Bitcoin Failed Its Ultimate Test

[Alpen]

Since the early 2000s, the Global Uncertainty Index has been breaking records left and right. Historically, that's always been rocket fuel for gold. But watch what happened when Bitcoin entered the chat.



From 2010 to 2020, BTC straight-up ate gold's lunch. We all got comfortable calling it a safe haven. Then 2025 hit. Cold shower.

Here's what actually happened:

• Gold: An unprecedented rally on the back of Trump's arrival and global chaos. +60% for the year.
• Bitcoin: Despite being the "first crypto president," Trump didn't save BTC from closing the year in the red.

When the uncertainty index went parabolic, capital chose good old-fashioned gold over the "digital" stuff. Looks like BTC failed the "safe haven" test. At least for now. Or am I missing something in this cycle?

[Darker45]

So what if Trump was wrongly called the "first crypto president"? Does that mean he can "save BTC from closing the year in the red"? What makes you think he has that power?

If you come to assess Bitcoin's safe haven label when it's at the bottom, it surely failed. If you do it some other time, it easily passes the test with flying colors. To be fair, perhaps we should take a few steps back and take a look at Bitcoin's overall performance, not just short time frames.

[viljy]

Once upon a time, someone threw in a thesis about a safe haven asset and everyone muttered, "Quiet harbor is a quiet harbor..." That was the plan. We need to listen less to fashion trends and malicious misinformation. Bitcoin is a highly volatile commodity. "Paper gold" is a speculative derivative. Physical gold is a real safe haven asset.

[Jaweria parveen]

So what if Trump was wrongly called the "first crypto president"? Does that mean he can "save BTC from closing the year in the red"? What makes you think he has that power?

If you come to assess Bitcoin's safe haven label when it's at the bottom, it surely failed. If you do it some other time, it easily passes the test with flying colors. To be fair, perhaps we should take a few steps back and take a look at Bitcoin's overall performance, not just short time frames.

While he has not been performing very well in this, which is why we do not consider him to be very good. He promised to make crypto big, but he has not fulfilled it yet, which is why he is not using this power properly, while he is using this power well in his country. Bitcoin has fallen below its price for some time, this does not mean that Bitcoin or its growth has stopped, but it has the potential to rise this year with many big predictions. It is absolutely okay to do so because at this time everyone's eyes are on Bitcoin, if we do not make any changes in Bitcoin for a while, maybe it will seem to go up, so we should not invest in Bitcoin right now, although this time is good, but sometimes profitable investments have to be abandoned.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Regardless of how I try to look at it, attributing the success or failure of bitcoin to the actions of one man no matter who he is right now is really short sighted, how bitcoin closed the year isn't anyone fault or decision, things happen and just because it closed the year in the red doesn't mean it's never going towards the green again, it might be an important time for us seeing as it's the end of the year and all that but if bitcoin was sentient then the end of the year wouldn't really be all that different from any other day, it's all just dates and numbers.

[KiaKia]

Well, its obvious that Bitcoin is not gold, you shouldn't be expecting them to run in the same manner, no wonder some people are expecting more upside from Bitcoin, is gold chart all they have been staring at? Lmao

Bitcoin failed nothing, 4 years cycle is still intact and timing is everything, history isn't always accurate as the same but they have always look similar, it is stupid of anyone to believe that Bitcoin will keep going up because gold is doing something like that.

Following index's and other signals will wreck you, get into bitcoin at the lows and sell when the price is high, just keep repeating this process it has never failed.

[ancafe]

From 2010 to 2020, BTC straight-up ate gold's lunch. We all got comfortable calling it a safe haven. Then 2025 hit. Cold shower.

Here's what actually happened:

• Gold: An unprecedented rally on the back of Trump's arrival and global chaos. +60% for the year.
• Bitcoin: Despite being the "first crypto president," Trump didn't save BTC from closing the year in the red.

Trump couldn't save Bitcoin from the current downturn and do we think he has the capacity to do so? Gold also declined, and some stock markets also experienced similar conditions during Bitcoin's sharp decline. One thing I understand now is that no one can influence Bitcoin or any other asset under certain circumstances. Gold is known as a low-risk and slow-moving asset, but during this period, its rise was quite significant beyond many people's expectations.

