2014, 2018, 2022, 2026

[arwin100]

So you believe that the reason why some institutions or goverments didn't go fully IN, is because Saylor is holding most of Bitcoin's supply? Is there a scenario where he's actually forced to liquidate basically everything?

I don't agree that the reason they did not go all IN was that Saylor was holding so much Bitcoin supply. They could have gotten any amount they wanted and quietly kept accumulating more as time went on. They simply do not fully buy into the idea yet. So much uncertainty for them.

And why should Saylor liquidate everything now? He has held on for so long, he had a chance to liquidate at higher prices but didn't. So why take such a loss now? I believe he knows that what this means is that he is going to have to hold for an even longer time.

I agree with you since what Saylor's company owned is just a 3% of total supply of Bitcoin. So that's nothing especially if they decide to buy and their actions will provably influence more institutions to accumulate more Bitcoin. If they do that for sure any movements done by Strategy will not bring much bigger effect especially if lots of institution including governments will continue to accumulate Bitcoin maybe to add it up on their reserves.

Also for sure he won't think about liquidating now, Saylor aims for long term and for sure that what currently happening now is part of challenge which again for sure they can surpass later on once Bitcoin price recovers.

[BitBakerr1]

If you're here long enough, you stop asking "why is this happening?" and you start asking "who's still here when it happens?"

Some people keep asking why, even though they've been registered on this forum since 2013 (the 1st BTC cycle)!

Sports/bet gambling (aka instant gratification) has ruined their already rotten leftist brain...

I don’t think anyone who has been here since 2013 will still be asking why this is happening right now in bitcoin, I believe no one will be asking such questions because they should have known how Bitcoin has been falling and rising is not something new. Even though you are not investing in bitcoin and you have been in this forum since 2013 you should know that what is happening in bitcoin it’s something that one should not panic about because it has happened before and bitcoin still got up in price.
What people should be thinking about now is to accumulate more with less price, this is the perfect time to accumulate more bitcoin.
I have been using the DCA strategy but from next week I will accumulate aggressively with my reserve funds I’m just waiting for bitcoin to go down more in price.

[fikrett]

If you're here long enough, you stop asking "why is this happening?" and you start asking "who's still here when it happens?"

Some people keep asking why, even though they've been registered on this forum since 2013 (the 1st BTC cycle)!

Sports/bet gambling (aka instant gratification) has ruined their already rotten leftist brain...

Nothing wrong from feeling the same, but we should react properly to just another pitfall trap.

[Marvelockg]

The bear market is not a punishment.

It's the tuition fee.
See you at $40k.

We are all aware that the market is a combination of the bull and the bear and that while we witness bull, that times of bear will also come but what most investor never consider is that it is not going to be one sweet phase that they can easily walk through. Even as someone that was not around during times like in the 2022 and might not be able to tell how it felt like, i still know what it feels like seeing bitcoin at $39k and seeing it move from that point above $100k to even the last ATH. the longer one stays invested and sees how bitcoin always recovers after every DIP, easier it is for one to remain invested and fret so little even when others are backing down.

[Mame89]

Here we go again.

Same vibes. Same no coiner tweets. Same doom thumbnails with red arrows screaming "BITCOIN IS DEAD (FOR REAL THIS TIME)".

Every cycle the same way:

In 2014, it was Mt. Gox and the end of magic internet money.

In 2018, it was ICOs and the realization that whitepapers don't print cash.

In 2022, it was leverage stacked on leverage and paper billionaires.

Now we're in the fourth episode.

People always say "this time is different."

Spoiler alert: these are the same people who can't hold for more than 4 years.

Time is never different. Only the people panicking are.

If you're here long enough, you stop asking "why is this happening?" and you start asking "who's still here when it happens?"

The bear market is not a punishment.

It's the tuition fee.

See you at $40k.

Yea see you at $40k and when we reach there many people who came for bitcoins wealth would have left. They won’t ask why bitcoin is pumping when it was going up above $120k but now that we are heading to $40k they ask questions like bitcoin has scammed them.

Yes, that's right. It's certainly tough to think about, but even though it feels daunting, let's look at the history of maximum declines from previous cycles, as the OP mentioned. If we look closely Bitcoin's current declines are common, so there's no need to panic just wait for the right time to buy.

