According to this expert, the bottom is in

[Catenaccio]

[1] Glassnode and other on-chain data providers have mentioned often, that there was an unusual selling activity of early adopters and big whales during 2024 and 2025. See for example this article, showing that whale selling in 2025 was record. The analyst even was predicting the crash in 2026 correctly

Glassnode is a very insightful on-chain analyst but in my opinion, we even don't need Glassnode Insight's reports or their on-chain charts to guess that there will be a bear market and many crashes in 2026. If we believe in Bitcoin history, market cycles and past patterns as well as don't believe in "this time Bitcoin will move differently" or "there will be a super cycle this time", we would have more comfortably prepared our investment strategy for 2026 and 2027 years.

If history of this market repeats and works well this time, two years 2026 and 2027 would be bearish years.
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/yearly-candlestick-chart

[Pablo-wood]

The shortest bear market? hehe this might be one of those rat hole analysis that keeps people stuck to dipper dips until they get frustrated and sell mostly when the money was meant for something else. One has to be on the safe side when dealing with long term assets that has high volatility. I will avoid the noise, keep it simple and just accumulate not minding if this is going to be the shortest bear market or not. It is always better to be safe than sorry. If it turns sour no one is coming for your rescue so keeping its simple and consistent saves both stress and emotional dramas.

[Fiatless]

The shortest bear market? hehe this might be one of those rat hole analysis that keeps people stuck to dipper dips until they get frustrated and sell mostly when the money was meant for something else. One has to be on the safe side when dealing with long term assets that has high volatility. I will avoid the noise, keep it simple and just accumulate not minding if this is going to be the shortest bear market or not. It is always better to be safe than sorry. If it turns sour no one is coming for your rescue so keeping its simple and consistent saves both stress and emotional dramas.

I don't think the worst is over, as claimed by these analysts. Everyone is free to make their prediction, which could be wrong or right. I don't believe that Bitcoin has reached the bottom, more declines are eminent considering that there are still global political and economic tensions. Traders should approach the market with caution because anything can happen. I would advice short team traders to invest only small amounts. 

[Callido]

I don't think the worst is over, as claimed by these analysts. Everyone is free to make their prediction, which could be wrong or right. I don't believe that Bitcoin has reached the bottom, more declines are eminent considering that there are still global political and economic tensions. Traders should approach the market with caution because anything can happen. I would advice short team traders to invest only small amounts. 

Everyone has something to say concerning the market, the analyst had something to say, so do you and I.

My own prediction says we've not touched the bottom, so far it's not looking like it.

Bitcoin still has a long time to reach whatever price or fall to any extent, the bottom is still fresh from what we experienced at $60K.

[d5000]

The shortest bear market?

There were actually several short bear markets, some even shorter than the current one (if the bottom was already in):

- 2011: June to November (5 months) - loss: ~93% from previous high ($32 to $2)
- 2013: April to June (2 months) - loss: ~80% from previous high ($260 to $50)
- June 2019 to March 2020: (9 months) - loss: ~71% from previous high ($14000 to $4000)
- May 2021 to July/August 2021 (2 months): - loss: ~50% from previous high ($60000 to $30000)
- to compare: October 2025 to February 2026 (4 months): - loss: ~52% from previous high ($126000 to $60000)

The May 2021 bear market is actually perhaps the most "fitting". At least, there are several bearish movements which would not be that different from the current one. Of course, if you're a believer in the 4 year cycles, they were at different moments, and thus some would call them "not real bear markets". But as most have lead to 70% and more losses, I would definitely call them that way

There's another "expert" who thinks the bottom is in or close: Michael Robinson. The interesting thing is that he is a "cyclist", i.e. he believes the halvings do trigger the price movements, but he believes this time at most in March/April the bottom will be in. I don't fully understand his "oscillator" model though.

[bbc.reporter]

News update.

There are more news articles mentioning that the bottom is in. I am shaking my head on myself because this is also my speculation, however, the contrarian in me is telling my own mind that they are very much mistaken on this.



The largest realized loss in bitcoin history occurred during last week’s market downturn, shattering previous records as the asset plummeted from $70,000 to $60,000 on Feb. 5.

According to Glassnode, the Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss reached $3.2 billion. This metric exclusively tracks the USD value of moved coins sold below their acquisition price while filtering out internal transfers between the same entity.

This massive capitulation surpassed even the darkest days of 2022, eclipsing the $2.7 billion loss recorded during the collapse.

