If War Comes Tomorrow: How Will Bitcoin React?

[Davidvictorson]

Crypto might be sheltered a bit from that war and I can imagine the S&P climbing as a result of it (aircraft part sales, missile sales, proofs of concepts etc).

Yeah, I agree with you. From an institutional standpoint, bitcoin would not be allowed to tank because it would spell doom for those corporations with large holdings and therefore what the management would try to do, is to see that they BitcoinETFs are promoted more so that it would not tank. This is what I just expect would happen.

[Berry2d]

Just as war touches all sphere of any economy so it touches Bitcoin, but it's touching always seem more temporary compared to how war affect other aspects of any economy, flash back on the war between Ukraine and Russia, isreal, hamas and Iran all these are war and need that would have bring Bitcoin down but never have serious impact, their effect was more temporary as less expected. War affect anything not just Bitcoin but all aspects of economy but regards to Bitcoin the effects is lesser.

Ideally if war comes its effect on bitcoin is not supposed to be temporary assuming bitcoin follows its original driving force which constant buying and selling, but now political interference stands as a key tool to the increases and fall of its price therefore its effect will turn to be significant.  War is one thing we should not pray for to come as its effect on lives and properties are noticeable based on how dangerous it is when it comes so to avoid had i know the best is to prevent it. There is nothing capability of resisting the effect of war when to comes including economy, if war can be so dangerous to every sector therefore even Bitcoin is not save

[DrBeer]

You're correct because in short-term situations, we've seen the impact on Bitcoin, such as during the Ukraine-Russia war, although it didn't last long for Bitcoin, as it rebounded in a relatively short time. If a war between the US and Iran were to break out, it would have a significant impact on the global economy and could cause problems for global oil prices, so we hope it never happens.

What differentiates a Russia-Ukraine war from an Iran-US war is that an Iran-US war would be on a different scale because Iran is suspected of possessing nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Iran has a stronger military base than Ukraine. Iran can produce its own missiles and also has fighter jet technology. Although still below the United States, Iran could escalate the war to a more devastating scale. The Strait of Hormuz is also a vital global trade route and a crucial route for global oil distribution. If a war breaks out, the global energy supply chain would be disrupted, creating a domino effect across various countries and potentially throwing the world into severe economic chaos. In that situation, I think people would prefer gold as a hedge rather than Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin's value would bottom out because people and institutions would withdraw their money from the market and move it to assets like gold and silver. -CMIIW

If we project Russia's war against Ukraine onto possible US military action against Iran, the picture will be slightly different:
Russia, considered the second strongest army in the world, possessing nuclear weapons, the largest army, and “unparalleled weapons,” attacked Ukraine, which in 2014 (the date of the start of the terrorist attack on Ukraine), had no more than a few tens of thousands of combat-ready soldiers and a destroyed supply system, did not achieve significant success. Continuing its terrorist war against Ukraine in 2022 by launching a full-scale invasion, using all types of weapons and the largest group of troops, it has now lost most of the territories it captured in 2022. The Russian army has deteriorated, as has the country's economy. Not a single objective (which changed constantly in an attempt to save face) has been achieved, and the losses of the occupying army are growing every day. This is despite the fact that the Russian occupation army is several orders of magnitude superior to the Ukrainian armed forces. One of the reasons for Russia's fiasco is its inflated self-esteem and attribution of fantastic advantages to itself. After Israel's strike last year, Iran effectively lost its air defense, which is one of the key echelons of defense against aviation and missile weapons. The US will not conduct a ground operation, as it is not in its interest to do so. And theoretical possession of nuclear weapons does not give any advantage in the event of a massive air/missile strike on military infrastructure and defense industry facilities. So the comparison is not very accurate.

[AYOBA]

Well on my own side of the matter I don’t see such happening, well the thing is that I don’t even no but I feel bitcoin reactions i think it might likely hit the the volatile, but the truth of the matter is that is will be very hard to predict what might happen when it happens eventually, on a long bitcoin has really shown so many resilience i think doing some global conflict, on a second thought I think most investors might want to panic sell I think that could only be what should happen higher.