This year if we follow the historical trend of shallower lows, the decline could reach 70% or 80% and this would certainly be a maturity target. So, perhaps we'll reach $40,000 at the lowest point, or we should be prepared to pick up at $30,000. Because if we look at this cycle, there's a slight difference in pattern; this time we missed the potential for a 2x or 3x increase. What I mean is, if this cycle is similar to previous ones the Bitcoin price should reach 200,000 or more not $126,000. Personally, if we experience a 70-80% decline I'd wait at $30,000.

[tbct_mt2]

This year if we follow the historical trend of shallower lows, the decline could reach 70% or 80% and this would certainly be a maturity target. So, perhaps we'll reach $40,000 at the lowest point, or we should be prepared to pick up at $30,000. Because if we look at this cycle, there's a slight difference in pattern; this time we missed the potential for a 2x or 3x increase. What I mean is, if this cycle is similar to previous ones the Bitcoin price should reach 200,000 or more not $126,000. Personally, if we experience a 70-80% decline I'd wait at $30,000.

This chart from ChartsBtc on X can be very helpful and support your post well.

If Bitcoin will be corrected 60% from all time high, its bottom in a bear market would be $50,000 and you can use other % of correction from this market cycle all time high for calculating different bear market bottoms.

From $60k to $50k, it is not too far with about 20% further correction only and if the world continues with war, chaos and turmoils, Bitcoin will have other deep dives. This bear market looks to happen very fastly and Bitcoin has a free fall than ever before since its market cap and trading volume became big enough.

[ZAINmalik75]

In 2014, it was Mt. Gox and the end of magic internet money.

In 2018, it was ICOs and the realization that whitepapers don't print cash.

In 2022, it was leverage stacked on leverage and paper billionaires.

-------------
The bear market is not a punishment.

It's the tuition fee.

See you at $40k.

In 2026, it is Epstein. Out of the box it was. By the way, is it really Epstein because people are saying it is him, but I think that's just the dumbest reason the community, whales, or market makers have found to spread fud and dump the market.

Those who beleive it are the dumbest. The bear market is a heaven for buyers, everything is cheap but we are talking about bitcoin and it is really cheap. People have forgotten the time so quickly when it was trading above $100k and all of them were so bullish and optimist that, bitcoin will hit $150k to $250k. Now where has all that optimism gone.

Just like you said, here we go again.

[tbterryboy]

If Bitcoin will be corrected 60% from all time high, its bottom in a bear market would be $50,000 and you can use other % of correction from this market cycle all time high for calculating different bear market bottoms.

From $60k to $50k, it is not too far with about 20% further correction only and if the world continues with war, chaos and turmoils, Bitcoin will have other deep dives. This bear market looks to happen very fastly and Bitcoin has a free fall than ever before since its market cap and trading volume became big enough.

It usually goes down 80% or so, not 60%, I do not know where you got the 60% from but it's clear even on that chart that it's nearly 80% drop most of the time, maybe a bit more or a bit less but around those levels. The reality is that if we drop 80$ that would mean 25k give or take, because 20% of 125k is 25k and that is the bottom we will fall to.

Of course this could be different for now, because we have banks and investment companies like blackrock who are holding a lot and may not be selling as much as retail so there are more holders so maybe it will be a bit higher. I think it will be neither 50k nor 25k, it will be somewhere around the middle, like 30 or 35 thousand dollars. That would make sense on the long run.

[Cryptmuster]

Maybe 40k, or even lower but I don’t think it will go much below 30k. You’re right, everything repeats again, and maybe the only thing I regret is not selling part of my bitcoins so I could buy more now. But on the other hand, I understand how difficult it was to choose the right moment to sell at the top and how hard it would be now to find the right time to buy. So it turned out that I became a holder who will keep hold for a few more years.

And see you at 200k in the next bull run! 

[imthegreat]

See you at $40k.

