If War Comes Tomorrow: How Will Bitcoin React?

[Davidvictorson]

Crypto might be sheltered a bit from that war and I can imagine the S&P climbing as a result of it (aircraft part sales, missile sales, proofs of concepts etc).

Yeah, I agree with you. From an institutional standpoint, bitcoin would not be allowed to tank because it would spell doom for those corporations with large holdings and therefore what the management would try to do, is to see that they BitcoinETFs are promoted more so that it would not tank. This is what I just expect would happen.

[Berry2d]

Just as war touches all sphere of any economy so it touches Bitcoin, but it's touching always seem more temporary compared to how war affect other aspects of any economy, flash back on the war between Ukraine and Russia, isreal, hamas and Iran all these are war and need that would have bring Bitcoin down but never have serious impact, their effect was more temporary as less expected. War affect anything not just Bitcoin but all aspects of economy but regards to Bitcoin the effects is lesser.

Ideally if war comes its effect on bitcoin is not supposed to be temporary assuming bitcoin follows its original driving force which constant buying and selling, but now political interference stands as a key tool to the increases and fall of its price therefore its effect will turn to be significant.  War is one thing we should not pray for to come as its effect on lives and properties are noticeable based on how dangerous it is when it comes so to avoid had i know the best is to prevent it. There is nothing capability of resisting the effect of war when to comes including economy, if war can be so dangerous to every sector therefore even Bitcoin is not save

[DrBeer]

You're correct because in short-term situations, we've seen the impact on Bitcoin, such as during the Ukraine-Russia war, although it didn't last long for Bitcoin, as it rebounded in a relatively short time. If a war between the US and Iran were to break out, it would have a significant impact on the global economy and could cause problems for global oil prices, so we hope it never happens.

What differentiates a Russia-Ukraine war from an Iran-US war is that an Iran-US war would be on a different scale because Iran is suspected of possessing nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Iran has a stronger military base than Ukraine. Iran can produce its own missiles and also has fighter jet technology. Although still below the United States, Iran could escalate the war to a more devastating scale. The Strait of Hormuz is also a vital global trade route and a crucial route for global oil distribution. If a war breaks out, the global energy supply chain would be disrupted, creating a domino effect across various countries and potentially throwing the world into severe economic chaos. In that situation, I think people would prefer gold as a hedge rather than Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin's value would bottom out because people and institutions would withdraw their money from the market and move it to assets like gold and silver. -CMIIW

If we project Russia's war against Ukraine onto possible US military action against Iran, the picture will be slightly different:
Russia, considered the second strongest army in the world, possessing nuclear weapons, the largest army, and “unparalleled weapons,” attacked Ukraine, which in 2014 (the date of the start of the terrorist attack on Ukraine), had no more than a few tens of thousands of combat-ready soldiers and a destroyed supply system, did not achieve significant success. Continuing its terrorist war against Ukraine in 2022 by launching a full-scale invasion, using all types of weapons and the largest group of troops, it has now lost most of the territories it captured in 2022. The Russian army has deteriorated, as has the country's economy. Not a single objective (which changed constantly in an attempt to save face) has been achieved, and the losses of the occupying army are growing every day. This is despite the fact that the Russian occupation army is several orders of magnitude superior to the Ukrainian armed forces. One of the reasons for Russia's fiasco is its inflated self-esteem and attribution of fantastic advantages to itself. After Israel's strike last year, Iran effectively lost its air defense, which is one of the key echelons of defense against aviation and missile weapons. The US will not conduct a ground operation, as it is not in its interest to do so. And theoretical possession of nuclear weapons does not give any advantage in the event of a massive air/missile strike on military infrastructure and defense industry facilities. So the comparison is not very accurate.

[AYOBA]

Well on my own side of the matter I don’t see such happening, well the thing is that I don’t even no but I feel bitcoin reactions i think it might likely hit the the volatile, but the truth of the matter is that is will be very hard to predict what might happen when it happens eventually, on a long bitcoin has really shown so many resilience i think doing some global conflict, on a second thought I think most investors might want to panic sell I think that could only be what should happen higher.

Honestly the way Bitcoin price be crashing this days it will be very hard for a person to predict what might happen in future markets, the best thing is for we to continue buy like now that Bitcoin is down this is the right time be serious on buying Bitcoin. So that we can achieve huge amounts of profits in future, but my problem with some investors is that they don’t have patience once they see that bitcoin is going down after they have buying some will be panic to sell it back instead of them to be patience and continue hold it till the market recover from the crash.

[pooya87]

It would be too complicated to predict. There is a lot of things that can happen during different phases. If the US regime starts a war with Iran then Iran will start retaliating hard...

We’ve already seen Iran’s "harsh response" during the conflict with Israel—it wasn't much. This regime is only tough when it comes to cracking down on its own people. If the people get their hands on weapons in the chaos of war, it won't be a war against the US or Israel; it will be a full-scale civil war.

The US sponsored terrorists such as al-Qaeda and Komoleh are not "Iranian people", these are categorized as US regime's army since they receive funding and training from US military and under supervision of the US army.

The devastation in Israel and the losses US regime sustained are clear and the satellite imagery that are slowly coming out despite the heavy censorship is proving how Iran easily crushed the US regime and its terrorist groups like Israel back in June which we already knew considering how they started the war and then they begged for ceasefire.