Honestly the way Bitcoin price be crashing this days it will be very hard for a person to predict what might happen in future markets, the best thing is for we to continue buy like now that Bitcoin is down this is the right time be serious on buying Bitcoin. So that we can achieve huge amounts of profits in future, but my problem with some investors is that they don’t have patience once they see that bitcoin is going down after they have buying some will be panic to sell it back instead of them to be patience and continue hold it till the market recover from the crash.

[pooya87]

It would be too complicated to predict. There is a lot of things that can happen during different phases. If the US regime starts a war with Iran then Iran will start retaliating hard...

We’ve already seen Iran’s "harsh response" during the conflict with Israel—it wasn't much. This regime is only tough when it comes to cracking down on its own people. If the people get their hands on weapons in the chaos of war, it won't be a war against the US or Israel; it will be a full-scale civil war.

The US sponsored terrorists such as al-Qaeda and Komoleh are not "Iranian people", these are categorized as US regime's army since they receive funding and training from US military and under supervision of the US army.

The devastation in Israel and the losses US regime sustained are clear and the satellite imagery that are slowly coming out despite the heavy censorship is proving how Iran easily crushed the US regime and its terrorist groups like Israel back in June which we already knew considering how they started the war and then they begged for ceasefire.

And that was not a full-scale war, it is categorized as fire exchange. In case of full scale war, Iran will show these regimes no mercy and for example not a single US naval unit would remain afloat or operational.

Recently the US regime's highest military official which is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff confessed to this proving once again how fragile and weak the US military is in case of a face off with Iran.
Knowing this, is the exact reason why the US regime has been using its terrorist proxies against Iranian people and then refers to them in its propaganda mouthpieces as "the Iranian people" and whenever the actual Iranians people crush the US Army (takfiri terrorists) they refer to it as "crackdown on people" which won't change anything. These are US sponsored terrorists and US military will be crushed if they attack Iran

Over the past couple of years we have also seen how pathetically weak the US military is too. For example in their Navy we are seeing how the suicide rates is on the rise again and the losses are amassing in their face offs with smaller and much weaker countries such as Yemen where the US military lost dozens of military aircrafts including 3 F-18 superhornets and multiple warships were severely hit that they are still going through repairs and may never become operational again.

[Alpen]

If war became tomorrow bitcoin it's the wonderwall.

Do you want go in the battlefield? I think no, obiuvsly. Ok, at this point the government freeze you bank account and your money and the money of your family and familiar to force you to arruolate. In same case you will also have a seizure of your property, gold and money because it needs for the war effort.

If you have bitcoin, you can escape in another country e you can live with your money not like a refugee but like a person. And tell your governor to send his son to war.

I’ve actually lived through everything you just described—twice. The first time, nobody had even heard of Bitcoin. The second time, crypto existed, but I still had to rely on cold, hard cash (USD) to survive and move. Do you have any other arguments for me?

[Alpen]

Just as war touches all sphere of any economy so it touches Bitcoin, but it's touching always seem more temporary compared to how war affect other aspects of any economy, flash back on the war between Ukraine and Russia, isreal, hamas and Iran all these are war and need that would have bring Bitcoin down but never have serious impact, their effect was more temporary as less expected. War affect anything not just Bitcoin but all aspects of economy but regards to Bitcoin the effects is lesser.

Isn’t the current crash in Bitcoin price just a direct consequence of the series of recent wars in the Middle East and Europe?

[viljy]

If the United States attacks Iran, the price of bitcoin will decrease. It's obvious. Further developments will depend on the scale of the conflict. Bitcoin is a peacetime asset, or a maximum of local conflicts. As soon as a local conflict turns into a large-scale war (over a large territory of several countries, rather than one or two), bitcoin will fall in value. The asset of a war of any scale is gold. But of course, let's hope that it doesn't come to that and the politicians won't cross the Rubicon.

[Alpen]

The devastation in Israel and the losses US regime sustained are clear and the satellite imagery that are slowly coming out despite the heavy censorship is proving how Iran easily crushed the US regime and its terrorist groups like Israel back in June which we already knew considering how they started the war and then they begged for ceasefire.

If Iran has supposedly "crushed" everyone, then why are they moving their gold reserves out of their vaults and shipping them to Moscow?

