Bitcoin Failed Its Ultimate Test

[Agbamoni]

Bitcoin was not made to be needed by banksters or institutional investors. It also didn't go up just because the pedophile POTUS said some nonsense about it during his campaign. It has been going up for over a decade without needing perverts advertising it and it has been crashing after each major rise without needing perverts cashing out.

The pattern we are seeing in the past couple of years is also becoming repetitive: 2019, 2022, 2026:
- COVID pandemic crisis leading to recession ($14k crashed to $3.8k)
- NATO-Russian war (food and energy) crisis leading to recession ($69k crashed to $15k)
- Pedophile POTUS economic war and other armed conflict he started that caused crisis and more recession ($120k crashed to )

I understand the pain and anger from the way you speak. Unfortunately, we cannot control who makes a statement regarding Bitcoin, who uses it to run a campaign, or big institutions from showing their interest in it. At least one thing we can enjoy from all of this is that Bitcoin moves in its own direction, whether a statement is made or not, the effect is only for a short while.

I remember what happened in 2022 vividly. A lot played a role in the 2022 crash. SBF dumping all deposits, thinking it was in their FTX wallet, Luna scam, and Celsius happened to scam people in that same 2022, China banned Bitcoin over again, Bitcoin critics and propaganda. For real, a lot happened, and then, which we can barely compare to what is happening in 2026.

[DrBeer]

Since the early 2000s, the Global Uncertainty Index has been breaking records left and right. Historically, that's always been rocket fuel for gold. But watch what happened when Bitcoin entered the chat.



From 2010 to 2020, BTC straight-up ate gold's lunch. We all got comfortable calling it a safe haven. Then 2025 hit. Cold shower.

Here's what actually happened:

• Gold: An unprecedented rally on the back of Trump's arrival and global chaos. +60% for the year.
• Bitcoin: Despite being the "first crypto president," Trump didn't save BTC from closing the year in the red.

When the uncertainty index went parabolic, capital chose good old-fashioned gold over the "digital" stuff. Looks like BTC failed the "safe haven" test. At least for now. Or am I missing something in this cycle?

Let me start with the end of the sentence. Trump is not the savior of the crypto world; he is just an ordinary speculator who happened to come to power. More precisely, crypto activists turned out to be a significant force that voted for Trump, falling for his promises.
 Then Trump, in his usual manner, “used” them, used cryptocurrency, EARNED votes and huge amounts of money from it, and then “threw them aside” because neither the former nor the latter are of any interest to him anymore. It's all very simple. At the same time, I do not rule out that his actions have led to a huge loss of confidence in Bitcoin among investors and the world at large. It is possible to raise the price, but confidence is VERY DIFFICULT to restore!

[barbara44]

Comparing gold and bitcoin at this moment when bitcoin is in the bear market and gold has done the biggest leap in decades, is unfair comparison. If we were to compare it for the past 5 years, past 10 years, past 15 years all of them bitcoin wins, only in the past year bitcoin loses because it has gone down.

If you want to make it fair, and not look back, I suggest buy X amount of gold and bitcoin today and look at the future, I guarantee you that bitcoin will do better on the long term. Crypto in general isn't the same, there are many shitcoins in there, but bitcoin is the best asset you can use for a long term investment, it is the best store of value we have in our existence at the moment, far greater than gold.

[STT]

I dont see price is the test, usage is the test and price is merely the secondary result as a consequence of usage.   Its happened before where speculation is too great, usage should be the vanguard not hopes and dreams of higher BTC price.
   If BTC stayed flat 50k forever it would be just fine, so long as its actually being used by people, the idea of the asset price being a gain or even the whole prize is probably the incorrect part that has faltered.

[virasog]

Comparing gold and bitcoin at this moment when bitcoin is in the bear market and gold has done the biggest leap in decades, is unfair comparison. If we were to compare it for the past 5 years, past 10 years, past 15 years all of them bitcoin wins, only in the past year bitcoin loses because it has gone down.

If you want to make it fair, and not look back, I suggest buy X amount of gold and bitcoin today and look at the future, I guarantee you that bitcoin will do better on the long term. Crypto in general isn't the same, there are many shitcoins in there, but bitcoin is the best asset you can use for a long term investment, it is the best store of value we have in our existence at the moment, far greater than gold.

Buying bitcoin in all those years from 2016/17 to 2021 gives more returns as compared to Gold. It is only in 2025 where the bitcoin could give many x returns (if you have bought bitcoin in that year) and metals specially gold and Silver has given extreme returns. But all this doesn't mean that Bitcoin era has ended.

Even if you bought bitcoin now at below 70k, it still has a change to give you minimum 3x return till next bull market and I am not sure if gold can do a 3x from here.

[UmerIdrees]

I dont see price is the test, usage is the test and price is merely the secondary result as a consequence of usage.   Its happened before where speculation is too great, usage should be the vanguard not hopes and dreams of higher BTC price.
   If BTC stayed flat 50k forever it would be just fine, so long as its actually being used by people, the idea of the asset price being a gain or even the whole prize is probably the incorrect part that has faltered.