According to data platform Checkonchain, "Last week's bitcoin sell-off meets the criteria of a textbook capitulation event. It occurred rapidly, on heavy volume, and crystallised losses from the lowest-conviction holders."

With daily net losses exceeding $1.5 billion, the scale of this sell-off represents the most significant absolute USD loss ever crystallized in the network's history. This points to more signs of a bear market bottom.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/12/last-week-s-rout-delivered-bitcoin-s-biggest-realized-loss-ever-bottoming-signals-grow

[Bitcoin_people]

The shortest bear market? hehe this might be one of those rat hole analysis that keeps people stuck to dipper dips until they get frustrated and sell mostly when the money was meant for something else. One has to be on the safe side when dealing with long term assets that has high volatility. I will avoid the noise, keep it simple and just accumulate not minding if this is going to be the shortest bear market or not. It is always better to be safe than sorry. If it turns sour no one is coming for your rescue so keeping its simple and consistent saves both stress and emotional dramas.

As I see it, given the current market conditions and the way it has been going down, it is not a small bear at all, it is a big one. We have seen the market come down from a very high to about $60k, which is a huge drop, but it is a disappointment. When the market goes down, it is definitely a disappointment for everyone, that is why we should not make any short-term plans but rather make long-term plans. When we buy Bitcoin and make a long-term plan, it will definitely be good for us and we will not have to worry. During times of market volatility, many people get depressed when they see the market fall, but those who make long-term plans will definitely not be so disappointed.

[JeffBrad12]

I also want these experts to be true but logically speaking, just because the price recovered to $70k does not necessarily mean the bear market is ending. There is something called dead cat bounce and short squeeze where the price momentarily going up high enough to liquid people and get back up again.
Every support specifically strong support where there is a big supply zone, have potential for a big dead cat bounce or a bull trap.

From my understanding of being in the market for quite sometime, market rarely make a sudden change in trend. It needs sometime before the bear are running out of shorts and market regaining strenght on the demand zone.

[Curious T]

I read somewhere else that the worst part of it is over, but the correction will take months, and I agree with that. Even if the "price falling" part is over, it will take time for Bitcoin to recover.
Bitcoin has been between a certain price for days now. I believe it will start recovering soon, but it will be at a very slow pace. It will go up as quickly as it went down.

Well, this should be an opportunity for those who also wait for the price to dip before they buy. it may not dipper than this, so they better make use of the opportunity now.

[aoluain]

Ah its very easy to comment on what is happening in the market currently but there is no
way of knowing whats going to happen next week or next month.

I dont necessarily need the market to rise because I'm not selling anytime soon but I will
be buying soon, a market drop just might coincide with that and I wont be  complaining!

I have a friend who tracks the market and he is estimating a bottom ~ $53k but I dont know
how he bases this on, its all above my head.

[irhact]

If this expert is correct, this might become the shortest bear market of bitcoin and we can be certain it will also be certain that this will be also a short bear market for the whole cryptospace?

Does everyone reckon that he is correct? I would certainly want him to be correct hehehehe, however, is he correct?

A lot of the so-called expert will begin to bring their different predictions but let us not be deceived because these have happened so many times. With my many years of experience in the market I have seen different so called expert comfortable predictions that they all got wrong The beer market is just starting let us not be deceived that the beer market is about to end Bitcoin has not bottomed yet we will still go down People are still going to panic and sell their Bitcoin, many individuals are still going to get into the market and realise that they have lost so much and the next thing they will think is the best thing to do is to save the remaining bitcoins that they have but then doing that they'll be making the wrong mistake because the best decision to take is always to keep on holding Bitcoin instead of selling. Let us not believe any expert they don't have any experience more than us, looking at the market and looking through the history from the chat you can see that Bitcoin rises and falls therefore whenever Bitcoin is falling we should not give up hope but continue to accumulate Bitcoin as many as possible.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Does everyone reckon that he is correct? I would certainly want him to be correct hehehehe, however, is he correct?

I feel the same way. Rather than thinking objectively about whether he is right, what I want is for him to be right. The price has rebounded from $60K, and after breaking through $70K, it seems to be heading higher. The downside is that we never know if it will be a dead cat bounce or if it will actually continue to rise.

If it drops again, we shouldn't be surprised, but I wish the opposite happens.

[LogitechMouse]

If this expert is correct, this might become the shortest bear market of bitcoin and we can be certain it will also be certain that this will be also a short bear market for the whole cryptospace?