Not everything is so rosy and clear-cut. There are no four-year decline cycles.
Here are the exact years of fall:
Previously, Bitcoin typically fell by 80 percent on average (years 11, 15, and 18).
But in 2021, there was a 50% correction, as if for the first time this showed that the market could start buying such a good asset even earlier, because it wasn't just a decline but also a sell-off.
But in 2022, there was another 80% drop, but that was the last powerful correction in, so to speak, modern history. Nothing like this has happened since, although I, and I think many of you, fully expected it, which is why we were cautious about new ATHs.
Starting in 2023, a powerful upward trend will begin, with only minor pullbacks:
In 2024, by 35%.
In 2025, by 35%, approximately twice as much.

Don't focus solely on the big drops, as you could mislead yourself and others.

 

[bubilas]

I think I've seen some information and a chart like this before

And analytics say that every major Bitcoin cycle so far has ended with a deep structural reset in the bear market. The price decline from peak to trough has been more than 70%. And that this isn't an anomaly, but a normal historical norm. And that it's quite logical that following this "standard" scenario, based on the recent high of $126,000, we should expect a Bitcoin price of around $37,000.

And everything is laid out beautifully, but there are nuances.  
Here's what they write:

Looking back:

In 2015, the peak was around 95%.

In 2019, it reached approximately 83%.

In March 2020, there was a sharp jump to approximately 70%.

In 2022, the peak indicator approached 85%.

The flaw in this analysis is that they only focus on the big peaks, ignoring corrections like the 30-40% that were recently discussed in the optimism thread. And they're visible in the chart above. Look at the green zones, for example, until 2022. Of course, they're not as dire as the red ones, but you can't ignore them.

[tbct_mt2]

It usually goes down 80% or so, not 60%, I do not know where you got the 60% from but it's clear even on that chart that it's nearly 80% drop most of the time, maybe a bit more or a bit less but around those levels. The reality is that if we drop 80$ that would mean 25k give or take, because 20% of 125k is 25k and that is the bottom we will fall to.

Of course this could be different for now, because we have banks and investment companies like blackrock who are holding a lot and may not be selling as much as retail so there are more holders so maybe it will be a bit higher. I think it will be neither 50k nor 25k, it will be somewhere around the middle, like 30 or 35 thousand dollars. That would make sense on the long run.

You can see that the trend of Bitcoin correction percents from ATHs is down and the correction percents have changed to become smaller and smaller cycle by cycle. That's reason of choosing 60% correction for this market cycle and this bear market but you definitely can use any higher percents if you want like 65%, 70%, 75% or 80%.

Let's say with different correction percents, you will calculate different bottom price targets and again, don't try to find exactly bottom price as you can not do it, I can not do it too. We only can try to estimate the bottom price range of this bear market and start our DCA around that price area. Waiting for any absolute bear market price is non sense and it's impossible too.

[snowpega]

In 2026, it is Epstein. Out of the box it was. By the way, is it really Epstein because people are saying it is him, but I think that's just the dumbest reason the community, whales, or market makers have found to spread fud and dump the market.

Those who beleive it are the dumbest. The bear market is a heaven for buyers, everything is cheap but we are talking about bitcoin and it is really cheap. People have forgotten the time so quickly when it was trading above $100k and all of them were so bullish and optimist that, bitcoin will hit $150k to $250k. Now where has all that optimism gone.

Just like you said, here we go again.

No doubt you are right, the connection of Epstein with stoshi nakamato and bitcoin developers spread out FUD in the market, and people started to think that Epstein had some kind of strong relation with its developers, and some were saying that Epstein himself was stoshi nakamato. And no doubt considering such kind of person stoshi nakamato is the dumbest thing near me. Becasue i was reading a mail in which Epstein was advising people not to invest in Bitcoin. So, here one question may also arise in your mind, why would any developer himself or creator will recomend any thing not to adopt? where he himself spent a good time developing and offering to the world for the good.

No doubt for a moment this FUD damaged the market sentiments, but gradually people started to realise that it was just a play and those who lose thier position got manipulated by big hands, as no doubt at this time, where the bitcoin market is currently trading, is a golden opportunity for holders to buy more. That FUD helped somehow big hands to get success in this game, so that they can also buy at this dip. What do you think?

