It seems to me that a safety car can equally well improve or worsen a driver's position, and starting from the back rows, even in an ideal case, means minus about a minute. Antonelli is undoubtedly good, but Russell, with such a handicap, is unlikely to lose to him, plus McLaren and Ferrari. I think, given the accidents and other force majeure, Antonelli will finish 5th or 6th.
What do you think of Antonelli's outright win odds of 1.25 this season? It looks solid. Plus you only have to wait a little over 3 months.
That is 25% profitability over your stake which is not a lot considering he will start this race probably in the back of the grid, we also saw that Mercedes heavily suffered with the hard tire so most probably they will go with the soft tire or medium to attack in the beginning stages of the race yet this does not guarantee overtakes will happen really soon. I think if Antonelli had an odd of 1.5 or more which means 50% or more profitability of your stake it would look good. Personally I will fancy Lando Norris to win the Championship by putting little money into him as he should be well over 10 as odds to win the Championship. So about 20 dollars for more than 200 should be a good choice rather than risking 200 for 250 with Antonelli, anyway do not listen to me, not a great winner in bets although in pools I usually end up winning something
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Norris is priced roughly where you want him to be:
Antonelli, Andrea Kimi - 1.28
Norris, Lando - 9.00
Russell, George - 13.00
Hamilton, Lewis - 13.00
Leclerc, Charles - 26.00
It seems to me that 25-30% is a good compensation for a "reliable" outcome, I like this bet because it is not Kimi vs. the Main Competitor, but Kimi vs. randomness. Like, if suddenly they are all equalized, the advantage he already has will be decisive. And it is obvious that the penalty in Italy is already taken into account in these coefficients, if Kimi somehow performs successfully there, his odds will change for the better, and if not, they will remain more or less the same.