I don't know why people think that high Bitcoin prices mean more adaptation for Bitcoin and low Bitcoin price would mean that less people are using it. This is not the case actually and if you follow the Bitcoin four years cycle, you will get more convinced that price of Bitcoin should not matter. 1 Bitcoin is equal to 1 Bitcoin, no matter what is the price of btc.

Think for a moment, in October last year, Bitcoin price was over 120,000$ and two weeks before the Bitcoin was almost half the price at 60k. Does it mean that 50% of the Bitcoin users have left ? For sure, the  Bitcoin users are getting increase everyday. The prices are usually controlled by whales and exchanges and they manipulate to make money out of retail emotion, fear and fomo.

[shinratensei_]

When the uncertainty index went parabolic, capital chose good old-fashioned gold over the "digital" stuff. Looks like BTC failed the "safe haven" test. At least for now. Or am I missing something in this cycle?

The capital who choose the good old-fashioned gold over digital stuff is the capital that comes from the people who aren't well versed about the ins and outs of bitcoin or any digital asset.
I doubt 50% of that capital that went into gold coming from a person who even invest in stock. It's highly plausible that they are coming from people who only know gold as an investment, therefore the assumption that those capital choose gold over digital gold is not a fact.

On the other hand, bitcoin is still safe haven because the value grow overtime. Being safe haven doesn't necessarily means it needs to surpass gold. It just need to grow overtime against fiat.
Just very ingenuine to say bitcoin is not safe haven anymore just because it doesn't perform better than gold, even though it's still deflationary.

[dezoel]

The capital who choose the good old-fashioned gold over digital stuff is the capital that comes from the people who aren't well versed about the ins and outs of bitcoin or any digital asset.
I doubt 50% of that capital that went into gold coming from a person who even invest in stock. It's highly plausible that they are coming from people who only know gold as an investment, therefore the assumption that those capital choose gold over digital gold is not a fact.

On the other hand, bitcoin is still safe haven because the value grow overtime. Being safe haven doesn't necessarily means it needs to surpass gold. It just need to grow overtime against fiat.
Just very ingenuine to say bitcoin is not safe haven anymore just because it doesn't perform better than gold, even though it's still deflationary.

Plus, old people. Old people do not understand from crypto and do not care because they are already old so they do not need to learn it, so they go with gold because it's safe and secure and do not require them to learn anything new. Whereas if you are not that old, like under sixty years old and still prefer gold over bitcoin then in most cases you are either fearing (which you do to have to) or you just come from money and do not need this at all and gold would be enough for you.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I dont see price is the test, usage is the test and price is merely the secondary result as a consequence of usage.   Its happened before where speculation is too great, usage should be the vanguard not hopes and dreams of higher BTC price.
   If BTC stayed flat 50k forever it would be just fine, so long as its actually being used by people, the idea of the asset price being a gain or even the whole prize is probably the incorrect part that has faltered.

Bitcoin would become more valuable than gold when adoption in both spot ETF and personal small business use it as a currency as a store of value and trade more with it due to its unique capabilities.
BTC would definitely hit an ATH irrespective of Donald Trump's actions or sudden forced policies that intend to make it stumble. They all have tenures and Bitcoin doesn't, so it would patiently take over and be digital gold as it is said originally because the old investors in gold would see it as a currency of value of these times and advice the young to invest in it as they did gold.

[DiMarxist]

Snip

The mistake wasn’t calling Trump the "crypto president"—the real mistake was the crypto industry backing him in the election. He used crypto for personal enrichment, and now the Democrats are gearing up for investigations. We’re likely to see a wave of anti-crypto legislation framed as a crackdown on "political bribery." None of this is going to end well for the market.

Donald trump is a politician and I think that, Trump saw an opportunity in crypto and he utilize it to his advantage. Knowing that there were a lot of pro crypto voters before the election so as a good strategist and planner trump used this to his advantage. Because after the election I did not see much change or reform that trump brought to the crypto community I feel too that trump only used the head of the American voters.

[SUPERSAIAN]

Well, its obvious that Bitcoin is not gold, you shouldn't be expecting them to run in the same manner, no wonder some people are expecting more upside from Bitcoin, is gold chart all they have been staring at? Lmao

Bitcoin failed nothing, 4 years cycle is still intact and timing is everything, history isn't always accurate as the same but they have always look similar, it is stupid of anyone to believe that Bitcoin will keep going up because gold is doing something like that.

Following index's and other signals will wreck you, get into bitcoin at the lows and sell when the price is high, just keep repeating this process it has never failed.

Why would Bitcoin fail? It's currently in a downtrend, but I believe it will rise when the time comes. Then the narratives will change. While it's down, everyone can say it's a failure, but that's what narrow-minded people say you don't need to take it too seriously. If you believe Bitcoin's price is low, buy, accumulate, and sell in the next cycle. It's that simple. You just need a plan to do it.