[pooya87]

If Iran has supposedly "crushed" everyone, then why are they moving their gold reserves out of their vaults and shipping them to Moscow?

Are you trolling me or do you actually believe such nonsense from social media trolls?
I'm genuinely confused about you!

[Italian Panic]

If war became tomorrow bitcoin it's the wonderwall.

Do you want go in the battlefield? I think no, obiuvsly. Ok, at this point the government freeze you bank account and your money and the money of your family and familiar to force you to arruolate. In same case you will also have a seizure of your property, gold and money because it needs for the war effort.

If you have bitcoin, you can escape in another country e you can live with your money not like a refugee but like a person. And tell your governor to send his son to war.

I’ve actually lived through everything you just described—twice. The first time, nobody had even heard of Bitcoin. The second time, crypto existed, but I still had to rely on cold, hard cash (USD) to survive and move. Do you have any other arguments for me?

Yeah Alpen, I don't know where you live, where you from and your necessity. But an huge amount of peoples survived with crypto systems in country where there is war or where there is an high inflation (war with economy).

In the first case you must take a rifle and go in first line to die for no one cause or religion cause (the worst) -- if you exchange your money before the bank account stop, you can excape.

In the second case, you don't die in war but probably you live your life in a very iniqual situation where your money lose the 25% - 50% - 75% in only 1 year (see argentina case). You take your money and exhange with stablecoin to mantaine the value.

[Alpha1999]

geopolitical risk is always a volatility catalyst but i think we need to separate narrative from liquidity mechanics if  conflict escalates and oil spikes the immediate reaction across markets is usually risk off not risk on that means dollar strength equities under pressure and crypto catching initial downside volatility btc has shown relative resilience in some middle east events but the first move is often liquidity driven not thesis driven the strait of hormuz angle is serious if energy inflation resurges  central banks will stay restrictive longer that is not historically bullish for high beta assets in the short term that said  if the conflict drags on and sovereign risk increases btc can pivot from risk asset  to neutral reserve asset in certain regions that’s when you sometimes see the secondary bid regarding $60K as a mining cost floor it is a useful reference but mining cost is dynamic as it adjusts with hash rate difficulty and energy prices in a prolonged macro squeeze with ETF outflows and shrinking liquidity price can absolutely trade below production cost temporarily personally i did be cautious about assuming historical patterns repeat cleanly if war triggers a sharp flush forced liquidations could overshoot fundamentals before any digital gold narrative kicks in.
volatility is opportunity but position sizing will matter more than conviction.

[Itz-prisigold]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Honestly, thinking about Bitcoin if a war starts is kinda weird, I don't know if I am just being too sensitive with the idea of war but truth be told I wouldn’t be thinking about Bitcoin reaction when i am fighting to survive. I would be thinking about how people are affected and how they will survive.

 Sure, Bitcoin might spike or even dip, because I think there is a real connection between geopolitical crisis and Bitcoin market. There might be a scenario where Bitcoin might react very sharply as people will be looking for alternatives to store value, but the human cost would matter more than any charts.

If Iran has supposedly "crushed" everyone, then why are they moving their gold reserves out of their vaults and shipping them to Moscow?

Are you trolling me or do you actually believe such nonsense from social media trolls?
I'm genuinely confused about you!

Everything you said here makes perfect sense, especially about the US using proxies and media to change the narrative just to manipulate people. I think it's high time people should see the truth and real story behind all these “wars” and “conflicts” that are just framed to protect the powerful interests and not to protect the people that are affected.

When it comes to government manipulation, I can personally relate to what you said, especially with what I have seen. We use to see groups of terrorists doing videos with weapons that are far beyond what our security forces have, and it is not a secret that someone powerful and external support is playing a big role behind closed doors. And this particular US government will come online and be acting or saying things as if they really care about others countries. I stopped believing things on socal media most especially when it's coming from the government, because they always craft news that benefits them, just to make themselves look good but they never genuinely care for the people that are affected.

[Smack That Ace]

Crypto might be sheltered a bit from that war and I can imagine the S&P climbing as a result of it (aircraft part sales, missile sales, proofs of concepts etc).