[Shishir99]

Well, I knew this was happening. But you should not just criticize one side. You should also criticize people who have been saying that Bitcoin will reach 200K by the next 90 days, etc, etc. These are unreal things. I understand that everything is possible in the crypto world. However, these FUDs actually affect the market significantly. Today, there are people who are spreading FUD, saying Bitcoin is dead. However, the opposite has happened during the bull run as well. I did not expect the crypto market to go this low without having a real alt season. This time, it is really different. We didn't saw a alt season.

[dezoel]

I think 30k is a good base to have. I mean even if it ever does go down under that, it would be quick and very tiny drop, I think mostly it will stay above 30k.

So if we put a huge buy order at 30k, or even like 32-33 so that it's more guaranteed, I think we can leave and not even look at the market these days. I know it is not an easy task and I know most people miss this, but the reality is that we are dealing with a profitable future if we do this, and we just need patience to be able to wait that much.

[BlackHatCoiner]

But in 2022, there was another 80% drop, but that was the last powerful correction in, so to speak, modern history.

History repeats itself. If bitcoin reaches $40k, it'll have declined by 70% from ATH, which is very close to the 2014, 2018 and 2022 bear markets. I may as well be bullish with -70% as the worst case scenario. It might as well go to 30k-ish.

I think 30k is a good base to have. I mean even if it ever does go down under that, it would be quick and very tiny drop, I think mostly it will stay above 30k.

I think that if it goes below $30k, and stays there for a long time, then it starts losing its value proposition. Bitcoin did not rise by the same percentage in 2025 as it did in 2017 or 2021, so if the decline is worse than both these years, I'd be skeptical about its value proposition in being a store-of-value asset.

[hostm]

Seemed pretty clear once Saylor started offering preferred shares with massive dividends that he was creating a death spiral that would force MSTR to have to liquidate their Bitcoin down the road. Now we wait for the liquidation and hope that large companies decide it is safe to begin stacking BTC once Saylor’s death spiral creation has been defused.

The question is who is behind Saylor. The dividends may come from selling bitcoin for 120 k and buying back the dip. The hidden whales always do that. Sell on top and buy the dip. And the dividents may be the trigger for the next bitcoin bull run. I hold very little bitcoin now but also want to buy the dip what I did in March of 2023 and also in March of 2020

[fikrett]

I think 30k is a good base to have. I mean even if it ever does go down under that, it would be quick and very tiny drop, I think mostly it will stay above 30k.

So if we put a huge buy order at 30k, or even like 32-33 so that it's more guaranteed, I think we can leave and not even look at the market these days. I know it is not an easy task and I know most people miss this, but the reality is that we are dealing with a profitable future if we do this, and we just need patience to be able to wait that much.

we just should do it with the funds we won't be hoping to only see and have in the green zone.. if we manage this properly - no worries can break a true hodler.

[Youngrebel]

Here we go again.

Same vibes. Same no coiner tweets. Same doom thumbnails with red arrows screaming "BITCOIN IS DEAD (FOR REAL THIS TIME)".

Every cycle the same way:

In 2014, it was Mt. Gox and the end of magic internet money.

In 2018, it was ICOs and the realization that whitepapers don't print cash.

In 2022, it was leverage stacked on leverage and paper billionaires.

Now we're in the fourth episode.

People always say "this time is different."

Spoiler alert: these are the same people who can't hold for more than 4 years.

Time is never different. Only the people panicking are.

If you're here long enough, you stop asking "why is this happening?" and you start asking "who's still here when it happens?"

The bear market is not a punishment.

It's the tuition fee.

See you at $40k.

Indeed the times are thesame and only the person panicking are . Time after time we've seen and experienced these fluctuations season after season. 
And there's this good feeling that comes with it because after much fear and uncertainties that comes with these fluctuations,  people panicking having regrets here and there. At the end the feelings is different.  Infact for me when ever there's a drop in price of bitcoin you should be happy because there's a bigger joy of new levels of a bullish season to be unleashed.

[Byebyebtc]

Even if I have not witnessed it before, as long as you have studied about Bitcoin you should be able to understand and expect movements like this.
I can boldly say that investors who withdraw their money after a brief pull back are traders and they are primarily after money, they care less about the growth of the coin. They just want their benefit and I classify them as selfish investors.