I'll see if I find a chart with the HMA for 200 weeks, otherwise I may build that on Dune or Tradingview too.

[EarnOnVictor]

I think the 4-year SMA is an excellent measure to see if the long term trend is still intact. If this indicator goes down for more than a few days (which can happen in some extreme market conditions), it may indicate that there is a fundamental problem with the long term price trend.

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

This is not a good idea even if you want to be a diehard Bitcoiner. I would better not watch any indicator and rely solely on Bitcoin principles and tradition, rather than use it.

The indicator could hold imaginarily true for the everlasting HODLers in deceit, after all, they are the core Bitcoiners who needs something that looks everlasting as well. But they should be ready to part ways with almost nothing if something goes sore and people start reaccumulating (more money).

The 4-year SMA can't be used as a reasonable metric, IMO, as enough of activities still means nothing to it, which makes it very dangerous. The most serious institutions would go for the maximum of SMA200/D or something like SMA20/Monthly max, or  something close. Even if that's too small, which I don't think could, far lesser than 4-year SMA could be better because it averages the price reasonably faster than the 4-year that looks dead than you think.

[savetheFORUM]

Good finds!!
IMO the indicator is more like a confidence and morale boost for investors rather than something one would like to invest on directly. The reasons why I would probably not invest is simple, I believe it has little to no asymmetric upsides. Sure bitcoin volatility is quite uncomfortable but it is also what gives the possibility of a life changing gain.

Just like Iambatman,  I believe the DCA strategy is better of so long we keep on accumulating because it allows us to benefit from both long term upward trends and the volatility the indicator intentionally removes (ie. we can also accumulate more bitcoin in the occurrence of a dip).

I think there is no difference. But if one is already here before, then what you said there can apply on them and for those who are new on here, it is also best to invest right away. We invest for the long term, so short term speculation should be frowned upon. You even said that volatility is our ally. It may still be uncomfortable for those that are still new but they shall soon be used to this.

Not all has a lot of money to keep on accumulating but DCA may help them extend their budget, as we can only invest smaller amounts here, just in case a much better opportunity comes. The indicator if how much max BTC we want to invest is still there. For those who are buying more in the dip, they can be hybrid.

[GreatArkansas]

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

For me, if my goal is only to make money, I can see that this is a low-risk, low-reward investment (the contract). Because it has less volatility than Bitcoin itself, it's good. I would love to invest in it.

What I can only see is that the disadvantage is the mega pump or mega bull run we often experience from the past of Bitcoin, but on the other hand, a bloody market also exists, so for me.

It will differ for the risk tolerance of a person who wants to invest in this kind of contract.
Since you already brought this up, is there any market that has like this? I am curious, first time I've heard this.

[d5000]

Since you already brought this up, is there any market that has like this? I am curious, first time I've heard this.

I have searched the web for this, but didn't find an example that really matches what I'm describing here, neither in the crypto nor in the stock market.

Closest thing I've found are "trend-following investment funds" like the Pacer Trendpilot ETF [1]. They automatically sell the base asset if it falls below a moving average, and invest the money in "safer" investment vehicles like bonds. This means the moving average works like a "bottom" for these funds. However, of course, this means also that there may be trades that later would be seen as "wrong", like when the fund sells the asset in a small dip below the moving average and thus misses the rebound.


[1] https://www.paceretfs.com/products/trendpilot