This creates a misconception as Mr. Trump is called the Bitcoin president because there is almost nothing he can do in the current situation. If the reason most people are shifting their money to gold after Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, is it ideal now to do so because after gold reached its highest price it also experienced a decline.

[Alone055]

Bitcoin's ultimate test? What are you talking about? Was Bitcoin created to become a safe haven or even an investment asset? Have Satoshi mentioned in the whitepaper that he is creating a great investment asset or a safe haven for us to keep our wealth safe from bad economic periods or high inflation? No, Bitcoin was never meant to do any of that, but since it had a limited supply and people noticed that it is volatile and can increase in value over time, they started taking interest in it, and here we are.

Bitcoin was created only to become a decentralized peer to peer payment method, and it still has that in it only if we use it for that, but most people these days barely care about that since they only see Bitcoin as a way to make money and they buy and hold and don't transact with it. Can you change that perception? No, nobody can change that, the world will always do things the way they want not the way they should be done logically or technically.

[NeuroticFish]

Looks like BTC failed the "safe haven" test. At least for now. Or am I missing something in this cycle?

Your expectations are unrealistic and your comparison is wrong/useless. I will say that it's because you are new/inexperienced.

Bitcoin is different than gold. While gold usually goes up and down slightly, 10%+ variation in bitcoin price is far from unusual.
It's written in a lot of places, in a way or another: given it's high volatility, you have to focus on bitcoin price charts on 4 years, at very least.

On 4+ years you'll see profit. You'll see "safe haven". You'll see "better than gold, stocks and everything else".
On shorter terms you may easily see FOMO and then despair and selling on bottom.

Look at the charts.


I don't tell that you should invest or not, I have no idea what the future holds, I have no crystal globe. But historically, on at least 4-5 years, Bitcoin did wonderful. But one needs patience and the news don't sell patience, since hype and misery gets more attention.

[Findingnemo]

Wait for it, gold, silver and every metal dump after the gold run so bitcoin was the forerunner and every other asset following the same emotions? Would you accept that argument?

If we calculate the 4 year cycle then bitcoin is in the bearish mode that is what probaboly causing the dump not really the uncertaininty among the countries and wars.

[Mhizlove]

So what if Trump was wrongly called the "first crypto president"? Does that mean he can "save BTC from closing the year in the red"? What makes you think he has that power?

If you come to assess Bitcoin's safe haven label when it's at the bottom, it surely failed. If you do it some other time, it easily passes the test with flying colors. To be fair, perhaps we should take a few steps back and take a look at Bitcoin's overall performance, not just short time frames.

Okay first of all bitcoin don't depends on title or controlled by politicians so you saying or they call trump crypto president, that do not mean that one person can control bitcoin, it's all about how demands , supply and also confidence on the way the global market or events goes.

And again this safe heaven label this don't mean that the price of bitcoin won't drop even when it comes to gold the price still fall sometimes, the thing is that even if it drops can the assets recover from it and holds value as the years pass by because instead of you focusing it if bitcoin is on red or green in a year it's just okay to ask because with this alone it has proven that no matter how the market seems it can still survive and in the terms of a long run bitcoin still holds its value or bitcoin is makes sense as an asset and solid reason to stand strong.

[goldkingcoiner]

Bitcoin certainly did not fail any such test.
Perhaps a subjective test but not one that we would all agree on.

Gold was always a safe haven. But that has nothing to do with Bitcoin as a worse safe haven but rather our cultural and historical bias of gold being considered the ultimate safe storage of value. Especially during crisis.

[pooya87]

Gold is rising ONLY because the world is dumping the dollar as reserve currency and is replacing it with gold. So when the central banks of more than half the world with the larges total economies (ie. BRICS for example) are buying gold, its price is bound to shoot up like this.

When gold goes up like this while the world is in a worsening recession, the capital tends to go toward gold and exit bitcoin. That has nothing to do with the pedophile POTUS and his nonsense show put up during the installation campaign.

Although it's disappointing to watch bitcoin perform poorly during this global recession and geopolitical turmoil but bitcoin's test was going from $0.001 to $100,000 in only 17 years. In the next 17 years things will be more or less the same.

[escrow.ms]

It's a shame that people still don't understand bitcoin or how it works.

When a crash happens, people panic and think it's the end, in reality it's the start, it's the start of the great wealth redistribution.

[Abu-Naim]

It's a shame that people still don't understand bitcoin or how it works.