Yeah, I agree with you. From an institutional standpoint, bitcoin would not be allowed to tank because it would spell doom for those corporations with large holdings and therefore what the management would try to do, is to see that they BitcoinETFs are promoted more so that it would not tank. This is what I just expect would happen.

The opposite situation can also occur. Unlike retail investors, institutions and corporations possess enormous amounts of capital. This means that instead of trying to help Bitcoin avoid further declines, they could also put downward pressure on the price to buy in at a better discount. Even retail investors like us know that buying at a low price is a major advantage. I do not think investors who own billions of dollars and can manipulate the market are unaware of this.

Only investors with small capital or those unable to hold for the long term are afraid of Bitcoin sharp declines. Unfortunately, organizations and corporations are not included in that group.

[Hamza2424]

Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—we've seen it before in Middle East conflicts. But $90K is where the rally stalls. Institutional money is fleeing BTC ETFs—fund outflows have been red for a month straight. With liquidity drying up, bears could carve right through that wide support zone from $65K down to $60K. If the operation drags on? Then we're looking at $50K Bitcoin.

My plan is simple—I'll start buying at $60K and keep adding every time we dip below. That's the mining cost floor. Crossing it has always signaled the end of a crypto winter.

Bitcoin did not dumped to $60k yet but to $62k so I guess you have not bought but I suggest you to buy if your plan is to buy for long term because market do not always follow our predictions sometimes it is above or below our predicted price and $62k can be that price you were hoping.

But it is not a financial advice, because there is still room for bitcoin to correct itself because of high selling pressure, this week is not so good but after this week or this month, market might dump more, just an instinct nothing out of the logical just what I have seen happening in every summer.

Well, war is a huge factor too, and the chances are high of it happening but most of the people have already sold, because of the fud in their countries, as USA citizens are not going to sell but the people in arab countries or middle east who are going to be effected by the war will sell or short term trader could sell.

[purple_sparkles]

I think that if a war breaks out, bitcoin will react with a pullback for some period of time, since we have repeatedly seen this pattern before, when there is bad news in the world, bitcoin tends to fall in price. However, considering that military conflicts inevitably lead to inflation, many large players may use the situation and lower prices as an opportunity to enter bitcoin in order to preserve their capital. This, in turn, could eventually lead to further growth.

[DrBeer]

The devastation in Israel and the losses US regime sustained are clear and the satellite imagery that are slowly coming out despite the heavy censorship is proving how Iran easily crushed the US regime and its terrorist groups like Israel back in June which we already knew considering how they started the war and then they begged for ceasefire.

If Iran has supposedly "crushed" everyone, then why are they moving their gold reserves out of their vaults and shipping them to Moscow?

This is such a “cunning multi-step move” in Putin's style - to tell everyone that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine were completely destroyed in the first days of the special military operation,” that more than 25% of Ukraine was captured, and then to lose more than 1,200,000 of his soldiers in four years, lose almost half of the previously captured territories, lose half of the weapons, lose 30% of its strategic aviation,  get hit with sanctions, lose its oil and gas industries, and then whine that “sanctions are good for us, the economy is only getting stronger,” after which it begs North Korea and Iran on its knees to give it weapons and “consumables” in the form of manpower

Iran is buying air defense systems worth €500 million (note: not rubles or reais, but euros from “decaying Europe”) from its partner in terrorism because... the air defense system was destroyed by Israel, which Iran... of course defeated  in reality
Typical cheap propaganda from a totalitarian anti-human regime, a pathetic copy of Russian propaganda 1:1!

A simple question to check - if Iran is so “formidable and powerful”  
, why hasn't it ALREADY destroyed the “pathetic American aircraft carrier fleet, defenseless against the might of Iran,” and all US bases in the Middle East? It will be very interesting to hear the next batch of excuses from supporters of the criminal regime


Well, as for Bitcoin, against the backdrop of a rising dollar, falling gold prices, and new negative forecasts for Bitcoin, a possible strike on Iran is unlikely to affect the value of Bitcoin. It is more likely to affect the price of oil, following Iran's hysterical terrorist strikes “in response” against neighboring oil-producing countries and, for example, attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz. In short, it will affect physical assets (gold and oil), but due to the risks and negativity surrounding Bitcoin recently, there will be no positive impact on it.