Does everyone reckon that he is correct? I would certainly want him to be correct hehehehe, however, is he correct?
---

The fact that it has said there that "this might be the shortest bear market of Bitcoin and the whole crypto market" makes me think twice of my decisions because on average, bear markets usually lasts around 9-12 months. Well, this might be true, and this might happen especially in a market like the crypto market.

Also, let's not forget the fact that institutions might play a big role in this one because as retail investors are continuing to sell their holdings, these companies are constantly buying because they know that in the long run, it will go up in value. There's no such thing as "certainty" when it comes to the crypto market and anything could happen. Is he correct? Of course, we don't know, but if this will really be the shortest bear market that we've ever seen, I will be happy because I will again see something that hasn't happened in the whole crypto space after... a bear market that lasted way shorter than the average time.

[MusaPk]

Everyone has something to say concerning the market, the analyst had something to say, so do you and I.

My own prediction says we've not touched the bottom, so far it's not looking like it.

Bitcoin still has a long time to reach whatever price or fall to any extent, the bottom is still fresh from what we experienced at $60K.

There are lot of predictions about price of Bitcoin in the market right now. Whenever price goes down, we have predictions that price is going to new low. While in case price goes up, we have predictions that we will see new highs in coming days. Since everyone is free to make a prediction, my feeling is also same that price won't go below $60,000 and we will see an upward trend in coming days. In case price further goes down below $60,000 then it will give us a golden opportunity to buy more Bitcoins and only wise people will take advantage of that.

[ancafe]

There are lot of predictions about price of Bitcoin in the market right now. Whenever price goes down, we have predictions that price is going to new low. While in case price goes up, we have predictions that we will see new highs in coming days. Since everyone is free to make a prediction, my feeling is also same that price won't go below $60,000 and we will see an upward trend in coming days. In case price further goes down below $60,000 then it will give us a golden opportunity to buy more Bitcoins and only wise people will take advantage of that.

Sometimes it can be quite confusing to see some predictions made and even when examined with some analysis, they don't make sense. Essentially, everyone is free to make predictions because there are no consequences, but for those with class, a slightly accurate prediction will gain more credibility among their followers while conversely, if the prediction is frequently wrong, public trust will be lost. Currently, Bitcoin is struggling to break through $85,000, but lacks strong support, so it is hovering around $70,000/$60.000 down and seems a little more difficult to reach its high this month.

Every decline presents a prime opportunity for accumulation, as these conditions are rare. Those who capitalize on the potential can achieve significantly greater investment returns. Rather than relying solely on predictions, it's far better to capitalize on existing opportunities, as these are rare and offer far greater opportunities for the growth of the investments we undertake.

[bitgolden]

When bitcoin has finally broken over 100k, which was not only was a resistance point, but also a psychological limit as well. We have reached a point where bitcoin is easily top 10, and was even top 5 for a moment. That means, waiting was not really making you that much richer unless you do something about it.

I think that was the reason why most of the whales got out, it was not going to benefit them even further, they already sold above 100k. If the current levels are convincing to them to re-enter then I agree that we have bottomed out already. I am just speaking rationally rather than being technical.

[dunfida]

Everyone has something to say concerning the market, the analyst had something to say, so do you and I.

My own prediction says we've not touched the bottom, so far it's not looking like it.

Bitcoin still has a long time to reach whatever price or fall to any extent, the bottom is still fresh from what we experienced at $60K.

There are lot of predictions about price of Bitcoin in the market right now. Whenever price goes down, we have predictions that price is going to new low. While in case price goes up, we have predictions that we will see new highs in coming days. Since everyone is free to make a prediction, my feeling is also same that price won't go below $60,000 and we will see an upward trend in coming days. In case price further goes down below $60,000 then it will give us a golden opportunity to buy more Bitcoins and only wise people will take advantage of that.

Well, this is a speculative market then expect that we do have these kind of approach. Every time the market moves people start drawing their own lines of prediction and it’s normal because Bitcoin has always been driven by speculation and sentiment as much as by technical signals the truth though is that nobody can tell where the actual bottom is, until after it’s already passed many said the same thing at 30k during the last cycle thinking it couldn’t drop more and yet we saw it touch below 20k. Right now the structure still shows weakness we’ve been struggling to hold above key levels and the bounce attempts haven’t formed strong support the market needs to exhaust the panic phase before any solid recovery happens if it does drop below 60k that will shake out the last batch of overleveraged traders and late buyers giving stronger hands a clearer entry for the next leg.

Its important that you do know on what you are dealing with because once you do dive in into this market but doesnt have much idea on what you've been dealing on, then you would be just that easily freak out.