When a crash happens, people panic and think it's the end, in reality it's the start, it's the start of the great wealth redistribution.

Such people are just here for criticism and nothing more that’s why they will just consider a very short term market movement and make judgments on everything which was very wrong.

The overall performance of Bitcoin since it came into existence needs to be taken into consideration when making such comparisons and if the OP should consider going back to analyze the market from 2010 till date, he will change his words by saying that Bitcoin failed the test, but right now, explaining to them can’t solve any problem because they knew the truth but trying their best to take Bitcoin down which we have seen a lot of them in the past and Bitcoin survived.

[hyudien]

You're fixated on a handful of Bitcoin stories and high expectations from politicians, something that shouldn't be a benchmark. You're also fundamentally wrong if you compare gold to Bitcoin. Simply put, their fluctuations are different. A 50% or more drop in Bitcoin price doesn't mean failure or the end of Bitcoin, that normal. You need to look at Bitcoin overall performance to better understand it. Essentially, we're in a bear market that unavoidable. But wait and see. When you realize Bitcoin is rising again, you'll say Bitcoin is a safe haven and the same pattern will continue to repeat itself.

[Adams0001]

Such people are just here for criticism and nothing more that’s why they will just consider a very short term market movement and make judgments on everything which was very wrong.

The overall performance of Bitcoin since it came into existence needs to be taken into consideration when making such comparisons and if the OP should consider going back to analyze the market from 2010 till date, he will change his words by saying that Bitcoin failed the test, but right now, explaining to them can’t solve any problem because they knew the truth but trying their best to take Bitcoin down which we have seen a lot of them in the past and Bitcoin survived.

Many people are just wasting there time on talking negative things about bitcoin and since they are talking nothing have changed in bitcoin many people are still benefiting in bitcoin so people that believe them don't understand how the market moves and they are just wasting there time. So the way Bitcoin is helping people alot and change there life since from 2010 to 2020 if you have been investing in bitcoin you should have be profitable by now, and you will surely believe in bitcoin and is value bur since now that the price is volatile currently others that don't really have knowledge will always think that the are losing everything in there investment or other that are interesting to invest won't d,  because they will believe that the price will continue dropping down.

[coin-investor]

When the uncertainty index went parabolic, capital chose good old-fashioned gold over the "digital" stuff. Looks like BTC failed the "safe haven" test. At least for now. Or am I missing something in this cycle?

For now, yes, but not for long. Bitcoin will rally as it has for the last 15 years. There are both positive and negative aspects to comparing things. I prefer Bitcoin for its profitability since its creation, but its volatility makes it hard to become a safe haven.
With the technology and usage it's bringing to this generation and future generations, it's still an asset worth having in your portfolio; you just have to be comfortable with it.

[Joy- maker]

as far as I am concern  Bitcoin didn't fail it ultimate test. And If we are talking about long term survival as a decentralized,  secure and trusted monetary network,  Bitcoin has not even reach that final stage yet. So OP, this ultimate test you are talking about will come in a distant future,  when block rewards disappear and miners rely only on transaction fees,  And this will take over a century before it happen.

Bitcoin has already survived some serious tests,  e.g government ban and others. And despite all the things Bitcoin passed through years back, the network has been running without interruption,  Blocks keep being produced, the total market Cap of Bitcoin (21 million) hasn't changed,  and no central authority has taken over Bitcoin till date.

So Imo,  I think the debate should be,  what will be the fate of Bitcoin when it reaches it final stage? But for now Bitcoin hasn't failed it ultimate test,  it being tested, and so far Bitcoin has passed every major challenge.

[Alpen]

So what if Trump was wrongly called the "first crypto president"? Does that mean he can "save BTC from closing the year in the red"? What makes you think he has that power?

If you come to assess Bitcoin's safe haven label when it's at the bottom, it surely failed. If you do it some other time, it easily passes the test with flying colors. To be fair, perhaps we should take a few steps back and take a look at Bitcoin's overall performance, not just short time frames.

The mistake wasn’t calling Trump the "crypto president"—the real mistake was the crypto industry backing him in the election. He used crypto for personal enrichment, and now the Democrats are gearing up for investigations. We’re likely to see a wave of anti-crypto legislation framed as a crackdown on "political bribery." None of this is going to end well for the market.