And that was not a full-scale war, it is categorized as fire exchange. In case of full scale war, Iran will show these regimes no mercy and for example not a single US naval unit would remain afloat or operational.

Recently the US regime's highest military official which is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff confessed to this proving once again how fragile and weak the US military is in case of a face off with Iran.
Knowing this, is the exact reason why the US regime has been using its terrorist proxies against Iranian people and then refers to them in its propaganda mouthpieces as "the Iranian people" and whenever the actual Iranians people crush the US Army (takfiri terrorists) they refer to it as "crackdown on people" which won't change anything. These are US sponsored terrorists and US military will be crushed if they attack Iran

Over the past couple of years we have also seen how pathetically weak the US military is too. For example in their Navy we are seeing how the suicide rates is on the rise again and the losses are amassing in their face offs with smaller and much weaker countries such as Yemen where the US military lost dozens of military aircrafts including 3 F-18 superhornets and multiple warships were severely hit that they are still going through repairs and may never become operational again.

[Alpen]

If war became tomorrow bitcoin it's the wonderwall.

Do you want go in the battlefield? I think no, obiuvsly. Ok, at this point the government freeze you bank account and your money and the money of your family and familiar to force you to arruolate. In same case you will also have a seizure of your property, gold and money because it needs for the war effort.

If you have bitcoin, you can escape in another country e you can live with your money not like a refugee but like a person. And tell your governor to send his son to war.

I’ve actually lived through everything you just described—twice. The first time, nobody had even heard of Bitcoin. The second time, crypto existed, but I still had to rely on cold, hard cash (USD) to survive and move. Do you have any other arguments for me?

[Alpen]

Just as war touches all sphere of any economy so it touches Bitcoin, but it's touching always seem more temporary compared to how war affect other aspects of any economy, flash back on the war between Ukraine and Russia, isreal, hamas and Iran all these are war and need that would have bring Bitcoin down but never have serious impact, their effect was more temporary as less expected. War affect anything not just Bitcoin but all aspects of economy but regards to Bitcoin the effects is lesser.

Isn’t the current crash in Bitcoin price just a direct consequence of the series of recent wars in the Middle East and Europe?

[viljy]

If the United States attacks Iran, the price of bitcoin will decrease. It's obvious. Further developments will depend on the scale of the conflict. Bitcoin is a peacetime asset, or a maximum of local conflicts. As soon as a local conflict turns into a large-scale war (over a large territory of several countries, rather than one or two), bitcoin will fall in value. The asset of a war of any scale is gold. But of course, let's hope that it doesn't come to that and the politicians won't cross the Rubicon.

[Alpen]

The devastation in Israel and the losses US regime sustained are clear and the satellite imagery that are slowly coming out despite the heavy censorship is proving how Iran easily crushed the US regime and its terrorist groups like Israel back in June which we already knew considering how they started the war and then they begged for ceasefire.

If Iran has supposedly "crushed" everyone, then why are they moving their gold reserves out of their vaults and shipping them to Moscow?

[pooya87]

If Iran has supposedly "crushed" everyone, then why are they moving their gold reserves out of their vaults and shipping them to Moscow?

Are you trolling me or do you actually believe such nonsense from social media trolls?
I'm genuinely confused about you!

[Italian Panic]

If war became tomorrow bitcoin it's the wonderwall.

Do you want go in the battlefield? I think no, obiuvsly. Ok, at this point the government freeze you bank account and your money and the money of your family and familiar to force you to arruolate. In same case you will also have a seizure of your property, gold and money because it needs for the war effort.

If you have bitcoin, you can escape in another country e you can live with your money not like a refugee but like a person. And tell your governor to send his son to war.

I’ve actually lived through everything you just described—twice. The first time, nobody had even heard of Bitcoin. The second time, crypto existed, but I still had to rely on cold, hard cash (USD) to survive and move. Do you have any other arguments for me?

Yeah Alpen, I don't know where you live, where you from and your necessity. But an huge amount of peoples survived with crypto systems in country where there is war or where there is an high inflation (war with economy).

In the first case you must take a rifle and go in first line to die for no one cause or religion cause (the worst) -- if you exchange your money before the bank account stop, you can excape.

In the second case, you don't die in war but probably you live your life in a very iniqual situation where your money lose the 25% - 50% - 75% in only 1 year (see argentina case). You take your money and exhange with stablecoin to mantaine the value.

[Alpha1999]

geopolitical risk is always a volatility catalyst but i think we need to separate narrative from liquidity mechanics if  conflict escalates and oil spikes the immediate reaction across markets is usually risk off not risk on that means dollar strength equities under pressure and crypto catching initial downside volatility btc has shown relative resilience in some middle east events but the first move is often liquidity driven not thesis driven the strait of hormuz angle is serious if energy inflation resurges  central banks will stay restrictive longer that is not historically bullish for high beta assets in the short term that said  if the conflict drags on and sovereign risk increases btc can pivot from risk asset  to neutral reserve asset in certain regions that’s when you sometimes see the secondary bid regarding $60K as a mining cost floor it is a useful reference but mining cost is dynamic as it adjusts with hash rate difficulty and energy prices in a prolonged macro squeeze with ETF outflows and shrinking liquidity price can absolutely trade below production cost temporarily personally i did be cautious about assuming historical patterns repeat cleanly if war triggers a sharp flush forced liquidations could overshoot fundamentals before any digital gold narrative kicks in.
volatility is opportunity but position sizing will matter more than conviction.